2022 United States Senate election in Georgia
The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia . Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker . Under Georgia's two-round system , Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8.[ 1] Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.
Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election , was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell , won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 in which both major party nominees were Black.[ 2] [ 3] [ a]
In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff.[ 4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms .[ 5] [ 6] This was the first time since 1998 that Georgia voted for different parties for U.S. senator and governor in the same election cycle. It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin .
Democratic primary
Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery .[ 7] [ 8]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Raphael Warnock
State officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Tamara Johnson-Shealey
Raphael Warnock
Undecided
Emerson College [ 27]
April 1–3, 2022
453 (LV)
± 4.6%
6%
85%
10%
Results
Results by county:
Republican primary
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Christopher M. Carr , Attorney General of Georgia (ran for re-election ) [ 32]
Buddy Carter , U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district (ran for re-election ; endorsed Walker) [ 34] [ 35]
Doug Collins , former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 [ 36] [ 37]
Geoff Duncan , Lieutenant Governor of Georgia and former state representative [ 38] [ 39]
Randy Evans , former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg [ 38] [ 40] (endorsed Walker)
Drew Ferguson , U.S. Representative for Georgia's 3rd congressional district (ran for re-election ) [ 41]
Vernon Jones , former Democratic state representative and CEO of DeKalb County (ran for the U.S. House in GA-10 ) [ 42]
Brian Kemp , Governor of Georgia (ran for re-election ) [ 43]
Jack Kingston , former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district [ 32]
Kelly Loeffler , former U.S. Senator[ 44] (endorsed Walker)
Harold Melton , former chief justice of Georgia Supreme Court [ 45] [ 46]
David Perdue , former U.S. Senator[ 47] [ 48] [ 49] (initially filed paperwork; ran for Governor ) [ 50]
David Ralston , Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives [ 51]
Debates
Endorsements
Gary Black
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Herschel Walker
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
Marsha Blackburn , U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[ 58]
Ted Cruz , U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[ 59]
Steve Daines , U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[ 60]
Lindsey Graham , U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[ 60]
Bill Hagerty , U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[ 59]
Roger Marshall , U.S. Senator from Kansas (2021–present)[ 60]
Mitch McConnell , U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[ 61]
Tim Scott , U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[ 60]
John Thune , U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)[ 60]
Tommy Tuberville , U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present)[ 62]
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
American Conservative Union[ 65]
Black America's Political Action Committee[ 66]
National Right to Life[ 67]
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Gary Black
Josh Clark
Kelvin King
Jonathan McColumn
Latham Saddler
Herschel Walker
Other[ c]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 68]
May 12–23, 2022
May 24, 2022
9.0%
2.7%
4.0%
1.7%
9.0%
64.7%
12.9%
Walker +55.7
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Gary Black
Josh Clark
Kelvin King
Jonathan McColumn
Latham Saddler
Herschel Walker
Other
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 69]
May 21–23, 2022
1,074 (LV)
± 2.9%
10%
3%
4%
2%
10%
67%
–
4%
Landmark Communications (R)[ 70]
May 22, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
9%
3%
5%
2%
12%
60%
–
9%
Fox News [ 71]
May 12–16, 2022
1,004 (LV)
± 3.0%
8%
2%
3%
1%
5%
66%
1%
11%
ARW Strategies (R)[ 72]
April 30 – May 1, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
10%
1%
3%
1%
4%
59%
–
23%
SurveyUSA [ 73]
April 22–27, 2022
559 (LV)
± 4.8%
6%
3%
2%
2%
3%
62%
–
21%
University of Georgia [ 74]
April 10–22, 2022
886 (LV)
± 3.3%
7%
1%
1%
1%
2%
66%
–
23%
Landmark Communications (R)[ 75]
April 9–10, 2022
660 (LV)
± 3.8%
9%
3%
4%
0%
5%
64%
–
14%
Spry Strategies (R)[ 76]
April 6–10, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
7%
2%
4%
–
2%
64%
–
21%
University of Georgia [ 77]
March 20 – April 8, 2022
~329 (LV)
± 5.4%
8%
0%
2%
0%
2%
64%
–
24%
Emerson College [ 27]
April 1–3, 2022
509 (LV)
± 4.3%
13%
4%
5%
3%
2%
57%
2%[ d]
16%
Fox News [ 78]
March 2–6, 2022
914 (LV)
± 3.0%
8%
1%
3%
–
2%
66%
1%
16%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 79]
February 28 – March 1, 2022
750 (LV)
± 3.6%
6%
3%
4%
–
3%
63%
2%
20%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 80]
February 11–13, 2022
1,072 (LV)
± 3.0%
6%
–
2%
–
3%
70%
–
19%
Quinnipiac University [ 81]
January 19–24, 2022
666 (LV)
± 3.8%
6%
0%
2%
–
1%
81%
0%[ e]
9%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ 82] [ A]
October 11–14, 2021
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
6%
–
1%
–
1%
74%
2%[ f]
16%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 83]
September 2–4, 2021
1,078 (LV)
± 3.0%
6%
–
2%
–
3%
76%
–
13%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[ 84] [ B]
August 11–12, 2021
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
5%
–
2%
–
1%
54%
3%[ g]
35%
Hypothetical polling
Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler
Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins
Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler
Results
Results by county: 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Libertarian primary
Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver
Candidates
Declared
General election
Predictions
Debates
Endorsements
Raphael Warnock (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Stacey Abrams , former Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives , founder of Fair Fight Action , and nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and 2022 [ 108]
James Beverly , state representative from the 143rd district (2013–present)[ 105]
William Boddie , state representative from the 62nd district (2017–present)[ 105]
Demetrius Douglas , former professional football player and state representative from the 78th district (2013–present)[ 11]
Gloria Frazier , state representative from the 126th district (2013–present)[ 109]
Harold V. Jones II , state senator for the 22nd district (2015–present)[ 110]
Jen Jordan , state senator for the 6th district (2017–2023)[ 111]
David Lucas , state senator for the 26th district (2013–present)[ 105]
Miriam Paris , state representative from the 142nd district (2017–present)[ 105]
Local officials
Individuals
J. J. Abrams , filmmaker[ 112]
Arianna Afsar , singer[ 113]
Waka Flocka Flame , rapper[ 114]
Maxwell Frost , U.S. Representative-elect for Florida's 10th congressional district [ 115]
LeBron James , professional basketball player[ 116]
Daniel Dae Kim , actor[ 113]
Min Jin Lee , author[ 113]
Spike Lee , film director[ 117]
John Legend , singer and songwriter[ 118]
Jeannie Mai , television host[ 113]
Gucci Mane , entertainer[ 119]
Dave Matthews , singer[ 120]
Killer Mike , rapper[ 121]
Lin-Manuel Miranda , composer and filmmaker[ 122]
Michelle Obama , former First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)[ 123]
Martin Sheen , actor[ 124]
Steven Spielberg , film director[ 112]
Kerry Washington , actress[ 125]
Oprah Winfrey , businesswoman and talk show host[ 126]
Henry Winkler , actor[ 127]
Stevie Wonder , singer and songwriter[ 128]
Organizations
Labor unions
Herschel Walker (R)
Executive Branch officials
State officials
U.S. Senators
Katie Britt , U.S. Senator -elect from Alabama [ 139]
Saxby Chambliss , U.S. Senator from Georgia (2003–2015)[ 140]
John Cornyn , U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present)[ 141]
Tom Cotton , U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[ 142]
Ted Cruz , U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[ 59] [ 143]
Steve Daines , U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[ 60]
Lindsey Graham , U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[ 60]
Josh Hawley , U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[ 144]
John Kennedy , U.S. Senator from Louisiana (2017–present)[ 145] [ 146]
Kelly Loeffler , U.S. Senator from Georgia (2020–2021)[ 147]
Roger Marshall , U.S. Senator from Kansas (2021–present)[ 60]
Mack Mattingly , U.S. Senator from Georgia (1981–1987)[ 140]
Mitch McConnell , U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[ 61]
David Perdue , U.S. Senator from Georgia (2015–2021)[ 140]
Rick Scott , U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present)[ 148]
Tim Scott , U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[ 149]
John Thune , U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)[ 60]
Tommy Tuberville , U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present)[ 62]
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Bobby Christine , District Attorney of the Columbia County Judicial Circuit (2021–present)[ 137]
Vince Dooley , former head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs (deceased) [ 153]
Ric Flair , professional wrestler[ 154]
Doug Flutie , NFL and CFL quarterback[ 154]
Tom Glavine , pitcher for the Atlanta Braves [ 154]
Sean Hannity , talk show host and conservative political commentator [ 64]
Ronna McDaniel , chair of the Republican National Committee [ 155]
Chuck Norris , martial artist and actor[ 156]
Ralph Reed , political consultant[ 157]
Kanye West , rapper, businessman, and fashion designer[ 158]
Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Raphael Warnock (D)
Herschel Walker (R)
Other[ c]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 162]
October 29 – November 7, 2022
November 7, 2022
47.4%
48.8%
3.8%
Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEight [ 163]
October 13 – November 7, 2022
November 7, 2022
46.7%
47.7%
5.69%
Walker +1.0
270ToWin [ 164]
November 4–7, 2022
November 7, 2022
47.3%
48.5%
5.1%
Walker +1.2
Average
47.1%
48.3%
4.6%
Walker +1.2
Graphical summary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Raphael Warnock (D)
Herschel Walker (R)
Chase Oliver (L)
Other
Undecided
AtlasIntel [ 165]
November 5–7, 2022
791 (LV)
± 3.0%
46%
49%
–
5%[ i]
–
Landmark Communications [ 166]
November 4–7, 2022
1,214 (LV)
± 2.8%
46%
47%
5%
–
2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 167]
November 6, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
47%
49%
1%
–
4%
Research Co. [ 168]
November 4–6, 2022
450 (LV)
± 4.6%
47%
47%
1%
–
5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 169]
November 4–6, 2022
1,103 (LV)
± 2.9%
47%
50%
2%
–
2%
Data for Progress (D)[ 170]
November 2–6, 2022
1,474 (LV)
± 3.0%
48%
49%
3%
–
–
Targoz Market Research [ 171]
November 2–6, 2022
579 (LV)
± 4.0%
47%
49%
1%
2%[ j]
–
East Carolina University [ 172]
November 2–5, 2022
1,077 (LV)
± 3.5%
49%
49%
2%
–
–
Amber Integrated (R)[ 173]
November 1–2, 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
45%
48%
3%
–
4%
Remington Research Group (R)[ 174]
November 1–2, 2022
1,150 (LV)
± 2.8%
45%
49%
2%
–
4%
Echleon Insights [ 175]
October 31 – November 2, 2022
500 (LV)
± 5.4%
45%
49%
3%
–
3%
45%
52%
–
–
3%
Marist College [ 176]
October 31 – November 2, 2022
1,168 (RV)
± 3.9%
49%
45%
–
1%[ k]
6%
1,009 (LV)
± 4.2%
48%
48%
–
1%[ k]
3%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 177] [ C]
October 29 – November 2, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3.0%
44%
49%
2%
–
5%
SurveyUSA [ 178]
October 29 – November 2, 2022
1,171 (LV)
± 3.7%
49%
43%
3%
–
5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[ 179] [ D]
October 30 – November 1, 2022
700 (RV)
± 3.7%
49%
45%
4%
–
2%
Emerson College [ 180]
October 28–31, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
49%
47%
1%
1%[ l]
2%
50%
48%
2%
1%[ l]
–
Fox News [ 181]
October 26–30, 2022
1,002 (RV)
± 3.0%
44%
43%
–
6%[ m]
6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 182]
October 27, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
45%
48%
2%
<1%[ n]
5%
Siena College /NYT [ 183]
October 24–27, 2022
604 (LV)
± 4.8%
49%
46%
1%
–
4%
University of Georgia [ 184]
October 16–27, 2022
1,022 (LV)
± 3.1%
45%
46%
5%
–
5%
co/efficient (R)[ 185]
October 24–25, 2022
946 (LV)
± 3.2%
44%
47%
3%
–
6%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 186] [ C]
October 22–25, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3.0%
42%
46%
3%
–
–
Rasmussen Reports (R)[ 187]
October 23–24, 2022
1,053 (LV)
± 3.0%
43%
48%
–
4%[ o]
4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 188] [ E]
October 21–23, 2022
1,076 (LV)
± 2.9%
47%
49%
5%
–
–
East Carolina University [ 189]
October 13–18, 2022
905 (LV)
± 3.8%
49%
47%
–
2%[ p]
3%
Landmark Communications [ 190]
October 15–17, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
46%
46%
3%
–
2%
Data for Progress (D)[ 191]
October 13–17, 2022
984 (LV)
± 3.0%
48%
47%
3%
–
3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 192]
October 16, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
46%
43%
4%
1%[ q]
6%
Wick Insights (R)[ 193]
October 8–14, 2022
1,018 (LV)
± 3.1%
46%
46%
–
3%[ r]
5%
Civiqs [ 194]
October 8–11, 2022
717 (LV)
± 4.6%
49%
46%
–
3%[ r]
1%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 195] [ C]
October 8–11, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3.0%
44%
46%
4%
–
–
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 196]
October 8–11, 2022
1,084 (LV)
± 2.9%
46%
45%
4%
–
5%
Quinnipiac University [ 197]
October 7–10, 2022
1,157 (LV)
± 2.9%
52%
45%
–
1%[ s]
1%
Emerson College [ 198]
October 6–7, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
48%
46%
1%
1%[ l]
4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 199]
October 4, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
47%
44%
3%
1%[ q]
5%
SurveyUSA [ 200]
September 30 – October 4, 2022
1,076 (LV)
± 3.7%
50%
38%
–
5%[ t]
7%
University of Georgia [ 201]
September 25 – October 4, 2022
1,030 (LV)
± 3.1%
46%
43%
4%
–
6%
Fox News [ 202]
September 22–26, 2022
1,011 (RV)
± 3.0%
46%
41%
–
6%[ u]
7%
Data for Progress (D)[ 203]
September 16–20, 2022
1,006 (RV)
± 3.0%
46%
46%
4%
–
3%
YouGov /CBS News [ 204]
September 14–19, 2022
1,178 (RV)
± 4.0%
51%
49%
–
–
0%
University of Georgia [ 205]
September 5–16, 2022
861 (LV)
± 3.3%
44%
46%
–
3%
7%
Marist College [ 206]
September 12–15, 2022
1,202 (RV)
± 3.6%
47%
42%
4%
–
7%
992 (LV)
± 4.0%
47%
45%
4%
–
4%
Kurt Jetta (D)[ 207] [ F]
September 9–12, 2022
949 (RV)
± 3.5%
50%
37%
–
–
13%
542 (LV)
49%
45%
–
–
7%
Quinnipiac University [ 208]
September 8–12, 2022
1,278 (LV)
± 2.7%
52%
46%
–
1%
2%
Echelon Insights [ 209]
August 31 – September 7, 2022
751 (LV)
± 4.4%
50%
40%
–
–
10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 210]
September 6–7, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4.2%
44%
47%
4%
–
5%
Emerson College [ 211]
August 28–29, 2022
600 (LV)
± 3.9%
44%
46%
–
4%
7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 212]
August 24–27, 2022
1,079 (LV)
± 2.9%
47%
48%
3%
–
3%
Phillips Academy [ 213]
August 3–7, 2022
971 (RV)
± 3.1%
44%
45%
–
–
11%
Research Affiliates (D)[ 214] [ G]
July 26 – August 1, 2022
420 (LV)
± 4.8%
49%
46%
–
–
5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 215]
July 26–27, 2022
750 (LV)
± 3.6%
48%
45%
3%
1%
3%
Fox News [ 216]
July 22–26, 2022
908 (RV)
± 3.0%
46%
42%
–
1%
9%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[ 217] [ H]
July 22–24, 2022
300 (LV)
± 5.7%
42%
46%
–
3%
9%
SurveyUSA [ 218]
July 21–24, 2022
604 (LV)
± 5.3%
48%
39%
–
5%
8%
University of Georgia [ 219]
July 14–22, 2022
902 (LV)
± 3.3%
46%
43%
3%
–
8%
Beacon Research (D)[ 220] [ I]
July 5–20, 2022
1,003 (RV)
± 3.1%
48%
36%
–
2%
11%
602 (LV)
± 4.0%
48%
43%
–
1%
7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[ 221]
July 5–11, 2022
1,197 (LV)
± 4.4%
50%
47%
–
–
3%
Data for Progress (D)[ 222]
July 1–6, 2022
1,131 (LV)
± 3.0%
47%
49%
–
–
4%
Change Research (D)[ 223] [ J]
June 24–27, 2022
704 (LV)
± 3.7%
48%
44%
–
–
8%
Quinnipiac University [ 224]
June 23–27, 2022
1,497 (RV)
± 2.5%
54%
44%
–
0%
3%
Moore Information Group (R)[ 225] [ C]
June 11–16, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3.0%
47%
47%
–
–
6%
East Carolina University [ 226]
June 6–9, 2022
868 (RV)
± 3.9%
47%
47%
–
2%
4%
SurveyUSA [ 227]
April 22–27, 2022
1,278 (LV)
± 3.4%
50%
45%
–
–
5%
Grassroots Targeting (R)[ 228] [ A]
April 3–16, 2022
2,500 (RV)
± 2.0%
41%
51%
–
–
8%
Emerson College [ 27]
April 1–3, 2022
1,013 (RV)
± 3.0%
45%
49%
–
–
6%
Blueprint Polling (D)[ 229]
March 2–8, 2022
662 (LV)
± 3.9%
45%
49%
–
–
6%
Change Research (D)[ 223] [ J]
March 2022
– (LV)
–
48%
49%
–
–
3%
Wick Insights (R)[ 230]
February 2–6, 2022
1,290 (LV)
± 2.7%
46%
47%
–
–
8%
Quinnipiac University [ 81]
January 19–24, 2022
1,702 (RV)
± 2.4%
48%
49%
–
0%
3%
University of Georgia [ 231]
January 13–24, 2022
872 (RV)
± 3.3%
44%
47%
–
1%
8%
NRSC (R)[ 232] [ K]
December 4–8, 2021
831 (LV)
± 3.4%
48%
49%
–
–
3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [ 233]
November 9, 2021
753 (RV)
± 3.6%
45%
39%
–
2%
8%
733 (LV)
48%
42%
–
2%
6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 234]
August 4–5, 2021
622 (V)
± 3.9%
48%
46%
–
–
6%
The Trafalgar Group /InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 235]
March 7–9, 2021
1,093 (LV)
± 2.9%
46%
48%
–
3%
4%
Hypothetical polling
Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black
Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler
Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Generic Democrat
Generic Republican
Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R)[ 228] [ A]
April 3–16, 2022
2,500 (RV)
± 2.0%
40%
52%
8%
Results
Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 203,130 votes, while Warnock did 132,444 votes better than Abrams.[ 236]
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[ 238]
Voter demographics
Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN . The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by voters in person as well as by phone.[ 239]
2022 United States Senate election voter demographics in Georgia (CNN)[ 239]
Demographic subgroup
Warnock
Walker
Oliver
% of total vote
Ideology
Liberals
93
5
2
18
Moderates
66
32
2
41
Conservatives
11
88
1
41
Party
Democrats
97
2
0
35
Republicans
4
95
1
41
Independents
53
42
4
24
Gender
Men
44
54
2
47
Women
53
45
1
53
Marital status
Married
47
53
1
64
Unmarried
60
37
1
36
Gender by marital status
Married men
38
60
2
31
Married women
44
55
1
31
Unmarried men
58
39
3
15
Unmarried women
65
33
1
23
Race/ethnicity
White
29
70
1
62
Black
90
8
1
28
Latino
58
39
3
6
Asian
59
39
2
2
Other racial/ethnic groups
53
41
4
3
White voters by gender
White men
27
71
2
31
White women
30
68
1
30
Black men
85
12
2
11
Black women
93
5
1
17
Latino men
61
37
2
3
Latina women
55
41
4
4
All other races
55
40
3
4
Age
18–24 years old
69
28
3
6
25–29 years old
57
40
2
6
30–39 years old
57
40
3
14
40–49 years old
52
46
1
17
50–64 years old
44
54
1
32
65 and older
41
58
1
25
2020 presidential vote
Biden
97
3
0
43
Trump
4
95
1
48
First time midterm election voter
Yes
52
44
4
8
No
46
52
1
92
Education
Never attended college
39
59
1
16
Some college education
49
50
1
27
Associate degree
48
49
3
16
Bachelor's degree
47
51
2
23
Advanced degree
60
38
2
17
Education by race
White college graduates
40
58
2
27
White no college degree
19
79
1
34
Non-white college graduates
78
20
1
13
Non-white no college degree
82
15
2
25
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees
44
54
1
13
White women without college degrees
20
79
1
17
White men with college degrees
36
61
2
14
White men without college degrees
19
80
1
18
Non-white
81
17
2
38
Issue regarded as most important
Crime
50
48
2
13
Abortion
77
21
1
26
Inflation
27
72
1
37
Gun Policy
58
40
1
10
Immigration
15
83
2
7
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied
16
83
1
43
Dissatisfied/angry
77
20
2
53
Abortion should be
Legal
75
23
1
53
Illegal
11
87
1
43
Area type
Urban
68
31
1
20
Suburban
48
49
2
53
Rural
35
65
1
27
Runoff
Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto 's victory in Nevada , it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey , Democrats held their majority in the Senate.[ v] [ 240] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[ 241] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[ 242] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[ 243] This was the fifth runoff in the state's history.
The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021 , which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[ 244] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee 's birthday (November 25).[ w] [ 247] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[ 248] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[ 249] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[ 250] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[ 251] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton , Gwinnett , Cobb , and DeKalb .[ 252]
While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress , Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority,[ 1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[ 253] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections . Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,[ x] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward.[ 253] [ 254] [ 255]
According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat.[ 256]
Predictions
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Raphael Warnock (D)
Herschel Walker (R)
Undecided[ c]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 261]
November 11 – December 4, 2022
December 5, 2022
51.0%
47.3%
1.5%
Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEight [ 262]
November 26 – December 5, 2022
December 5, 2022
51.1%
47.2%
2.1%
Warnock +3.9
270ToWin [ 263]
November 22 – December 5, 2022
December 5, 2022
51.0%
47.7%
1.5%
Warnock +3.3
Average
51.0%
47.4%
1.7%
Warnock +3.6
Graphical summary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ b]
Margin of error
Raphael Warnock (D)
Herschel Walker (R)
Other
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[ 264]
December 3–5, 2022
1,099 (LV)
± 2.9%
51%
47%
–
2%
Data for Progress (D)[ 265]
December 1–5, 2022
1,229 (LV)
± 3.0%
51%
49%
–
–
InsiderAdvantage (R)[ 266]
December 4, 2022
750 (LV)
± 3.6%
51%
48%
–
1%
Landmark Communications [ 267]
December 4, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
52%
47%
–
1%
Mitchell Research [ 268]
December 4, 2022
625 (LV)
± 3.6%
50%
45%
–
5%
Patriot Polling [ 269]
November 30 – December 2, 2022
818 (RV)
–
49%
47%
–
4%
Emerson College [ 270]
November 28–30, 2022
888 (LV)
± 3.2%
51%
49%
–
–
49%
47%
–
4%
SurveyUSA [ 271]
November 26–30, 2022
1,214 (LV)
± 3.6%
50%
47%
–
3%
50%
46%
–
4%
CNN /SSRS [ 272]
November 25–29, 2022
1,886 (RV)
± 3.0%
51%
44%
5%[ y]
–
1,184 (LV)
± 3.8%
52%
48%
1%[ z]
–
UMass Lowell /YouGov [ 273]
November 18–28, 2022
1,300 (LV)
± 3.2%
51%
46%
–
2%
Phillips Academy [ 274]
November 26–27, 2022
862 (LV)
± 3.3%
47%
48%
–
5%
Frederick Polls (D)[ 275] [ L]
November 23–26, 2022
939 (LV)
± 3.1%
50%
50%
–
–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[ 276]
November 11–17, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
51%
47%
–
2%
Results
Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[ 278]
See also
Notes
^ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014 and 2016 , and concurrently with South Carolina in 2022 .
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Nestor with 2%
^ Craig and Nestor with 0%
^ Craig and Nestor with 1%
^ Carter with 3%
^ a b c d Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
^ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
^ "All others" with 2%
^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
^ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
^ "Other" with <1%
^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
^ a b "Other" with 1%
^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
^ "Other candidate" with 5%
^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
^ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
^ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed.[ 245] [ 246]
^ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
^ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
^ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
^ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
^ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party .
^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
^ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
^ a b This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
^ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
^ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.
References
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^ Real Clear Politics
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ Landmark Communications (R)
^ Fox News
^ ARW Strategies (R)
^ SurveyUSA
^ University of Georgia
^ Landmark Communications (R)
^ Spry Strategies (R)
^ University of Georgia
^ Fox News
^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ a b Quinnipiac University
^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
^ Fabrizio Lee (R)
^ a b OnMessage Inc. (R)
^ a b c d Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage
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^ Baruchman, Michelle. "Who is Chase Oliver? Things to know about the Libertarian presidential candidate" . The Atlanta Journal-Constitution – via AJC.com.
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^ "Tim Scott stars in ads for GOP candidates in six key states" . NBC News . August 10, 2022.
^ "GOP Rep. Don Bacon defends Herschel Walker: 'We all make mistakes' " . Axios . October 9, 2022.
^ "With Herschel Walker's Senate run confirmed, Rep. Buddy Carter changes course and offers endorsement" . savannahnow.com .
^ "GOP heavyweight Newt Gingrich joins Herschel Walker in law enforcement endorsement" . CBS46. July 29, 2022.
^ "Herschel Walker endorsed by Georgia football legend" . thecomeback.com . October 20, 2022.
^ a b c "Tom Glavine, Ric Flair, Doug Flutie to join Trump for Herschel Walker event" . The Hill . October 16, 2021.
^ "Warnock and Walker hold events on runoff election eve" . WABE. December 6, 2022.
^ Landen, Xander (November 4, 2022). "Chuck Norris jumps into U.S. midterms, backing key Senate candidate" . Newsweek . Retrieved November 5, 2022 .
^ Goldmacher, Shane; King, Maya; Lerer, Lisa (October 4, 2022). "In Speedy Embrace of Herschel Walker, Republicans Make Familiar Political Bargain" . The New York Times .
^ Bluestein, Greg [@bluestein] (October 30, 2022). "Kanye West just endorsed Herschel Walker #gapol #gasen https://t.co/mnyYzENAg5" (Tweet ). Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022 – via Twitter .
^ "Endorsed Candidates" . Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 3, 2022 .
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^ a b c Public Policy Polling (D)
^ a b c The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)
^ "Voters who backed GOP governors helped keep the Senate blue" . Politico . November 19, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022 .
^ "United States Senate - November 8, 2022 General Election" . Georgia Secretary of State . November 12, 2022. Retrieved November 12, 2022 .
^ "DRA 2020" .
^ a b "2022 Exit Polls" . CNN . November 8, 2022. Retrieved October 7, 2024 .
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^ Rodriguez, Sabrina; Linskey, Annie (November 13, 2022). "Parties gear up for runoff in Ga., the last outstanding Senate race" . The Washington Post . Retrieved November 29, 2022 .
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^ "Observing State Holidays" . Governor of Georgia. Archived from the original on February 26, 2017. Retrieved June 11, 2014 .
^ Gore, Leada (October 16, 2015). "Georgia does away with Confederate Memorial Day, Robert E. Lee Birthday" . AL.com . Retrieved August 18, 2017 .
^ King, Maya; Vigdor, Neil (November 14, 2022). "Georgia's Senate Runoff Is Complicated by 2021 Voting Law" . The New York Times . Retrieved November 29, 2022 .
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^ Niesse, Mark (November 21, 2022). "BREAKING: Saturday voting upheld in Georgia U.S. Senate runoff" . The Atlanta Journal-Constitution . Retrieved November 29, 2022 .
^ Niesse, Mark (November 23, 2022). "Georgia Supreme Court upholds Saturday voting in US Senate runoff" . The Atlanta Journal-Constitution . Retrieved November 29, 2022 .
^ Sterling, Gabriel [@GabrielSterling] (November 26, 2022). "Counties voting today in Georgia Baker Baldwin Bartow Bibb Burke Chatham Clarke Cobb Crawford DeKalb Douglas Fulton Gilmer Gwinnett Hancock Henry Macon Mitchell Muscogee Newton Randolph Rockdale Screven Terrell Troup Walton Ware https://t.co/zyMJnbNWlh #gapol #PlanYourVote https://t.co/bfA6BvIQiC" (Tweet ). Archived from the original on November 27, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022 – via Twitter .
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^ Real Clear Politics
^ FiveThirtyEight
^ 270ToWin
^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
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^ Frederick Polls (D)
^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
^ "December 6, 2022 - General Election Runoff Official & Complete Results" . Georgia Secretary of State. December 9, 2022. Retrieved December 9, 2022 .
^ "GA 22 SEN Runoff CDS" .
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