2019 Newfoundland and Labrador general election

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador general election

May 16, 2019
All 40[1] seats in the 49th House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador 21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	60.6%[2] ( 5.4 pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Dwight Ball Ches Crosbie Alison Coffin Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since November 17, 2013 April 28, 2018 March 5, 2019 Leader's seat Humber - Gros Morne Windsor Lake St. John's East-Quidi Vidi Last election 31 seats, 57.16% 7 seats, 30.08% 2 seats, 12.09% Seats before 27 8 2 Seats won 20 15 3 Seat change 7 7 1 Popular vote 93,746 90,690 13,432 Percentage 44.00% 42.57% 6.30% Swing 13.16pp 12.49pp 5.79pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election Dwight Ball Liberal Premier after election Dwight Ball Liberal

The 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador general election was held on May 16, 2019, to elect members of the 49th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.^[3]

Despite consistent Progressive Conservative leads in polling towards the end of the campaign, including a nine-point lead in the final poll released a day before the election,^[4] the Liberal Party led by Dwight Ball won re-election, but nonetheless fell one seat short of retaining their majority after an unexpected loss to the New Democrats in Labrador West originally in the initial count by five votes.^[5] This resulted in the Liberals winning 20 seats, exactly half of the House of Assembly. A subsequent recount shortened the margin of victory in Labrador West to just two votes.^{[6][7][8][9][10][11][12]}

Party standings

Summary of the House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador election results

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats
					2015	Dissol.	2019	Change
	Liberal	93,745	44.00	-13.3	31	27	20	-11
	Progressive Conservative	90,689	42.57	+12.5	7	8	15	+8
	New Democratic	13,434	6.31	-5.8	2	2	3	+1
	NL Alliance	5,086	2.39	New	New	New	0	New
	Independents	10,096	4.74	+4.0	0	3	2	+2
Total		213,050	100.00	–	40	40	40	0
Valid votes		213,050	99.18
Invalid/blank votes		1,757	0.82
Total votes		214,807	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		354,136	60.66

↓

20	15	3	2
Liberal	Progressive Conservative	NDP	Ind

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MHAs had announced that they would not be running in this provincial election:

Independent

• Dale Kirby (Mount Scio)

New Democratic Party

• Gerry Rogers (St. John's Centre)^[13]
• Lorraine Michael (St. John's East-Quidi Vidi)^[14]

Progressive Conservative Party

• Keith Hutchings (Ferryland)
• Tracey Perry (Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune)

Timeline

See also: 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador

Changes in seats held (2015–2019)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Mount Pearl-Southlands	May 19, 2016[15]	Paul Lane	█ Liberal	Removed from caucus[a 1]			█ Independent
Mount Pearl North	October 11, 2017[16]	Steve Kent	█ PC	Resignation[a 2]	November 21, 2017[17]	Jim Lester	█ PC
Humber-Bay of Islands	April 26, 2018[18]	Eddie Joyce	█ Liberal	Removed from caucus[a 3]			█ Independent
Mount Scio	April 30, 2018[19]	Dale Kirby	█ Liberal	Removed from caucus[a 3]			█ Independent
Windsor Lake	August 21, 2018[20]	Cathy Bennett	█ Liberal	Resignation	September 20, 2018[21]	Ches Crosbie	█ PC
Topsail-Paradise	November 1, 2018[22]	Paul Davis	█ PC	Resignation	January 24, 2019	Paul Dinn	█ PC

1. as a result of Lane's disapproval of deficit reduction levy
2. becoming Chief Administrative Officer for the City of Mount Pearl
3. amid allegations of harassment

2015

• November 30, 2015 – The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador wins 31 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly during the general election ending 12 years of Progressive Conservative rule and defeating incumbent premier Paul Davis.

2016

• May 19, 2016 - Liberal MHA Paul Lane is suspended from the Liberal caucus and sits as an independent MHA.^[23]
• October 11, 2016 - Former premier Paul Davis announces he'll resign as Tory leader once his successor is chosen.^[24]

2017

• July 31, 2017 - A cabinet shuffle takes place after Cathy Bennett resigns as Finance Minister. Dempster and Osborne enter cabinet.
• September 19, 2017 - NDP Leader Earle McCurdy announced his resignation as Party Leader, effective September 30.^[25]
• September 28, 2017 - NDP MHA Lorraine Michael is named interim leader of the NDP replacing Earle McCurdy who announced his resignation earlier in the month.
• October 11, 2017 - Mount Pearl North PC MHA Steve Kent resigns to become Chief Administrative Officer of Mount Pearl triggering a by-election.
• November 21, 2017 - Jim Lester (PC) is elected as MHA for Mount Pearl North.

2018

• April 8, 2018 - Gerry Rogers is elected as the leader of the New Democrats, succeeding Lorraine Michael.
• April 25, 2018 - Municipal Affairs Minister Eddie Joyce is formally accused of inappropriate conduct by another Liberal MHA. He is subsequently removed from cabinet and caucus pending the outcome of an external investigation.^[26]
• April 28, 2018 - Ches Crosbie is elected as the new leader of the Progressive Conservatives, succeeding Paul Davis.^[27]
• April 30, 2018 - Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development Dale Kirby is removed from cabinet and caucus following allegations of harassment.^[28]
• May 13, 2018 - Paul Davis announces his resignation as Leader of the Opposition. Since PC leader Ches Crosbie does not have a seat in the House of Assembly MHA David Brazil was appointed Leader of the Opposition on May 14, 2018.^[29]
• June 16, 2018 - Delegates at the Liberal Party Annual General Meeting vote to endorse the leadership of Dwight Ball with 79% voting against the party holding a leadership convention.^[30]
• August 21, 2018 - Liberal MHA Cathy Bennett resigns her seat of Windsor Lake.^[31]
• August 27, 2018 - CBC releases a copy of a report by the Commissioner for Legislative Standards that clears Eddie Joyce and Dale Kirby of wrongdoing in all the allegations made by fellow Liberal MHA Colin Holloway.^[32]
• September 20, 2018 - Ches Crosbie (PC) is elected as MHA for Windsor Lake.^[33]
• October 18, 2018 - Paul Davis (PC) announces his intention to resign as MHA for Topsail-Paradise on November 2.
• October 20, 2018 - MHA Dale Kirby leaks the results of the Commissioner for Legislative Standards report regarding MHA Pam Parsons’ complaint against him to the public. Kirby was cleared on all complaints, except making an inappropriate comment to Parsons at the 2016 Liberal Party AGM; the report recommended a sanction by the House of Assembly on that count.^[34]
• October 21, 2018 - The Joyce report is leaked to the public which found that Joyce had broken the code of conduct for elected officials when he lobbied Minister Gambin-Walsh to hire a friend of his for a government job; Joyce was cleared on all other allegations.^[35][36]
• October 30, 2018 - PC party president Graydon Pelley resigns and creates a new political party, the NL Alliance.^[37][38]
• November 8, 2018 - Cabinet shuffle takes place MHAs Davis, Haley, and Letto promoted to cabinet.^[39]
• November 16, 2018 - MHA Eddie Joyce confirms he has been denied re-entry into the Liberal caucus.

2019

• January 24, 2019 - Paul Dinn (PC) is elected as MHA for Topsail-Paradise.^[40]
• February 12, 2019 - NDP Leader Gerry Rogers announced she would be stepping down as leader and not seeking re-election in 2019.^[41]
• March 5, 2019 - Alison Coffin is acclaimed leader of the NDP.^[42]
• April 12, 2019 - The NL Alliance is officially registered as a political party in Newfoundland and Labrador.^[43]
• April 16, 2019 - Budget is tabled in the House of Assembly.
• April 17, 2019 - Premier Ball visits Lt. Gov. Judy Foote and the writ is dropped.
• June 21, 2019 - A judicial recount confirms Jordan Brown as MHA for Labrador West by a two-vote margin.^[6]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Day of Polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	NLA
Forum Research	May 15, 2019	PDF	38	47	7
Mainstreet Research	May 14, 2019	HTML	41	45	8	3
Abacus Data	May 5, 2019	HTML Archived 2019-07-19 at the Wayback Machine	37	42	15
Forum Research	May 4, 2019	PDF	40	42	13
MQO Research	May 4, 2019	PDF	48	36	11	2
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	February 24, 2019	PDF Archived 2019-03-07 at the Wayback Machine	45	38	16
MQO Research	January 28, 2019	PDF	44	42	12
Mainstreet Research	January 14, 2019	HTML	42	43.3	11.5
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	November 24, 2018	PDF Archived 2018-12-16 at the Wayback Machine	46	35	17
Mainstreet Research	November 1, 2018	HTML	44.6	39.1	12.8
MQO Research	October 26, 2018	PDF	47	35	16
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	August 30, 2018	PDF Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine	43	35	19
MQO Research	August 2, 2018	PDF	44	38	16
Mainstreet Research	July 17, 2018	HTML	45.8	35.6	12.5
Abacus Data	May 27, 2018	HTML Archived 2018-06-03 at the Wayback Machine	38	40	22
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	May 17, 2018	PDF^[permanent dead link‍]	36	42	22
MQO Research	May 13, 2018	PDF	44	36	16
Mainstreet Research	May 3, 2018	HTML	41.7	35.7	18.4
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	February 28, 2018	PDF Archived 2018-03-07 at the Wayback Machine	41	33	24
MQO Research	January 25, 2018	PDF	43	38	16
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	November 30, 2017	PDF Archived 2017-12-08 at the Wayback Machine	44	33	19
MQO Research	October 19, 2017	PDF	52	31	15
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	September 13, 2017	PDF Archived 2017-09-13 at the Wayback Machine	40	33	24
MQO Research	July 19, 2017	PDF	35	48	16
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	June 1, 2017	PDF Archived 2017-07-30 at the Wayback Machine	34	40	24
MQO Research	April 26, 2017	PDF	37	39	23
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	February 28, 2017	PDF Archived 2017-07-30 at the Wayback Machine	33	39	26
MQO Research	January 23, 2017	PDF	43	36	20
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	December 1, 2016	PDF Archived 2016-12-20 at the Wayback Machine	42	34	23
Abacus Data	October 29, 2016	PDF Archived 2017-07-30 at the Wayback Machine	36	29	34
MQO Research	October 22, 2016	PDF	40	31	27
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	August 31, 2016	PDF Archived 2017-07-30 at the Wayback Machine	34	33	32
MQO Research	July 27, 2016	PDF	30	37	33
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	May 30, 2016	PDF Archived 2016-06-24 at the Wayback Machine	27	34	38
MQO Research	April 21, 2016	PDF	37	30	31
Corporate Research Associates Inc.	March 9, 2016	PDF Archived 2017-07-30 at the Wayback Machine	66	23	11
Election 2015	November 30, 2015	–	57.2	30.1	12.1

Results by region

Party Name			St. John's	Avalon/St. John's Metro	Central/Eastern	Western	Labrador	Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature:
	Liberal	Seats:	4	3	6	5	2	20
		Popular Vote:	15,989	24,884	29,040	19,344	4,489	93,746
	Progressive Conservative	Seats:	1	7	5	1	1	15
		Popular Vote:	11,578	36,642	28,136	11,461	2,873	90,690
	New Democratic	Seats:	2	0	0	0	1	3
		Popular Vote:	9,704	1,321	0	1,043	1,364	13,432
	Others	Seats:	0	1	0	1	0	2
		Popular Vote:	406	6,703	2,482	4,988	603	15,182

Candidates by district

• All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
• Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
• † represents that the incumbent is not running again.
• § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
• ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination
• ‡ represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.

St. John's

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		NDP		Alliance
Mount Scio 54.51% turnout		Sarah Stoodley 1,981 41.68%		Lloyd Power 1,769 37.21%		Jason R. Mercer 597 12.56%		Graydon Pelley[44] 406 8.54%		Dale Kirby†
St. John's Centre 48.60% turnout		Seamus O'Keefe 1,207 25.54%		Jonathan Galgay 1,301 27.53%		Jim Dinn 2,218 46.93%				Gerry Rogers†
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 58.03% turnout		George Murphy 2,072 33.38%		David Porter 1,436 23.14%		Alison Coffin[45] 2,699 43.48%				Lorraine Michael†
St. John's West 57.31% turnout		Siobhan Coady 2,393 45.69%		Shane Skinner[46] 2,211 42.22%		Brenda Walsh[47] 633 12.09%				Siobhan Coady
Virginia Waters-Pleasantville 63.64% turnout		Bernard Davis 2,761 44.25%		Beth Crosbie[48] 2,217 35.53%		Jenn Deon[49] 1,262 20.22%				Bernard Davis
Waterford Valley 52.54% turnout		Tom Osborne 3,487 68.56%				Matthew Cooper 1,599 31.44%				Tom Osborne
Windsor Lake 59.65% turnout		Bob Osborne 2,088 38.47%		Ches Crosbie 2,644 48.71%		Tomás Shea 696 12.82%				Ches Crosbie

St. John's suburbs

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		NDP		Alliance		Other
Cape St. Francis 71.40% turnout		Michael Duffy 1,115 17.75%		Kevin Parsons 4,539 72.24%		Peter Beck 396 6.30%		Ryan Lane 233 3.71%				Kevin Parsons
Conception Bay East – Bell Island 55.56% turnout		Cyril Hayden 1,551 26.22%		David Brazil[48] 4,365 73.78%								David Brazil
Conception Bay South 61.85% turnout		Kevin Baker 1,256 22.78%		Barry Petten 3,447 62.52%				Warrick Butler 810 14.69%				Barry Petten
Mount Pearl North 57.88% turnout		Nicole Kieley 2,196 37.20%		Jim Lester 2,907 49.24%		Carol Reade 358 6.06%		William Neville 443 7.50%				Jim Lester
Mount Pearl-Southlands 65.71% turnout		Hasan Hai 1,826 28.30%		Gillian Pearson 1,590 24.64%		David Brake 214 3.32%				Paul Lane (Ind.) 2,823 43.75%		Paul Lane
Topsail-Paradise 54.75% turnout		Patricia Hynes-Coates 1,650 28.95%		Paul Dinn 3,476 60.98%				Lori Best-Moore 574 10.07%				Paul Dinn

Avalon Peninsula

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde 66.57% turnout		Steve Crocker 4,292 60.28%		Jason Oliver 2,422 34.02%		Kathleen Burt 353 4.96%		Edward Thomas Cole (Ind.) 53 0.74%		Steve Crocker
Ferryland 69.27% turnout		Janice Ryan 2,350 34.95%		Loyola O'Driscoll 4,074 60.59%				Chris Molloy (Ind.) 300 4.46%		Keith Hutchings†
Harbour Grace-Port de Grave 71.18% turnout		Pam Parsons 3,758 52.24%		Glenn Littlejohn 3,408 47.56%						Pam Parsons
Harbour Main 69.85% turnout		Betty Parsley 2,126 30.64%		Helen Conway-Ottenheimer 4,169 60.08%				Mike Cooze (NL Alliance) 643 9.27%		Betty Parsley
Placentia-St. Mary's 65.69% turnout		Sherry Gambin-Walsh 2,764 47.39%		Hilda Whelan 2,245 38.49%				Steve Thorne (Ind.) 824 14.13%		Sherry Gambin-Walsh

Eastern Newfoundland

Electoral district	Candidates						Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Alliance
Bonavista 59.36% turnout		Neil King 2,566 49.57%		Craig Pardy[46] 2,611 50.43%				Neil King
Burin-Grand Bank 65.70% turnout		Carol Anne Haley 2,822 51.62%		Bill Matthews 2,645 48.38%				Carol Anne Haley
Placentia West-Bellevue 65.69% turnout		Mark Browne 2,667 44.23%		Jeff Dwyer 3,363 55.77%				Mark Browne
Terra Nova 64.25% turnout		Colin Holloway 2,595 43.47%		Lloyd Parrott 2,876 48.17%		Barry Moores 499 8.36%		Colin Holloway

Central Newfoundland

Electoral district	Candidates						Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Other
Baie Verte-Green Bay 59.96% turnout		Brian Warr 2,809 49.73%		Neville Robinson 1,872 33.14%		Ben Callahan (NL Alliance) 968 17.14%		Brian Warr
Exploits 64.65% turnout		Jerry Dean 1,924 33.10%		Pleaman Forsey 2,874 49.44%		Gloria Cooper (Ind.) 1,015 17.46%		Jerry Dean
Fogo Island-Cape Freels 52.10% turnout		Derrick Bragg 2,811 54.31%		Sue Collins 2,365 45.69%				Derrick Bragg
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 61.20% turnout		Elvis Loveless 1,759 53.38%		Charlene Walsh 1,536 46.62%				Tracey Perry†
Gander 61.60% turnout		John Haggie 3,311 58.57%		Ryan Wagg 2,342 41.43%				John Haggie
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 60.75% turnout		Al Hawkins 2,586 46.84%		Chris Tibbs 2,935 53.16%				Al Hawkins
Lewisporte-Twillingate 60.69% turnout		Derek Bennett 3,190 54.00%		Krista Freake 2,717 46.00%				Derek Bennett

Western Newfoundland

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other
Burgeo-La Poile 52.13% turnout		Andrew Parsons 2,947 83.46%		Deborah Ann Turner 584 16.54%						Andrew Parsons
Corner Brook 49.87% turnout		Gerry Byrne 2,436 48.85%		Tom Stewart 1,682 33.73%		Mary B. Feltham 733 14.70%		Wayne Bennett (Ind.) 136 2.73%		Gerry Byrne
Humber-Gros Morne 68.11% turnout		Dwight Ball 4,247 69.94%		Greg Osmond 1,825 30.06%						Dwight Ball
Humber-Bay of Islands 62.65% turnout		Brian Dicks 1,068 17.20%		Michael Patrick Holden 659 10.61%		Shawn A. Hodder 310 4.99%		Eddie Joyce (Ind.) 4,172 67.19%		Eddie Joyce
St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows 64.85% turnout		Chris Mitchelmore 3,474 61.16%		Sheila Fitzgerald 2,036 35.85%				Ford Mitchelmore (Ind.) 170 2.99%		Chris Mitchelmore
St. George's-Humber 60.23% turnout		Scott Reid 2,691 50.17%		Tom O’Brien 2,163 40.32%				Shane Snook (NL Alliance) 510 9.51%		Scott Reid
Stephenville-Port au Port 55.06% turnout		John Finn 2,481 49.67%		Tony Wakeham 2,512 50.31%						John Finn

Labrador

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 58.80% turnout		Lisa Dempster 1,132 67.22%						Michael Normore (Ind.)[50][a] 552 32.78%		Lisa Dempster
Labrador West 54.21% turnout		Graham Letto 1,362 42.07%		Derick Sharron 509 15.73%		Jordan Brown 1,364 42.16%				Graham Letto
Lake Melville 55.62% turnout		Perry Trimper 1,517 45.84%		Shannon Tobin 1,189 35.93%				Jim Learning (Ind.) 603 18.22%		Perry Trimper
Torngat Mountains 55.24% turnout		Randy Edmunds 478 43.42%		Lela Evans 623 55.58%						Randy Edmunds

Results

The Liberals lost their parliamentary majority.

Incumbent MHAs who were defeated

Party		Name	Constituency	Year elected	Seat held by party since	Defeated by	Party
	Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador	Betty Parsley	Harbour Main	2015	2015	Helen Conway-Ottenheimer		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Neil King	Bonavista	2015	2015	Craig Pardy		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Mark Browne	Placentia West-Bellevue	2015	2015	Jeff Dwyer		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Colin Holloway	Terra Nova	2015	2015	Lloyd Parrott		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Jerry Dean	Exploits	2015	2015	Pleaman Forsey		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Al Hawkins	Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	2015	2015	Chris Tibbs		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		John Finn	Stephenville-Port au Port	2015	2015	Tony Wakeham		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
		Graham Letto	Labrador West	2015	2015	Jordan Brown		Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party
		Randy Edmunds	Torngat Mountains	2011	2011	Lela Evans		Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador

Notes

1. Although Normore was expelled from the party due to his stance against same-sex marriage and abortion, he remained on the ballot as a Progressive Conservative candidate.

References

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Further reading

• Marland, Alex; Loder, Hannah (July 2021). "More Than the Usual Turmoil: The 2019 Provincial Election in Newfoundland and Labrador". Canadian Political Science Review. 15 (1): 16–33. doi:10.24124/c677/20211787. ISSN 1911-4125.