2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii

November 5, 2024
Turnout	50.3%
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 313,044 193,661 Percentage 60.59% 37.48%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   90–100% No Data
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its own unique culture separated from the mainland and is plurality-Asian American. Although Hawaii has been somewhat drifting away from the Democratic Party since 2008, Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood, in 1972 and 1984.

Although Harris won the state comfortably, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, received more than 35% of the vote for the first time since 2004, narrowing the margin by over 6% compared to 2020. It was also the first time since that election in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties.

Primary elections

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses

The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.

Hawaii Democratic caucus, March 6, 2024^[2]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	1,032	66.0%	15		15
Uncommitted	455	29.1%	7		7
Marianne Williamson	50	3.2%	0
Dean Phillips	15	1.0%	0
Jason Palmer	6	0.4%	0
Armando Perez-Serrato	5	0.3%	0
Total:	1,563	100.00%	22	9	31

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 Hawaii Republican presidential caucuses

The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Hawaii Republican caucuses, March 12, 2024^[3]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	4,348	97.08%	19	0	19
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	68	1.52%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	26	0.58%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	25	0.56%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	8	0.18%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	2	0.04%	0	0	0
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)	1	0.02%	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	1	0.02%	0	0	0
Total:	4,479	100.00%	19	0	19

General election

The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful.^[4]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[5]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[6]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis[9]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN[10]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist[11]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538[12]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP[13]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News[14]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[15][A]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	57%	38%	5%
John Zogby Strategies[16][B]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	55%	34%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[15][A]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	42%	34%	8%	3%	0%	13%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[16][B]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	42%	48%	10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[16][B]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	50%	27%	23%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	313,044	60.59	−3.14
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	193,661	37.48	+3.21
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	4,387	0.85	+0.18
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	2,733	0.53	−0.43
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	1,940	0.38	N/A
	American Solidarity	Peter Sonski Lauren Onak	936	0.18	N/A
Total votes			516,701	100.00	N/A

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Hawaii	52,163	62.98%	28,748	34.71%	1,912	2.31%	23,415	28.27%	82,823
Honolulu	204,301	59.93%	130,489	38.28%	6,131	1.79%	73,812	21.65%	340,921
Kalawao	15	83.33%	3	16.67%	0	0.00%	12	66.66%	18
Kauai	17,675	58.79%	11,803	39.26%	586	1.95%	5,872	19.53%	30,064
Maui	38,905	61.86%	22,621	35.97%	1,367	2.17%	16,284	25.89%	62,893
Totals	313,044	60.59%	193,661	37.48%	9,996	1.93%	119,383	23.11%	516,701

Swing by county:

  Republican — +5-7.5%

  Republican — +7.5-10%

  Republican — +10-12.5%

  Republican — +12.5-15%

  Republican — +>15%

By congressional district

Harris won both congressional districts.^[18]

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	61.50%	36.77%	Ed Case
2nd	59.74%	38.14%	Jill Tokuda

Analysis

Despite still voting overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Hawaii saw a noticeable shift to the right, with every county swinging by over 5%. Trump's margin was the best out of his three runs, having increased in every consecutive election. Trump's increased success in Hawaii was attributed by local political scientists to Hawaii's more moderate political nature and reluctance to embrace progressivism (Hawaii voted 44% against legalizing gay marriage at the same time that it gave Trump only 39% of the vote). It was also attributed to Hawaii's extremely high cost of living, with former blue-collar plantation households in Western Oahu posting some of Trump's strongest gains in the state.^[19] As the only majority-Asian state in the union, Hawaii also was affected by the large national shift to the right among Asian-American voters,^[20][21] especially Filipino Americans, who represent one of the largest Asian groups in Hawaii.^[22] Filipino Americans shifted to Trump in part cause of concern of China's Navy being close to the Philippines in the South China Sea and have recently viewed Biden and the Democratic Party being ineffective against China's aggression.^[23]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Hawaii
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. "Hawaii Democratic Caucus Results". The New York Times. March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
3. "Hawaii Presidential Caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
4. Pellish, Aaron (April 20, 2024). "RFK Jr. will appear on Hawaii ballot, third state to include him". CNN. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
5. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
6. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
11. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
12. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
13. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
14. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
15. "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
16. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
17. "GENERAL ELECTION 2024 - Statewide Summary - November 5, 2024" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 13, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
18. "Statement of Vote" (PDF). elections.hawaii.gov. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 8, 2025.
19. "Trump support grows in blue state Hawaii". www.hawaiitribune-herald.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
20. "Here's Why Asian Americans Shifted Right". Manhattan Institute. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
21. "Asian Americans favored Harris but shifted right by 5 points". NBC News. November 6, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
22. "Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada?". thediplomat.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
23. "Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada?". thediplomat.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.