2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
100%
as of 10:29 AM CST
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,656,391 1,518,385
Percentage 50.89% 46.65%
County Results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Minnesota
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Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota is seen as a moderately blue state. It has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide, and it was also the only state to not back Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landside reelection. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Minnesota was considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the Democratic presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[5] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.[6] Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.[7] This decision was seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues were expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, and potentially secure the state for the Democratic ticket. Following Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, Walz would've become the third vice president from Minnesota had he been elected.[8]

Harris won Minnesota, but Trump flipped three counties (Winona, Blue Earth, and Nicollet) that Biden had won in 2020 and became the first Republican presidential nominee to win Carlton County since Herbert Hoover in 1928.[9]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024[10][11]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 232,846 68.94% 27 0 27
Nikki Haley 97,182 28.77% 12 0 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,085 1.21% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,470 0.44% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,431 0.42% 0 0 0
Write-ins 720 0.21% 0 0 0
Total: 337,014 100.00% 39 0 39


Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 171,278 70.1% 64 64
Uncommitted 45,914 18.8% 11 11
Dean Phillips 18,960 7.8%
Marianne Williamson 3,459 1.4%
Write-in votes 2,000 0.8%
Jason Palmer 758 0.3%
Cenk Uygur 692 0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato 372 0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo 323 0.1%
Frankie Lozada 290 0.1%
Eban Cambridge 235 0.1%
Total: 244,281 100% 75 17 92
Main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) 759 28.84% -
Dennis Schuller 459 17.44% 7
Vermin Supreme 397 15.08% 6
Rudy Reyes 365 13.87% 5
Edward Forchion 168 6.38% 2
Willie Nelson (write-in) 19 0.72% 0
Other write-ins 465 17.67% -
Total: 2,632 100.00% 20
Source:[13]

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Minnesota:[14]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[15] Likely D August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Lean D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely D August 6, 2024
The Economist[18] Likely D August 23, 2024
CNalysis[19] Solid D August 6, 2024
CNN[20] Lean D August 25, 2024
538[21] Likely D August 23, 2024
NBC News[22] Likely D October 6, 2024
YouGov[23] Likely D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[24] Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin

270ToWin

October 16–November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.8% 43.6% 6.6% Harris +6.2%
538 through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.0% 44.2% 5.8% Harris +5.8%
Silver Bulletin through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 50.4% 43.9% 5.7% Harris +6.5%
The Hill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 49.9% 45.5% 4.6% Harris +4.4%
Average 50.0% 44.3% 5.7% Harris +5.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[25] November 3–4, 2024 2,065 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 4%
Research Co.[26] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
ActiVote[27] October 9 – November 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 48% –
SurveyUSA[28][A] October 24–28, 2024 728 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% 5%[c]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[29][B] October 24–26, 2024 959 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%[c]
CES/YouGov[30] October 1–25, 2024 1,278 (A) – 52% 44% 4%
1,275 (LV) 53% 43% 4%
Embold Research/MinnPost[31] October 16–22, 2024 1,734 (LV) ± 2.4% 48% 45% 7%[d]
ActiVote[32] September 10 – October 9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% –
SurveyUSA[33][A] September 23–26, 2024 646 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 44% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[34][B] September 19−22, 2024 993 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%
Mason-Dixon[35][C] September 16−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 9%[c]
Morning Consult[36] September 9−18, 2024 517 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% 7%
Embold Research/MinnPost[37] September 4–8, 2024 1,616 (LV) ± 2.8% 49% 45% 6%[e]
Morning Consult[36] August 30 – September 8, 2024 501 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%
SurveyUSA[38][A] August 27–29, 2024 635 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 43% 9%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
SurveyUSA[39][A] July 23–25, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 10%[f]
Fox News[40] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[25] November 3–4, 2024 2,065 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%[g]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41] October 12–14, 2024 544 (LV) – 51% 43% – 1% 0% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42] September 27 – October 2, 2024 551 (LV) – 51% 43% – 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[43] September 16–19, 2024 703 (LV) – 50% 44% – 1% 0% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44] September 6–9, 2024 617 (LV) – 51% 44% – 0% 0% 5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Chism Strategies[45] October 28–30, 2024 534 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 43% 1% – 1% 0% 7%[h]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[46] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 47% 40% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[47] July 31 – August 3, 2024 538 (LV) – 46% 41% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[48] July 22–24, 2024 475 (LV) – 44% 41% 6% – 1% 0% 8%
Fox News[40] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 7% 1% 1% – 3%


Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[49] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 51%[i] 49% –
SurveyUSA[50][A] June 12–16, 2024 626 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 41% 12%[j]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[51][D] June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
SurveyUSA[52][A] May 8–11, 2024 625 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 42% 14%[k]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[53][D] April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
John Zogby Strategies[54][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 46% 44% 10%
SurveyUSA[55][A] April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%[l]
SurveyUSA[56][A] February 23–28, 2024 1,603 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 38% 20%[k]
SurveyUSA[57][A] January 24–29, 2024 1,594 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 39% 19%[k]
Big Data Poll (R)[58] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 38% 25%[m]
784 (LV) 39% 39% 22%[n]
Embold Research/MinnPost[59] November 14–17, 2023 1,519 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College[60] October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[61] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 48% 40% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[49] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 42% 6% 1% 1% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[51][D] June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 7% 2% 2% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[53][D] April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 40% 9% 1% 1% 9%
Big Data Poll (R)[58] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 36% 8% 2% 2% 17%[o]
784 (LV) 37% 37% 9% 2% 2% 13%[o]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[62][C] June 3–5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 6% 9%
Big Data Poll (R)[58] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 35% 9% 21%[p]
784 (LV) 38% 36% 9% 17%[p]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[54][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 40% 46% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[54][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 47% 36% 17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[40] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[40] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 6%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[61] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 45% 43% 12%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota[63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL)
1,656,391 50.89 −1.51%
Republican
1,518,385 46.65 +1.37%
Libertarian
15,603 0.48
Green
16,637 0.51
Justice For All
3,380 0.10
Socialism and Liberation
3,327 0.10
Socialist Workers
745 0.02
Independent
3,087 0.09
We the People
24,408 0.75
Write-in 13,132 0.40
Total votes

Maps

Results by precinct in Minneapolis[64]
  Harris
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%

By congressional district

Harris and Trump each won 4 of 8 congressional districts, all of which voted for the same party in the simultaneous House Elections.[65]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 43% 55% Brad Finstad
2nd 52% 46% Angie Craig
3rd 59% 38% Dean Phillips (118th Congress)
Kelly Morrison (119th Congress)
4th 66% 31% Betty McCollum
5th 79% 18% Ilhan Omar
6th 39% 59% Tom Emmer
7th 31% 67% Michelle Fischbach
8th 42% 56% Pete Stauber

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%
  4. ^ "Other" with 5%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Other" with 4%
  7. ^ "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Other" with 6%
  11. ^ a b c "Other" with 9%
  12. ^ "Other" with 11%
  13. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  14. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 13%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  15. ^ a b "Would not vote" with 3%
  16. ^ a b "Another third party candidate" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  17. ^ Placeholder for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KARE11, Minnesota Public Radio & the Star Tribune
  4. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  5. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
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  5. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. ^ McFadden, Alyce; Robinson, Taylor; Abraham, Leanne; O'Brien, Rebecca Davis (April 29, 2024). "Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
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  8. ^ Yilek, Caitlin; Cordes, Nancy; Navarro, Aaron; Cavazos, Nidia; Woodall, Hunter; Jiang, Weijia; O'Keefe, Ed (August 6, 2024). "Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate". CBS News. Archived from the original on August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
  9. ^ Spewak, Danny (November 6, 2024). Trump lost Minnesota, but 4 counties flip to red. KARE11. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
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  39. ^ "Democrats' Pivot To Kamala Produces Immediate Results in Minnesota, Where VP Harris Now Leads Former President Trump By 10 Points; Klobuchar Widens Leads in Likely Senate Match-Ups, Democratic Candidates Increase Odds in MN House Races; JD Vance Not Seen As Great VP Choice". SurveyUSA. July 25, 2024.
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  63. ^ "Index - Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  64. ^ "Home - Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  65. ^ "Home - Election Results".