2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2024 Missouri Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

November 5, 2024

Nominee Josh Hawley Lucas Kunce Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,651,907 1,243,728 Percentage 55.57% 41.84%

County results Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Kunce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election Josh Hawley Republican Elected U.S. senator Josh Hawley Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.^[1]

Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle due to the state's Republican lean, though some polls showed a close race.^[2][3] Kunce, who had previously run in 2022, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising.^[4][5][6]

Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.6% of the vote to Kunce's 41.8%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race slightly closer than the concurrent presidential election.^[7][8]

Background

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.^[9]

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.^[9]

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.^[10]

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.^[11]

Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.^{[12][13][14][15]}

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator^[16]

Endorsements

Josh Hawley

Organizations

• American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)^[17]
• Senate Conservatives Fund^[18]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Josh Hawley (R)	$22,492,767	$17,267,201	$5,701,081
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Results

Republican primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Josh Hawley (incumbent)	607,602	100.0%
Total votes			607,602	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022^[21]

Eliminated in primary

• Mita Biswas^[22]
• December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board^[23]
• Karla May, state senator (2019–present)^[24]

Withdrawn

• Wesley Bell, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney (ran for U.S. House)^[25]

Endorsements

Lucas Kunce

U.S. representatives

• Bill Clay, former U.S. representative from Missouri's 1st congressional district (1969–2001)^[26]

State officials

• Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State (2013–2017)^[27]
• Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri (2000–2005)^[28]
• Susan Montee, former Missouri State Auditor (2007–2011)^[29]

State senators

• Jacob Hummel, 4th district (2017–2019)^[30]

State representatives

• LaDonna Appelbaum, 71st district (2019–present)^[31]
• Ingrid Burnett, 19th district (2017–present)^[32]
• Steve Butz, 81st district (2019–present)^[33]
• Kimberly-Ann Collins, 77th district (2021–present)^[26]
• Chantelle Nickson-Clark, 67th district (2023–present)^[26]
• Adrian Plank, 47th district (2023–present)^[26]

Municipal officials

• 4 St. Louis County councilors^[34][35]
• Frank White Jr., Jackson County Executive (2016–present)^[36]

Local officials

• Rasheen Aldridge Jr., St. Louis alder from the 14th ward (2023–present) and former state representative from the 78th district (2019–2023)^[26]
• Megan Green, president of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen (2022–present)^[26]
• Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present)^[37] (switched endorsement to Bell)^[38]

Individuals

• Jon Bauman, singer and actor^[26]
• Andy Cohen, talk show host^[39]
• Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer^[40]
• Jon Hamm, actor^[39]
• Howie Klein, McGill University professor^[41]
• Aaron Parnas, lawyer and TikToker^[26]
• Heather Digby Parton, political blogger^[41]

Labor unions

• American Federation of Government Employees^[42]
• International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Missouri^[a][43]
• Kansas City and St. Louis Building and Construction Trades Councils^[44]
• IBEW Local 124^[45]
• International Association of Fire Fighters Missouri^[b][46][47]
• 3 International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers locals^[c][48]
• International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 9^[49]
• International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Local 83^[45]
• International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 12^[45]
• International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101^[45]
• International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 3^[45]
• Iron Workers Local 10^[50]
• 4 Laborers' Union locals^[d][45]
• Missouri AFL-CIO^[51]
• Missouri State Council of Machinists^[52]
• Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local 518^[45]
• SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council^[53]
• SMART Local 2^[45]
• 5 Sprinkler Fitters locals^[e][45]
• Teamsters Locals 41 and 541^[45]
• Tile, Marble, and Terrazzo Workers Local 18^[43]
• UFCW Local 655^[54]
• United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers Locals 2 and 20^[45]

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[55]
• Freedom, Inc.^[56]
• Indivisible St. Louis^[57]
• J Street PAC^[58]
• League of Conservation Voters^[59]
• VoteVets.org^[60]

Karla May

State representatives

• LaKeySha Frazier-Bosley, 79th district (2019–present)^[33]

Local officials

• Michael Butler, St. Louis Recorder of Deeds (2018–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2020–2023), and former state representative from the 79th district (2013–2019)^[61]

Wesley Bell (withdrawn)

State officials

• Bob Holden, former governor of Missouri (2001–2005)^[62]

State representatives

• Deb Lavender, 98th district (2015–2021, 2023–present)^[63]

Municipal officials

• Jean Peters Baker, Jackson County Prosecutor (2011–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2018–2020), and former state representative from the 39th district (2011)^[64]

Local officials

• Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present) (previously endorsed Kunce)^[38]
• Sharon Pace, mayor of Northwoods (2021–present) and former state representative from the 74th district (2009–2017)^[63]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
December Harmon (D)	$16,524[f]	$15,578	$945
Lucas Kunce (D)	$11,193,778	$6,959,981	$4,241,078
Karla May (D)	$53,962	$48,314	$5,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[g]	Margin of error	Mita Biswas	December Harmon	Lucas Kunce	Karla May	Undecided
Remington Research Group[65][A]	July 10–11, 2024	600 (LV)	–	1%	4%	39%	10%	46%

Results

Results by county:

  Kunce

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  May

•   40–50%

Democratic primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Lucas Kunce	255,775	67.64%
	Democratic	Karla May	87,908	23.25%
	Democratic	December Harmon	26,804	7.09%
	Democratic	Mita Biswas	7,647	2.02%
Total votes			378,134	100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

• Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive^[66]
• Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant^[67]
• W. C. Young (Libertarian)^[67]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	W.C. Young	2,437	100.0%
Total votes			2,437	100.0%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Jared Young (I)	$364,377[h]	$253,727	$110,650
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

General election

The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley's involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. 2024 Missouri Amendment 3, which was concurrently on the ballot, passed and legalized abortion in Missouri.

Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.^[68][69][70]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[12]	Solid R	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[13]	Solid R	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]	Safe R	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[71]	Likely R	August 26, 2024
Elections Daily[15]	Safe R	May 4, 2023
CNalysis[72]	Solid R	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[73]	Likely R	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[74]	Safe R	October 23, 2024
538[75]	Solid R	October 26, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Josh Hawley (R)

Individuals

• Harrison Butker, NFL kicker^[76]

Organizations

• Missouri Farm Bureau PAC^[77]

Lucas Kunce (D)

U.S. Representatives

• Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. Representative from IL-16 (2011–2023) (Republican)^[78]

Organizations

• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[79]

Newspapers

• The Kansas City Star^[80]
• St. Louis Post-Dispatch^[81]

Organizations

• National Farmers Union^[82]

Individuals

• Andy Cohen, actor^[83]
• John Goodman, actor^[84]

Jared Young (B)

U.S. Senators

• John Danforth, former U.S. Senator from Missouri (1976–1995) (Republican)^[85]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Josh Hawley (R)	Lucas Kunce (D)	Undecided [i]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight[86]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	51.3%	41.8%	6.9%	Hawley +9.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[87]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	52.6%	44.5%	2.9%	Hawley +8.1%
Average			52.0%	43.2%	4.8%	Hawley +8.8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[g]	Margin of error	Josh Hawley (R)	Lucas Kunce (D)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.[88]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	52%	41%	3%[j]	4%
ActiVote[89]	October 6–27, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	56%	44%	–	–
GQR (D)[90][B]	October 23–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	46%	–	5%
Emerson College[91][C]	October 22–23, 2024	620 (LV)	± 3.9%	51%	41%	2%[k]	7%
ActiVote[92]	September 1 – October 1, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	54%	46%	–	–
Emerson College[93][D]	September 12–13, 2024	850 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	40%	1%	8%
Change Research[94]	September 11–13, 2024	1,237 (RV)	± 3.1%	46%	41%	4%	9%
GQR Research (D)[95][E]	September 6–12, 2024	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	50%	46%	2%	2%
52%	48%	–	–
Remington Research Group (R)[96][A]	September 4–5, 2024	816 (LV)	–	52%	37%	–	11%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[97]	August 8–16, 2024	900 (LV)	± 3.8%	53%	42%	–	4%
Emerson College[98]	June 17–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	38%	5%	10%
Remington Research Group (R)[99][A]	March 6–8, 2024	713 (LV)	± 3.9%	53%	39%	–	8%
Emerson College[100]	January 23–28, 2024	1,830 (RV)	± 2.2%	43%	30%	7%	20%
Show Me Victories (D)[101]	October 26–31, 2023	407 (RV)	± 4.9%	46%	42%	4%	8%
Emerson College[102]	October 1–4, 2023	491 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	32%	5%	17%
GQR Research (D)[103][E]	August 16–19, 2023	863 (LV)	± 3.3%	44%	43%	–	12%

Hypothetical polling

Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[g]	Margin of error	Josh Hawley (R)	Wesley Bell (D)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[102]	October 1–4, 2023	491 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	34%	5%	17%

Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Green	Better
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Hawley	Kunce	Young	Kline	Young
1	Sep. 20, 2024	Missouri Press Association	David Lieb	YouTube	P	P	N	P	P

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri^[104]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Josh Hawley (incumbent)	1,651,907	55.57%	+4.17
	Democratic	Lucas Kunce	1,243,728	41.84%	−3.73
	Libertarian	W. C. Young	35,671	1.20%
	Better Party	Jared Young	21,111	0.71%
	Green	Nathan Kline	20,123	0.68%
	Write-in		19	0.00%
Total votes			2,972,559	100.0%
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Clay (Largest city: Liberty)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Platte (Largest city: Kansas City)

By congressional district

Hawley won 5 of 8 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Kunce, including one that elected a Republican.^[105]

District	Kunce	Hawley	Representative
1st	82%	16%	Wesley Bell
2nd	50%	48%	Ann Wagner
3rd	38%	59%	Bob Onder
4th	36%	60%	Mark Alford
5th	61%	36%	Emanuel Cleaver
6th	39%	58%	Sam Graves
7th	31%	65%	Eric Burlison
8th	28%	69%	Jason Smith

Notes

1. Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
2. Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
3. Locals 1, 27, and 63
4. Locals 264, 663, and 1290
5. Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
6. $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
7. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
8. $245,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
9. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
10. "Some other candidate" with 3%
11. Young (L) with 1%; Kline (G) with 1%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Missouri Scout
2. Poll sponsored by IAFF Local 2665
3. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
4. Poll sponsored by The Hill
5. Poll sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

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External links

Official campaign websites

• Josh Hawley (R) for Senate
• Lucas Kunce (D) for Senate
• Jared Young (I) for Senate