In applied mathematics and astrodynamics, in the theory of dynamical systems, a crisis is the sudden appearance or disappearance of a strange attractor as the parameters of a dynamical system are varied.[1][2] This global bifurcation occurs when a chaotic attractor comes into contact with an unstable periodic orbit or its stable manifold.[3] As the orbit approaches the unstable orbit it will diverge away from the previous attractor, leading to a qualitatively different behaviour. Crises can produce intermittent behaviour.
Grebogi, Ott, Romeiras, and Yorke distinguished between three types of crises:[4]
Note that the reverse case (sudden appearance, shrinking or splitting of attractors) can also occur. The latter two crises are sometimes called explosive bifurcations.[5]
While crises are "sudden" as a parameter is varied, the dynamics of the system over time can show long transients before orbits leave the neighbourhood of the old attractor. Typically there is a time constant τ for the length of the transient that diverges as a power law (τ ≈ |p − pc|γ) near the critical parameter value pc. The exponent γ is called the critical crisis exponent.[6] There also exist systems where the divergence is stronger than a power law, so-called super-persistent chaotic transients.[7]