2024 United States Senate election in Washington

Not to be confused with 2024 Washington State Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Washington

November 5, 2024

Nominee Maria Cantwell Raul Garcia Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,252,577 1,549,187 Percentage 59.09% 40.64%

County results Congressional district results Cantwell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Maria Cantwell Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning over Republican physician Raul Garcia.

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

• Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Eliminated in primary

• Paul Giesick, blue collar worker^[2]

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

• Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate^[2]
• Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022^[2]
• Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016^[2]
• Mel Ram, private investigator^[2]

Declined

• John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)^[4]

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

• Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate^[2]
• Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate^[2]
• Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate^[2]
• David Tilton (Independent), data analyst^[2]

Endorsements

Maria Cantwell (D)

Organizations

• American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)^[5]
• EMILY's List^[6]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[7]
• Humane Society Legislative Fund^[8]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[9]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[10]
• J Street PAC^[11]
• League of Conservation Voters^[12]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[13]
• National Women's Political Caucus^[14]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[15]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[16]

Labor unions

• National Education Association^[17]
• Washington State Labor Council^[18]

Newspapers

• The Seattle Times^[19]
• The Stranger^[20]

Tribes

• Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation^[21]

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

• Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)^[22]

Statewide officials

• Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)^[23]
• Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)^[23]
• Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)^[23]
• Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)^[23]

State legislators

• Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)^[23]

Local officials

• Bruce Dammeier, Pierce County Executive^[23]

Organizations

• Mainstream Republicans of Washington^[24]

Political parties

• Washington State Republican Party^[25]
• Spokane County Republican Party^[26]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D)	$11,651,974	$5,128,836	$7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R)	$558,646	$394,077	$164,568
Isaac Holyk (R)	$6,846	$7,278	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Results

Results by county:

  Cantwell—70–80%

  Cantwell—50–60%

  Cantwell—40–50%

  Cantwell—30–40%

  Garcia—30–40%

  Garcia—40–50%

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties.^[28]

Blanket primary results^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)	1,114,327	57.18%
	Republican	Raul Garcia	431,182	22.13%
	Republican	Scott Nazarino	111,386	5.72%
	Republican	Isaac Holyk	110,701	5.68%
	Republican	Mel Ram	86,956	4.46%
	Independent	Chuck Jackson	21,055	1.08%
	Independent	David Tilton	17,561	0.90%
	Democratic	Paul Giesick	17,433	0.89%
	Republican	Goodspaceguy	16,826	0.86%
	Independent	Thor Amundson	10,587	0.54%
	Socialist Workers	Henry Dennison	7,840	0.40%
	Write-in		2,862	0.15%
Total votes			1,948,716	100.0%

General election

Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Washington debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Republican
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Maria Cantwell	Raul Garcia
1	Oct. 8, 2024	Gonzaga University KSPS-TV The Black Lens The Spokesman-Review Washington State Debate Coalition	Orion Donovan Smith	TVW[30]	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[31]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[32]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[34]	Safe D	June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[35]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis[36]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[37]	Solid D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[38]	Safe D	October 23, 2024
538[39]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Maria Cantwell (D)	Raul Garcia (R)	Undecided [a]	Margin
270ToWin[40]	October 20 - November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	55.5%	38.0%	6.5%	Cantwell +17.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[41]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	57.8%	38.9%	3.3%	Cantwell +18.9%
Average			56.7%	38.5%	4.8%	Cantwell +18.2%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Raul Garcia (R)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.[42]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	58%	38%	–	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[43][A]	October 16–17, 2024	571 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%	38%	–	9%
SurveyUSA[44][B]	October 9–14, 2024	703 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	32%	–	13%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[45]	September 3–6, 2024	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	55%	33%	4%[c]	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[46][A]	July 24–25, 2024	581 (LV)	± 4.0%	55%	32%	6%[d]	7%
SurveyUSA[47][B]	July 10–13, 2024	564 (LV)	± 5.1%	58%	37%	–	5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[48][A]	May 15–16, 2024	615 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	38%	–	9%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[49]	May 13–16, 2024	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	30%	1%[e]	30%
Echelon Insights (R)[50][C]	March 18–21, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.7%	44%	36%	–	19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][A]	February 13–14, 2024	789 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	37%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][A]	November 14–15, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	51%	38%	–	11%
Elway Research[53][D]	October 30 – November 3, 2023	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	23%	9%[f]	25%

Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[54][A]	June 7–8, 2023	773 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	37%	11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[55][A]	March 7–8, 2023	874 (LV)	± 3.3%	50%	35%	14%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Washington^[56]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)	2,252,577	59.09%	+0.66%
	Republican	Raul Garcia	1,549,187	40.64%	−0.93%
	Write-in		10,627	0.28%	N/A
Total votes			3,812,391	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County[57] Maria Cantwell Democratic Raul Garcia Republican Write-In Total % # % # % # Adams 31.44% 1,627 67.71% 3,504 0.85% 44 5,175 Asotin 39.70% 4,386 59.98% 6,627 0.33% 36 11,049 Benton 40.52% 39,595 59.16% 57,804 0.32% 313 97,712 Chelan 45.89% 18,884 53.87% 22,168 0.23% 96 41,148 Clallam 53.96% 25,487 45.86% 21,663 0.18% 83 47,233 Clark 53.57% 142,669 46.08% 122,712 0.34% 918 266,299 Columbia 30.81% 745 68.57% 1,658 0.62% 15 2,418 Cowlitz 42.42% 24,329 57.28% 32,854 0.30% 171 57,354 Douglas 38.32% 7,892 61.37% 12,637 0.31% 64 20,593 Ferry 35.80% 1,431 64.00% 2,558 0.20% 8 3,997 Franklin 40.71% 12,538 59.13% 18,212 0.16% 50 30,800 Garfield 30.82% 413 69.10% 926 0.07% 1 1,340 Grant 33.20% 11,664 66.59% 23,390 0.21% 74 35,128 Grays Harbor 48.90% 18,061 50.82% 18,772 0.28% 105 36,938 Island 57.28% 29,216 42.50% 21,677 0.22% 114 51,007 Jefferson 72.28% 17,621 27,52% 6,708 0.20% 49 24,378 King 75.06% 828,204 24.64% 271,832 0.31% 3,370 1,103,406 Kitsap 59.55% 91,348 40.24% 61,734 0.21% 327 153,409 Kittitas 42.98% 11,028 56.73% 14,556 0.28% 73 25,657 Klickitat 45.42% 5,962 54.28% 7,125 0.30% 40 13,127 Lewis 36.10% 15,912 63.60% 28,030 0.30% 132 44,074 Lincoln 26.96% 1,889 72.77% 5,099 0.27% 19 7,007 Mason 49.39% 17,593 50.15% 17,865 0.45% 162 35,620 Okanogan 44.81% 9,022 54.93% 11,060 0.25% 51 20,133 Pacific 52.46% 7,273 47.26% 6,552 0.27% 38 13,863 Pend Oreille 32.67% 2,721 67.05% 5,585 0.28% 23 8,329 Pierce 54.96% 235,829 44.83% 192,366 0.21% 899 429,094 San Juan 74.38% 9,466 25.26% 3,214 0.36% 46 12,726 Skagit 53.82% 34,472 45.96% 29,438 0.22% 143 64,053 Skamania 45.28% 3,206 54.44% 3,855 0.28% 20 7,081 Snohomish 58.85% 239,059 40.90% 166,117 0.25% 1,020 406,196 Spokane 47.86% 132,644 51.84% 143,680 0.30% 842 277,166 Stevens 29.59% 8,138 70.06% 19,270 0.35% 96 27,504 Thurston 59.92% 96,086 39.79% 63,796 0.29% 462 160,344 Wahkiakum 44.18% 1,305 55.55% 1,641 0.27% 8 2,954 Walla Walla 47.06% 13,621 52.83% 15,293 0.11% 32 28,946 Whatcom 61.53% 83,355 38.26% 51,836 0.21% 290 135,481 Whitman 54.62% 10,698 45.21% 8,856 0.17% 34 19,588 Yakima 44.24% 37,188 55.34% 46,517 0.43% 359 84,064 Total 59.09% 2,252,577 40.64% 1,549,187 0.28% 10,627 3,812,391

By congressional district

Cantwell won seven of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Garcia, including one that elected a Democrat.^[58]

District	Cantwell	Garcia	Representative
1st	63%	37%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	61%	39%	Rick Larsen
3rd	49%	50%	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th	41%	58%	Dan Newhouse
5th	45%	54%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
			Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th	59%	41%	Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
			Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th	86%	13%	Pramila Jayapal
8th	52%	48%	Kim Schrier
9th	71%	28%	Adam Smith
10th	59%	41%	Marilyn Strickland

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
4. "Another candidate" with 6%
5. "Someone else" with 1%
6. "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
2. Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
3. Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
4. Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com

References

1. Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
2. "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
3. Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
4. Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. [Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
5. "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
6. Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
7. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
8. "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
9. "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
10. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
11. "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
12. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
13. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
14. "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
15. "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
16. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
17. "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
18. Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
19. "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
20. Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
21. staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
22. O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
23. Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
24. https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
25. "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
26. https://spokanegop.com/
27. "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
28. "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
29. "Certification of Results" (PDF). Washington Secretary of State.
30. TVW
31. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
32. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
33. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
34. "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
35. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
36. "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
37. "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
38. "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
39. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
40. 270ToWin
41. TheHill/DDHQ
42. Research Co.
43. Public Policy Polling (D)
44. SurveyUSA
45. Cascade PBS/Elway Research
46. Public Policy Polling (D)
47. SurveyUSA
48. Public Policy Polling (D)
49. Cascade PBS/Elway Research
50. Echelon Insights (R)
51. Public Policy Polling (D)
52. Public Policy Polling (D)
53. Elway Research
54. Public Policy Polling (D)
55. Public Policy Polling (D)
56. "Official Canvass of the Returns" (PDF). Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved December 4, 2024.
57. https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20241105/us-senator_bycounty.html
58. Results (PDF). sos.wa.gov (Report).

External links

Official campaign websites

• Maria Cantwell (D) for Senate
• Raul Garcia (R) for Senate