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區群謬誤

區群謬誤(英語:Ecological fallacy),又稱生態謬誤層次謬誤,是一種在分析統計資料時常犯的錯誤。和以偏概全相反,區群謬誤是一種以全概偏,如果僅基於群體的統計數據就對其下屬的個體性質作出推論,就是犯了區群謬誤。這類謬誤假設群體中的所有個體都有群體的性質(因此刻板印象也可能犯上區群謬誤)。區群謬誤的相反情況為化約主義(reductionism)。

起源

“Ecological fallacy”這名詞最先見於William S. Robinson在1950年的文章[1]。在1930年美國人口普查結果中,Robinson分析了48個識字率以及新移民人口比例的關係。他發現兩者之間的相關係數為0.53,即代表若一個州的新移民比率愈高,平均來說這個州的識字率便愈高。但當分析個體資料時,便發現相關係數便是-0.11,即平均來說新移民比本地人的識字率低。出現這種看似矛盾的結果,其實是因為新移民都傾向在識字率較高的州份定居。Robinson因此提出在處理群體資料,或區群資料時,必須注意到資料對個體的適用性。

這並非指任何以群體資料對個體性質作出的推論都是錯誤的,但在推論時必須注意群體資料會否把群體內的變異隱藏起來。

虛構例子

區群謬誤經常出現在人口研究之中,以下是兩個虛構例子:

例子一

一項研究發現甲城市民的智商平均比乙城市民高,若因此認為在兩個城市各自隨機抽取一個市民,甲城那位市民的智商都會比乙城的那位高,便犯上了區群謬誤。因為統計結果只是對兩城的平均智商作比較,乙城個別市民智商可能比甲城的個別市民高;在極端情況下,兩城之中智商最高的一位市民可能生活在乙城。

例子二

假設甲城和乙城都各有相同人數的富人和窮人,富人都住在山上,而窮人都住在排放致癌物工廠附近,故此在兩個城市的窮人癌症發病率都比富人高很多倍。在甲城的都是高增值高污染工業,故此在甲城無論是富人和窮人的平均工資都比乙城高,但同時甲城窮人的癌症發病率也因此比乙城高。

一位教授希望找出癌症的風險因素,他在國家統計刊物找到甲城和乙城的癌症發病率和工資中位數,發現工資中位數較高的甲城有更高的癌症發病率,得出高收入是癌症風險因素的結論。然而事實上,貧窮才是癌症的風險因素,區群謬誤帶來相反的結論。

相關條目

參考資料

  1. ^ Robinson, W.S. Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review. 1950, 15: 351–357. 

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