2008 United States Senate election in Texas

2008 United States Senate election in Texas
	County results ; Cornyn: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Noriega: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
U.S. senator before election; John Cornyn; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; John Cornyn; Republican

The 2008 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn defeated Democratic nominee Rick Noriega, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, to win re-election to a second term in office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Gene Kelly, U.S. Air Force veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000
Ray McMurrey, teacher at Mary Carroll High School
Rick Noriega, State Representative
Rhett Smith, U.S. Navy veteran and auditor at the Texas Department of Human Services

Results

Democratic primary^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Rick Noriega	1,110,579	51.01%
	Democratic	Gene Kelly	584,966	26.87%
	Democratic	Ray McMurrey	269,402	12.37%
	Democratic	Rhett Smith	213,305	9.75%
Total votes			2,178,252	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator
Larry Kilgore, conservative/Secessionist activist

Results

Republican Primary^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Cornyn (incumbent)	997,216	81.48%	+4.17%
	Republican	Larry Kilgore	226,649	18.52%	+0.00%

General election

Candidates

John Cornyn (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Rick Noriega (D), State Representative
Yvonne Adams Schick (L), real estate entrepreneur^[3]

Campaign

Cornyn, running as an incumbent, had a 42% approval rating with a 43% disapproval rating in June 2007.^[4] Texas is a red state, that Republican presidential nominee John McCain won with over 55% of the vote. Cornyn slightly underperformed McCain. However, Noriega underperformed both 2008 Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas and Cornyn's 2002 opponent, Ron Kirk, with Noriega receiving just 42.8% of the vote.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[5]	Safe R	October 23, 2008
CQ Politics^[6]	Likely R	October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report^[7]	Safe R	November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics^[8]	Safe R	November 4, 2008

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Rick Noriega (D)	John Cornyn (R)
Rasmussen^[9]	September 18, 2007	30%	53%
Research 2000^[10]	September 24–26, 2007	35%	51%
Rasmussen Reports	May 1, 2008	43%	47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos^[11]	May 5–7, 2008	44%	48%
Baselice & Associates^[12]	May 20–25, 2008	33%	49%
Rasmussen Reports	June 2, 2008	35%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	June 25, 2008	35%	48%
Rasmussen Reports	July 30, 2008	39%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	September 29, 2008	43%	50%
Rasmussen Reports	October 21, 2008	40%	55%

Results

2008 Texas U.S. Senate general election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Cornyn (incumbent)	4,337,469	54.82%	−0.48%
	Democratic	Rick Noriega	3,389,365	42.84%	−0.50%
	Libertarian	Yvonne Adams Schick	185,241	2.34%	+1.55%
Majority			948,104	11.98%
Turnout			7,912,075	58.28%
	Republican hold		Swing