2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

November 6, 2018
Turnout	55.0%
Nominee Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Gary Johnson Party Democratic Republican Libertarian Popular vote 376,998 212,813 107,201 Percentage 54.09% 30.53% 15.38%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Heinrich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Rich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      No data
U.S. senator before election Martin Heinrich Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term.^[1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for president of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.^[2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Results

Democratic primary results^[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	152,145	100%
Total votes			152,145	100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mick Rich, businessman^[4]

Declined

• Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and candidate for NM-02 in 2008 (ran as a Libertarian, later endorsed Gary Johnson)^[5]
• Steve Pearce, U.S. representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 (ran for Governor)^[6]
• Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico^[7]

Results

Republican primary results^[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mick Rich	67,502	100%
Total votes			67,502	100%

Libertarian primary

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.^[8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.^[9]

Candidates

Declared

• Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico,^[10] Libertarian nominee for president in 2012 and 2016

Withdrew nomination

• Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands^[11]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Aubrey Dunn	623	100%
Total votes			623	100%

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)

U.S. senators

• Angus King, U.S. senator (I-ME)^[12]

Organizations

• Alliance for Retired Americans^[13]
• End Citizens United^[14]
• J Street^[15]
• League of Conservation Voters^[16]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[16]
• Population Connection^[17]
• Sierra Club^[18]
• Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters^[19]
• United Automobile Workers^[20]

Mick Rich (R)

Governors

• Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico, former chair of the Republican Governors Association^[21]

U.S. representatives

• Steve Pearce (NM-02)^[22]

Individuals

• Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist and executive chair of Breitbart News^[23]

Organizations

• Associated Builders and Contractors^[24]
• National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors^[25]

• National Right to Life Committee^[26]

Gary Johnson (L)

Governors

• Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts and 2016 Libertarian nominee for vice president^[27]

U.S. senators

• Rand Paul, Republican U.S. Senator from Kentucky^[28][29]

Statewide officials

• Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands, former Libertarian Senate candidate^[30]

State representatives

• Tweeti Blancett, former Republican state representative^[31]
• Robert Perls, former Democratic state representative^[31]

Local officeholders

• Eric Brakey, State Senator and Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Maine^[32]
• Jim Gray, former presiding judge of the Orange County Superior Court in California and 2012 Libertarian nominee for vice president^[33]
• Mark Tippetts, former member of the city council of Lago Vista, Texas, and 2018 Libertarian nominee for governor of Texas^[34]

Journalists

• Nick Gillespie, editor-at-large of Reason magazine^[35]

Newspapers

• Orange County Register^[36]

Organizations

• Libertarian Youth Caucus^[37]
• New Mexico Open Primaries^[38]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[39]	Safe D	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[40]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Fox News[42]	Likely D	November 1, 2018
CNN[43]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[44]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45]	Safe D	November 6, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Mick Rich (R)	Gary Johnson (L)	Undecided
Research Co.[46]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	47%	33%	11%	9%
Carroll Strategies[47]	November 1, 2018	1,202	± 2.8%	51%	38%	8%	3%
Research & Polling, Inc.[48]	October 26 – November 1, 2018	993	± 3.1%	51%	31%	12%	6%
Emerson College[49]	October 24–26, 2018	936	± 3.4%	48%	32%	16%	5%
Pacific Market Research[50]	October 19–24, 2018	400	± 4.9%	40%	28%	22%	11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[51]	September 20–24, 2018	932	–	36%	10%	28%	26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[52]	September 16–17, 2018	900	–	38%	10%	28%	24%
Research & Polling, Inc.[53]	September 7–13, 2018	966	± 3.1%	47%	26%	16%	–
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[54]	August 2018	900	–	38%	13%	28%	21%
Emerson College[55]	August 17–18, 2018	500	± 4.6%	39%	11%	21%	30%
GQR Research (D-TMI)[56]	August 2–5, 2018	500	± 4.4%	48%	33%	17%	2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[57]	August 1–5, 2018	800	± 3.5%	47%	29%	22%	–
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[58]	July 31 – August 2, 2018	500	± 4.5%	44%	30%	20%	6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[59]	July 2018	500	–	39%	25%	23%	12%

Hypothetical polling

with Mick Rich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Mick Rich (R)	Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[58]	July 31 – August 2, 2018	500	± 4.5%	55%	37%	8%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[60]	July 2018	500	–	47%	29%	–

with Gary Johnson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Gary Johnson (L)	Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[57]	August 1–5, 2018	800	± 3.5%	50%	38%	–
In Lux Research (L)[61]	July 28–29, 2018	525	–	40%	42%	–

with Aubrey Dunn

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Mick Rich (R)	Aubrey Dunn (L)	Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[62]	July 2018	500	–	47%	30%	7%	16%
Carroll Strategies[63]	June 15–16, 2018	1,199	± 2.8%	50%	39%	5%	6%

Results

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	376,998	54.09%	+3.08%
	Republican	Mick Rich	212,813	30.53%	−14.75%
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	107,201	15.38%	N/A
Total votes			697,012	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

Vote breakdown by county^[64]

	Martin Heinrich Democrat		Mick Rich Republican		Gary Johnson Libertarian		Total
County	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes
Bernalillo	140,082	58.1%	61,932	25.7%	39,274	16.3%	241,288
Catron	550	26.9%	1,075	58.4%	217	11.8%	1,842
Chaves	5,279	31.7%	8,727	52.4%	2,666	16.0%	16,672
Cibola	3,924	55.1%	1,842	25.9%	1,355	19.0%	7,121
Colfax	2,333	49.9%	1,615	34.5%	731	15.6%	4,679
Curry	2,793	27.4%	5,896	57.9%	1,498	14.7%	10,187
De Baca	267	33.2%	342	42.5%	196	24.4%	805
Doña Ana	34,651	57.0%	18,101	29.8%	8,029	13.2%	60,781
Eddy	4,834	30.7%	8,826	56.0%	2,095	13.3%	15,755
Grant	6,763	57.3%	3,598	30.5%	1,442	12.2%	11,803
Guadalupe	1,094	65.2%	292	17.4%	292	17.4%	1,678
Harding	198	41.2%	199	41.4%	84	17.5%	481
Hidalgo	790	49.5%	607	38.1%	198	12.4%	1,595
Lea	3,331	24.1%	8,882	64.2%	1,628	11.8%	13,841
Lincoln	2,617	33.3%	4,122	52.5%	1,111	14.2%	7,850
Los Alamos	5,798	56.3%	2,576	25.0%	1,926	18.7%	10,300
Luna	3,005	48.9%	2,313	37.7%	823	13.4%	6,141
McKinley	12,409	67.5%	2,915	15.9%	3,049	16.6%	18,373
Mora	1,564	67.4%	372	16.0%	386	16.6%	2,322
Otero	6,370	37.2%	8,460	49.4%	2,291	13.4%	17,121
Quay	1,016	32.9%	1,534	49.7%	537	17.4%	3,087
Rio Arriba	8,773	68.8%	1,945	15.3%	2,035	16.0%	12,753
Roosevelt	1,277	27.6%	2,606	56.3%	750	16.2%	4,633
San Juan	12,485	33.4%	18,002	48.2%	6,876	18.4%	37,363
San Miguel	6,609	71.6%	1,298	14.1%	1,323	14.3%	9,230
Sandoval	28,198	50.9%	17,785	32.1%	9,397	17.0%	55,380
Santa Fe	49,994	74.4%	9,546	14.2%	7,642	11.4%	67,182
Sierra	1,917	40.5%	2,048	43.3%	767	16.2%	4,732
Socorro	3,409	54.7%	1,700	27.3%	1,129	18.1%	6,238
Taos	10,838	74.7%	1,556	10.7%	2,112	14.6%	14,506
Torrance	1,982	36.9%	2,433	45.3%	951	17.7%	5,366
Union	334	22.8%	878	60.0%	252	17.2%	1,464
Valencia	11,514	47.1%	8,790	35.0%	4,139	16.9%	24,443

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
• Los Alamos (largest municipality: Los Alamos)
• Sandoval (largest municipality: Rio Rancho)
• Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts.^[65]

District	Heinrich	Rich	Johnson	Representative
1st	57.55%	26.28%	16.17%	Deb Haaland
2nd	45.56%	40.17%	14.27%	Xochitl Torres Small
3rd	57.52%	27.0%	15.48%	Ben Ray Luján

References

1. Coleman, Michael (November 10, 2016). "Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
2. "United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
3. "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 3, 2019.
4. Lee, Morgan (April 19, 2017). "New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid". KOB. Archived from the original on April 19, 2017. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
5. "Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM". Nmpoliticalreport.com. January 30, 2018. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
6. Keithley, Tim (November 23, 2016). "Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018". Ruidoso News. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
7. "New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run". U.S. News & World Report. January 18, 2018. Retrieved March 15, 2018.
8. "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
9. Boyd, Dan (August 14, 2018). "Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate". Albuquerque Journal.
10. "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
11. McLaughlin, Jill. "Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Los Alamos Monitor. Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
12. @TeamHeinrich (August 17, 2018). "Speaking of independent voices in the Senate, here's @SenAngusKing on why we need Martin's. #nmpol #nmsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
13. "Retirees Celebrate Social Security's 83rd Anniversary by Endorsing Senator Heinrich - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. August 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 20, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
14. Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Re-election". End Citizens United.
15. "2018 Senate Endorsees". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
16. "National Environmental Groups Endorse Martin Heinrich For U.S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. April 22, 2018.
17. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
18. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierraclub.org. July 16, 2012. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
19. "Carpenters 2018 Midterm New Mexico Endorsements". Swcarpenters.org. Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters.
20. "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". Uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
21. @MickRich4Senate (September 6, 2018). "With Gov. Susana Martinez at the Carlsbad Mayor's Energy Summit. #NMpol #NMsen #Carlsbad #oil&gas" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
22. "Steve Pearce Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 3, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
23. Lyman, Andy (October 19, 2018). "Steve Bannon: Mick Rich is a 'real populist'". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
24. "Associated Builders and Contractors Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. June 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved June 23, 2018.
25. Mick Rich. "I'm honored today to be endorsed by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors PAC. Thank you! I am the only conservative and pro-business candidate in New Mexico's race for U.S. Senate. #NMpol #NMsen". Twitter.
26. "National Right To Life Committee Endorses Mick Rich". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. July 31, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
27. "Bill Weld". Facebook. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
28. "Sen. Rand Paul Backs Libertarian Senate Candidate". The Associated Press. August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
29. Keller, Megan (August 28, 2018). "Rand Paul endorses Gary Johnson's Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved January 11, 2019.
30. "Aubrey Dunn". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
31. "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
32. Welch, Matt (August 31, 2018). "Eric Brakey, Republican Senate Candidate in Maine, Endorses Gary Johnson". Reason. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
33. "Endorsements". Gary Johnson Official Campaign Site. Archived from the original on August 31, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
34. @Mark4Gov (August 28, 2018). "Thank you @RandPaul for supporting the very best candidate for senate in New Mexico, @GovGaryJohnson!!#principlesoverparty#riseofthelibertarians#endtwopartyrule" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
35. @nickgillespie (August 14, 2018). "Very excited at this news about @GovGaryJohnson running as @LPNational candidate for Senate in NM! Stand by for more @MattWelch coverage http://reason.com/blog/2018/08/14/its-happening-gary-johnson-running-for-s … @GovBillWeld" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
36. "The Senate could use more libertarians like Gary Johnson". Ocregister.com. August 17, 2018. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
37. "Libertarian Youth Caucus". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
38. "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
39. "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
40. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
41. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
42. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
43. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
44. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
45. Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 26, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
46. Research Co.
47. Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
48. Research & Polling, Inc.
49. Emerson College
50. Pacific Market Research
51. NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
52. In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)
53. Research & Polling, Inc.
54. In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
55. Emerson College
56. GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
57. GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)
58. The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)
59. NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
60. NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
61. In Lux Research (L)
62. NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
63. Carroll Strategies
64. "New Mexico - Election Night Results". Archived from the original on June 11, 2019. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
65. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Gary Johnson (L) for Senate
• Martin Heinrich (D) for Senate
• Mick Rich (R) for Senate