2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district

November 6, 2018

Nominee Kelly Armstrong Mac Schneider Party Republican Democratic–NPL Popular vote 193,568 114,377 Percentage 60.20% 35.57%

County results Armstrong:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Schneider:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Kevin Cramer Republican Elected U.S. Representative Kelly Armstrong Republican

The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.

Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018 that he would run for re-election to a fourth term. He later expressed an intention to run for the United States Senate instead.^[1][2][3] On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.

Republican primary

State Senator Tom Campbell stated that he intended to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer ran for re-election, and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer did not run for re-election.^[4] Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.^[5]

Candidates

Nominated

• Kelly Armstrong, state senator^[6]

Declared

• Tiffany Abentroth, U.S. Marine Corps veteran^[7]
• Paul Schaffner, oil field employee^[8]

Withdrew

• Tom Campbell, state senator^[9]

Declined

• Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)^[2][3]
• Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party^[10]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tiffany Abentroth	Kelly Armstrong	Tom Campbell	Julie Fedorchak	DuWayne Hendrickson	Undecided
Gravis Marketing[11]	February 21–24, 2018	385	± 5.0%	1%	13%	28%	9%	1%	47%

Results

Results by county:

  Armstrong—80–90%

  Armstrong—70–80%

  Armstrong—60–70%

  Armstrong—50–60%

  Armstrong—40–50%

  Abentroth—30–40%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kelly Armstrong	37,054	56.23
	Republican	Tom Campbell (withdrawn)	17,692	26.85
	Republican	Tiffany Abentroth	5,877	8.92
	Republican	Paul Schaffner	5,203	7.90
	Republican	Write-Ins	75	0.11
Total votes			65,901	100.00

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention on March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access was actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.^[12]

Candidates

Endorsed

• Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate^[13][14]

Withdrawn

• John Grabinger, state senator^[15][14]
• Ben Hanson, former state representative^[16][12]

Results

Results by county:

  Schneider—100%

  Schneider—≥90%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic–NPL	Mac Schneider	33,545	99.78
	Democratic–NPL	Write-Ins	74	0.22
Total votes			33,619	100.00

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[17]	Solid R	June 1, 2018
The Rothenberg Political Report[18]	Solid R	June 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]	Safe R	June 6, 2018

Debates

Host network/sponsors	Date	Link(s)	Participants
			Mac Schneider (D)	Kelly Armstrong (R)
KFYR-TV	August 16, 2018	[20]	Invited	Invited
Prairie Public	September 11, 2018	[21]	Invited	Invited
KFGO	September 19, 2018	[22]	Invited	Invited

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Armstrong (R)	Mac Schneider (D)	Other	Undecided
FOX News[23]	October 27–30, 2018	789 LV	± 3.0%	55%	33%	2%	10%
		851 RV	± 3.0%	52%	32%	3%	12%
Strategic Research Associates[24]	October 12–19, 2018	650	± 3.8%	56%	35%	–	9%
FOX News[25]	September 29 – October 2, 2018	704 LV	± 3.5%	51%	34%	2%	12%
		801 V	± 3.5%	49%	33%	2%	14%
Strategic Research Associates[26]	September 17–27, 2018	650	± 3.8%	55%	31%	–	14%
FOX News[27]	September 8–11, 2018	701 LV	± 3.5%	48%	34%	2%	15%
		804 V	± 3.5%	47%	32%	2%	17%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[28]	August 26–28, 2018	506	± 4.5%	53%	32%	–	15%
Mason-Dixon[29]	June 13–15, 2018	625	± 4.0%	46%	35%	–	19%
Axis Research (R-Armstrong)[30]	May 13–14, 2018	509	± 4.5%	48%	26%	–	26%

Results

North Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2018^[31]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Kelly Armstrong	193,568	60.20%	−8.93%
	Democratic–NPL	Mac Schneider	114,377	35.57%	+11.82%
	Independent	Charles Tuttle	13,066	4.06%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	521	0.16%	N/A
Total votes			321,532	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Cass (largest city: Fargo)
• Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
• Benson (largest CDP: Fort Totten)
• Ransom (largest city: Lisbon)
• Steele (largest city: Finley)

References

1. Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
2. Robillard, Kevin (January 11, 2018). "Cramer won't run for Senate in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
3. Golshan, Tara (February 15, 2018). "A vulnerable North Dakota Democratic senator just attracted a serious GOP challenger". Vox. Vox Media. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
4. Hageman, John (November 22, 2016). "Grafton senator eyes congressional run". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
5. "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". April 11, 2018.
6. MacPherson, James (April 7, 2018). "ND GOP endorses Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Associated Press. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
7. "Marine Vet Tiffany Abentroth Seeks ND's Sole U.S. House Seat". Military.com. February 20, 2018. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
8. Hageman, John; Springer, Patrick (April 11, 2018). "Campbell drops out of US House race, paving way for GOP's Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
9. Garcia, Eric (April 11, 2018). "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". Roll Call.
10. Hageman, John (February 19, 2018). "Emineth won't run for US House in North Dakota".
11. Gravis Marketing
12. Hageman, John (March 20, 2018). "Hanson endorses fellow ND Democrat Mac Schneider in US House Race". Inforum. Retrieved March 20, 2018.
13. Easter, Sam (March 6, 2018). "Mac Schneider launches U.S. House bid in Grand Forks". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 6, 2018.
14. Hageman, John (March 17, 2018). "Democrats endorse Schneider for US House Race". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 17, 2018.
15. Norman, Keith (February 26, 2018). "Grabinger running for U.S. House". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
16. Haney, Don (August 16, 2017). "Ben Hanson, former legislator from West Fargo announces bid for congress". KFGO. Archived from the original on August 16, 2017. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
17. "House Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
18. "South Dakota | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
19. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
20. "KFYR-TV hosts North Dakota U.S. House candidate debate".
21. Prairie Public Broadcasting (September 11, 2018), ND House Debate Kelly Armstrong (R) & Mac Schneider (D), retrieved September 24, 2018
22. "US House Candidates Agree on Marijuana, Argue About Trade". U.S. News. September 19, 2018.
23. FOX News
24. Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
25. FOX News
26. Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
27. FOX News
28. Axis Research (R-Armstrong)
29. Mason-Dixon
30. Axis Research (R-Armstrong)
31. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Kelly Armstrong (R) for Congress
• Mac Schneider (D) for Congress