代表性捷思法

代表性捷思法（Representativeness Heuristic）是一種常見的捷思法。

阿摩司·特沃斯基和丹尼尔·卡内曼把代表性捷思法定義為「判斷事情基於(i)與母體特徵相似程度和(ii)和反映過程的顯著特徵」。[1][2]

the degree to which [an event] (i) is similar in essential characteristics to its parent population, and (ii) reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated
Kahneman, Tversky, Daniel, Amos

例子

很多人認為拋一枚均勻硬幣，如果首五次的結果都是正，那麼第六次很大機會是反。因為這個結果比較正常（令整體結果較接近1/2正反）。事實上，每次拋硬幣的結果都是獨立的，不論之前的結果如何，下次的結果都是半數機率正反。

很多人認為，內向的人較大機會成為圖書館管理員，而非零售店職員。因為圖書館管理員的特徵是內向，零售店職員的特徵是較主動的。但事實上，圖書館管理員的數目十分少，零售店職員的數目遠遠多於圖書館職員。所以，性格內向的人成為零售店職員的機會仍然是較大的。

參考文獻

  1. ^ Kahneman, Tversky, Daniel, Amos. Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Kahneman, Slovic, Tversky (编). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1972. 
  2. ^ Kahneman, D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1972. 

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