2006 United States Senate election in Florida

2006 United States Senate election in Florida

November 7, 2006

Nominee Bill Nelson Katherine Harris Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,890,548 1,826,127 Percentage 60.30% 38.10%

County results Nelson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Harris:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Bill Nelson Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Bill Nelson Democratic

The 2006 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson won re-election to a second term.

Background

During the Terri Schiavo case in March 2005, a talking points memo on the controversy was written by Brian Darling, the legal counsel to Republican Senator Mel Martínez of Florida.^[1] The memo suggested the Schiavo case offered "a great political issue" that would appeal to the party's base (core supporters) and could be used against Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat from Florida who was up for reelection in 2006, because he had refused to co-sponsor the bill which came to be known as the Palm Sunday Compromise.^[2] Bill Nelson was nevertheless reelected as Senator on November 7, 2006, with 60% of the vote.

Florida was one of five Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that George W. Bush won in the 2004 presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

• LeRoy Collins Jr., retired naval officer and son of former Governor LeRoy Collins
• Katherine Harris, U.S. Representative and former Florida Secretary of State
• Will McBride, attorney
• Peter Monroe, businessman and former COO of the Federal Housing Administration^[3]

Endorsements

• The Bradenton Herald: McBride^[4]
• Florida (Jacksonville) Times-Union: Collins or Monroe^[5]
• Gainesville Sun: Collins^[6]
• Lakeland Ledger: Collins
• Miami Herald: Collins^[7]
• Naples Daily News: Collins^[6]
• Orlando Sentinel: McBride^[8]
• Palm Beach Post: Monroe^[6]
• Sarasota Herald-Tribune: no endorsement
• South Florida (Fort Lauderdale) Sun Sentinel: Monroe^[6]
• St. Petersburg Times: Collins^[6]
• Tampa Tribune: Collins^[6]

Polling

Poll Source	Date	LeRoy Collins Jr.	Katherine Harris	Will McBride	Peter Monroe
Strategic Vision[9]	July 26, 2006	9%	45%	22%	7%
Mason-Dixon[10]	July 26, 2006	8%	36%	11%	2%
Quinnipiac[11]	July 27, 2006	6%	40%	21%	3%
Scroth Eldon & Associates[12]	August 11, 2006	9%	28%	11%	5%
SurveyUSA[13]	August 24, 2006	20%	43%	15%	7%
Strategic Vision[14]	August 30, 2006	19%	38%	21%	5%
Quinnipiac[15]	August 31, 2006	11%	38%	22%	3%
SurveyUSA[16]	August 31, 2006	12%	45%	22%	5%
Mason-Dixon[17]	September 2, 2006	17%	38%	21%	2%
Primary Results	September 5, 2006	15%	49%	30%	5%

Republican Primary results by county

  Harris

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  McBride

•   30–40%

Results

Republican primary results^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Katherine Harris	474,871	49.4
	Republican	Will McBride	287,741	30.0
	Republican	LeRoy Collins Jr.	146,712	15.3
	Republican	Peter Monroe	51,330	5.3
Total votes			960,654	100.0

General election

Candidates

• Floyd Ray Frazier (Independent)
• Katherine Harris, former Florida Secretary of State and former U.S. Representative (Republican)
• Brian Moore, retired health care executive and former congressional candidate (Independent)
• Bill Nelson, incumbent U.S. Senator (Democratic)
• Belinda Noah (Independent)
• Roy Tanner (Independent)

Campaign

The organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), which monitors political corruption, complained to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in October 2006 that the Bacardi beverage company had illegally used corporate resources in support of a fundraising event for Nelson in 2005. CREW had previously filed a similar complaint concerning a Bacardi fundraising event for Republican Senator Mel Martinez, an event that raised as much as $60,000 for Martinez's campaign. The amended complaint alleged that, on both occasions, Bacardi violated the Federal Election Campaign Act and FEC regulations by soliciting contributions from a list of the corporation's vendors.^[19]

Endorsements

In a rare move, all twenty-two of Florida's daily newspapers supported Nelson, while none supported Harris in the general election.^[20]

• Bradenton Herald: Bill Nelson^[21]
• Charlotte Sun-Herald: Bill Nelson^[21]
• Daytona Beach News-Journal: Bill Nelson^[22]
• Florida Times-Union: Bill Nelson^[23]
• Fort Myers News-Press: Bill Nelson^[24]
• Gainesville Sun: Bill Nelson^[25]
• Lakeland Ledger: Bill Nelson^[21]
• Miami Herald: Bill Nelson^[21]
• Naples Daily News: Bill Nelson^[26]
• Orlando Sentinel: Bill Nelson^[27]
• Palm Beach Post: Bill Nelson^[28]
• Pensacola News Journal: Bill Nelson^[29]
• Saint Petersburg Times: Bill Nelson^[30]
• Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Bill Nelson^[31]
• Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers: Bill Nelson^[32]
• South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Bill Nelson^[33]
• Tallahassee Democrat: Bill Nelson^[34]
• Tampa Tribune: Bill Nelson^[35]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 23, 2006
• Complete video of debate, November 1, 2006

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[36]	Solid D	November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37]	Safe D	November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[38]	Safe D	November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[39]	Safe D	November 6, 2006

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll Source Date Bill Nelson (D) Katherine Harris (R) Strategic Vision (R)[40] July 20, 2005 48% 40% Strategic Vision (R)[41] August 21, 2005 47% 38% Quinnipiac[42] August 31, 2005 57% 33% Strategic Vision (R)[43] September 22, 2005 48% 36% Rasmussen[44] November 14, 2005 53% 36% Quinnipiac[45] November 15, 2005 55% 31% Strategic Vision (R)[46] November 30, 2005 48% 32% Rasmussen[47] January 5, 2006 54% 31% Rasmussen[48] February 14, 2006 49% 40% Strategic Vision (R)[49] February 22, 2006 49% 34% Quinnipiac[50] February 24, 2006 53% 31% University of North Florida[51] March 15, 2006 48% 28% Mason-Dixon[52] March 29, 2006 51% 35% Strategic Vision (R)[53] March 30, 2006 56% 28% Zogby/WSJ[54] March 31, 2006 50% 37% Rasmussen[55] April 14, 2006 57% 27% Quinnipiac[56] April 20, 2006 56% 27% Strategic Vision (R)[57] April 26, 2006 56% 24% Rasmussen[58] May 22, 2006 60% 33% Strategic Vision (R)[59] May 25, 2006 56% 26% Quinnipiac[60] May 25, 2006 58% 25% Zogby/WSJ[61] June 21, 2006 51% 33% Strategic Vision (R)[62] June 28, 2006 61% 26% Quinnipiac[63] June 30, 2006 59% 26% Zogby/WSJ[61] July 24, 2006 55% 34% Strategic Vision (R)[64] July 26, 2006 60% 22% Mason-Dixon[10] July 26, 2006 57% 29% Quinnipiac[65] July 27, 2006 61% 24% Rasmussen[66] July 28, 2006 61% 33% St. Petersburg Times[67] August 11, 2006 60% 25% Zogby/WSJ[68] August 28, 2006 52% 32% Strategic Vision (R)[69] August 30, 2006 63% 20% Rasmussen[70] September 5, 2006 57% 34% Zogby/WSJ[68] September 11, 2006 51% 33% SurveyUSA[71] September 14, 2006 53% 38% Mason-Dixon[72] September 20–22, 2006 53% 35% Strategic Vision (R)[73] September 27, 2006 59% 31% Rasmussen[74] September 27, 2006 56% 33% Rasmussen[75] October 4, 2006 54% 37% SurveyUSA[76] October 10, 2006 55% 37% Quinnipiac[77] October 11, 2006 61% 33% Mason-Dixon[78] October 16–17, 2006 57% 31% Strategic Vision (R)[79] October 25, 2006 58% 35% Quinnipiac[80] October 25, 2006 64% 29% St. Petersburg Times[81] October 28, 2006 56% 30% Strategic Vision (R)[82] November 2, 2006 59% 33% Mason-Dixon[83] November 3, 2006 58% 34% SurveyUSA[84] November 5, 2006 59% 36%

Results

As expected, Nelson was easily reelected. He won with 60.3% of the vote winning by 1,064,421 votes or 22.2%, and carried 57 of Florida's 67 counties. Nelson was projected the winner almost immediately when the polls closed at 7 P.M. EST.

General election results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Bill Nelson (incumbent)	2,890,548	60.30%	+9.26%
	Republican	Katherine Harris	1,826,127	38.10%	−8.09%
	Independent	Belinda Noah	24,880	0.52%	n/a
	Independent	Brian Moore	19,695	0.41%	n/a
	Independent	Floyd Ray Frazier	16,628	0.35%	n/a
	Independent	Roy Tanner	15,562	0.32%	n/a
	Write-in		94	0.00%	n/a
Majority			1,064,421	22.21%	+17.36%
Turnout			4,793,534
	Democratic hold		Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Gilchrist (Largest city: Trenton)
• Sumter (Largest city: The Villages)
• Bradford (Largest city: Starke)
• Charlotte (Largest city: Charlotte)
• Columbia (Largest city: Lake City)
• DeSoto (Largest city: Arcadia)
• Escambia (Largest city: Pensacola)
• Hardee (Largest city: Wachula)
• Highlands (Largest city: Sebring)
• Indian River (Largest city: Sebastian)
• Lake (Largest city: Clermont)
• Lee (Largest city: Cape Coral)
• Suwannee (Largest city: Live Oak)
• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)
• Hendry (Largest city: Clewiston)
• Marion (Largest city: Ocala)

See also

• 2006 United States Senate elections
• 2006 Florida gubernatorial election
• 2006 Florida state elections
• 2006 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida

References

1. "Senator's office produced Schiavo memo". Associated Press. April 6, 2005 – via NBC News.
2. "The Seattle Times: Nation & World: GOP memo says issue offers political rewards". The Washington Post. April 4, 2005. Archived from the original on January 27, 2007 – via The Seattle Times.
3. "Orlando Sentinel - Central Florida Political Pulse: Florida Senate race archives". blogs.orlandosentinel.com. Archived from the original on March 24, 2006.
4. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 7, 2011. Retrieved August 30, 2006.
5. U.S. SENATE: It's a toss up | Jacksonville.com
6. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/nation/epaper/2006/08/25/a9a_endorse_0825.html ^{[dead link‍]}
7. 404 | MiamiHerald.com^{[dead link‍]}
8. Topic Galleries - OrlandoSentinel.com^{[permanent dead link‍]}
9. Strategic Vision
10. Mason-Dixon
11. Quinnipiac
12. Scroth Eldon & Associates
13. SurveyUSA
14. Strategic Vision
15. Quinnipiac
16. SurveyUSA
17. Mason-Dixon ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
18. "Official Results September 5, 2006 Republican Primary Election". Florida Department of State. September 5, 2006. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
19. "CREW FILES AMENDED FEC COMPLAINT AGAINST BACARDI USA AND MARTINEZ FOR SENATE". Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Archived from the original on August 8, 2018. Retrieved August 7, 2018.
20. Harris, Nelson tout testimonials
21. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on December 13, 2006. Retrieved July 13, 2008.
22. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 16, 2006.
23. U.S. SENATE: Nelson the best choice | Jacksonville.com
24. The News Press Endorsement Recap
25. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 16, 2006.
26. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 20, 2006.
27. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on November 1, 2006. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
28. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 11, 2006. Retrieved October 11, 2006.
29. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on November 1, 2006. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
30. Nelson for U.S. Senate
31. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 16, 2006.
32. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 16, 2006.
33. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 20, 2006.
34. Tallahassee Democrat - www.tallahassee.com - Tallahassee, FL
35. "Bill Nelson For Senate". Archived from the original on October 18, 2006. Retrieved October 16, 2006.
36. "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
37. "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
38. "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
39. "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
40. Strategic Vision (R)
41. Strategic Vision (R)
42. Quinnipiac
43. Strategic Vision (R)
44. Rasmussen Archived November 24, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
45. Quinnipiac
46. Strategic Vision (R)
47. Rasmussen
48. Rasmussen
49. Strategic Vision (R)
50. Quinnipiac
51. University of North Florida
52. Mason-Dixon ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
53. Strategic Vision (R)
54. Zogby/WSJ
55. Rasmussen
56. Quinnipiac
57. Strategic Vision (R)
58. Rasmussen
59. Strategic Vision (R)
60. Quinnipiac
61. Zogby/WSJ
62. Strategic Vision (R)
63. Quinnipiac
64. Strategic Vision (R)
65. Quinnipiac
66. Rasmussen Archived September 22, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
67. St. Petersburg Times
68. Zogby/WSJ
69. Strategic Vision (R)
70. Rasmussen
71. SurveyUSA
72. Mason-Dixon
73. Strategic Vision (R)
74. Rasmussen
75. Rasmussen
76. SurveyUSA
77. Quinnipiac
78. Mason-Dixon
79. Strategic Vision (R)
80. Quinnipiac
81. St. Petersburg Times
82. Strategic Vision (R)
83. Mason-Dixon
84. SurveyUSA

External links

Debates

• Debate, October 23, 2006

Campaign Websites (Archived)

• Bill Nelson for Senate
• Katherine Harris for Senate
• Leroy Collins for Senate
• Peter Monroe for Senate
• Ray Frazier for Senate^{[dead link‍]}
• Brian Moore for Senate
• Belinda Noah for Senate
• Roy Tanner for Senate
• Lawrence Scott for Senate