2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota

2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout56.27% Decrease
 
Nominee Kevin Cramer Heidi Heitkamp
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Popular vote 179,720 144,376
Percentage 55.11% 44.27%
Cramer:      40—50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Heitkamp:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL

Elected U.S. Senator

Kevin Cramer
Republican

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The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as other federal, state and local elections in North Dakota.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for reelection to a second term.[1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[2] U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to win this seat since 1958. This marked the first time since 1960 that Republicans held both of North Dakota's Senate seats. This also marked the first time since 1959 that North Dakota's congressional delegation was completely Republican.

Background

Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points.[3] The race was expected to be extremely competitive and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.[4]

Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement

See also: Native American Voting Rights Act of 2018 and Voter suppression in the United States

On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States refused to overturn North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address, and doesn't allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations don't use a conventional address system and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans. The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud, but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic.

A group of seven Native American voters led by Richard Brakebill, a U.S. Navy veteran enrolled in the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, challenged HB 1369 as violating the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In the case of Brakebill v. Jaeger, judge Daniel L. Hovland of the District Court of North Dakota ruled in April 2018 that large parts of HB 1369 were unconstitutional, including the prohibition on IDs with PO box addresses.

North Dakota secretary of state Alvin Jaeger appealed the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and requested a stay on Hovland's ruling. The Eighth Circuit initially rejected Jaeger's stay request, with the primary elections in June 2018 not being affected by HB 1369, but revised its opinion in September 2018 and stayed Hovland's ruling. The plaintiffs filed a motion to the Supreme Court, requesting that they take up the case, but this motion was denied. Consequently, Hovland's ruling remained inoperative and HB 1369 was effective for the November 2018 general elections, with many people without the right ID being unable to vote.[5][6][7][8]

Activists reacted to these suppression measures by educating voters, helping them get their identification cards updated, and giving them rides to the polls on election day. This backlash resulted in a Native American turnout that reached an unprecedented level in the election.[9]

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary.[10]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016[10]

Endorsements

Heidi Heitkamp

Federal officials

  • Joe Biden, former Vice President[11]
  • Chuck Hagel, former Secretary of Defense (Republican)[12]
  • Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of Iowa[13]
  • Mary Wakefield, former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services[14]

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representative

Local officials

  • Michael Brown, Mayor of Grand Forks[19]
  • Tim McLean, Casselton Fire Chief[20]
  • Arland Rasmussen, former West Fargo police chief[21]

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Results

Results by county:
  Heitkamp—100%
  Heitkamp—≥90%
Democratic primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) 36,729 99.58%
Democratic–NPL Write-ins 152 0.42%
Total votes 36,883 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Cramer

Presidents of the United States

U.S. Vice Presidents

U.S. Senators

U.S. Governors

N.D State Legislature

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Tom Campbell (withdrawn)

State Senators

State Representatives

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rick
Becker 		Rick
Berg 		Tom
Campbell 		Tammy
Miller 		Kathy
Neset 		Kelly
Schmidt 		Undecided
1892 Polling (R-Campbell)[76] October 11–12, 2017 400 ± 4.0% 3% 24% 32% 1% 4% 1% 35%
1892 Polling (R-Campbell)[76] May 30 – June 1, 2017 400 ± 4.0% 9% 39% 7% – – – 45%

Results

Republican primary results by county
  Cramer ≥ 90%
  Cramer ≥ 80%
  Cramer ≥ 70%
Republican primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Cramer 61,529 87.73%
Republican Thomas O'Neill 8,509 12.13%
Republican Write-ins 95 0.14%
Total votes 70,133 100.00%

General election

Debates

Heitkamp and Cramer greet each other during debate for the 2018 Senate's election.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Lean R (flip) October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[78] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[80] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[81][a] Likely R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[82] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[83] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Heidi Heitkamp (D) $27,353,798 $16,356,442 $11,142,250
Kevin Cramer (R) $5,584,357 $5,003,819 $976,045
Source: Federal Election Commission[84]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D-NPL) 		Kevin
Cramer (R) 		Other Undecided
FOX News[85] October 27–30, 2018 789 LV ± 3.0% 42% 51% 2% 4%
851 RV ± 3.0% 42% 49% 3% 6%
Trafalgar Group (R)[86] October 23–24, 2018 1,498 ± 2.1% 46% 55% – –
Strategic Research Associates[87] October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 40% 56% – 4%
FOX News[88] September 29 – October 2, 2018 704 LV ± 3.5% 41% 53% 2% 3%
801 RV ± 3.5% 41% 50% 3% 5%
Strategic Research Associates[89] September 17–27, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 41% 51% – 8%
FOX News[90] September 8–11, 2018 701 LV ± 3.5% 44% 48% 2% 6%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% 2% 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[91] June 11 – July 2, 2018 457 ± 7.5% 47% 52% – 2%
Mason-Dixon[92] June 13–15, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%
Gravis Marketing[93] February 21–24, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 43% 40% – 17%
The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)[94] February 18–20, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 49% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[95] February 12 – March 5, 2018 821 ± 3.2% 47% 49% 4%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)[96] February 18–20, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 34% 48% 18%

with Tom Campbell

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D) 		Tom
Campbell (R) 		Undecided
1892 Polling (R-Campbell)[76] October 11–12, 2017 500 ± 4.9% 41% 44% 15%
1892 Polling (R-Campbell)[76] May 30 – June 1, 2017 500 ± 4.9% 43% 37% 20%

with Kelly Schmidt

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D) 		Kelly
Schmidt (R) 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[97] September 10–11, 2017 406 ± 4.9% 44% 48% 9%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018[98]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kevin Cramer 179,720 55.11% +5.79%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) 144,376 44.27% −5.97%
Write-in 2,042 0.63% N/A
Total votes 326,138 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic–NPL

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

  1. ^ a b Springer, Patrick (September 13, 2017). "U.S. Sen. Heitkamp announces run for re-election". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  2. ^ "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017. [permanent dead link]
  3. ^ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota? Many analysts believe the race will be between Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R). | RealClearPolitics". Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  4. ^ "2018 Senate race in N.D. could be the most expensive in state's history". KFYR-TV. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  5. ^ Many Native IDs Won't Be Accepted At North Dakota Polling Places from NPR
  6. ^ Has North Dakota Law Made It Harder for Native Americans to Vote? (True) from Snopes
  7. ^ Supreme Court ruling does not mean Native Americans can't vote in North Dakota from Politifact
  8. ^ Republicans wanted to suppress the Native American vote. It's working from The Guardian
  9. ^ "Native American Turnout In North Dakota Reached Unprecedented Levels In Midterms". NPR.
  10. ^ a b Easter, Sam (March 17, 2018). "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp wins Dem-NPL endorsement". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
  11. ^ Easter, Sam (March 17, 2018). "In Grand Forks visit, Joe Biden backs Heitkamp, blasts Trump and boosts everyday values". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on March 18, 2018.
  12. ^ Robillard, Kevin [@Robillard] (October 22, 2018). "Former SecDef Chuck Hagel is set to campaign for Heidi Heitkamp tomorrow and Wednesday in #NDSen" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
  13. ^ Schlecht, Jenny (June 7, 2018). "Former ag secretary Vilsack endorses Heitkamp for Senate". West Fargo Pioneer. Washington. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018.
  14. ^ "Former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, Mary Wakefield, Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Fargo, N.D.: Heidi for North Dakota. Archived from the original on August 13, 2018. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  15. ^ Gillibrand, Kirsten [@SenGillibrand] (September 23, 2018). ".@HeidiHeitkamp's Republican opponent, Kevin Cramer, casually dismissed the sexual assault allegation against Kavanaugh. Cramer has no place in the Senate. Help keep him out by rushing a donation to Heidi's campaign: https://t.co/6BexiNrRq6 #StopKavanaugh" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
  16. ^ Conrad, Kent (October 29, 2018). "Former senator backs senator". The Bismarck Tribune.
  17. ^ Renbaum, Bryan (March 5, 2018). "Former North Dakota senator: Heitkamp will win re-election". The Baltimore Post-Examiner. Washington.
  18. ^ "Congressman Earl Pomeroy Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Grand Forks, N.D.: Heidi for North Dakota. March 30, 2018. Archived from the original on October 24, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  19. ^ Allen, Emily (July 11, 2018). "Grand Forks Mayor Mike Brown Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for Senate". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on July 12, 2018.
  20. ^ Vitali, Ali (July 25, 2018). "New Heitkamp ad puts work done for first responders in the spotlight". NBC News. Washington.
  21. ^ Port, Rob (July 17, 2018). "Bizarro World: Democratic Senate Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp Uses Self-Described Trump Voter to Defend Her Record on Border Security". SayAnythingBlog.com.
  22. ^ Schumer, Amy [@amyschumer] (October 22, 2018). "News" (Tweet). Archived from the original on February 10, 2020 – via Twitter.
  23. ^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  24. ^ "Grace Link, Former First Lady of North Dakota, Supports Heidi for Senate" (Press release). Fargo, N.D.: Heidi for North Dakota. June 12, 2018. Archived from the original on October 24, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  25. ^ "AFGE Endorses Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Reelection" (Press release). Washington: American Federation of Government Employees. August 22, 2018. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018 – via afge.org.
  26. ^ "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Washington, D.C.: End Citizens United. May 3, 2017.
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  33. ^ "Farmers Union PAC Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Fargo: Heidi for Senate. September 11, 2018. Archived from the original on September 20, 2018. Retrieved September 19, 2018.
  34. ^ "North Dakota AFL-CIO endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Fargo, N.D. May 18, 2018. Archived from the original on August 13, 2018. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
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  40. ^ "Air Force vet, anti-immigration candidate jumps into ND U.S..." INFORUM. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
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  43. ^ a b Tom Campbell [@tomfornd] (February 16, 2018). "That's why I am officially endorsing my friend Congressman Kevin Cramer in his Senate race against Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  44. ^ Evans, Bo (February 13, 2018). "Emineth withdraws from Senate race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
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  52. ^ Robillard, Kevin [@Robillard] (September 18, 2017). "News: @club4growth touting Treasurer Kelly Schmidt as candidate against Heitkamp in #NDSen. She's up 48-44 in poll: https://t.co/YLLoaPH8Ye" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  55. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to @KevinCramer on his huge win in North Dakota. We need Kevin in the Senate, and I strongly endorse him. Heidi voted NO on our Tax Cuts, and always will vote no when we need her. Kevin is strong on Crime & Borders, big on Cutting Taxes!". Twitter.
  56. ^ "Vice President Pence to campaign for Cramer in Fargo". kfgo.com. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on July 16, 2018. Retrieved March 27, 2018.
  57. ^ Robert Lauf. "Senator Hoeven joins in supporting @kevincramer for Senate #NDPol". Twitter.
  58. ^ Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
  59. ^ "STATEMENTS: North Dakota Veterans and Sen. Ben Sasse (NE) Criticize Chuck Hagel, Offer Strong Support for Cramer – North Dakota Republican Party". October 23, 2018.
  60. ^ Burgum, Doug [@DougForDakota] (February 16, 2018). "Excited to support @KevinCramer in his run for U.S. Senate. #NDpol #NDsen https://t.co/vAYSCTwMN1" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
  61. ^ Guilfoyle, Kimberly [@kimguilfoyle] (October 31, 2018). "Let's go North Dakota! HUGE turnout of Patriots last night! Pls vote for @kevincramer a proven leader that understands North Dakota values and supports @realDonaldTrump 🇺🇸👍 https://t.co/nUwlQk4ZHl" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
  62. ^ Cramer, Kevin [@kevincramer] (October 23, 2018). "I am deeply honored to have the endorsement of a Medal of Honor recipient and a true hero, Clint Romesha. He is a real-life Captain America. #NDSen https://t.co/DsGHMLEWtl" (Tweet). Archived from the original on June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  64. ^ "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of North Dakota Endorses Cramer, Armstrong". Family Policy Alliance. July 25, 2018.
  65. ^ "Small Business Endorses Congressman Kevin Cramer for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. August 14, 2018.
  66. ^ a b "Right to Life groups back Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate over Heidi Heitkamp". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  67. ^ Cramer, Kevin [@kevincramer] (August 31, 2018). "Grateful to accept the endorsement of the NDFB this afternoon. I will continue to fight for the interests of North Dakota producers in the United States Senate. #NDSen #FarmersForCramer https://t.co/WL7ihCIjiN" (Tweet). Archived from the original on June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  70. ^ "NRA Endorses Cramer for U.S. Senate in North Dakota". NRA-ILA. October 8, 2018. Archived from the original on October 8, 2018. On behalf of our nearly six million members across the country, the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate in North Dakota.
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  75. ^ Campbell, Tom [@tomfornd] (January 22, 2018). "BREAKING: Rich Wardner, North Dakota Senate Majority Leader, Endorses Tom Campbell for U.S. Senate! #NDPol #NDSen https://t.co/O7B3qJtdGX" (Tweet). Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2021 – via Twitter.
  76. ^ a b c d 1892 Polling (R-Campbell)
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  84. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  85. ^ FOX News
  86. ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
  87. ^ Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
  88. ^ FOX News
  89. ^ Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
  90. ^ FOX News
  91. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  92. ^ Mason-Dixon
  93. ^ Gravis Marketing
  94. ^ The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)
  95. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  96. ^ The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)
  97. ^ WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)
  98. ^ "OFFICIAL (WITHOUT RECOUNTS) 2018 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". sos.nd.gov/.

Official campaign websites