2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
County results Congressional district results
Trump
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Harris
50–60%
The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[ 1]
Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Kentucky a safe red state ; the state has voted Republican and by double-digit margins in every presidential election since 2000 .
On election night, Kentucky voted Republican for former president Donald Trump by a wide margin for the third time in a row, with him winning the state by 30.5%, a considerable increase from his 25.9% victory in 2020 and to a lesser extent his 29.8% victory in 2016 . He received about 1.34 million Kentucky votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history. This is the best performance from a Republican candidate for a presidential election in the state's history .
Background
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[ 2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris , who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[ 3] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 . Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[ 4]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary .
Republican primary
The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary .
General election
Candidates
The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot:[ 7]
Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote.[ 8]
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report [ 9]
Solid R
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [ 10]
Solid R
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [ 11]
Safe R
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ /The Hill [ 12]
Safe R
December 14, 2023
CNalysis [ 13]
Solid R
December 30, 2023
CNN [ 14]
Solid R
January 14, 2024
The Economist [ 15]
Safe R
June 12, 2024
538 [ 16]
Solid R
June 11, 2024
RCP [ 17]
Solid R
June 26, 2024
NBC News [ 18]
Safe R
October 6, 2024
Polling
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Robert Kennedy Jr.Independent
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [ 19] [ A]
April 13–21, 2024
402 (LV)
–
52%
35%
13%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Robert Kennedy Jr.Independent
Joe BidenDemocratic
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [ 19] [ A]
April 13–21, 2024
402 (LV)
–
61%
29%
10%
Results
By county
County[ 24]
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Various candidates Other parties
Margin
Total
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Adair
7,643
85.17%
1,257
14.01%
74
0.82%
6,386
71.16%
8,974
Allen
7,824
83.07%
1,505
15.98%
89
0.95%
6,319
67.09%
9,418
Anderson
9,650
73.69%
3,226
24.64%
219
1.67%
6,424
49.05%
13,095
Ballard
3,331
81.48%
697
17.05%
60
1.47%
2,634
64.43%
4,088
Barren
15,019
75.85%
4,565
23.05%
218
1.10%
10,454
52.80%
19,802
Bath
4,041
74.99%
1,278
23.71%
70
1.30%
2,763
51.28%
5,389
Bell
7,831
83.84%
1,419
15.19%
90
0.97%
6,412
68.65%
9,340
Boone
45,650
67.71%
20,601
30.56%
1,170
1.73%
25,049
37.15%
67,421
Bourbon
6,284
65.89%
3,088
32.38%
165
1.73%
3,196
33.51%
9,537
Boyd
14,363
68.56%
6,291
30.03%
297
1.41%
8,072
38.53%
20,951
Boyle
9,159
63.72%
4,990
34.72%
224
1.56%
4,169
29.00%
14,373
Bracken
3,399
81.84%
702
16.90%
52
1.26%
2,697
64.94%
4,153
Breathitt
4,036
78.86%
1,002
19.58%
80
1.56%
3,034
59.28%
5,118
Breckinridge
7,882
78.44%
2,038
20.28%
128
1.28%
5,844
58.16%
10,048
Bullitt
32,299
74.75%
10,280
23.79%
630
1.46%
22,019
50.96%
43,209
Butler
4,905
82.53%
965
16.24%
73
1.23%
3,940
66.29%
5,943
Caldwell
4,860
78.54%
1,256
20.30%
72
1.16%
3,604
58.24%
6,188
Calloway
11,539
68.10%
5,111
30.16%
295
1.74%
6,428
37.94%
16,945
Campbell
28,450
58.86%
18,952
39.21%
932
1.93%
9,498
19.65%
48,334
Carlisle
2,182
83.60%
408
15.63%
20
0.77%
1,774
67.97%
2,610
Carroll
3,014
74.88%
963
23.93%
48
1.19%
2,051
50.95%
4,025
Carter
8,981
78.63%
2,305
20.18%
136
1.19%
6,676
58.45%
11,422
Casey
6,216
87.80%
804
11.36%
60
0.84%
5,412
76.44%
7,080
Christian
14,332
66.13%
7,055
32.56%
284
1.31%
7,277
33.57%
21,671
Clark
11,950
66.82%
5,639
31.53%
296
1.65%
6,311
35.29%
17,885
Clay
6,729
89.41%
692
9.19%
105
1.40%
6,037
80.22%
7,526
Clinton
4,276
87.43%
549
11.22%
66
1.35%
3,727
76.21%
4,891
Crittenden
3,349
83.52%
608
15.16%
53
1.32%
2,741
68.36%
4,010
Cumberland
2,922
84.89%
483
14.03%
37
1.08%
2,439
70.86%
3,442
Daviess
30,705
65.20%
15,673
33.28%
719
1.52%
15,032
31.92%
47,097
Edmonson
5,048
80.81%
1,118
17.90%
81
1.29%
3,930
62.91%
6,247
Elliott
2,335
80.13%
532
18.26%
47
1.61%
1,803
61.87%
2,914
Estill
5,091
80.94%
1,114
17.71%
85
1.35%
3,977
63.23%
6,290
Fayette
57,347
39.84%
83,387
57.93%
3,201
2.23%
-26,040
-18.09%
143,935
Fleming
5,578
79.69%
1,334
19.06%
88
1.25%
4,244
60.63%
7,000
Floyd
12,326
78.64%
3,061
19.53%
286
1.83%
9,265
59.11%
15,673
Franklin
13,246
51.41%
11,996
46.56%
521
2.03%
1,250
4.85%
25,763
Fulton
1,491
69.51%
636
29.65%
18
0.84%
855
39.86%
2,145
Gallatin
3,109
79.37%
761
19.43%
47
1.20%
2,348
59.94%
3,917
Garrard
7,086
79.47%
1,719
19.28%
112
1.25%
5,367
60.19%
8,917
Grant
9,372
81.72%
1,944
16.95%
153
1.33%
7,428
64.77%
11,469
Graves
13,378
80.21%
3,105
18.62%
195
1.17%
10,273
61.59%
16,678
Grayson
9,710
80.28%
2,235
18.48%
150
1.24%
7,475
61.80%
12,095
Green
5,033
85.93%
782
13.35%
42
0.72%
4,251
72.58%
5,857
Greenup
12,961
74.60%
4,181
24.06%
232
1.34%
8,780
50.54%
17,374
Hancock
3,375
72.85%
1,173
25.32%
85
1.83%
2,202
47.53%
4,633
Hardin
30,672
63.79%
16,572
34.47%
838
1.74%
14,100
29.32%
48,082
Harlan
9,109
87.69%
1,199
11.54%
80
0.77%
7,910
76.15%
10,388
Harrison
6,639
73.62%
2,265
25.12%
114
1.26%
4,374
48.50%
9,018
Hart
6,691
79.57%
1,642
19.53%
76
0.90%
5,049
60.04%
8,409
Henderson
12,592
63.96%
6,837
34.73%
259
1.31%
5,755
29.23%
19,688
Henry
6,093
75.46%
1,857
23.00%
124
1.54%
4,236
52.46%
8,074
Hickman
1,656
80.04%
394
19.04%
19
0.92%
1,262
61.00%
2,069
Hopkins
15,361
74.80%
4,916
23.94%
260
1.26%
10,445
50.86%
20,537
Jackson
5,358
90.14%
506
8.51%
80
1.35%
4,852
81.63%
5,944
Jefferson
144,553
40.64%
203,070
57.09%
8,099
2.27%
-58,517
-16.45%
355,722
Jessamine
17,854
66.91%
8,303
31.11%
528
1.98%
9,551
35.80%
26,685
Johnson
8,150
84.57%
1,350
14.01%
137
1.42%
6,800
70.56%
9,637
Kenton
48,444
59.63%
30,859
37.98%
1,938
2.39%
17,585
21.65%
81,241
Knott
4,732
78.67%
1,181
19.63%
102
1.70%
3,551
59.04%
6,015
Knox
11,178
84.82%
1,821
13.82%
180
1.36%
9,357
71.00%
13,179
LaRue
5,773
79.53%
1,389
19.13%
97
1.34%
4,384
60.40%
7,259
Laurel
23,516
84.17%
4,037
14.45%
385
1.38%
19,479
69.72%
27,938
Lawrence
5,464
83.12%
1,044
15.88%
66
1.00%
4,420
67.24%
6,574
Lee
2,227
82.63%
406
15.06%
62
2.31%
1,821
67.57%
2,695
Leslie
3,908
89.67%
382
8.77%
68
1.56%
3,526
80.90%
4,358
Letcher
6,848
81.03%
1,457
17.24%
146
1.73%
5,391
63.79%
8,451
Lewis
4,997
87.34%
666
11.64%
58
1.02%
4,331
75.70%
5,721
Lincoln
8,833
80.05%
2,080
18.85%
121
1.10%
6,753
61.20%
11,034
Livingston
4,021
80.87%
886
17.82%
65
1.31%
3,135
63.05%
4,972
Logan
9,620
76.89%
2,734
21.85%
157
1.26%
6,886
55.04%
12,511
Lyon
3,187
76.12%
950
22.69%
50
1.19%
2,237
53.43%
4,187
McCracken
21,349
66.83%
10,191
31.90%
407
1.27%
11,158
34.93%
31,947
McCreary
5,531
89.04%
641
10.32%
40
0.64%
4,890
78.72%
6,212
McLean
3,578
77.21%
989
21.34%
67
1.45%
2,589
55.87%
4,634
Madison
29,130
64.26%
15,180
33.49%
1,019
2.25%
13,950
30.77%
45,329
Magoffin
4,288
81.18%
909
17.21%
85
1.61%
3,379
63.97%
5,282
Marion
6,473
71.12%
2,513
27.61%
116
1.27%
3,960
43.51%
9,102
Marshall
13,677
77.70%
3,700
21.02%
225
1.28%
9,977
56.68%
17,602
Martin
3,343
91.39%
287
7.85%
28
0.76%
3,056
83.54%
3,658
Mason
5,621
71.14%
2,170
27.46%
110
1.40%
3,451
43.68%
7,901
Meade
10,630
75.27%
3,279
23.22%
214
1.51%
7,351
52.05%
14,123
Menifee
2,563
77.67%
664
20.12%
73
2.21%
1,899
57.55%
3,300
Mercer
8,826
74.47%
2,838
23.95%
187
1.58%
5,988
50.52%
11,851
Metcalfe
4,197
81.86%
884
17.24%
46
0.90%
3,313
64.62%
5,127
Monroe
4,679
88.15%
576
10.85%
53
1.00%
4,103
77.30%
5,308
Montgomery
9,302
72.55%
3,329
25.97%
190
1.48%
5,973
46.58%
12,821
Morgan
4,353
80.94%
939
17.46%
86
1.60%
3,414
63.48%
5,378
Muhlenberg
10,491
76.62%
3,048
22.26%
153
1.12%
7,443
54.36%
13,692
Nelson
16,052
70.24%
6,515
28.51%
285
1.25%
9,537
41.73%
22,852
Nicholas
2,451
73.85%
824
24.83%
44
1.32%
1,627
49.02%
3,319
Ohio
8,679
79.35%
2,094
19.15%
164
1.50%
6,585
60.20%
10,937
Oldham
23,025
60.26%
14,402
37.69%
783
2.05%
8,623
22.57%
38,210
Owen
4,434
80.62%
988
17.96%
78
1.42%
3,446
62.66%
5,500
Owsley
1,625
88.36%
203
11.04%
11
0.60%
1,422
77.32%
1,839
Pendleton
5,593
81.06%
1,210
17.54%
97
1.40%
4,383
63.52%
6,900
Perry
7,913
79.19%
1,966
19.68%
113
1.13%
5,947
59.51%
9,992
Pike
19,684
82.19%
4,025
16.81%
241
1.00%
15,659
65.38%
23,950
Powell
4,092
76.22%
1,174
21.87%
103
1.91%
2,918
54.35%
5,369
Pulaski
26,051
82.09%
5,351
16.86%
333
1.05%
20,700
65.23%
31,735
Robertson
915
79.98%
215
18.79%
14
1.23%
700
61.19%
1,144
Rockcastle
6,635
85.76%
986
12.74%
116
1.50%
5,649
73.02%
7,737
Rowan
6,224
63.04%
3,484
35.29%
165
1.67%
2,740
27.75%
9,873
Russell
7,622
85.71%
1,200
13.49%
71
0.80%
6,422
72.22%
8,893
Scott
18,747
62.97%
10,501
35.27%
521
1.76%
8,246
27.70%
29,769
Shelby
16,356
66.43%
7,822
31.77%
442
1.80%
8,534
34.66%
24,620
Simpson
6,253
71.25%
2,403
27.38%
120
1.37%
3,850
43.87%
8,776
Spencer
8,927
77.76%
2,415
21.04%
138
1.20%
6,512
56.72%
11,480
Taylor
9,523
77.67%
2,576
21.01%
162
1.32%
6,947
56.66%
12,261
Todd
4,009
78.42%
1,051
20.56%
52
1.02%
2,958
57.86%
5,112
Trigg
5,436
75.54%
1,667
23.17%
93
1.29%
3,769
52.37%
7,196
Trimble
3,283
77.27%
923
21.72%
43
1.01%
2,360
55.55%
4,249
Union
4,758
78.54%
1,225
20.22%
75
1.24%
3,533
58.32%
6,058
Warren
34,862
61.28%
21,065
37.03%
964
1.69%
13,797
24.25%
56,891
Washington
4,720
74.44%
1,533
24.18%
88
1.38%
3,187
50.26%
6,341
Wayne
7,203
82.48%
1,444
16.53%
86
0.99%
5,759
65.95%
8,733
Webster
4,339
78.10%
1,153
20.75%
64
1.15%
3,186
57.35%
5,556
Whitley
12,687
84.16%
2,237
14.84%
151
1.00%
10,450
69.32%
15,075
Wolfe
2,163
74.10%
689
23.60%
67
2.30%
1,474
50.50%
2,919
Woodford
8,419
56.15%
6,282
41.90%
292
1.95%
2,137
14.25%
14,993
Totals
1,337,494
64.40%
704,043
33.90%
35,289
1.70%
633,451
30.50%
2,076,826
Swing by county: Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
By congressional district
Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[ 25] [user-generated source ]
Analysis
A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt , Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000 . The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996 .
Kentucky handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 633,451 votes. This election marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Kentuckian vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban , rural , and urban areas.[ 26]
Trump notably expanded his support in Kentucky's Cumberland Plateau region, the Frankfort micropolitan area , and Warren County , home to Bowling Green . In Warren County, Trump received 61.3% of the vote, marking the strongest Republican performance in a presidential election since George W. Bush in 2004 . Additionally, Trump regained some ground in the Democratic strongholds of Jefferson and Fayette counties .
See also
Notes
^ Candidate has suspended campaign
^ a b c Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ Replacement for Butch Ware , Stein's vice presidential nominee.
Partisan clients
References
^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats" . NPR . Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023 .
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision" . CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023 .
^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside" . The Washington Post . Retrieved July 21, 2024 .
^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024" . CNN.com . Retrieved October 8, 2023 .
^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary" . The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024 .
^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary" . The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024 .
^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State" . Kentucky Secretary of State . Retrieved September 8, 2024 .
^ "Potential Candidates" (PDF) . Kentucky Secretary of State . Retrieved September 8, 2024 .
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings" . cookpolitical.com . Cook Political Report . December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Presidential Ratings" . insideelections.com . Inside Elections . April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings" . centerforpolitics.org . University of Virginia Center for Politics . June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 presidential predictions" . elections2024.thehill.com/ . The Hill . December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast" . projects.cnalysis.com/ . CNalysis . December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270" . CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024 .
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model" . The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024 .
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved June 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map" . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024 .
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024" . NBC News .
^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump" . Kennedy24 . May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election" . Emerson Polling .
^ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF) . Public Policy Polling . August 10, 2023.
^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient" . co/efficient . May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
^ "2024 General Election Certification as Amended on December 9th 2024" (PDF) . elect.ky.gov . Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2024 .
^ "2024 Presidential General Election Results - Kentucky" .
^ "2024 Pres by CD" .
^ "Kentucky Presidential Election Results" . The New York Times . November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved November 12, 2024 .
U.S. President U.S. Senate U.S. House (election ratings ) Governors Attorneys general Secretaries of state State treasurers Judicial Other statewide elections
Alabama
Arizona
Delaware
Georgia
Montana
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
State legislative
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Special elections
Mayors
Alexandria, VA
Anchorage, AK
Austin, TX
Bakersfield, CA
Baltimore, MD
Baton Rouge, LA
Bridgeport, CT
Burlington, VT
Cheyenne, WY
El Paso, TX
Fayetteville, AR
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Fresno, CA
Grand Rapids, MI
Honolulu, HI
Huntington, WV
Huntsville, AL
Irvine, CA
Las Vegas, NV
Lubbock, TX
Mesa, AZ
Miami-Dade County, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Phoenix, AZ
Portland, OR
Pueblo, CO
Raleigh, NC
Richmond, VA
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
Salt Lake County, UT
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Jose, CA
Stockton, CA
Tulsa, OK
Virginia Beach, VA
Wilmington, DE
Local
Alameda County, CA (recall)
Chicago, IL
Lee County, AL
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles County, CA
Maricopa County, AZ
New Castle County, DE
Multnomah County, OR
Orange County, CA
Portland, OR
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo County, CA
Tulsa, OK
Washington, D.C.
States and territories Ballot measures
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
California
Colorado
District of Columbia
Florida
Hawaii
Idaho
Kentucky
Maine
Maryland
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Puerto Rico
South Dakota
Wyoming