2012 United States Senate election in Florida
2012 United States Senate election in Florida Turnout 63.5% (voting eligible)[ 1]
County results Congressional district results
Nelson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90%Mack: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
The 2012 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election , other elections to the House and Senate , as well as various state and local elections. The primary election was held August 14, 2012. Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson won reelection to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative Connie Mack IV (whose father, Connie Mack III was Nelson's direct predecessor in that Senate seat) by 13%, winning 55% to 42%. Nelson defeated Mack by over 1 million votes.
Until Donald Trump won 4.6 million votes in the 2016 presidential election and Marco Rubio won 4.8 million votes in the 2016 Senate election , Nelson recorded the most votes in Florida history. As of 2023[update] , this was the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election in Florida. This is also the last time a Democrat carried the following counties in a statewide election: Brevard , Flagler , Franklin , Hamilton , Hendry , Hernando , Liberty , Madison , Manatee , Marion , Okeechobee , Pasco , Polk , Sarasota , and Volusia .
Democratic primary
Candidates
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Qualified
Withdrew
Declined
Jeff Atwater , Chief Financial Officer of Florida [ 16]
Allan Bense , former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives [ 17]
Vern Buchanan , U.S. Representative[ 18]
Jeb Bush , former Florida governor[ 19]
Dean Cannon , Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives [ 20]
Nicholas M. Loeb , businessman[ 21]
Will McBride, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006 [ 22]
Tom Rooney , U.S. Representative[ 23]
Chris Ruddy , founder and CEO of Newsmax [ 24]
Allen West , U.S. Representative[ 25] [ 26]
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
George LeMieux
Connie Mack IV
Mike McCalister
Dave Weldon
Someone else
Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 27]
May 31 – June 3, 2012
448
±4.6%
13%
34%
10%
6%
9%
28%
Quinnipiac [ 28]
June 12–18, 2012
698
±3.7%
8%
41%
5%
3%
1%
39%
Public Policy Polling [ 29]
July 26–29, 2012
500
±4.4%
—
47%
10%
14%
6%
23%
Endorsements
George LeMieux (withdrawn)
Connie Mack IV
Mitt Romney , presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for President of the United States in the 2012 election and former Governor of Massachusetts .[ 34]
Jeb Bush , former Governor of Florida , brother of President George W. Bush and Son of President George H. W. Bush (R-FL)[ 35]
Connie Mack III , former U.S. Senator (R-FL) and Mack's father[ 36]
Mary Bono Mack , U.S. Congresswoman (R-CA) and Mack's wife[ 37]
Ron Paul , U.S congressman and 2012 Presidential Candidate
Rand Paul , U.S. Senator (R-KY)[ 38]
Mike Lee , U.S. Senator (R-UT)[ 39]
Luis Fortuno , Governor of Puerto Rico [ 40]
Jeff Miller , U.S. Representative[ 41]
Tom Rooney , U.S. Representative[ 42]
Pam Bondi , Attorney General of Florida [ 43]
Adam Putnam , Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and former Congressman[ 44]
Sean Hannity , author and talk show host[ 45]
Mike Haridopolos , State Senator and Senate President (R-FL)[ 46]
GOProud [ 47]
Results
Results by county: 40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
General election
From a long way out, Nelson appeared to be vulnerable, with some earlier polls showing Mack leading. However, in the last few weeks with new polls conducted, it appeared as though Nelson was headed for a victory. The last poll placed him five percentage points ahead of Mack; Nelson would win easily by 13 percentage points. Nelson performed well in Southeast Florida (the Miami area), Tampa , Gainesville , typically Democratic areas. Nelson however managed to win in areas that typically lean Republican. For example, Nelson won in Duval County home of Jacksonville , and Volusia County home of Daytona Beach . Nelson's ability to outperform President Obama led to him winning the election easily. Obama would still win Florida, but by just about 74,000 votes, and less than a percentage point. Nelson began his third term in the Senate on January 3, 2013.
Candidates
Debates
Only one debate was held, hosted by Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association occurred on October 17 at the Nova Southeastern University campus in Davie.
Fundraising
Candidate (party)
Receipts
Disbursements
Cash on hand
Debt
Bill Nelson (D)
$13,404,998
$15,494,167
$994,324
$0
Connie Mack (R)
$7,272,224
$7,526,150
$155,076
$81,880
Chris Borgia (I)
$12,344
$12,198
$145
$9,950
Bill Gaylor (I)
$19,604
$19,195
$0
$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [ 50] [ 51] [ 52] [ 53]
Top contributors
Bill Nelson
Contribution
Connie Mack
Contribution
Bill Gaylor
Contribution
Morgan & Morgan
$138,150
Club for Growth
$189,168
Bill & Sheila Gaylor Insurance Professionals
$7,905
Finmeccanica
$71,967
Elliott Management Corporation
$46,997
Circle Redmont
$1,432
InDyne, Inc.
$64,735
Koch Industries
$33,500
Harris Corporation
$59,750
Vestar Capital Partners
$32,000
Akerman Senterfitt LLP
$59,300
Island Doctors
$27,400
Greenberg Traurig
$52,589
Adams & Diaco
$25,000
Kindred Healthcare
$21,000
Health Management Associates
$21,000
Holland & Knight
$46,747
Flo-Sun Inc
$18,500
Leon Medical Centers
$45,800
US Sugar Corporation
$18,000
Vestar Capital Partners
$40,650
MasTec, Inc.
$17,800
Source: OpenSecrets [ 54]
Top industries
Bill Nelson
Contribution
Connie Mack
Contribution
Bill Gaylor
Contribution
Lawyers /Law firms
$2,383,484
Retired
$885,121
Retired
$1,500
Retired
$938,280
Republican/Conservative
$412,944
Real Estate
$606,253
Financial Institutions
$360,334
Health Professionals
$529,282
Real Estate
$298,642
Lobbyists
$493,087
Leadership PACs
$280,500
Financial Institutions
$418,915
Misc Finance
$216,836
Hospitals /Nursing Homes
$364,617
Health Professionals
$199,159
Leadership PACs
$337,000
Lawyers/Law Firms
$169,921
Insurance Industry
$319,788
Petroleum Industry
$136,400
Health Services /HMOs
$276,500
Business Services
$128,777
Source: OpenSecrets [ 55]
Independent expenditures
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[ 56] In Florida, the money was to be spent by its affiliate, American Crossroads .[ 56]
Predictions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Connie Mack IV (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 61]
October 9–10, 2010
448
±4.6%
42%
33%
—
25%
Public Policy Polling [ 62]
December 17–20, 2010
1,034
±3.0%
44%
36%
—
20%
Mason-Dixon [ 63]
February 9–10, 2011
625
±4.0%
45%
40%
—
15%
Public Policy Polling [ 64]
March 24–27, 2011
500
±4.4%
47%
34%
—
18%
Quinnipiac [ 65]
October 31 – November 7, 2011
1,185
±2.9%
42%
40%
1%
16%
Rasmussen Reports [ 66]
November 17, 2011
500
±4.5%
39%
43%
5%
13%
Public Policy Polling [ 67]
November 28 – December 1, 2011
700
±3.7%
46%
35%
—
19%
Quinnipiac [ 68]
January 4–8, 2012
1,412
±2.6%
41%
40%
1%
16%
Suffolk University [ 69]
January 22–24, 2012
600
±4.4%
42%
32%
1%
25%
Mason-Dixon [ 70]
January 24–26, 2012
800
±3.5%
45%
42%
—
13%
Rasmussen Reports [ 71]
February 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
41%
41%
5%
12%
Rasmussen Reports [ 72]
March 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
36%
43%
5%
16%
Quinnipiac [ 73]
March 20–26, 2012
1,228
±2.8%
44%
36%
3%
17%
Public Policy Polling [ 74]
April 12–15, 2012
700
±3.7%
47%
37%
—
17%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
April 25, 2012
500
±4.5%
47%
36%
10%
7%
Quinnipiac [ 76]
May 15–21, 2012
1,722
±2.4%
41%
42%
3%
15%
Marist [ 77]
May 17–20, 2012
1,078
±3.0%
46%
42%
—
12%
Public Policy Polling [ 27]
May 31 – June 3, 2012
642
±3.9%
49%
36%
—
15%
Quinnipiac [ 28]
June 12–18, 2012
1,697
±2.4%
43%
39%
—
15%
Quinnipiac [ 78]
June 19–25, 2012
1,200
±2.8%
41%
40%
1%
17%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
July 9, 2012
500
±4.5%
37%
46%
7%
10%
Mason-Dixon [ 79]
July 9–11, 2012
800
±3.5%
47%
42%
—
11%
Survey USA [ 80]
July 17–19, 2012
647
±3.9%
42%
48%
2%
8%
Public Policy Polling [ 29]
July 26–29, 2012
871
±3.3%
45%
43%
—
13%
Quinnipiac [ 81]
July 24–30, 2012
1,177
±2.9%
47%
40%
1%
12%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
August 15, 2012
500
±4.5%
47%
40%
3%
10%
Quinnipiac [ 82]
August 15–21, 2012
1,241
±2.8%
50%
41%
—
9%
Public Policy Polling [ 83]
August 31 – September 2, 2012
1,548
±2.5%
45%
38%
—
17%
SurveyUSA [ 84]
September 7–9, 2012
596
±4.1%
47%
36%
3%
9%
NBC /WSJ /Marist Poll [ 85]
September 9–11, 2012
980
±3.1%
51%
37%
—
12%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
September 12, 2012
500
±4.5%
47%
40%
5%
8%
Fox News Poll [ 86]
September 16–18, 2012
829
±3.0%
49%
35%
2%
12%
TBT /Miami Herald [ 87]
September 17–19, 2012
800
±3.5%
48%
40%
—
11%
Suffolk University [ 88]
September 27–30, 2012
600
±4.0%
40%
34%
5%
20%
NBC /WSJ /Marist Poll [ 89]
September 30 – October 1, 2012
890
±3.3%
52%
41%
—
7%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
October 4, 2012
500
±4.5%
52%
41%
1%
6%
University of North Florida [ 90]
October 1–9, 2012
800
±3.5%
50%
40%
—
10%
NBC /WSJ /Marist Poll [ 91]
October 7–9, 2012
988
±3.1%
52%
39%
—
9%
TBT /Miami Herald [ 92]
October 8–10, 2012
800
±3.5%
47%
42%
4%
7%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
October 11, 2012
750
±4.0%
46%
45%
5%
5%
Public Policy Polling [ 93]
October 12–14, 2012
791
±3.4%
45%
37%
—
18%
SurveyUSA [ 94]
October 17–18, 2012
600
±4.1%
48%
40%
4%
8%
Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers /WPTV [ 95]
October 17–18, 2012
800
±4.0%
45%
41%
—
14%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
October 18, 2012
750
±4.0%
48%
43%
2%
7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [ 96]
October 18–20, 2012
502
±4.5%
56%
39%
4%
—
Pharos Research [ 97]
October 19–21, 2012
759
±3.6%
52%
44%
—
5%
Sunshine State News /VSS [ 98]
October 22–24, 2012
1,001
±3.1%
49%
44%
—
7%
Mason-Dixon [ 99]
October 22–24, 2012
625
±4.0%
47%
44%
—
9%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
October 25, 2012
750
±4.0%
49%
46%
2%
3%
WFLA-TV /SurveyUSA [ 100]
October 25–27, 2012
595
±4.1%
48%
41%
4%
7%
CBS /Quinnipiac University [ 101]
October 23–28, 2012
1,073
±3.0%
52%
39%
—
9%
Public Policy Polling [ 102]
October 26–28, 2012
687
±3.7%
50%
42%
—
9%
Zogby /Newsmax [ 103]
October 26–28, 2012
827
±3.5%
50%
41%
—
9%
Zogby /Newsmax [ 104]
October 27–29, 2012
828
±3.5%
50%
41%
—
9%
Gravis Marketing [ 105]
October 30, 2012
549
±4.2%
49%
46%
—
5%
Reuters /Ipsos [ 106]
October 29–31, 2012
716
±4.2%
52%
42%
1%
6%
NBC /WSJ /Marist [ 107]
October 30 – November 1, 2012
1,545
±2.5%
52%
43%
1%
5%
Mason-Dixon [ 108]
October 30 – November 1, 2012
800
±3.5%
49%
43%
4%
—
Angus Reid Public Opinion [ 109]
November 1–3, 2012
525
±4.3%
53%
45%
2%
—
Public Policy Polling [ 110]
November 3–4, 2012
955
±3.2%
51%
46%
—
3%
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Adam Hasner
George LeMieux
Connie Mack IV
Mike McCalister
Craig Miller
Other/ Undecided
Quinnipiac [ 111]
July 27 – August 2, 2011
510
±4.3%
6%
12%
—
15%
8%
60%
Quinnipiac [ 112]
September 14–19, 2011
374
±5.1%
5%
17%
—
5%
11%
62%
Public Policy Polling [ 113]
September 22–25, 2011
472
±4.5%
9%
13%
—
17%
3%
58%
Quinnipiac [ 65]
October 31 – November 7, 2011
513
±4.3%
2%
9%
32%
6%
2%
51%
Public Policy Polling [ 114]
November 28–30, 2011
470
±4.5%
3%
12%
40%
4%
3%
38%
Dixie Strategies /First Coast News [ 115]
January 23–25, 2012
2,567
±1.93%
3.81%
6.91%
28.88%
3.36%
1.78%
55.26%
Mason-Dixon [ 70]
January 24–26, 2012
500
±4.5%
4%
12%
38%
7%
1%
38%
Miami Herald /War Room Logistics [ 116]
January 27, 2012
1,632
±2.5%
2.7%
6.2%
33.0%
3.2%
2.3%
52.6%
Public Policy Polling [ 117]
January 28, 2012
387
±5.0%
4%
6%
36%
5%
3%
46%
Public Policy Polling [ 118]
January 28–29, 2012
733
±3.6%
4%
8%
36%
5%
3%
44%
Public Policy Polling [ 119]
January 28–30, 2012
1,087
±3%
3%
8%
39%
4%
3%
42%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mike Haridopolos
Adam Hasner
George LeMieux
Mike McCalister
Other/ Undecided
Sunshine State Communications [ 120]
May 12–13, 2011
458
±4.58%
11%
0%
9%
4%
64%
Quinnipiac [ 121]
May 17–23, 2011
463
±4.6%
13%
4%
14%
—
64%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Vern Buchanan
Jennifer Carroll
Mike Haridopolos
Adam Hasner
George LeMieux
Nick Loeb
Will McBride
Mike McCalister
Joe Scarborough
Daniel Webster
Other/ Undecided
Suffolk University /7 News [ 122]
April 10–12, 2011
217
±4%
5%
3%
2%
1%
4%
1%
3%
0%
6%
7%
67%
General election
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Vern Buchanan (R)
Other
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [ 123]
August 18–22, 2011
625
±4.0%
45%
35%
—
20%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Adam Hasner (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 62]
December 17–20, 2010
1,034
±3.0%
46%
30%
—
25%
Mason-Dixon [ 63]
February 9–10, 2011
625
±4.0%
46%
24%
—
30%
Public Policy Polling [ 64]
March 24–27, 2011
500
±4.4%
48%
32%
—
20%
Quinnipiac [ 121]
May 17–23, 2011
1,196
±2.8%
48%
23%
3%
24%
Public Policy Polling [ 125]
June 16–19, 2011
848
±3.4%
47%
35%
—
19%
Mason-Dixon [ 123]
August 18–22, 2011
625
±4.0%
45%
34%
—
21%
Public Policy Polling [ 126]
September 22–25, 2011
476
±4.5%
49%
35%
—
16%
Rasmussen Reports [ 66]
November 17, 2011
500
±4.5%
40%
31%
9%
19%
Public Policy Polling [ 67]
November 28 – December 1, 2011
700
±3.7%
48%
33%
—
19%
Suffolk University [ 127]
January 22–24, 2012
600
±4.4%
47%
23%
2%
28%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
George LeMieux (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 124]
July 16–18, 2010
900
±3.26%
49%
28%
—
23%
Public Policy Polling [ 62]
December 17–20, 2010
1,034
±3.0%
47%
36%
—
17%
Mason-Dixon [ 63]
February 9–10, 2011
625
±4.0%
49%
35%
—
16%
Public Policy Polling [ 64]
March 24–27, 2011
500
±4.4%
48%
33%
—
19%
Quinnipiac [ 121]
May 17–23, 2011
1,196
±2.8%
47%
27%
2%
22%
Public Policy Polling [ 125]
June 16–19, 2011
848
±3.4%
46%
35%
—
19%
Mason-Dixon [ 123]
August 18–22, 2011
625
±4.0%
49%
34%
—
17%
Public Policy Polling [ 126]
September 22–25, 2011
476
±4.5%
49%
35%
—
15%
Rasmussen Reports [ 66]
November 17, 2011
500
±4.5%
39%
33%
10%
18%
Public Policy Polling [ 67]
November 28 – December 1, 2011
700
±3.7%
47%
32%
—
20%
Suffolk University [ 128]
January 22–24, 2012
600
±4.4%
46%
22%
2%
30%
Mason-Dixon [ 70]
January 24–26, 2012
800
±3.5%
48%
33%
—
19%
Rasmussen Reports [ 71]
February 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
45%
35%
5%
15%
Rasmussen Reports [ 72]
March 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
41%
38%
5%
17%
Public Policy Polling [ 74]
April 12–15, 2012
700
±3.7%
48%
34%
—
18%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
April 25, 2012
500
±4.5%
44%
30%
9%
17%
Marist [ 77]
May 17–20, 2012
1,078
±3%
46%
42%
—
12%
Public Policy Polling [ 27]
May 31 – June 3, 2012
642
±3.9%
48%
35%
—
17%
Quinnipiac [ 28]
June 12–18, 2012
1,697
±2.4%
47%
32%
1%
17%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Rush Limbaugh (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 61]
October 9–10, 2010
448
±4.6%
50%
36%
—
14%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Mike McCalister (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 29]
July 26–29, 2012
871
±3.3%
45%
40%
—
15%
Quinnipiac [ 28]
June 12–18, 2012
1,697
±2.4%
45%
34%
1%
18%
Public Policy Polling [ 27]
May 31 – June 3, 2012
642
±3.9%
47%
33%
—
20%
Rasmussen Reports [ 75]
April 25, 2012
500
±4.5%
48%
29%
7%
15%
Public Policy Polling [ 74]
April 12–15, 2012
700
±3.7%
47%
35%
—
19%
Rasmussen Reports [ 72]
March 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
42%
38%
4%
15%
Rasmussen Reports [ 71]
February 13, 2012
500
±4.5%
43%
37%
5%
15%
Suffolk University [ 129]
January 22–24, 2012
600
±4.4%
45%
26%
2%
28%
Public Policy Polling [ 67]
November 28 – December 1, 2011
700
±3.7%
47%
32%
—
21%
Public Policy Polling [ 126]
September 22–25, 2011
476
±4.5%
47%
34%
—
19%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Craig Miller (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 67]
November 28 – December 1, 2011
700
±3.7%
49%
30%
—
21%
Public Policy Polling [ 126]
September 22–25, 2011
476
±4.5%
49%
32%
—
19%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Joe Scarborough (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 64]
March 24–27, 2011
500
±4.4%
45%
32%
—
22%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Jimmy Wales (R)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ 64]
March 24–27, 2011
500
±4.4%
47%
28%
—
25%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Bill Nelson (D)
Allen West (R)
Other
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [ 123]
August 18–22, 2011
625
±4.0%
44%
38%
—
18%
Results
State Senate district results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Nelson won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including ten that elected Republicans.[ 131]
See also
References
^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates" . George Mason University . Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013 .
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