2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 4 1
Popular vote 564,816 369,995
Percentage 59.32% 38.86%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.

Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district, marking it the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In recent years, the district has leaned Democatic. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5.9%, despite the state at large voting Republican by a landslide margin.

Trump improved his margin statewide, but lost the 2nd district again,[1] as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by 4.6%.[2][3] Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska.[4].

The 1st congressional district while solidly Republican, defied the nation-wide trend to the right and shifted 1.5% to the left, toward democrats.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024. President Biden won twenty-eight delegates. Congressman Dean Phillips won one delegate by receiving the most votes of any candidate in Logan County, with 55.6% of the vote.[5]

Nebraska Democratic primary, May 14, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 84,677 90.2% 28 28
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 9,199 9.8% 1
Total: 93,876 100.0% 29 5 34

Republican primary

The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.

Nebraska Republican primary, May 14, 2024[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 167,968 79.3% 36
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 38,246 18.1%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn) 3,902 1.8%
Write-in votes[8] 1,671 0.8%
Total: 211,787 100.0% 36 36

Libertarian primary

Primary results by county:
  Oliver
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   >90%
  Ballay
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
  •   >90%
  Hornberger
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mapstead
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  •   >90%
  Rectenwald
  •   40–50%
  Tie
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No Votes

The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.[9]

Nebraska Libertarian primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
Chase Oliver 309 27.6%
Charles Ballay 237 21.2%
Jacob Hornberger 204 18.2%
Lars Mapstead 180 16.1%
Michael Rectenwald 120 10.7%
Mike ter Maat 69 6.2%
Total: 1,119 100.0%
Source:[10]

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska:[11]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.

Proposal to change to winner-take-all

In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but no other swing states, the second district could give Biden the decisive 270th electoral vote.[12] While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for cloture on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all."[13]

Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 49 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – in order to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans.[14]

After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change.[15][16] Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a change in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote.[17] McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters.[18] The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session.[19]

Predictions

Source Ranking (1st) Ranking (2nd) Ranking (3rd) Ranking (statewide) As of
Cook Political Report[20] Solid R Likely D Solid R Solid R November 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely R Likely D Solid R Safe R November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[22] Solid R Likely D Solid R Safe R August 26, 2024
CNalysis[23] Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R November 4, 2024
CNN[24] Solid R Lean D Solid R Solid R October 1, 2024
The Economist[25] Safe R Likely D Solid R Safe R October 3, 2024
538[26] Solid R Likely D Solid R Solid R September 13, 2024
Inside Elections[27] Solid R Lean D Solid R Solid R August 29, 2024
NBC News[28] Safe R Lean D Safe R Safe R October 6, 2024
YouGov[29] Safe R Tossup Safe R Safe R October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[30] Solid R Likely D Solid R Solid R November 1, 2024

Polling

Statewide

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)[31][A] October 30–31, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.3% 57% 39% 4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[32][B] October 25–28, 2024 605 (LV) ± 3.9% 56% 39% 5%
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 23−26, 2024 1,194 (RV) ± 3.2% 55% 40% 5%
1,194 (LV) 55% 40% 5%
Change Research (D)[34][A] October 18–21, 2024 815 (LV) 55% 41% 4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[35][B] October 5–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 37% 6%
Change Research (D)[36][A] October 3–8, 2024 895 (LV) ± 3.5% 58% 38% 4%
Impact Research (D)[37][A] October 1–3, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 58% 38% 4%
The Bullfinch Group[38][C] September 27 – October 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 42% 5%
48% 38% 14%[b]
SurveyUSA[39][A] September 20–23, 2024 558 (LV) ± 4.8% 56% 40% 5%[c]
Global Strategy Group (D)[40][D] August 26–29, 2024 600 (LV) 54% 37% 9%
SurveyUSA[41][E] August 23–27, 2024 1,293 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 37% 9%[d]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
The Economist/YouGov[42] October 21–28, 2024 1,206 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 40% 0% 0% 1% 4%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 23−26, 2024 1,194 (RV) ± 3.2% 53% 38% 0% 0% 1% 8%
1,194 (LV) 53% 39% 0% 0% 1% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R)[43][B] July 8–11, 2024 698 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 33% 15%[f]
Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] April 24–25, 2024 737 (V) ± 3.6% 57% 34% 9%
John Zogby Strategies[45][F] April 13–21, 2024 307 (LV) 50% 39% 11%
Change Research (D)[46][G] November 13–16, 2023 1,048 (LV) 53% 35% 12%
Emerson College[47] October 1–4, 2023 423 (RV) ± 4.7% 47% 31% 23%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[45][F] April 13–21, 2024 307 (LV) 47% 39% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[45][F] April 13–21, 2024 307 (LV) 50% 38% 12%

Nebraska's 1st congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
The Economist/YouGov[42] October 21–28, 2024 408 (LV) 51% 43% 0% 0% 3% 3%[e]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 23−26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 54% 42% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[48] September 24–26, 2024 680 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
680 (LV) 52% 43% 5%
SurveyUSA[41][E] August 23–27, 2024 507 (RV) ± 5.6% 47% 42% 11%[g]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
The Economist/YouGov[42] October 21–28, 2024 393 (LV) 52% 44% 0% 1% 1% 2%
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 23−26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 53% 41% 0% 0% 1% 5%
New York Times/Siena College[48] September 24–26, 2024 680 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 2% 2% 6%
680 (LV) 51% 42% 2% 1% 4%
CNN/SSRS[49] September 20–25, 2024 794 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[50][H] August 14–17, 2024 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% 2% 1% 1% 0% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)[51][I] August 10–17, 2024 437 (LV) 47% 42% 5% 6%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R)[43][B] July 8–11, 2024 300 (LV) 42% 42% 16%[h]
Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] April 24–25, 2024 43% 46% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] April 24–25, 2024 34% 37% 9% 4% 4% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Iron Light Intelligence[52][J] May 17–22, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 42% 37% 13% 8%

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
The Economist/YouGov[42] October 21–28, 2024 404 (LV) 70% 25% 0% 0% 0% 5%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 564,816 59.32% +1.10%
Democratic 369,995 38.86% −0.31%
Libertarian 6,399 0.67% −1.45%
Legal Marijuana Now 3,062 0.32% N/A
Green 2,887 0.30% N/A
Write-in 5,023 0.53% +0.04%
Total votes 952,182 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 10,077 69.92% 4,100 28.45% 235 1.63% 5,977 41.47% 14,412
Antelope 3,032 87.68% 396 11.45% 30 0.87% 2,636 76.23% 3,458
Arthur 264 93.29% 17 6.01% 2 0.71% 247 87.28% 283
Banner 348 89.23% 34 8.72% 8 2.05% 314 80.51% 390
Blaine 250 85.62% 37 12.67% 5 1.71% 213 72.95% 292
Boone 2,499 82.20% 496 16.32% 45 1.48% 2,003 65.88% 3,040
Box Butte 3,827 77.52% 1,043 21.13% 67 1.36% 2,784 56.39% 4,937
Boyd 938 87.17% 132 12.27% 6 0.56% 806 74.90% 1,076
Brown 1,428 86.65% 201 12.20% 19 1.15% 1,227 74.45% 1,648
Buffalo 17,064 71.47% 6,386 26.75% 427 1.79% 10,678 44.72% 23,877
Burt 2,632 71.81% 983 26.82% 50 1.36% 1,649 44.99% 3,665
Butler 3,642 79.05% 906 19.67% 59 1.28% 2,736 59.38% 4,607
Cass 10,685 67.50% 4,824 30.47% 321 2.03% 5,861 37.03% 15,830
Cedar 4,141 83.86% 702 14.22% 95 1.92% 3,439 69.64% 4,938
Chase 1,648 88.22% 204 10.92% 16 0.86% 1,444 77.30% 1,868
Cherry 2,687 87.30% 349 11.34% 42 1.36% 2,338 75.96% 3,078
Cheyenne 3,692 81.11% 787 17.29% 73 1.60% 2,905 63.82% 4,552
Clay 2,677 80.66% 577 17.38% 65 1.96% 2,100 63.28% 3,319
Colfax 2,636 74.91% 845 24.01% 38 1.08% 1,791 50.90% 3,519
Cuming 3,536 79.34% 867 19.45% 54 1.21% 2,669 59.89% 4,457
Custer 5,042 85.33% 786 13.30% 81 1.37% 4,256 72.03% 5,909
Dakota 3,934 64.09% 2,109 34.36% 95 1.55% 1,825 29.73% 6,138
Dawes 2,812 72.31% 992 25.51% 85 2.19% 1,820 46.80% 3,889
Dawson 6,312 74.07% 2,101 24.65% 109 1.28% 4,211 49.42% 8,522
Deuel 843 83.14% 151 14.89% 20 1.97% 692 68.25% 1,014
Dixon 2,271 78.20% 573 19.73% 60 2.07% 1,698 58.47% 2,904
Dodge 10,795 65.39% 5,434 32.92% 279 1.69% 5,361 32.47% 16,508
Douglas 120,919 43.95% 148,733 54.06% 5,493 2.00% -27,814 -10.11% 275,145
Dundy 829 89.04% 96 10.31% 6 0.64% 733 78.73% 931
Fillmore 2,315 76.55% 662 21.89% 47 1.55% 1,653 54.66% 3,024
Franklin 1,351 84.17% 236 14.70% 18 1.12% 1,115 69.47% 1,605
Frontier 1,213 85.85% 185 13.09% 15 1.06% 1,028 72.76% 1,413
Furnas 2,043 84.46% 358 14.80% 18 0.74% 1,685 69.66% 2,419
Gage 7,523 68.61% 3,242 29.57% 200 1.82% 4,281 39.04% 10,965
Garden 949 84.73% 162 14.46% 9 0.80% 787 70.27% 1,120
Garfield 893 87.81% 116 11.41% 8 0.79% 777 76.40% 1,017
Gosper 907 80.77% 203 18.08% 13 1.16% 704 62.69% 1,123
Grant 351 95.90% 15 4.10% 0 0.00% 336 91.80% 366
Greeley 1,030 83.40% 192 15.55% 13 1.05% 838 67.85% 1,235
Hall 15,566 67.97% 6,956 30.37% 379 1.65% 8,610 37.60% 22,901
Hamilton 4,416 79.24% 1,067 19.15% 90 1.61% 3,349 60.09% 5,573
Harlan 1,506 83.43% 280 15.51% 19 1.05% 1,226 67.92% 1,805
Hayes 472 95.55% 19 3.85% 3 0.61% 453 91.70% 494
Hitchcock 1,269 88.19% 152 10.56% 18 1.25% 1,117 77.63% 1,439
Holt 4,708 86.26% 681 12.48% 69 1.26% 4,027 73.78% 5,458
Hooker 369 86.42% 55 12.88% 3 0.70% 314 73.54% 427
Howard 2,868 80.43% 642 18.00% 56 1.57% 2,226 62.43% 3,566
Jefferson 2,614 71.83% 968 26.60% 57 1.57% 1,646 45.23% 3,639
Johnson 1,496 69.16% 625 28.90% 42 1.94% 871 40.26% 2,163
Kearney 2,828 78.23% 736 20.36% 51 1.41% 2,092 57.87% 3,615
Keith 3,416 81.16% 731 17.37% 62 1.47% 2,685 63.79% 4,209
Keya Paha 500 91.74% 44 8.07% 1 0.18% 456 83.67% 545
Kimball 1,424 82.69% 272 15.80% 26 1.51% 1,152 66.89% 1,722
Knox 3,593 80.78% 786 17.67% 69 1.55% 2,807 63.11% 4,448
Lancaster 74,215 46.75% 81,012 51.04% 3,507 2.21% -6,797 -4.29% 158,734
Lincoln 12,674 76.67% 3,586 21.69% 270 1.63% 9,088 54.98% 16,530
Logan 409 92.53% 25 5.66% 8 1.81% 384 86.87% 442
Loup 354 82.71% 73 17.06% 1 0.23% 281 65.65% 428
Madison 12,145 77.13% 3,360 21.34% 242 1.54% 8,785 55.79% 15,747
McPherson 267 94.01% 12 4.23% 5 1.76% 255 89.78% 284
Merrick 3,551 81.30% 730 16.71% 87 1.99% 2,821 64.59% 4,368
Morrill 2,026 83.37% 366 15.06% 38 1.56% 1,660 68.31% 2,430
Nance 1,462 79.28% 352 19.09% 30 1.63% 1,110 60.19% 1,844
Nemaha 2,443 71.04% 915 26.61% 81 2.36% 1,528 44.43% 3,439
Nuckolls 1,836 81.17% 399 17.64% 27 1.19% 1,437 63.53% 2,262
Otoe 5,651 68.69% 2,463 29.94% 113 1.37% 3,188 38.75% 8,227
Pawnee 1,085 78.34% 284 20.51% 16 1.16% 801 57.83% 1,385
Perkins 1,224 85.47% 187 13.06% 21 1.47% 1,037 72.41% 1,432
Phelps 4,158 83.39% 758 15.20% 70 1.40% 3,400 68.19% 4,986
Pierce 3,420 87.47% 446 11.41% 44 1.13% 2,974 76.06% 3,910
Platte 12,326 78.33% 3,191 20.28% 219 1.39% 9,135 58.05% 15,736
Polk 2,296 81.16% 501 17.71% 32 1.13% 1,795 63.45% 2,829
Red Willow 4,457 83.48% 815 15.27% 67 1.25% 3,642 68.21% 5,339
Richardson 2,962 74.76% 934 23.57% 66 1.67% 2,028 51.19% 3,962
Rock 745 89.22% 85 10.18% 5 0.60% 660 79.04% 835
Saline 3,734 65.84% 1,855 32.71% 82 1.45% 1,879 33.13% 5,671
Sarpy 55,567 54.85% 43,825 43.26% 1,907 1.88% 11,742 11.59% 101,299
Saunders 9,854 72.34% 3,558 26.12% 210 1.54% 6,296 46.22% 13,622
Scotts Bluff 11,033 73.09% 3,856 25.54% 206 1.36% 7,177 47.55% 15,095
Seward 6,667 72.15% 2,388 25.84% 185 2.00% 4,279 46.31% 9,240
Sheridan 2,102 84.18% 362 14.50% 33 1.32% 1,740 69.68% 2,497
Sherman 1,344 79.43% 328 19.39% 20 1.18% 1,016 60.04% 1,692
Sioux 597 87.79% 77 11.32% 6 0.88% 520 76.47% 680
Stanton 2,536 82.44% 492 15.99% 48 1.56% 2,044 66.45% 3,076
Thayer 2,278 79.57% 544 19.00% 41 1.43% 1,734 60.57% 2,863
Thomas 348 88.55% 44 11.20% 1 0.25% 304 77.35% 393
Thurston 1,125 52.99% 978 46.07% 20 0.94% 147 6.92% 2,123
Valley 1,872 81.36% 403 17.51% 26 1.13% 1,469 63.85% 2,301
Washington 8,855 70.24% 3,538 28.06% 214 1.70% 5,317 42.18% 12,607
Wayne 3,011 73.33% 1,006 24.50% 89 2.17% 2,005 48.83% 4,106
Webster 1,449 82.10% 296 16.77% 20 1.13% 1,153 65.33% 1,765
Wheeler 424 87.24% 57 11.73% 5 1.03% 367 75.51% 486
York 5,234 74.56% 1,648 23.48% 138 1.97% 3,586 51.08% 7,020
Totals 564,816 59.32% 369,995 38.86% 17,371 1.82% 194,821 20.46% 952,182

By congressional district

Trump won two of Nebraska's three congressional districts, while Harris won the second, which elected a Republican.[1]

District Trump Harris Other Representative
# % # % # %
1st 177,666 55.49% 136,153 42.52% 6,375 1.99% Mike Flood
2nd 148,905 46.73% 163,541 51.32% 6,200 1.95% Don Bacon
3rd 238,245 76.03% 70,301 22.44% 4,796 1.53% Adrian Smith

Analysis

A sparsely populated Great Plains state, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic presidential candidates have not been able to come within single digits of carrying the state since Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide, and the only Democrat to win more than 40% of the statewide vote since then was Barack Obama, who garnered 41.60% in 2008.

Harris's win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district marked the first time Democrats carried the district in consecutive elections since Nebraska adopted the district method in 1992, and the first time since 1936 that Democrats won consecutive electoral votes from the state. It was also the first presidential election since 2012 where the district did not back the Electoral College winner, and the first time a Republican won the presidency without carrying the district or sweeping Nebraska’s electoral votes since 1908. Notably, it was the only electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2024.[53]

Notably, Republican Don Bacon won re-election to the house in Nebraska's 2nd District.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
  3. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
  4. ^ "Other" with 4%
  5. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  7. ^ "Other" with 5%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 12%
  9. ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  10. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
  3. ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
  5. ^ a b Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
  6. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority
  10. ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

References

  1. ^ a b c "Official Results" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2024.
  2. ^ https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020
  3. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  4. ^ Searcey, Dionne (August 6, 2024). "Walz Grew Up in Rural Nebraska, Where Finding a Date 'Was Kind of a Problem'". The New York Times.
  5. ^ "Nebraska Statewide and Presidential Primary Democratic Results". USA Today.
  6. ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary". AP News. June 17, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  7. ^ Evnen, Robert (May 14, 2020). "The Nebraska Board of State Canvassers Official Report" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  8. ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
  9. ^ "Statewide Candidate List List as of 3/18/2024 10:41:21 AM" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  10. ^ "Nebraska Secretary of State – Election Night Results – May 14th, 2024". Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  11. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  12. ^ Zeleny, Jeff (September 21, 2024). "Trump presses to change Nebraska election law, in fight for a sole electoral vote | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
  13. ^ "State Sen. Mike McDonnell now a Republican: Does he support 'winner-take-all'?". KMTV 3 News Now Omaha. April 4, 2024. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  14. ^ Marley, Patrick; Dawsey, Josh; Scherer, Michael (September 20, 2024). "Trump ramps up push for Nebraska to change electoral vote allocation". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  15. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 20, 2024). "Sen. Mike McDonnell says he's a no on winner-take-all 'as of today' • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  16. ^ "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election". The New York Times. September 20, 2024.
  17. ^ "Maine Democrats have likely run out of time to change Electoral College laws if Nebraska GOP acts". NBC News. September 20, 2024.
  18. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 23, 2024). "State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024 • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  19. ^ "In a blow to Trump, Nebraska governor won't call a special session to change state's electoral votes". NBC News. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
  21. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
  22. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
  23. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
  24. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
  25. ^ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
  26. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
  27. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  28. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  29. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  30. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  31. ^ App, Betsy (October 31, 2024). "Nebraska U.S. Senate Poll Results" (PDF). Change Research.
  32. ^ Wegley, Andrew (November 1, 2024). "Exclusive: Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer leads Dan Osborn by 7.5 points in new poll". Lincoln Journal Star.
  33. ^ a b c d Weisman, Jonathan; Baker, Camille (October 28, 2024). "Republicans Cling to Slim Leads in Nebraska and Texas Senate Races". The New York Times.
  34. ^ Grim, Ryan (October 23, 2024). "New poll has an independent populist upending the Senate with a Nebraska upset". Drop Site.
  35. ^ Desiderio, Andrew; Zanona, Melanie (October 11, 2024). "Fischer rebounds after sluggish start triggered GOP panic". Punchbowl News.
  36. ^ Bade, Rachael; Daniels, Eugene (October 10, 2024). "Playbook: The battle for the bros". Politico.
  37. ^ "Dan Osborn Leading Deb Fischer Roughly One Month from Election Day". Impact Research. October 7, 2024.
  38. ^ "Toplines: Independent Center Oct 2024 Online Survey of Likely Voters in Nebraska" (PDF). Independent Center. October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  39. ^ "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27302". SurveyUSA. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  40. ^ Pollock, Jefrey (September 19, 2024). "NE US SEN — More positive polling for Osborn, Fischer goes hard negative" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
  41. ^ a b Jain, Lakshya; McCall, Max; Lavelle, Harrison; Sit, Leon (August 31, 2024). "We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here's What We Found". Split Ticket.
  42. ^ a b c d "Economist Poll – October 21-28, 2024" (PDF). The Economist. October 30, 2024.
  43. ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (July 19, 2024). "Fischer, Trump lead statewide in Fischer's new Nebraska poll". Nebraska Examiner.
  44. ^ a b c Patterson, Katherine (May 6, 2024). "Osborn Trails Senator Fischer by Just 4 Points in Nebraska's Senate Race; Fischer Underwater in Favorability" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
  45. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  46. ^ "Nebraska Survey Toplines - November 2023" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. December 6, 2023.
  47. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Nebraska Poll: Trump Maintains Lead but Biden Cuts into 2020 Vote". Emerson Polling.
  48. ^ a b Epstein, Reid J.; Igielnik, Ruth; Baker, Camille (September 28, 2024). "Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Polls Find". The New York Times.
  49. ^ Edwards-Levy, Ariel (September 27, 2024). "CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska's 2nd District". CNN.
  50. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (August 20, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in new Nebraska 2nd District poll". Nebraska Examiner.
  51. ^ Riddle, Mark (August 21, 2024). "Governing Landscape and Messaging" (PDF). Future Majority.
  52. ^ "League of American Workers NE-02 Poll of Likely Voters". League of American Workers. May 23, 2024. Archived from the original on May 29, 2024.
  53. ^ https://www.270towin.com/states/Nebraska

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