2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election

2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2007 November 8, 2011 2015 →
Turnout28.3% Decrease 8.9 pp
 
Nominee Steve Beshear David L. Williams Gatewood Galbraith
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Jerry Abramson Richie Farmer Dea Riley
Popular vote 464,245 294,034 74,860
Percentage 55.72% 35.29% 8.99%
Beshear:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Williams:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

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The 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the governor of Kentucky and the lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear won re-election, defeating Republican challenger David L. Williams, then the president of the state senate, and Gatewood Galbraith, an independent candidate. Statewide turnout in this election was 28%.[1]

Background

On July 19, 2009, Beshear announced his intention to run for re-election. However, in that announcement, he stated that then-Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson would be his running mate in 2011[2] instead of current Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, who chose to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[3] Kentucky state law requires that gubernatorial candidates file to run with running mates, otherwise they cannot legally raise money. Beshear wanted to fundraise and this would have required Mongiardo also saying that he was running in 2011, which he couldn't do.[4] Beshear and Abramson did not face any opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Among Republicans, Kentucky State Senate President David Williams from Burkesville announced his official candidacy along with running mate Richie Farmer, the term-limited State Agriculture Commissioner and former Kentucky Wildcats basketball player.[5] Louisville businessman Phil Moffett also announced his ticket with State Representative Mike Harmon from Danville as his running mate.[6] Moffett was seen as the Tea Party favorite.[7] However, Williams also advocated for similar positions as Moffett, such as the repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution[8] and promoting tax reforms similar to what Moffett proposed.

Attorney Gatewood Galbraith of Lexington filed to run his fourth gubernatorial campaign as an independent on July 4, 2009, choosing marketing consultant Dea Riley as his running mate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Beshear (incumbent) 446,048 100.00%
Total votes 446,048 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bobbie Holsclaw, Jefferson County Clerk, 1998–2010, 2014–present[9]
    • Running mate: Bill Vermillion, retired U.S. Navy master chief
  • Phil Moffett, Louisville businessman[10][11] and Tea Party activist[7]
    • Running mate: Mike Harmon, state representative, 2003–2016
  • David L. Williams, state senate president, 2000–2012; state senator 1987–2012; and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[12]
    • Running mate: Richie Farmer, Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner, 2004–2012

Polling

Poll Source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bobbie
Holsclaw 		Phil
Moffett 		David
Williams 		Undecided
Survey USA[13] May 4–10, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 12% 21% 47% 21%
Survey USA[14] April 8–13, 2011 507 ± 4.4% 12% 14% 49% 25%

Results

Results by county:
  Williams
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Moffett
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Holsclaw
  •   30–40%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Williams 68,528 48.0%
Republican Phil Moffett 53,966 38.0%
Republican Bobbie Holsclaw 19,614 14.0%
Total votes 142,108 100.0%

Independents

Declared

  • Gatewood Galbraith, attorney, industrial hemp advocate and perennial candidate[16]
    • Running mate: Dea Riley, political consultant

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Rothenberg Political Report[17] Lean D November 4, 2011
Governing[18] Lean D November 4, 2011
Cook[19] Lean D November 4, 2011
Sabato[20] Likely D November 4, 2011

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Beshear (D) 		David
Williams (R) 		Gatewood
Galbraith (I) 		Undecided
Survey USA[21] October 28 – November 1, 2011 576 ± 4.2% 54% 29% 9% 8%
Braun Research[22] October 17–19, 2011 802 ± 3.5% 54% 26% 8% 12%
Survey USA[23] September 22–27, 2011 569 ± 4.2% 57% 26% 8% 9%
Braun Research[24] August 29–31, 2011 803 ± 3.5% 54% 25% 7% 14%
Public Policy Polling[25] August 25–28, 2011 600 ± 4.0% 55% 28% 10% 8%
Survey USA[26] July 22–27, 2011 512 ± 4.4% 52% 28% 9% 11%
Braun Research[27] June 6–8, 2011 802 ± 3.5% 51% 30% 6% 14%
Survey USA[14] April 8–13, 2011 1,589 ± 2.5% 51% 39% — 10%
Braun Research[28] February 28 – March 1, 2011 804 ± 3.5% 48% 38% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[29] October 28–30, 2010 1,021 ± 3.1% 44% 35% — 21%
Mason-Dixon[30] October 18–19, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 45% 30% 5% 20%
Public Policy Polling[31] September 11–12, 2010 959 ± 3.2% 44% 39% — 17%
Braun Research[32] August 30 – September 1, 2010 802 ± 3.5% 44% 38% — 18%
Braun Research[33] July 19–21, 2010 803 ± 3.4% 48% 30% — 20%
Hypothetical polling

With Moffett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Beshear (D) 		Phil
Moffett (R) 		Gatewood
Galbraith (I) 		Other/
Undecided
Survey USA[14] April 8–13, 2011 1,589 ± 2.5% 54% 34% — 13%
Braun Research[28] February 28-March 1, 2011 804 ± 3.5% 53% 28% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[29] October 28–30, 2010 1,021 ± 3.1% 45% 26% — 29%
Mason-Dixon[34] October 18–19, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 43% 24% 6% 26%
Public Policy Polling[31] September 11–12, 2010 959 ± 3.2% 46% 28% — 26%
Braun Research[32] September 1, 2010 — — 49% 29% — 22%

With Holsclaw

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Beshear (D) 		Bobbie
Holsclaw (R) 		Gatewood
Galbraith (I) 		Other/
Undecided
Survey USA[14] April 8–13, 2011 1,589 ± 2.5% 53% 34% — 13%
Braun Research[28] February 28 – March 1, 2011 804 ± 3.5% 53% 27% — 21%

Results

[35]
Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2011
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Steve Beshear (incumbent) 464,245 55.72% −2.99%
Republican David L. Williams 294,034 35.29% −6.00%
Independent Gatewood Galbraith 74,860 8.99% +8.99%
Total votes 833,139 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Beshear won all 6 congressional districts, including four represented by Republicans.[36]

District Beshear Williams Galbraith Representative
1st 54% 41% 5% Ed Whitfield
2nd 57% 38% 6% Brett Guthrie
3rd 67% 27% 6% John Yarmuth
4th 53% 40% 6% Geoff Davis
5th 47% 44% 8% Hal Rogers
6th 56% 23% 21% Ben Chandler

See also

References

  1. ^ "Election summary". Archived from the original on February 11, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2021.
  2. ^ Gerth, Joseph (July 19, 2009). "Abramson to be Beshear's running mate in 2011". The Courier-Journal. Archived from the original on January 2, 2013. Retrieved July 20, 2009.
  3. ^ Ronnie Ellis (March 27, 2009). "Beshear endorses Mongiardo for Senate". News-tribune.net. Archived from the original on February 22, 2013. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  4. ^ "Mongiardo considers running for Senate".
  5. ^ Alford, Roger (October 28, 2009). "Farmer mulls run for governor". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved October 28, 2009.
  6. ^ Arnold, Joe (July 29, 2010). "Phil Moffett announces candidacy for governor | WHAS11.com Louisville". Whas11.com. Archived from the original on March 5, 2012. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  7. ^ a b Brammer, Jack (November 15, 2010). "David Williams and Phil Moffett in a battle for the Republican Party's soul". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 5, 2020.
  8. ^ Jack Brammer, Lexington Herald Leader, November 19, 2010 "Williams pushes repeal of 17th amendment"
  9. ^ Newton, Dave (January 25, 2011). "Stage Set For the Primary Election". Kentuckians For The Commonwealth. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  10. ^ "Louisville businessman Phil Moffett running for governor : Bluegrass Politics". Bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  11. ^ "Republican Phil Moffett announces gubernatorial campaign, hopes for Tea Party support". Apex MediaWire. July 29, 2009. Archived from the original on March 26, 2012. Retrieved July 29, 2009.
  12. ^ Brammer, Jack (September 2, 2010). "David Williams and Richie Farmer form slate to seek state's top offices". Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on September 3, 2010. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
  13. ^ Survey USA
  14. ^ a b c d Survey USA
  15. ^ "KY – Election Results". Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  16. ^ Blackford, Linda B. (October 13, 2011). "Dea Riley brings energy, and baggage, to Gatewood Galbraith's campaign". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  17. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  18. ^ "An Update on the 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Contests". Governing. July 25, 2011. Archived from the original on August 1, 2011.
  19. ^ "2011/2012 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". The Cook Political Report. September 15, 2011. Archived from the original on October 7, 2011.
  20. ^ "2012 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  21. ^ Survey USA
  22. ^ Braun Research
  23. ^ Survey USA
  24. ^ Braun Research
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling [dead link]
  26. ^ Survey USA
  27. ^ Braun Research
  28. ^ a b c Braun Research
  29. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  30. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  31. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  32. ^ a b Braun Research [permanent dead link]
  33. ^ Braun Research
  34. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ "KY – Election Results". Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  36. ^ https://x.com/kentucky_kiwi/status/1690856927197024258

Candidates

Information