Tim Tanggap COVID-19 Imperial College

Tim Respons COVID-19 Imperial College (Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - ICCRT) adalah tim penasihat dan sains yang dibuat oleh Imperial College London untuk mempelajari penyakit koronavirus 2019 dan menasihati pemerintah Britania Raya.^[1] Laporan pertamanya diterbitkan pada tanggal 17 Januari 2020. Tim ini dipimpin oleh Neil Ferguson.^[2]

Laporan

Nomor	Tanggal	Judul
16	2020-04-23	Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.
15	2020-04-17	Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic
Reports presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".
14	2020-04-03	Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective
13	2020-03-30	Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
12	2020-03-26	The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression
11	2020-03-24	Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
10	2020-03-20	Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020
9	2020-03-16	Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
8	2020-03-11	Symptom progression of COVID-19
7	2020-03-09	Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights
6	2020-02-21	Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
5	2020-02-15	Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
4	2020-02-10	Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)
3	2020-01-25	Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
2	2020-01-22	Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
1	2020-01-17	Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

Estimasi

Estimasi untuk 11 negara Eropa per 28 Maret 2020

Jumlah populasi yang terinfeksi
		Prediksi ICCRT[3]			Penghitungan WHO per 29 Maret
Negara	Populasi^[butuh rujukan]	Terinfeksi (95% range)	Terinfeksi (rerata %)	Kasus (est.)	Kasus	Terdekteksi (% pop.)
Austria	8,999,973	0.36%-3.1%	1.1%	99000	8291	0.09%
Belgia	11,579,502	1.3%-9.7%	3.7%	428400	9134	0.08%
Denmark	5,785,741	0.40%-3.1%	1.1%	63600	2201	0.04%
Prancis	65,227,357	1.1%-7.4%	3.0%	1956800	37145	0.06%
Jerman	83,792,987	0.28%-1.8%	0.72%	603300	52547	0.06%
Italia	60,496,082	3.2%-26%	9.8%	5928600	92472	0.15%
Norwegia	5,407,670	0.09%-1.2%	0.41%	22200	3845	0.07%
Spanyol	46,767,543	3.7%-41%	15%	7015100	72248	0.15%
Swedia	10,081,948	0.85%-8.4%	3.1%	312500	3447	0.03%
Swiss	8,637,694	1.3%-7.6%	3.2%	276400	13152	0.15%
Britania Raya	67,803,450	1.2%-5.4%	2.7%	1830700	17093	0.03%

Estimasi untuk dunia

Perkiraan dampak strategi pengendalian selama 250 hari dengan 3 skenario berbeda.^[4]

1. Tidak terkendali
2. Terkendali dengan 0.2 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu
3. Terkendali dengan 1.6 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu

	Skenario #1		Skenario #2		Skenario #3
	Infeksi	Kematian	Infeksi	Kematian	Infeksi	Kematian
Asia Timur & Tenggara	2.117.131.000	15.303.000	92.544.000	442.000	632.619.000	3.315.000
Asia Selatan	1.737.766.000	7.687.000	111.703.000	475.000	629.164.000	2.693.000
Eropa & Asia Tengah	801.770.000	7.276.000	61.578.000	279.000	257.706.000	1.397.000
Amerika Utara	326.079.000	2.981.000	17.730.000	92.000	90.529.000	520.000
Amerika Selatan & Karibia	566.993.000	3.194.000	45.346.000	158.000	186.595.000	729.000
Timur Tengah & Afrika Utara	419.138.000	1.700.000	30.459.000	113.000	152.262.000	594.000
Afrika	1.044.858.000	2.483.000	110.164.000	298.000	454.968.000	1.204.000
Total	7.013.734.000	40.624.000	469.523.000	1.858.000	2.403.843.000	10.452.000

Lihat pula

• Neil Ferguson (epidemiologis)

Referensi

1. Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (2020-03-17). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times (dalam bahasa Inggris). ISSN 0362-4331. Diakses tanggal 2020-03-30. 
2. Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID 32242115. 
3. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (2020-03-30). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). hlm. 35. 
4. "Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London (dalam bahasa Inggris). Diakses tanggal 2020-04-04. 

Pranala luar

• COVID-19 Response Team Reports