Status quo ante bellum
On 16 January 2024, Iran conducted a series of missile strikes in Pakistan, asserting that it had targeted militants of the Baloch separatist group Jaish ul-Adl in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. This attack occurred one day after a similar series of Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria, which the Iranian government had stated were in response to the Kerman bombings by the Islamic State on 3 January. Pakistan's government condemned the strikes as an "unprovoked violation" of Pakistani airspace.
Two days later, on 18 January, Pakistan conducted a retaliatory series of missile strikes in Iran, asserting that it had targeted militants of the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Iran's government condemned the strikes and stated that nine people had been killed, including four children. Pakistani airstrikes marked the first known instance of foreign country launching attacks on Iranian soil since the end of Iran-Iraq war 1988.[5]
Communicating through diplomatic channels on 19 January, both countries agreed to de-escalate and cooperate along the Iran–Pakistan border. Pakistan recalled the Iranian ambassador to Islamabad and reinstated the Pakistani ambassador in Tehran.
Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pakistan on 29 January 2024 at the invitation of Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani in a push to diffuse the standoff.
The Iran–Pakistan border, spanning across Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan and Pakistan's Balochistan, faces significant challenges due to its high porosity, making it susceptible to extensive smuggling and terrorist activities, primarily orchestrated by Baloch insurgents.[6] Despite maintaining a generally positive relationship, both countries have consistently accused each other of harboring terrorists and falling short in ensuring security on their respective sides of the border. These concerns prompted the establishment of the Iran–Pakistan border barrier, with construction commencing on the Iranian fortifications in 2011 and on the Pakistani fortifications in 2019.[7][8][9]
On 15 January 2024, Iran launched a barrage of 15 missiles directed at Iraq and Syria. Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, suffered most from the assault, with all but four missiles hitting the city. The remaining four struck Syria's Idlib Governorate, specifically targeting areas under the control of the Syrian opposition.
The Iranian government asserted that it aimed to strike Israel in Iraq by destroying the regional headquarters of Mossad. However, both the Iraqi government and the autonomous Kurdish government refuted this claim and condemned the attack. The Iranian missile attack occurred almost two weeks after the Kerman bombings, for which the Islamic State claimed responsibility.
After conducting airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran targeted Koh-e-Sabz, a locality in the Panjgur District of Pakistan's Balochistan province, which resulted in the death of two Pakistani nationals. Pakistan swiftly denounced the attack, taking diplomatic measures by expelling the Iranian ambassador from Islamabad, recalling its own ambassador from Tehran, and issuing a stern warning to Iran regarding potential retaliatory actions.
Iran justified its actions by claiming that it had aimed at Jaish ul-Adl, a Baloch insurgent group involved in the Sistan and Baluchestan insurgency. This group had previously claimed responsibility for the 2019 Khash–Zahedan suicide bombing that targeted the IRGC.
On 18 January, In a tit for tat move, Pakistan launched a retaliatory strike, codenamed Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, carried out by the Pakistan Air Force against seven targets of the Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front terrorists in the Saravan city of Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran.[10][11] Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi claimed nine foreign nationals were killed, including three women, four children and two men.[12] Such Pakistani strikes were the first known instances of attacks on Iranian soil since the end of the Iran-Iraq War.[13]
The Baluch Liberation Army, an ethnic separatist group, said the strikes had killed its members. "Pakistan will have to pay a price for it," the organization said