2018 United States Senate election in Montana

2018 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout71.53% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
 
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 253,876 235,963
Percentage 50.33% 46.78%
Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality. As of 2025, this is the last time Democrats won any congressional and/or statewide election in Montana.

Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Jon Tester

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Senators

Local and statewide politicians

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100.00%
Total votes 114,948 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[21][22]

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale

U.S. Presidents

U.S. Senators

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Troy
Downing 		Russell
Fagg 		Al
Olszewski 		Matt
Rosendale 		Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[41] April 15–16, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 12% 17% 8% 40% – 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)[42] February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 4.4% 12% 11% 5% 28% 1%[43] –

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Rosendale—60–70%
  •   Rosendale—50–60%
  •   Rosendale—40–50%
  •   Rosendale—30–40%
  •   Rosendale—<30%
  •   Rosendale/Fagg tie—30–40%
  •   Fagg—30–40%
  •   Fagg—40–50%
  •   Fagg—50–60%
  •   Olszewski—30–40%
  •   Olszewski—40–50%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,859 33.82%
Republican Russ Fagg 43,465 28.34%
Republican Troy Downing 29,341 19.13%
Republican Al Olszewski 28,681 18.70%
Total votes 153,346 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[45] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[45] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[46][47][48]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[49]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[50]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Kelly—100%
  •   Kelly—≥90%
  •   Kelly—80–90%
  •   Kelly—70–80%
  •   Kelly—60–70%
  •   Kelly—50–60%
  •   Kelly—40–50%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—30–40%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—50%
  •   Adams—50–60%
  •   Adams—60–70%
  •   Adams—100%
  •   No votes
Green primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22%
Green Timothy Adams 615 38.78%
Total votes 1,586 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[51] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[52] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] Lean D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[54] Tossup November 1, 2018
Fox News[55] Lean D November 1, 2018
CNN[56] Lean D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[57] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[58] Likely D November 6, 2018

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)

U.S. Vice Presidents

U.S. Senators

Newspapers

Local and statewide politicians

Organizations

Matt Rosendale (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L) - - -
Source: Federal Election Commission[81]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Matt
Rosendale (R) 		Rick
Breckenridge (L) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[82] November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% – 1% 0%
HarrisX[83] November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – –
Change Research[84] November 2–4, 2018 879 – 46% 49% 3% – –
HarrisX[85] October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – –
HarrisX[86] October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – –
HarrisX[87] October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – –
HarrisX[88] October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – –
HarrisX[89] October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – –
HarrisX[90] October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40% – – –
Gravis Marketing[91] October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% – – 7%
University of Montana[92] October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% – 10%
Montana State University Billings[93] October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% – 12%
Montana State University Bozeman[94] September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[95] September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% – – 6%
Gravis Marketing[96] September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% – – 6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC)[97] September 17–19, 2018 – ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% – 8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)[98] September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% – 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov[99] September 10–14, 2018 453 – 47% 45% – 3% 5%
University of Montana[100] August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% – 9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)[101] August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – – 5%
Remington Research (R)[102] July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% – – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[103] June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% – – 3%
Gravis Marketing[104] June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% – – 4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[105] February 12–March 5, 2018 1,484 ± 3.4% 42% 55% 3%

Results

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
State House district results
State Senate district results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2018[106]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.33% +1.75%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,963 46.78% +1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 14,545 2.88% −3.68%
Total votes 504,384 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana[107]

County Jon Tester
Democratic 		Matt Rosendale
Republican 		Rick Breckenridge
Libertarian 		Total

Votes

# % # % # %
Beaverhead 1,876 38.31% 2,866 58.53% 155 3.17% 4,897
Big Horn 3,027 64.73% 1,558 33.32% 91 1.95% 4,676
Blaine 1,961 64.96% 982 32.53% 76 2.52% 3,019
Broadwater 1,071 32.84% 2,086 63.97% 104 3.19% 3,261
Carbon 2,680 44.17% 3,209 52.89% 178 2.93% 6,067
Carter 128 17.02% 602 80.05% 22 2.93% 752
Cascade 17,435 51.27% 15,566 45.77% 1,008 2.96% 34,009
Chouteau 1,275 47.99% 1,312 49.38% 70 2.63% 2,657
Custer 1,942 39.77% 2,762 56.56% 179 3.67% 4,883
Daniels 281 29.86% 631 67.06% 29 3.08% 941
Dawson 1,233 30.27% 2,700 66.29% 140 3.44% 4,073
Deer Lodge 2,892 68.27% 1,208 28.52% 136 3.21% 4,236
Fallon 281 21.80% 951 73.78% 57 4.42% 1,289
Fergus 1,964 33.90% 3,640 62.83% 189 3.26% 5,793
Flathead 19,652 41.15% 26,759 56.03% 1,349 2.82% 47,760
Gallatin 33,251 59.45% 21,248 37.99% 1,434 2.56% 55,933
Garfield 81 11.88% 571 83.72% 30 4.40% 682
Glacier 3,754 75.14% 1,153 23.08% 89 1.78% 4,996
Golden Valley 130 28.63% 303 66.74% 21 4.63% 454
Granite 695 38.76% 1,046 58.34% 52 2.90% 1,793
Hill 3,729 58.36% 2,434 38.09% 227 3.55% 6,390
Jefferson 2,954 43.23% 3,653 53.46% 226 3.31% 6,833
Judith Basin 388 32.58% 752 63.14% 51 4.28% 1,191
Lake 6,916 50.22% 6,491 47.13% 365 2.65% 13,772
Lewis and Clark 20,506 57.70% 14,106 39.69% 927 2.61% 35,539
Liberty 365 37.21% 586 59.73% 30 3.06% 981
Lincoln 2,902 31.08% 6,137 65.73% 298 3.19% 9,337
Madison 1,890 38.11% 2,898 58.44% 171 3.45% 4,959
McCone 227 22.06% 773 75.12% 29 2.82% 1,029
Meagher 319 32.68% 629 64.45% 28 2.87% 976
Mineral 785 38.14% 1,181 57.39% 92 4.47% 2,058
Missoula 41,688 67.62% 18,631 30.22% 1,332 2.16% 61,651
Musselshell 573 23.56% 1,743 71.67% 116 4.77% 2,432
Park 5,114 52.59% 4,357 44.81% 253 2.60% 9,724
Petroleum 58 18.59% 248 79.49% 6 1.92% 312
Phillips 577 27.71% 1,426 68.49% 79 3.79% 2,082
Pondera 1,176 43.80% 1,413 52.63% 96 3.58% 2,685
Powder River 203 20.86% 748 76.88% 22 2.26% 973
Powell 1,026 37.17% 1,641 59.46% 93 3.37% 2,760
Prairie 177 27.11% 450 68.91% 26 3.98% 653
Ravalli 9,156 39.13% 13,622 58.21% 623 2.66% 23,401
Richland 1,136 26.22% 3,017 69.64% 179 4.13% 4,332
Roosevelt 2,013 58.40% 1,346 39.05% 88 2.55% 3,447
Rosebud 1,511 44.88% 1,765 52.42% 91 2.70% 3,367
Sanders 2,071 33.65% 3,856 62.66% 227 3.69% 6,154
Sheridan 712 39.29% 1,017 56.13% 83 4.58% 1,812
Silver Bow 11,672 71.55% 4,246 26.03% 394 2.42% 16,312
Stillwater 1,501 30.86% 3,206 65.91% 157 3.23% 4,864
Sweet Grass 652 31.08% 1,372 65.40% 74 3.53% 2,098
Teton 1,290 40.86% 1,784 56.51% 83 2.63% 3,157
Toole 626 32.90% 1,208 63.48% 69 3.63% 1,903
Treasure 129 31.16% 279 67.39% 6 1.45% 414
Valley 1,545 39.80% 2,137 55.05% 200 5.15% 3,882
Wheatland 315 33.76% 586 62.81% 32 3.43% 933
Wibaux 140 25.83% 390 71.96% 12 2.21% 542
Yellowstone 32,225 46.53% 34,682 50.08% 2,351 3.39% 69,258

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

  1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  2. ^ Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  3. ^ "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. October 9, 2017. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "WI-Sen, MT-Sen, PA-06, NJ-03, FL-07, NJ-11: Joe Biden Helps These Dems Bring In The Big Blue Wave". Daily Kos. April 12, 2018.
  5. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Refuses To Let The Kochs Defeat Jon Tester (D)". Daily Kos. February 22, 2018.
  6. ^ a b c d Brodey, Sam (August 4, 2017). "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  7. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Jon Tester (D) Take On Trump & Mitch McConnell (R. KY)". Daily Kos. February 24, 2018.
  8. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  9. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 27, 2017.
  10. ^ a b Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
  11. ^ a b "MT-Sen: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Helps Jon Tester (D) Fight Back Against GOP's Assault On Medicaid". Daily Kos. June 30, 2017.
  12. ^ a b "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  13. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United". End Citizens United.
  14. ^ a b "Montana Conservation Voters and LCV Action Fund Endorse Senator Jon Tester for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. March 21, 2018.
  15. ^ a b Hogue, Ilyse (April 9, 2018). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Jon Tester for Re-election - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  16. ^ a b c "2018 Montana primary election results" (PDF). Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  17. ^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (July 31, 2017). "Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
  18. ^ Volz, Matt (May 18, 2017). "Storage company CEO files to run against Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  19. ^ Lutey, Tom (October 14, 2017). "Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat". Billings Gazette.
  20. ^ Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017). "Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018". Independent Record. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  21. ^ Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  22. ^ "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  23. ^ Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  24. ^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017). "Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  25. ^ King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  26. ^ "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Archived from the original on June 11, 2018. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  27. ^ Gersh, Mark (August 18, 2016). "A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  28. ^ Dennison, Mike (September 12, 2017). "Republican Fagg insists he's still 'exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy". Montana Television Network. Archived from the original on September 12, 2017. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  29. ^ "Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester". Daily Kos Elections. June 2, 2017. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  30. ^ Staff, NCEC. "Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved June 9, 2017.
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  32. ^ Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
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  35. ^ a b "Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate primary". Independent Record. October 19, 2017.
  36. ^ a b "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Rosendale for Senate". CatholicVote.org. November 20, 2017.
  37. ^ a b "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES MONTANA STATE AUDITOR MATT ROSENDALE FOR U.S. SENATE". Club for Growth. July 31, 2017.
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  40. ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Matt Rosendale for Senate". FreedomWorks. January 30, 2018.
  41. ^ WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)
  42. ^ WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)
  43. ^ Ron Murray 1%
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  45. ^ a b Brown, Matthew (October 31, 2018). "Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale". Independent Record. Associated Press. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  46. ^ Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
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  48. ^ "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". October 31, 2018.
  49. ^ Wilson, Reid (July 10, 2018). "Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester". The Hill. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
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  67. ^ a b "Rosendale heads to Washington for meetings, fundraiser". AP NEWS. June 12, 2018.
  68. ^ Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018). "National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana". MTPR. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  69. ^ Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
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  73. ^ "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  74. ^ Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  75. ^ "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express. October 23, 2017.
  76. ^ "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  77. ^ Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  78. ^ "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023. The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana.
  79. ^ Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018.
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  81. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  82. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  83. ^ HarrisX
  84. ^ Change Research
  85. ^ HarrisX
  86. ^ HarrisX
  87. ^ HarrisX
  88. ^ HarrisX
  89. ^ HarrisX
  90. ^ HarrisX
  91. ^ Gravis Marketing
  92. ^ University of Montana
  93. ^ Montana State University Billings
  94. ^ Montana State University Bozeman
  95. ^ Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  96. ^ Gravis Marketing
  97. ^ Axis Research (R-NRSC)
  98. ^ "AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 28, 2018. Retrieved September 28, 2018.
  99. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  100. ^ University of Montana
  101. ^ WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)
  102. ^ Remington Research (R)
  103. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  104. ^ Gravis Marketing
  105. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  106. ^ "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
  107. ^ "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

Official campaign websites

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