2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election
2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election Opinion polls Turnout 55.2%[ 1]
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
The 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election , held on November 30, 2015, elected members of the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador . The Progressive Conservative Party which had governed since 2003 election , was defeated by the Liberal Party , which won a majority in the new assembly.[ 2] [ 3] [ 4] [ 5]
The election had been scheduled for October 13, 2015, under Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly Act, mandating a fixed election day on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election. However, the House of Assembly amended the act in June 2015, to delay the election until November 30, 2015, so that the election campaign would not overlap with the federal election scheduled on October 19, 2015.[ 6]
Following the result of the election no party with the word "Conservative" in its name formed the government in either a provincial or federal jurisdiction in Canada for the first time since 1943.[ 7] [ 8]
At the time --with 55.2% of eligible voters casting a ballot -- this election had the lowest turnout of any provincial election since confederation. This record was broken in 2021 when only 48.24% of eligible voters cast a ballot.[ 9]
Party leadership
Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen.[ 10] On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.[ 11] [ 12] Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013, Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party.[ 13] [ 14] [ 15]
On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader.[ 16] On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier.[ 17] Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014, and chose Paul Davis as its leader.[ 18] [ 19] [ 20] [ 21] Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014.[ 22]
Timeline
2011
2012
January 3, 2012: Dwight Ball becomes interim leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.[ 23]
September 13, 2012: Progressive Conservative MHA Tom Osborne announces that he has left the party and will sit as an independent.[ 24]
2013
April 8, 2013: Yvonne Jones (Liberal) resigns her Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair seat to run in a federal by-election in Labrador .[ 25]
June 25, 2013: Lisa Dempster (Liberal) is elected MHA for Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair , following the resignation of Yvonne Jones .
July 18, 2013: Bay of Islands MHA Eddie Joyce is named Leader of the Opposition and Interim Liberal Leader replacing Dwight Ball who resigned to run for the leadership permanently in the party's 2013 leadership election .[ 26] [ 27]
August 29, 2013: Independent MHA Tom Osborne (former PC) joins the Liberal caucus.[ 28]
October 2, 2013: Jerome Kennedy (PC) resigns his Carbonear-Harbour Grace seat.[ 29]
October 21, 2013: The media reports that NDP Leader Lorraine Michael received a letter signed by all four members of her caucus over the previous weekend calling for a leadership election to be held in 2014.[ 30] [ 31] Michael subsequently asks the party to hold a leadership review in 2014 in which her leadership would be voted on, but not a full party convention.[ 32]
October 29, 2013: NDP MHAs Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore announce that they have left the NDP caucus and will sit as independents.[ 33]
November 17, 2013: Dwight Ball is elected as leader of the Liberal Party.[ 34]
November 26, 2013: Liberal Sam Slade is elected MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace .[ 35]
2014
January 20, 2014: PC MHA Paul Lane for Mount Pearl South crosses the floor to the Liberal Party.[ 36]
January 24, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns as Premier. Finance Minister Tom Marshall is sworn in as premier until Dunderdale's successor is chosen.[ 16]
January 27, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore resign their NDP memberships and are now full Independents.[ 37]
February 4, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore cross the floor to the Liberal Party.[ 38]
February 28, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns her Virginia Waters seat.[ 39]
April 9, 2014: Cathy Bennett (Liberal) is elected MHA for Virginia Waters .[ 40]
April 17, 2014: Frank Coleman becomes leader-designate of the Progressive Conservative Party following the withdrawal of sole competitor Bill Barry from the leadership election .[ 41]
May 18, 2014: Following a party crisis in October 2013, Lorraine Michael is endorsed by 75% of NDP members during a leadership review.[ 42]
June 2, 2014: Joan Shea (PC) resigns her St. George's-Stephenville East seat.[ 43]
June 16, 2014: Citing a "significant and challenging family matter," Frank Coleman announces his withdrawal from the Progressive Conservative leadership race .[ 44] As the only candidate left in the race, Coleman was to officially become Progressive Conservative leader at the party's convention on July 5, 2014.[ 18] Following his withdrawal, Premier Tom Marshall announced that a convention would likely be postponed until after Labour Day .[ 44]
August 26, 2014: Scott Reid (Liberal) is elected MHA for St. George's-Stephenville East .[ 45]
September 5, 2014: Charlene Johnson (PC) resigns her Trinity-Bay de Verde seat.[ 46]
September 13, 2014: Paul Davis is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives .[ 47]
September 18, 2014: Terry French (PC) resigns his Conception Bay South seat.[ 48]
September 26, 2014: Paul Davis is sworn in as premier.
November 3, 2014: Tom Marshall (PC) resigns his Humber East seat.[ 49]
November 5, 2014: Rex Hillier (Liberal) is elected MHA for Conception Bay South .[ 50]
November 25, 2014: Steve Crocker (Liberal) and Stelman Flynn (Liberal) are elected as MHAs for Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East respectively.[ 51]
2015
Campaign
Davis PC Campaign Bus
In June 2015, Premier Davis announced that a general election would be held in November, after the October federal election. Many veteran PC MHAs who had served in Danny Williams' cabinet did not seek re-election.[ 56] On November 5, Davis visited the lieutenant governor to request that the House of Assembly be dissolved. The election would be held on November 30.
The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66 per cent support among decided voters at the outset[ 57] and 67 per cent support in a poll released just one week before election day.[ 58]
Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province,[ 59] although others suggested that this was unlikely.[ 60] Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested,[ 59] and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them.[ 60]
In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs.[ 61] [ 62]
The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile , who took fully 96.5 per cent of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes.[ 63]
Party standings
This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.
Results by party
This section
needs expansion . You can help by
adding to it .
(June 2016 )
↓
31
7
2
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
NDP
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However, in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%) while in 2015 they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%). By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes . 6 liberal candidates won over 80% of the popular vote in their respective ridings and 4 of these 6 candidates were later appointed to the Executive Council.
Progressive Conservative Party
With this election PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). With 7 of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won 3 of 42 seats.[ 64]
New Democratic Party
In the 2011 election the NDP placed second in total votes and won 5 seats (a record-high for the party) however since the election 2 NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only 2 of the 3 remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election and these 2 MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning 2 of 40 seats (5%). However, NDP leader McCurdy was defeated in his district.[ 65]
Results by region
The district with the highest turnout was Cape St. Francis (71.68%). The district with the lowest turnout was Torngat Mountains (39.50%).[ 66]
This section
needs expansion . You can help by
adding to it .
(June 2016 )
Party Name
St. John's
St. John's Metro
Avalon /Burin
Central
Western
Labrador
Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature:
Progressive Conservative
Seats:
0
5
1
1
0
0
7
Popular Vote:
19.81%
54.74%
29.71%
34.51%
13.50%
18.90%
30.22%
Liberal
Seats:
5
1
6
8
7
4
31
Popular Vote:
50.27%
36.97%
61.80%
55.76%
79.19%
63.41%
57.15%
New Democratic
Seats:
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
Popular Vote:
29.92%
8.29%
8.19%
7.17%
7.31%
17.69%
11.96%
Parties that won no seats in the legislature
Independent
Popular Vote:
0.30%
2.56%
0.67%
Candidates by district
Bold incumbents indicate cabinet members and party leaders are italicized . The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.
All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
† Represents that the incumbent is not running again.
§ represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination.
‡ Represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.
St. John's
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
PC
Liberal
NDP
Other
Mount Scio 46.81% turnout
Rhonda Churchill Herder 1,104 27.4%
Dale Kirby 1,899 47.1%
Sean Panting 1,030 25.5%
Dale KirbySt. John's North
St. John's Centre 47.58% turnout
Kathie Hicks 490 10.6%
Lynn Sullivan 1,923 41.7%
Gerry Rogers 2,195 47.6%
Gerry Rogers
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 56.40% turnout
Joshua Collier 478 8.1%
Paul Antle 2,365 40.2%
Lorraine Michael 3,035 51.6%
George Murphy †St. John's East
St. John's West 55.63% turnout
Dan Crummell [ 67] 1,364 26.8%
Siobhan Coady [ 67] 2,342 46.0%
Earle McCurdy [ 67] 1,384 27.2%
Dan Crummell
Virginia Waters-Pleasantville 56.55% turnout
Beth Crosbie 1,826 32.5%
Bernard Davis 2,528 45.0%
Bob Buckingham 1,259 22.4
Lorraine Michael ‡Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi
Waterford Valley 55.13% turnout
Alison Stoodley 792 14.6%
Tom Osborne 3,588 65.9%
Alison Coffin 1,062 19.5%
John Dinn Kilbride
Merged District
Tom OsborneSt. John's South
Windsor Lake 52.59% turnout
Ryan Cleary 970 20.2%
Cathy Bennett 3,182 66.3%
Don Rowe 647 13.5%
Cathy BennettVirginia Waters
St. John's suburbs
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
PC
Liberal
NDP
Other
Cape St. Francis 71.68% turnout
Kevin Parsons 4,086 66.3%
Geoff Gallant 1,613 26.2%
Mark Gruchy 460 7.5%
Kevin Parsons
Conception Bay South 55.03% turnout
Barry Petten 2,360 47.7%
Steve Porter 2,187 44.2%
Jeanne Clarke 398 8.0%
Rex Hillier ‡
Mount Pearl North 63.09% turnout
Steve Kent 3,120 51.5%
Randy Simms 2,571 42.4%
Cameron Mercer-Maillet 370 6.1%
Steve Kent
Mount Pearl-Southlands 56.58% turnout
Jim Lester 2,318 42.9%
Paul Lane 2,559 47.4%
Roy Locke 522 9.7%
Paul LaneMount Pearl South
Conception Bay East – Bell Island 55.46% turnout
David Brazil 3,463 59.2%
Danny Dumaresque 1,582 27.1%
Bill Kavanagh 803 13.7%
David Brazil
Topsail-Paradise 57.58% turnout
Paul Davis 3,381 58.3%
Rex Hillier 2,137 36.9%
Chris Bruce 281 4.8%
Paul Davis Topsail
Avalon Peninsula
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
PC
Liberal
NDP
Other
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde 49.02% turnout
Tomas Shea 529 9.1%
Steve Crocker 4,952 85.0%
David Coish 304 5.2%
Ed Cole (Ind.) 38 0.7%
Steve CrockerTrinity-Bay de Verde
Merged District
Sam Slade §Carbonear-Harbour Grace
Ferryland 62.34% turnout
Keith Hutchings 3,093 49.8%
Jeff Marshall 2,550 41.1%
Mona Rossiter 564 9.1%
Keith Hutchings
Harbour Grace-Port de Grave 59.50% turnout
Glenn Littlejohn 2,289 36.3%
Pam Parsons 3,877 61.5%
Kathleen Burt 133 2.1%
Glenn Littlejohn Port de Grave
Harbour Main 56.31% turnout
Curtis Buckle 1,998 34.9%
Betty Parsley 2,253 39.4%
Raymond Flaherty 1,381 24.2%
Ted Noseworthy 85 1.5%
Tom Hedderson †
Placentia-St. Mary's 61.71% turnout
Judy Manning 1,751 30.5%
Sherry Gambin-Walsh 3,789 66.0%
Peter Beck 197 3.4%
Felix Collins †
Eastern Newfoundland
Central Newfoundland
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
PC
Liberal
NDP
Other
Baie Verte-Green Bay 55.90% turnout
Kevin Pollard 2,197 39.4%
Brian Warr 3,130 56.1%
Matt Howse 253 4.5%
Kevin PollardBaie Verte-Springdale
Exploits 56.16% turnout
Clayton Forsey 2,489 47.0%
Jerry Dean 2,654 50.2%
Bridget Henley 148 2.8%
Clayton Forsey
Fogo Island-Cape Freels 48.20% turnout
Eli Cross 1,387 27.6%
Derrick Bragg 3,516 69.9%
Rebecca Stuckey 128 2.5%
Eli CrossBonavista North
Gander 47.40% turnout
Ryan Menchion 351 7.5%
John Haggie 3,151 67.7%
Lukas Norman 1,152 24.8%
Vacant
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 67.66% turnout
Tracey Perry 1,830 49.1%
Bill Carter 1,405 37.7%
Mildred Skinner 494 13.2%
Tracey Perry
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 54.32% turnout
Mark Whiffen 1,061 22.8%
Al Hawkins 2,534 54.6%
Meaghan Keating 141 3.0%
Rex Barnes (Ind.) 908 19.6%
Susan Sullivan †Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
Merged District
Ray Hunter †Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South
Lewisporte-Twillingate 58.44% turnout
Derrick Dalley 2,686 44.5%
Derek Bennett 3,254 53.9%
Hillary Bushell 99 1.6%
Wade Verge †Lewisporte
Merged District
Derrick DalleyThe Isles of Notre Dame
Western Newfoundland
Labrador
Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015.[ 68]
MHAs not running again
Progressive Conservative
Felix Collins , Placentia—St. Mary's [ 69]
John Dinn , Kilbride
Vaughn Granter , Humber West [ 70]
Tom Hedderson , Harbour Main [ 71]
Ray Hunter , Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South [ 72]
Clyde Jackman , Burin-Placentia West [ 73]
Darin King , Grand Bank [ 74]
Susan Sullivan , Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans [ 75]
Wade Verge , Lewisporte [ 76]
Ross Wiseman , Trinity North [ 77]
Liberal
New Democratic Party
Opinion polls
Polling Firm
Date of Polling
Link
Progressive Conservative
Liberal
New Democratic
Forum Research
November 29, 2015
[1]
31
54
15
Abacus Data
November 22–24, 2015
[2]
22
64
13
Forum Research
November 24, 2015
[3]
29
52
19
Corporate Research Associates
November 5–22, 2015
[4]
22
67
10
MQO
November 5–11, 2015
[5]
17
74
9
Forum Research
November 6, 2015
[6]
21
65
13
Abacus Data
October 30–November 4, 2015
[7]
19
66
15
Corporate Research Associates
August 11–September 2, 2015
[8]
27
48
25
Abacus Data/VOCM
June 17–21, 2015
[9]
21
53
25
Corporate Research Associates
May 11–June 1, 2015
[10]
27
50
22
Corporate Research Associates
February 9–March 2, 2015
[11]
31
56
13
Abacus Data
February 17–25, 2015
[12]
32
57
9
Corporate Research Associates
November 5–30, 2014
[13]
29
60
10
MQO
October 20–25, 2014
[14]
28
62
11
Corporate Research Associates
August 7–September 1, 2014
[15]
26
58
15
Abacus Data/VOCM
July 28–August 1, 2014
[16]
34
48
16
Corporate Research Associates
May 12–31, 2014
[17]
29
53
16
Corporate Research Associates
February 11– March 4, 2014
[18]
33
53
13
Abacus Data/VOCM
January 27–30, 2014
[19]
34
49
15
Corporate Research Associates
November 7–30, 2013
[20]
29
52
19
MQO
October 22–26, 2013
[ 82]
29
52
18
Corporate Research Associates
August 8–31, 2013
[21]
26
41
33
Corporate Research Associates
May 8–30, 2013
[22]
27
36
37
Corporate Research Associates
February 11–March 8, 2013
PDF
38
22
39
MQO
January 21–27, 2013
[ 83]
36
28
35
Corporate Research Associates
November 13-December 1, 2012
[ 84]
46
23
31
Corporate Research Associates
August 9–September 2, 2012
PDF
45
22
33
Environics Research Group
June 19–29, 2012
PDF
35
26
38
Corporate Research Associates
May 10–June 4, 2012
PDF
49
18
33
Corporate Research Associates
February 13–29, 2012
HTML
54
18
28
Corporate Research Associates
November 9–29, 2011
PDF
60
13
26
Election 2011
October 11, 2011
–
56.1
19.1
24.6
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