The snap elections were called in the midst of the North Korea missile threat and with the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party, in disarray. Just hours before Abe's announcement of the snap election on 25 September, Governor of TokyoYuriko Koike launched a new conservative reformist party Kibō no Tō, the Party of Hope, which was seen as a viable alternative to the ruling coalition. It soon led to the dissolution of the Democratic Party and its party members defecting to the Kibō no Tō.[3] However, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, whose members Koike refused to nominate, formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) led by Yukio Edano, splitting the opposition in half.[4] The elections turned into a three-way contest as the CDP joined with the Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party on a common platform opposing the constitutional revision. While Kibō no Tō fell short of expectation, the CDP surged in the polls in the last days before the elections and beat Kibō no Tō to emerge as the largest opposition party.[5]
Despite being disrupted by Typhoon Lan, the elections saw a slight increase in turnout rate of 53.68 percent but still was the second lowest in postwar Japan. The lowest ever turnout was recorded in 2014.[6] They were also the first elections after the voting age was lowered from 20 to 18.[7] Abe also became the first Prime Minister to win three consecutive general elections since 1953 and the first LDP leader to do so. He became the longest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the country in August 2020, but resigned shortly after achieving this due to health issues.[8]
Background
The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the postwar constitution drafted in 1947, the interpretation of Article 7 states that the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.[9] In June 2015, the Public Office Election Law was amended to lower the voting age from 20 to 18 years of age.[7]
As of June 2015, the largest opposition party Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016, before it merged with the Japan Innovation Party to form the Democratic Party in March 2016.[10] The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.
In January 2017, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike established a new local party, Tomin First, to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the Tokyo metropolitan election to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making.[11][12] After the election, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada resigned in connection with another scandal involving the Japan Self-Defense Forces concealing evidence of a battle in South Sudan.[12] Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader Renho in July, as well as several high-profile defections.[13]
The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began publicly discussing the possibility of an election in mid-September 2017, as the North Korea crisis was ongoing. Continuing the momentum of her Tokyo election victory, Koike announced the formation of a new national political party, Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope), on 25 September. Abe called the general election just hours later on the same day.[13] Soon after the Party of Hope was established, Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara sought to merge with Kibō no Tō. Maehara's decision was strongly criticised by the liberal wing of the party, whose candidacies were rejected by Koike. The liberal wing surrounding the deputy president Yukio Edano announced the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan on 2 October 2017.[14] Opposition politicians claim Abe called the election partly to evade further questioning in parliament over his alleged misuse of power in securing approval for a veterinary college campus in Imabari.[15]
One wedge issue between the two major coalitions is the scheduled consumption tax hike in October 2019. The LDP coalition advocates keeping the tax hike and using the funds for child care and education, while the Kibo coalition advocates freezing the tax hike.[16] Nonetheless, Koike stated on 8 October that she was open to the option of a grand coalition with the LDP.[17]
Several U.S.-Japan policy experts, including James Zumwalt and Michael Green, opined in October that the election was unlikely to have a major impact on policy as the LDP was expected to retain control; however, there was anxiety about the prospect of a leadership vacuum if Abe was eventually forced to resign as head of the LDP.[20]
Komeito, a nominally Buddhist party led by Natsuo Yamaguchi, is the junior coalition partner of the incumbent government. Holding 35 seats in the House of Representatives, the party is considered as social conservative and closely associated with the Soka Gakkai religious movement.
Koike's coalition
Kibō no Tō, also known as the Party of Hope, is the brand new conservative reformist party launched by Yuriko Koike, former LDP minister and incumbent Governor of Tokyo, on 25 September 2017 ahead of the general election. The new party attracted former members of the LDP as well as the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, the largest opposition party at the time, led by Seiji Maehara to join with the aims of overthrowing the Abe government.[21] Three members of the Ichirō Ozawa's Liberal Party also decided run under Koike's banner. Despite being tipped as the first Japan's woman Prime Minister, Koike has expressed no intention to run in the general election and stated that her party would not name a prime ministerial candidate during the election.[22] The party has promised to freeze the planned consumption tax increase and promote debate on the constitutional revision.[23]
Nippon Ishin no Kai, previously known as Initiatives from Osaka, is a Kansai-based party led by Governor of Osaka Ichirō Matsui. It split from the Japan Innovation Party in 2015. Having similar policies with Kibō no Tō, the party has agreed to cooperate with Koike in the coming election.[24]
Pacifist coalition
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP), the left-wing party led by Kazuo Shii, saw its recent resurgence in the 2014 House of Representative election due to its firm pacifist stance against the revision of Article 9 of the Constitution. The party currently is the second largest opposition party, holding 21 seats in the House of Representatives. The party forms an alliance with two other left-leaning parties, the Constitutional Democrats and the Social Democrats, and plans to field 243 candidates.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), a brand new centre-leftsocial liberal party formed by Yukio Edano on 2 October 2017 by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, the then largest opposition party, after Kibō no Tō refused to nominate the liberal candidates of the Democratic Party when the party leader Seiji Maehara decided to join Kibō no Tō with the party.[25] The party calls for Japan to phase out nuclear power, opposes the constitutional revision and the new national security legislation with two other left-leaning opposition parties. The party plans to field 78 candidates in the coming election.
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is the centre-left social democratic party led by Tadatomo Yoshida, which currently holds 2 seats in the House of Representatives. It opposes the revision of the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution, and forms an alliance with two other left-leaning to stop the constitutional revisionists from winning a two-thirds majority.[26]
Fewer than 20% of the 1,180 candidates that ran in the election were women. 9% of current elected figures are women, Japan ranks 165th out of 193 countries on this aspect.[27]
Agriculture Minister in the Second Abe Cabinet who was defeated in the district in 2014 but managed to return through the PR block at that time. He didn't enter the block this time round and therefore was not returned to the Diet.[29]
Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Third Abe Cabinet. Yamada famously defeated former DPJ leader Kaieda in the 2014 election.[31][32] Kaieda regained his seat in this election. Yamada was able to retain her Diet seat through the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.[33]
Former mayor of Musashino. Tsuchiya defeated former PM Kan in the 2014 election. Kan was able to return to the parliament through the Tokyo PR block and was the very last (475th) MP elected that night.[31][32] He regained his seat in the election. Conversely, Tsuchiya wasn't returned to the Diet as he was not in the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.[35]
Toyota resigned from the LDP due to a high-profile bullying scandal in June 2017.[41] At the time of the election, she was under investigation for assaulting her former aide. She contested as an independent as she wasn't selected by the LDP in the snap election.[42]
The success of the CDP in surpassing the Kibō no Tō in the number of seats and becoming the official opposition party was surprising. It presented a potential challenge for the ruling coalition to pass the constitutional amendment of Article 9, which was one of the main issues of the 2017 general election that was supported by Kibō no Tō leader Koike but opposed by the pacifist coalition.[45] With a supermajority in both the upper and the lower house, the ruling coalition was expected to pass other legislation without much resistance.[46] In a post-election conference, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was optimistic about moving forward, stating that the victory was the first time the LDP have "won three consecutive victories" under the same party leader.[47] The landslide victory achieved by the LDP campaign has been observed as not completely related to the popularity of Shinzo Abe, as the victory was also significantly influenced by the disconnect between the oppositions, notably the failure of Koike and the pacifist coalition to unite over many election issues.[47][48]
Nevertheless, the CDP finishing second led to Kibō no Tō dissolving in 2018 (with Shigefumi Matsuzawa reviving the party in a smaller capacity) and merging into the Democratic Party For the People, which subsequently largely merged into a refounded CDP, with the exception of a splinter group led by Yuichiro Tamaki. Koike became an independent, lightly cooperating with the LDP and her own regional party, Tomin First no Kai.[49]
^This poll is not specific to the PR blocks, but is rather a general voting-intention poll. "At the next elections, what is the party that you would like to vote for, or to which your preferred candidate belongs?"
^This response was phrased as "The government loses its majority", which would include both those wishing for a change in government, as well as those wishing for the coalition to negotiate with other parties
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