2022 United States Senate election in Alabama

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama

← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
Turnout38.50% Decrease
 
Nominee Katie Britt Will Boyd
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 942,154 436,746
Percentage 66.62% 30.88%

Britt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Boyd:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Shelby
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Katie Britt
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama. Incumbent senator Richard Shelby was first elected in 1986 and re-elected in 1992 as a Democrat before becoming a Republican in 1994.[1] In February 2021, Shelby announced that he would not seek re-election to a seventh term,[2] which resulted in the first open Senate seat since 1996 and the first in this seat since 1968.[a]

Primary elections in Alabama were held on May 24, with Will Boyd securing the Democratic nomination. However, as none of the Republican candidates received at least 50% of the vote, a runoff election occurred on June 21 between the top two candidates of the first round: attorney Katie Britt and U.S. representative Mo Brooks. Britt won the runoff against Brooks and subsequently became the Republican nominee.[3]

Britt's victory in the Republican Party primary was seen as tantamount to election in Alabama, which is a heavily Republican state.[4][5][6] Britt won the general election and became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate in the state's history.[b] She is also the first non-incumbent Republican Senator from Alabama to be elected to this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

Early polling showed U.S. Representative Mo Brooks as the frontrunner in the race, and he received the endorsement of former president Donald Trump.[7] However, in November, the race started becoming increasingly closer with former chief of staff to incumbent senator Richard Shelby, Katie Britt, running neck and neck with Brooks. In March 2022, businessman and former pilot Michael Durant took the lead in the race, with Brooks only just beginning to spend money on television advertisements. On March 23, 2022, with Brooks polling in third place, Trump revoked his endorsement and promised to endorse a new candidate.[8] In his official statement, Trump slammed Brooks for wanting to move past the 2020 United States presidential election, and claimed he went "woke" on it. There was speculation that Trump withdrew his endorsement because he did not want to be associated with a losing campaign. Brooks claimed that Trump had told him to reinstate him as president and that Trump had been manipulated by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Brooks attacked Britt as allegedly being weak on illegal immigration and supporting higher taxes, while Brooks' critics frequently point to his long career in politics, having been in office for 40 years.[9][10] In May, a planned debate between the three candidates was canceled after Durant declined to attend.[11] A runoff election took place on June 21 as none of the candidates managed 50% of the vote needed to win the nomination outright, with Britt becoming the Republican nominee.

Candidates

U.S. Representative Mo Brooks lost the runoff.

Nominee

  • Katie Britt, former president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama; former chief of staff to outgoing senator Richard Shelby
Businessman Michael Durant finished third in the initial primary.

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Katie Britt

U.S. Presidents

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State senators

State representatives

Mayors

Individuals

Organizations

PACs

  • Alabama Conservatives Fund[60]
  • Alabama RetailPAC[61]
  • Business-Industry PAC[62]
  • VIEW PAC[63]
  • Winning For Women PAC[64]
Mo Brooks (eliminated)

U.S. Presidents

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Party officials

Judges

Individuals

Organizations

PACs

Mike Durant (eliminated)

Executive branch officials

Individuals

PACs

  • Combat Veterans for Congress PAC[102]
  • More Perfect Union[103]
  • SEAL PAC[98]
Jessica Taylor (withdrawn)

Individuals

Debates and forums

2022 Alabama Republican U.S. Senate primary debates and forums
No. Date Host Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn O  Not yet entered race
Blanchard Britt Brooks Dunn Durant Taylor
1[105] Sep 15, 2021 Coffee County Republican Women WTVY[106] P P P A O A
2[107] Sep 28, 2021 Alabama Public Employees' Advocacy League WHNT[108] P P A P P
3[109] Feb 19, 2022 Alabama Republican Party N/A W P P W P W
4[110] Feb 28, 2022 Butler County Republican Party N/A P P A
5[111] Mar 22, 2022 Tallapoosa County Republican Party N/A P P A
6[112] Mar 24, 2022 Houston County Republican Party N/A P P A
7[113] Apr 25, 2022 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce N/A A P A

First round

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Other
[c]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[114] May 15–21, 2022 May 24, 2022 34.7% 28.7% 25.3% 11.3% Britt +6.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Lynda
Blanchard
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Jessica
Taylor
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[115] May 18–21, 2022 1,060 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 28% 23% 4%[e] 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[116][A] May 16–19, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 37% 25% 24% 13%
Cygnal (R)[117] May 15–16, 2022 634 (LV) ± 3.9% 31% 29% 24% 6% 10%
Emerson College[118] May 15–16, 2022 706 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 25% 26% 3%[f] 14%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[119][A] May 9–12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 37% 21% 31% 12%
Cygnal (R)[120] May 6–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 23% 21% 9% 16%
Moore Information Group (R)[121] May 2–5, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 27% 20% 20% 9%[g] 24%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[122][A] May 2–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 22% 27% 12%
Emerson College[123] March 25–27, 2022 687 (LV) ± 3.7% 23% 12% 33% 7%[h] 26%
Cygnal (R)[124] March 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 28% 16% 35% 7%[i] 14%
Wisemen Consulting (R)[125] March 15–17, 2022 – (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 23% 29% 4%[j] 17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[126][A] March 10–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 32% 18% 34% 17%
Cherry Communications (R)[127][B] February 2–6, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 34% 24% 13%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[128][C] January 29–31, 2022 2,088 (LV) ± 2.1% 29% 28% 23% 20%
WPA Intelligence (R)[129][D] January 25–27, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 35% 30% 10%
January 4, 2022 Taylor withdraws from the race
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[130] December 6–9, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 26% 31% 17% 4% 22%
December 2, 2021 Blanchard withdraws from the race
TargetPoint Consulting (R)[131][C] November 3–8, 2021 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 31% 30% 12% 7% 20%
Cygnal (R)[132][E] November 3–4, 2021 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 1% 24% 22% 9% 1% 4% 39%
The Strategy Group (R)[133][F] November 1–4, 2021 784 (LV) ± 3.8% 3% 23% 28% 7% 1% 31%
Cygnal (R)[132][E] October 21–22, 2021 – (LV) 14% 26%
WPA Intelligence (R)[134][D] October 12–14, 2021 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 12% 55% 5% 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[135] August 24 – September 2, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.6% 3% 11% 41% 7% 39%
Cygnal (R)[136] August 17–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 18% 41% 3% 5% 32%
WPA Intelligence (R)[137][D] April 26–27, 2021 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 13% 9% 59% 19%

Results

Initial primary results by county
  Britt
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Brooks
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[138]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Katie Britt 289,425 44.75%
Republican Mo Brooks 188,539 29.15%
Republican Michael Durant 150,817 23.32%
Republican Jake Schafer 7,371 1.14%
Republican Karla DuPriest 5,739 0.89%
Republican Lillie Boddie 4,849 0.75%
Total votes 646,740 100.0%

Runoff

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[139][A] June 13–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58% 33% 9%
Auburn University at Montgomery[140] June 8–15, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 30% 20%
Emerson College[141] June 12–13, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 34% 17%
JMC Analytics (R)[142] June 6–9, 2022 630 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 39% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[143][A] June 6–9, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 36% 9%
Cygnal (R)[124] March 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 28% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[130] December 6–9, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 39% 37% 25%
Cygnal (R)[132][E] November 3–4, 2021 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 35% 29% 36%
Cygnal (R)[132][E] October 21–22, 2021 – (LV) 26% 34% 40%
Hypothetical polling

Katie Britt vs. Mike Durant

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt
Mike
Durant
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[124] March 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 47% 19%

Mo Brooks vs. Mike Durant

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[124] March 16–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 23% 57% 20%

Results

Runoff results by county
  Britt
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Brooks
  •   50–60%
Republican primary runoff results[138]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Katie Britt 253,251 63.02%
Republican Mo Brooks 148,636 36.98%
Total votes 401,887 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Removed from ballot

  • Victor Keith Williams, activist, former law instructor and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia in 2020[148][149]

Declined

Debates and forums

2022 Alabama Democratic U.S. Senate primary debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Boyd Dean Jackson
1[152] Apr 07, 2022 DeKalb County Democratic Party N/A N/A P P A
2[113] Apr 25, 2022 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce N/A N/A P A P

Endorsements

Will Boyd

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Will
Boyd
Brandaun
Dean
Lanny
Jackson
Victor
Williams
Undecided
Emerson College[118] May 15–16, 2022 294 (LV) ± 5.7% 26% 15% 11% 49%
Emerson College[123] March 25–27, 2022 359 (LV) ± 5.1% 11% 5% 7% 11% 67%

Results

Results by county
  Boyd
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
Democratic primary results[138]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Will Boyd 107,588 63.72%
Democratic Brandaun Dean 32,863 19.46%
Democratic Lanny Jackson 28,402 16.82%
Total votes 168,853 100.0%

Libertarian nomination

No primary was held for the Libertarian Party, and candidates were instead nominated by the party.[155]

Candidates

Nominee

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[159] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[160] Solid R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[161] Safe R March 1, 2022
Politico[162] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[163] Safe R June 21, 2022
Fox News[164] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[165] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[166] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[167] Solid R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Katie Britt (R)

U.S. Presidents

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Mayors

Individuals

Organizations

PACs

Will Boyd (D)

Labor unions

Organizations

PACs

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt (R)
Will
Boyd (D)
John
Sophocleus (L)
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[179] October 27–29, 2022 616 (LV) ± 3.94% 57% 28% 6% -

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama[180]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Katie Britt 942,154 66.62% +2.66%
Democratic Will Boyd 436,746 30.88% −4.99%
Libertarian John Sophocleus 32,879 2.32% N/A
Write-in 2,459 0.17% ±0.0%
Total votes 1,414,238 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Britt won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[181]

District Britt Boyd Representative
1st 69% 29% Jerry Carl
2nd 70% 28% Barry Moore
3rd 71% 26% Mike Rogers
4th 84% 14% Robert Aderholt
5th 67% 30% Mo Brooks (117th Congress)
Dale Strong (118th Congress)
6th 67% 29% Gary Palmer
7th 37% 61% Terri Sewell

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Maryon Pittman Allen ran for this Class III seat in the special election in 1978 to finish her late husband's term, but lost in the Democratic primary to Donald Stewart, who won the election. Stewart ran for re-election to a full term in 1980, but lost in the Democratic primary to Jim Folsom.
  2. ^ Alabama had never elected a female Senator in the state's history. Two previous female Senators, Dixie Graves and Maryon Pittman Allen, were appointed to the Senate, but were never nominated in a Senate election.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ Boddie with 2%; DuPriest and Schafer with 1%
  6. ^ Boddie with 2%; DuPriest with 1%; Schafer with 0%
  7. ^ "None" with 4%; Schafer and DuPriest with 2%; Boddie with 1%
  8. ^ DuPriest with 4%; Boddie and Schafer with 1%
  9. ^ Boddie with 7%; DuPriest and Schafer with 0%
  10. ^ DuPriest with 3%, Schafer with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by ForestPAC, a wing of the Alabama Forestry Association, which supports Britt
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by FarmPAC, a wing of the Alabama Farmers Federation, which supports Britt
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Britt's campaign
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action which endorsed Brooks prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Alabama Conservatives Fund, which supports Britt
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Alabama House Republican Caucus

References

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  3. ^ Colvin, Jill; Chandler, Kim (June 21, 2022). "Britt wins tumultuous Alabama Senate race scrambled by Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  4. ^ Whites-Koditschek, Sarah (June 21, 2022). "Katie Britt wins runoff, stands to become first woman elected senator in Alabama". AL.com. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
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