História contrafactual

A história contrafactual (do latim: contra facta = contra os fatos), também chamada de história virtual, é o resultado de um exercício mental científico, partindo de uma premissa (condição contrafactual ou ponto de divergência) para explorar - na base de fatos históricos ocorridos - as possíveis mudanças na história.

Em comparação, a história alternativa é mais como uma fonte de ficção comparável com a literatura fantástica, ficção científica ou ficção especulativa (no que se denominam ucronias).

A pergunta «O que teria acontecido se...?» é comum na história contrafactual sendo o ponto de partida para especulações históricas como (entre outros):

Alguns historiadores tais como Niall Ferguson têm promovido a história contrafactual como um método válido na ciência histórica. Ferguson publicou em 1998 o livro The pity of war[1] investigando as causas da Primeira Guerra Mundial. Ferguson extraiu a conclusão de que, se o Império Britânico não tivesse sido forçado a entrar em guerra no verão de 1914, uma possível vitória do Império Alemão evitaria o surgimento da Alemanha Nazi em 1933. A obra causou grande polêmica.

Mesmo assim, muitos historiadores consideram a história contrafactual como meras especulações não-científicas.

Ver também

Referências

  1. ↑ The Pity of War: Explaining World War I, Allen Lane/Penguin Press, 1998. ISBN 0 140275 23 1.
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