2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

November 5, 2024
Turnout	Unreleased[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,966,865 1,056,265 Percentage 64.19% 34.47%
County results Congressional district results State Senate district results State House district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[2]

Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.

On election night, Tennessee voted Republican for former president Donald Trump by a wide margin for the third time in a row, with him winning the state by 29.7%, a considerable increase from his 23.2% victory in 2020 and to a lesser extent his 26% victory in 2016.^[3] He received more than 1.96 million Tennessee votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.^[4] This is the best performance from a Republican candidate for a presidential election in Tennessee since Richard Nixon's 37.9% victory 1972.

Background

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.^[5] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[6] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.^[7] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot.^[8] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   80–90%
    >90%

Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024^[9]^[10]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	122,803	92.14%	63		63
Uncommitted	10,475	7.86%	0		0
Total:	133,278	100.00%	63	7	70

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   60–70%
    70–80%
    80–90%
    >90%

Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024^[11]^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	446,850	77.33%	58	0	58
Nikki Haley	112,958	19.55%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	7,947	1.38%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	4,884	0.85%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,874	0.32%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,714	0.30%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	722	0.13%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	533	0.09%	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	352	0.06%	0	0	0
Total:	577,834	100.00%	58	0	58

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[13]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[14]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis[17]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN[18]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist[19]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538[3]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP[20]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News[21]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
ActiVote[22]	October 5−28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	62%	38%	–
ActiVote[23]	September 24 – October 16, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	62%	38%	–
ActiVote[24]	July 26 – August 29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	37%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research[25][A]	September 27 – October 8, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	54%	35%	5%	–	1%	1%	4%
		971 (LV)		56%	35%	5%	–	0%	1%	3%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	59%	35%	6%
Targoz Market Research[27][A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	1,139 (RV)	± 2.8%	60%	31%	9%
		974 (LV)		55%	31%	14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28]	February 29 – March 3, 2024	216 (RV)	–	58%	34%	8%[b]
		201 (LV)		59%	34%	7%[b]
Targoz Market Research[29][A]	December 14–28, 2023	1,139 (RV)	± 2.7%	61%	30%	9%
		929 (LV)		63%	31%	5%
Siena College[30][C]	November 5–10, 2023	805 (A)	± 3.8%	49%	20%	31%
Targoz Market Research[31][A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,075 (RV)	± 2.8%	59%	29%	12%
		835 (LV)		61%	30%	9%
Emerson College[32]	October 1–4, 2023	410 (RV)	± 4.8%	55%	22%	23%
Targoz Market Research[33][A]	June 14–22, 2023	1,120 (RV)	± 2.9%	51%	32%	17%
		1,046 (LV)		54%	34%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[34]	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	42%	26%	31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research[35][A]	June 20 – July 1, 2024	1,152 (RV)	± 2.8%	55%	28%	7%	10%
		962 (LV)		58%	28%	5%	9%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[36]	April 26 – May 9, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.4%	47%	29%	8%	16%[c]
Targoz Market Research[27][A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	1,139 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	25%	16%	11%
		974 (LV)		47%	28%	15%	10%
Targoz Market Research[29][A]	December 14–28, 2023	1,187 (RV)	± 2.7%	48%	23%	17%	12%
		929 (LV)		51%	25%	16%	8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[37]	November 14 – December 2, 2023	1,005 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	26%	12%	17%
Targoz Market Research[31][A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,164 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	18%	22%	14%
		872 (LV)		48%	23%	19%	10%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Joe Manchin Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research[31][A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,118 (RV)	± 2.8%	52%	21%	5%	22%
		844 (LV)		53%	23%	6%	18%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	52%	35%	13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	55%	31%	14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research[33][A]	June 14–22, 2023	1,120 (RV)	± 2.9%	46%	32%	22%
		977 (LV)		52%	36%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[34]	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	33%	24%	40%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee^[38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,966,865	64.19%	+3.53%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,056,265	34.47%	−2.98%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	21,535	0.70%	N/A
	Green	Jill Stein[d] Samson Kpadenou[e]	8,967	0.29%	+0.14%
	Independent	Jay Bowman De Bowman	5,865	0.19%	N/A
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz[d] Karina Garcia	3,457	0.11%	+0.03%
	Socialist Workers	Rachele Fruit[d] Dennis Richter	988	0.03%	−0.05%
Total votes			3,063,942	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

County[39]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Anderson	24,582	67.26%	11,525	31.53%	441	1.21%	13,057	35.73%	36,548
Bedford	15,772	78.51%	4,122	20.52%	196	0.97%	11,650	57.99%	20,090
Benton	5,886	81.07%	1,317	18.14%	57	0.79%	4,569	62.93%	7,260
Bledsoe	5,254	84.87%	891	14.39%	46	0.74%	4,363	70.48%	6,191
Blount	50,699	73.24%	17,664	25.52%	861	1.24%	33,035	47.72%	69,224
Bradley	38,836	78.86%	9,852	20.01%	558	1.13%	28,984	58.85%	49,246
Campbell	13,115	84.46%	2,305	14.84%	108	0.70%	10,810	69.62%	15,528
Cannon	5,682	82.58%	1,132	16.45%	67	0.97%	4,550	66.13%	6,881
Carroll	9,547	80.35%	2,233	18.79%	102	0.86%	7,314	61.56%	11,882
Carter	20,167	81.15%	4,454	17.92%	231	0.93%	15,713	63.23%	24,852
Cheatham	14,987	72.26%	5,464	26.34%	290	1.40%	9,523	45.92%	20,741
Chester	6,206	81.91%	1,286	16.97%	85	1.12%	4,920	64.94%	7,577
Claiborne	11,463	84.70%	1,971	14.56%	100	0.74%	9,492	70.14%	13,534
Clay	3,117	82.90%	614	16.33%	29	0.77%	2,503	66.57%	3,760
Cocke	13,105	83.67%	2,415	15.42%	143	0.91%	10,690	68.25%	15,663
Coffee	19,174	76.91%	5,440	21.82%	318	1.27%	13,734	55.09%	24,932
Crockett	4,674	78.94%	1,196	20.20%	51	0.86%	3,478	58.74%	5,921
Cumberland	27,399	79.09%	6,996	20.20%	247	0.71%	20,403	58.89%	34,642
Davidson	102,256	35.26%	181,862	62.70%	5,918	2.04%	−79,606	−27.44%	290,036
Decatur	4,596	84.08%	819	14.98%	51	0.94%	3,777	69.10%	5,466
DeKalb	7,599	80.87%	1,706	18.16%	91	0.97%	5,893	62.71%	9,396
Dickson	19,002	75.39%	5,913	23.46%	289	1.15%	13,089	51.93%	25,204
Dyer	11,603	80.61%	2,707	18.81%	84	0.58%	8,896	61.80%	14,394
Fayette	16,756	70.71%	6,720	28.36%	220	0.93%	10,036	42.35%	23,696
Fentress	8,555	87.56%	1,149	11.76%	67	0.68%	7,406	75.80%	9,771
Franklin	15,016	76.12%	4,529	22.96%	183	0.92%	10,487	53.16%	19,728
Gibson	16,346	75.51%	5,100	23.56%	202	0.93%	11,246	51.95%	21,648
Giles	10,394	77.07%	2,974	22.05%	119	0.88%	7,420	55.02%	13,487
Grainger	9,630	86.52%	1,432	12.87%	68	0.61%	8,198	73.65%	11,130
Greene	25,586	82.28%	5,145	16.55%	364	1.17%	20,441	65.73%	31,095
Grundy	5,334	84.29%	948	14.98%	46	0.73%	4,386	69.31%	6,328
Hamblen	20,154	79.03%	5,132	20.12%	215	0.85%	15,022	58.91%	25,501
Hamilton	97,195	55.72%	74,437	42.67%	2,806	1.61%	22,758	13.05%	174,438
Hancock	2,558	87.96%	334	11.49%	16	0.55%	2,224	76.47%	2,908
Hardeman	5,793	61.63%	3,527	37.53%	79	0.84%	2,266	24.10%	9,399
Hardin	10,293	85.11%	1,704	14.09%	97	0.80%	8,589	71.02%	12,094
Hawkins	22,066	84.01%	3,987	15.18%	213	0.81%	18,079	68.83%	26,266
Haywood	3,286	49.40%	3,311	49.77%	55	0.83%	−25	−0.37%	6,652
Henderson	10,083	83.70%	1,902	15.79%	62	0.51%	8,181	67.91%	12,047
Henry	11,629	77.14%	3,286	21.80%	161	1.06%	8,343	55.34%	15,076
Hickman	8,265	80.17%	1,968	19.09%	76	0.74%	6,297	61.08%	10,309
Houston	2,989	78.45%	773	20.29%	48	1.26%	2,216	58.16%	3,810
Humphreys	6,400	77.44%	1,767	21.38%	97	1.18%	4,633	56.06%	8,264
Jackson	4,586	80.80%	1,040	18.32%	50	0.88%	3,546	62.48%	5,676
Jefferson	21,068	81.61%	4,503	17.44%	244	0.95%	16,565	64.17%	25,815
Johnson	6,829	84.29%	1,212	14.96%	61	0.75%	5,617	69.33%	8,102
Knox	130,815	58.96%	87,516	39.45%	3,533	1.59%	43,299	19.51%	221,864
Lake	1,493	77.00%	429	22.12%	17	0.88%	1,064	54.88%	1,939
Lauderdale	5,633	68.15%	2,571	31.10%	62	0.75%	3,062	37.05%	8,266
Lawrence	16,429	84.11%	2,939	15.05%	165	0.84%	13,490	69.06%	19,533
Lewis	4,852	82.38%	991	16.83%	47	0.79%	3,861	65.55%	5,890
Lincoln	13,208	81.89%	2,782	17.25%	138	0.86%	10,426	64.64%	16,128
Loudon	25,226	75.96%	7,625	22.96%	358	1.08%	17,601	53.00%	33,209
Macon	8,958	86.69%	1,277	12.36%	98	0.95%	7,681	74.33%	10,333
Madison	23,385	58.52%	16,115	40.32%	464	1.16%	7,270	18.20%	39,964
Marion	10,788	77.43%	3,026	21.72%	119	0.85%	7,762	55.71%	13,933
Marshall	12,426	77.85%	3,390	21.24%	146	0.91%	9,036	56.61%	15,962
Maury	37,376	71.75%	14,145	27.15%	569	1.10%	23,231	44.60%	52,090
McMinn	19,673	81.73%	4,207	17.48%	192	0.79%	15,466	64.25%	24,072
McNairy	9,437	83.76%	1,727	15.33%	103	0.91%	7,710	68.43%	11,267
Meigs	5,085	83.37%	968	15.87%	46	0.76%	4,117	67.50%	6,099
Monroe	18,526	82.99%	3,608	16.16%	189	0.85%	14,918	66.83%	22,323
Montgomery	47,795	58.46%	32,736	40.04%	1,224	1.50%	15,059	18.42%	81,755
Moore	3,060	83.74%	542	14.83%	52	1.43%	2,518	68.91%	3,654
Morgan	7,427	86.76%	1,054	12.31%	79	0.93%	6,373	74.45%	8,560
Obion	10,596	82.14%	2,221	17.22%	83	0.64%	8,375	64.92%	12,900
Overton	9,042	81.69%	1,931	17.45%	96	0.86%	7,111	64.24%	11,069
Perry	3,139	84.47%	558	15.02%	19	0.51%	2,581	69.45%	3,716
Pickett	2,441	82.63%	487	16.49%	26	0.88%	1,954	66.14%	2,954
Polk	7,302	83.67%	1,356	15.54%	69	0.79%	5,946	68.13%	8,727
Putnam	25,554	73.14%	8,991	25.73%	394	1.13%	16,563	47.41%	34,939
Rhea	11,974	82.90%	2,312	16.01%	158	1.09%	9,662	66.89%	14,444
Roane	21,011	76.65%	6,073	22.15%	328	1.20%	14,938	54.50%	27,412
Robertson	26,260	74.88%	8,428	24.03%	382	1.09%	17,832	50.85%	35,070
Rutherford	88,811	60.15%	56,656	38.37%	2,189	1.48%	32,155	21.78%	147,656
Scott	8,608	89.62%	942	9.81%	55	0.57%	7,666	79.81%	9,605
Sequatchie	6,522	82.66%	1,292	16.38%	76	0.96%	5,230	66.28%	7,890
Sevier	35,207	80.07%	8,322	18.93%	441	1.00%	26,885	61.14%	43,970
Shelby	118,917	36.42%	201,759	61.80%	5,821	1.78%	−82,842	−25.38%	326,497
Smith	7,655	81.99%	1,595	17.08%	86	0.93%	6,060	64.91%	9,336
Stewart	5,389	81.40%	1,160	17.52%	71	1.08%	4,229	63.88%	6,620
Sullivan	58,154	76.98%	16,624	22.01%	763	1.01%	41,530	54.97%	75,541
Sumner	68,767	70.34%	27,874	28.51%	1,120	1.15%	40,893	41.83%	97,761
Tipton	20,303	75.95%	6,178	23.11%	252	0.94%	14,125	52.84%	26,733
Trousdale	3,359	79.02%	856	20.14%	36	0.84%	2,503	58.88%	4,251
Unicoi	6,876	80.51%	1,578	18.48%	87	1.01%	5,298	62.03%	8,541
Union	7,384	85.18%	1,216	14.03%	69	0.79%	6,168	71.15%	8,669
Van Buren	2,718	83.25%	524	16.05%	23	0.70%	2,194	67.20%	3,265
Warren	13,192	77.53%	3,647	21.43%	176	1.04%	9,545	56.10%	17,015
Washington	42,299	69.08%	18,131	29.61%	804	1.31%	24,168	39.47%	61,234
Wayne	6,016	88.07%	762	11.16%	53	0.77%	5,254	76.91%	6,831
Weakley	10,541	78.70%	2,725	20.34%	128	0.96%	7,816	58.36%	13,394
White	10,717	82.88%	2,105	16.28%	109	0.84%	8,612	66.60%	12,931
Williamson	94,562	65.36%	47,695	32.97%	2,411	1.67%	46,867	32.39%	144,668
Wilson	56,425	69.44%	23,855	29.36%	974	1.20%	32,570	40.08%	81,254
Totals	1,966,865	64.19%	1,056,265	34.47%	40,812	1.34%	910,600	29.72%	3,063,942

Swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Trend^[f] relative to the state by county^{[inconsistent]}

Legend

•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
    Democratic — +0-2.5%
    No trend
    Republican — +0-2.5%
    Republican — +2.5-5%

By congressional district

Trump won 8 of 9 congressional districts.^[40]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	78.41%	20.57%	Diana Harshbarger
2nd	66.24%	32.38%	Tim Burchett
3rd	67.29%	31.40%	Chuck Fleischmann
4th	71.19%	27.61%	Scott DesJarlais
5th	58.22%	40.18%	Andy Ogles
6th	66.96%	31.80%	John W. Rose
7th	60.31%	38.24%	Mark E. Green
8th	70.25%	28.63%	David Kustoff
9th	27.77%	70.44%	Steve Cohen

Analysis

A fast-growing Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Tennessee handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 910,600 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida, which are also in the South. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennesseean vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.^[41]

Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in the Democratic strongholds of Shelby and Davidson Counties, respectively home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in moderately-red Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and safely-red Knox County (Knoxville).

Trump also came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate and congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1972.

By Grand Division

Results by Grand Division
Trump:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2020, Trump had won it with 49.43% to Biden's 49.06%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.^[42][43]

Grand Division	Trump	Harris
West	53.36%	45.25%
Middle	62.84%	35.75%
East	71.28%	27.51%

Davidson County

Results by precinct in Davidson County^[44]

  Harris

•   40–50%
    50–60%
    60–70%
    70–80%
•   80–90%
•   ≥90%

  Trump

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   ≥90%

  No data

Davidson County, home to Tennessee's state capital Nashville, voted decisively for Kamala Harris, who received 62.7% of the vote. The county has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Notably, Donald Trump performed surprisingly well in some of Nashville's urban core. He lost Downtown Nashville, home to landmarks like Broadway and the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum, by only 7.8%—a significant improvement from his 24.6% loss there in 2020.^[45][46]

Trump's strongest performance in Davidson County came from its rural northern areas, such as Joelton. He also won in parts of southern Davidson County, including suburban areas like Forest Hills and Belle Meade.^[47][44]

Knox County

Results by precinct in Knox County^[44]

  Trump

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

  Harris

•   40–50%
    50–60%
    60–70%
    70–80%
•   80–90%
•   ≥90%

  Tie

  No data

Knox County, home to Knoxville, voted comfortably for Donald Trump, who received 59.0% of the vote. This result continues the county’s long-standing Republican tradition, as it has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940. Despite this Republican stronghold, Kamala Harris performed notably well in Knoxville’s urban core, winning the city by an 11.4% margin. However, this was a decline from Joe Biden’s 16% victory in the city during the 2020 election.^[48]

Donald Trump's victory in Knox County was largely driven by his overwhelming support in the suburban and rural areas, which offset Harris’s success in the city. Outside of Knoxville, Trump dominated nearly all precincts, with his strongest showing in the rural northern parts of the county. These regions played a pivotal role in securing his comfortable win.

Shelby County

Results by precinct in Shelby County^[44]

  Harris

•   40–50%
    50–60%
    60–70%
    70–80%
•   80–90%
•   ≥90%

  Trump

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  No data

Shelby County, home to Memphis, and the most populated county in Tennessee voted decisively for Kamala Harris, who received 61.8% of the vote. The county has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Harris’s win in the county was driven largely by the predominantly Black, Democratic-leaning population of Memphis, which forms the county's urban core.

Donald Trump’s performance in Shelby County, however, showed a stark demographic and geographical divide. His strongest support came from the county's eastern suburban areas, including Bartlett, Collierville, and Germantown. These predominantly white, suburban communities often lean more conservative, reflecting national trends. Additionally, Trump found success in northern parts of the county, such as Millington, further illustrating the political diversity within Shelby County's electorate.^[49]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Tennessee
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
• 2024 Tennessee elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Another candidate" with 4%
3. "Some other candidate" with 8%
4. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
5. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
6. Trend is the swing in county margins relative to the national swing in the popular vote

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
3. Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

References

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