Federal elections in Germany will be held to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. They are scheduled to be held on 28 September 2025.
However, in November 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he would submit a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on January 15, 2025. If the Bundestag does not give him a majority vote of confidence, he can propose a snap election to the President of Germany; this would then probably take place in March in compliance with the constitutional deadlines. The opposition has demanded a motion of confidence be held immediately, which could lead to a snap election as early as January 2025.[1][2]
Background
The Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.[3] Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the coalition, and making a snap election likely to be held earlier in 2025.[4][5]
Electoral system
Date assignment process
The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[d] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[6] Therefore, the next election must take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025, with 28 September being scheduled.
Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.
If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).
In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[7][8][e] Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.
Changes to electoral system
After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmendeckung, "second vote coverage"). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded its entitled number of seats; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.
The law was subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefited from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to refuse to sign it, although he did so after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[9][10] Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[11][12] Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court upheld the principle of second vote coverage, but ruled that the five-percent threshold without exceptions was unconstitutional.[13] According to the principle that electoral law should be settled at least one year prior to an election, the court reintroduced the constituency seat rule as an interim measure for the 2025 election.[13]
On 14 March 2024, a law entered into force changing the boundaries of the Bundestag constituencies. As a result of the 2023 electoral reform, the number of constituencies would remain at 299, but with Bavaria gaining one constituency (Memmingen – Unterallgäu), while Saxony-Anhalt consequently lost one constituency (Anhalt). Lübbenau was also moved from Dahme-Spreewald – Teltow-Fläming III to Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz in order to comply with population requirements. Minor adjustments were made to two Thuringian constituencies to align with new municipal boundaries, while 14 further constituencies were redescribed or renamed, but without changing their boundaries.[14]
^The President of Germany has set the election date at 28 September 2025, but the election may be called earlier by the President if the Chancellor calls for a vote of confidence and loses it. In November 2024 the ruling “traffic light coalition” collapsed due to the withdrawal of the FDP over disagreements regarding the draft federal budget for 2025. Scholz plans to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on 15 January 2025, which in case of failure will give the President the choice to dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections within 60 days.
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