2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina

2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina

← 2008 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2020 →
 
Nominee Thom Tillis Kay Hagan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,423,259 1,377,651
Percentage 48.82% 47.26%

Tillis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Hagan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:       No Vote:      

U.S. senator before election

Kay Hagan
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.

Incumbent Democratic senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office and lost to Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives by about 45,000 votes and a margin of 1.6%.[1] This made the election the second-closest race of the 2014 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Kay Hagan, incumbent U.S. senator[2][3]
  • Ernest T. Reeves,[4] retired U.S. Army captain[5]
  • Will Stewart, small business owner[6]

Withdrew

Results

Democratic primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kay Hagan (incumbent) 372,209 77.16%
Democratic Will Stewart 66,903 13.87%
Democratic Ernest T. Reeves 43,257 8.97%
Total votes 482,369 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.[10]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Brannon

Politicians

Political figures

Organisations

Mark Harris
Thom Tillis

Organizations

Politicians

State legislators

Polling

Primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ted
Alexander
Alex
Bradshaw
Greg
Brannon
Heather
Grant
Mark
Harris
Edward
Kryn
Jim
Snyder
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 305 ± 5.6% 10% 13% 13% 8% 2% 20% 34%
American Insights[54] February 11–15, 2014 168 ± 7.6% 4% 4% 7% 11% 74%
Public Policy Polling[53] March 6–9, 2014 392 ± 5% 7% 6% 14% 11% 7% 1% 4% 14% 36%
SurveyUSA[55] March 17–19, 2014 405 ± 5% 7% 4% 15% 11% 6% 3% 4% 28% 23%
SurveyUSA[56] March 19–23, 2014 405 ± 5% 1% 2% 13% 5% 9% 0% 5% 27% 38%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 433 ± 4.8% 6% 1% 15% 6% 11% 2% 3% 23% 34%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 314 ± 5.5% 6% 5% 15% 7% 11% 1% 2% 18% 34%
SurveyUSA[59] April 16–22, 2014 392 ± 5% 1% 1% 20% 2% 15% 2% 2% 39% 19%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 26–28, 2014 694 ± 3.7% 2% 1% 20% 5% 11% 2% 3% 46% 12%
Public Policy Polling[60] May 3–4, 2014 925 ± 3.2% 2% 0% 28% 4% 15% 1% 1% 40% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger
Greg
Brannon
Jim
Cain
Renee
Ellmers
Bill
Flynn
Virginia
Foxx
Heather
Grant
Mark
Harris
Thom
Tillis
Lynn
Wheeler
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 374 ± 5.1% 11% 7% 8% 9% 23% 4% 9% 3% 27%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 373 ± 5.1% 11% 7% 11% 11% 16% 1% 5% 3% 35%
22% 18% 21% 39%
25% 32% 43%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 344 ± 5.3% 9% 7% 9% 18% 4% 4% 8% 2% 40%
22% 23% 56%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 311 ± 5.6% 13% 6% 11% 8% 5% 12% 2% 43%
Public Policy Polling[65] November 8–11, 2013 498 ± 4.4% 11% 8% 14% 20% 47%
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 529 ± 4.3% 11% 8% 11% 12% 13% 44%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 575 ± 4.1% 11% 7% 11% 8% 19% 44%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger
Cherie
Berry
Greg
Brannon
Renee
Ellmers
Terry
Embler
Dan
Forest
Virginia
Foxx
George
Holding
Patrick
McHenry
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 518 ± 4.3% 7% 18% 5% 10% 1% 18% 3% 10% 3% 27%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 530 ± 4.3% 8% 12% 4% 10% 1% 18% 13% 7% 2% 24%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 468 ± 4.5% 11% 18% 6% 12% 1% 13% 7% 32%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 366 ± 5.1% 10% 14% 7% 10% 15% 6% 38%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger
Renee
Ellmers
Virginia
Foxx
George
Holding
Richard
Hudson
Patrick
McHenry
Mark
Meadows
Sue
Myrick
Robert
Pittenger
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 462 ± 4.6% 11% 17% 9% 6% 13% 4% 14% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 449 ± 4.6% 5% 11% 21% 2% 5% 15% 6% 2% 33%

Runoff

Hypothetical runoff polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Greg
Brannon
Thom
Tillis
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[58] April 26–28, 2014 694 ± 3.7% 32% 50% 18%
Public Policy Polling[60] May 3–4, 2014 925 ± 3.2% 40% 46% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Harris
Thom
Tillis
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[58] April 26–28, 2014 694 ± 3.7% 27% 53% 20%
Public Policy Polling[60] May 3–4, 2014 925 ± 3.2% 34% 49% 16%

Results

Results by county:
  Tillis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Brannon
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Harris
  •   30–40%
Republican primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thom Tillis 223,174 45.68%
Republican Greg Brannon 132,630 27.15%
Republican Mark Harris 85,727 17.55%
Republican Heather Grant 22,971 4.70%
Republican Jim Snyder 9,414 1.93%
Republican Ted Alexander 9,258 1.89%
Republican Alex Lee Bradshaw 3,528 0.72%
Republican Edward Kryn 1,853 0.38%
Total votes 488,555 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Sean Haugh 1,226 60.69%
Libertarian Tim D'Annunzio 794 39.31%
Total votes 2,020 100.00%

Other parties

Certified write-in candidates

General election

Candidates

Outside spending

In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.[78]

OpenSecrets placed the final cost of outside spending at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis.[79]

Debates

Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third (the only one to feature Sean Haugh) on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.[80]

Video of the first debate is available here, with the second here and the third here.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[81] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] Lean D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[83] Tossup November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[84] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Thom
Tillis (R)
Sean
Haugh (L)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 48% 38% 14%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 47% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 50% 36% 14%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 49% 39% 11%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 41% 11%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 51% 36% 14%
Public Policy Polling[85] October 4–6, 2013 746 ± ?% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling[65] November 8–11, 2013 701 ± 4% 44% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 44% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 42% 43% 15%
Harper Polling[86] January 20–21, 2014 778 ± 3.51% 44% 44% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[87] January 22–23, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 47% 3% 10%
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 40% 42% 17%
American Insights[54] February 11–15, 2014 611 ± 4% 38% 35% 26%
Hickman Analytics[88] February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 45% 41% 13%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 45% 43% 13%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 45% 46% 9%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 43% 41% 16%
New York Times/Kaiser Family[90] April 8–15, 2014 900 ± ? 42% 40% 5% 14%
Magellan Strategies[91] April 14–15, 2014 804 ± 3.46% 43% 43% 8% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[92] May 7–8, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 45% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling[93] May 9–11, 2014 877 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 11% 15%
41% 41% 18%
Civitas Institute[94] May 20–22, 2014 600 ± 4% 36% 39% 8% 15%
41% 46% 12%
Magellan Strategies[95] June 5–8, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 47% 46% 7%
Public Policy Polling[96] June 12–15, 2014 1,076 ± 3% 39% 34% 11% 16%
42% 38% 20%
Civitas Institute[97] June 18–19 & 22, 2014 600 ± 4% 42% 36% 9% 12%
47% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling[98] July 17–20, 2014 1,062 ± 3% 41% 34% 8% 16%
42% 39% 19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[99] July 5–24, 2014 2,678 ± 3.5% 44% 45% 2% 7%
Gravis Marketing[100] July 22–27, 2014 1,380 ± 3% 44% 41% 15%
Civitas Institute[101] July 28–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7% 12%
43% 45% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[102] August 5–6, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 45% 6% 9%
Public Policy Polling[103] August 14–17, 2014 856 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 8% 13%
43% 42% 14%
Suffolk University[104] August 16–19, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45.4% 43% 5.2% 6.4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[105] August 18 – September 2, 2014 2,059 ± 3% 42% 43% 5% 0% 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[106] September 3–6, 2014 802 ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
Elon University[107] September 5–9, 2014 629 LV ± 3.91% 44.9% 40.8% 9.1% 5.2%
983 RV ± 3.13% 42.7% 36.8% 10.7% 9.8%
American Insights[108] September 5–10, 2014 459 ± 4.6% 46% 36% 6% 13%
Rasmussen Reports[109] September 8–10, 2014 1,000 ± 4% 45% 39% 6% 9%
Civitas Institute[110] September 9–10, 2014 490 ± 4.5% 46% 43% 5% 6%
47% 46% 7%
Public Policy Polling[111] September 11–14, 2014 1,266 ± 2.8% 44% 40% 5% 11%
46% 42% 12%
Fox News[112] September 14–16, 2014 605 ± 4% 41% 36% 6% 13%
High Point University[113] September 13–18, 2014 410 ± 5% 42% 40% 6% 12%
Global Strategy Group[114] September 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4.9% 45% 41% 5% 9%
Gravis Marketing[115] September 22–23, 2014 860 ± 3% 46% 42% 12%
CNN/ORC[116] September 22–25, 2014 595 LV ± 4% 46% 43% 7% 4%
860 ± 3.5% 46% 39% 9% 6%
Civitas[117] September 25, 27–28, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 41% 4% 1% 8%
860 ± 3.5% 50% 43% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[118] September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,002 ± 3% 46% 45% 2% 1% 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[119] September 25 – October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 2.09% 45% 41% 14%
NBC News/Marist[120] September 27 – October 1, 2014 665 LV ± 3.8% 44% 40% 7% <1% 9%
1,132 RV ± 2.9% 42% 37% 8% 1% 12%
Morey Group[121] October 1–6, 2014 956 ± 3.2% 40.1% 37.8% 2% 20.2%
Suffolk University[122] October 4–7, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 46.8% 45.4% 4.4% 3.4%
Rasmussen Reports[123] October 6–7, 2014 970 ± 3% 48% 46% 2% 4%
High Point University[124] September 30 – October 2 and October 4–9, 2014 584 ± 4.1% 39.5% 40.4% 7% 13%
SurveyUSA[125] October 10–12, 2014 554 ± 4.2% 44% 41% 7% 8%
45% 46% 9%
Civitas Institute[126] October 15–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 42% 6% 11%
44% 44% 12%
Gravis Marketing[127] October 16–18, 2014 1,022 ± 3% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling[128] October 16–18, 2014 780 ± 3.5% 46% 43% 5% 7%
47% 44% 8%
SurveyUSA[129] October 16–20, 2014 568 ± 4.2% 46% 43% 6% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[118] October 16–23, 2014 1,910 ± 4% 44% 41% 2% 0% 13%
NBC News/Marist[130] October 19–23, 2014 756 LV ± 3.6% 43% 43% 7% <1% 6%
1,070 RV ± 3% 42% 40% 8% 1% 9%
SurveyUSA[131] October 21–25, 2014 802 ± 4% 44% 44% 5% 3% 5%
Elon University[132] October 21–25, 2014 687 LV ± 3.74% 44.7% 40.7% 6.3% 6.6%
996 RV ± 3.11% 44.8% 37.5% 7.7% 8.5%
Monmouth University[133] October 23–26, 2014 432 ± 4.7% 48% 46% 1% 4%
Vox Populi[134] October 26–27, 2014 615 ± 3.95% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling[135] October 28–29, 2014 657 ± ? 47% 46% 4% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[123] October 28–29, 2014 982 ± 3% 47% 46% 3% 3%
CNN/ORC[136] October 27–30, 2014 559 LV ± 4% 48% 46% 4% 2%
896 RV ± 3.5% 47% 41% 8% 4%
Fox News[137] October 28–30, 2014 909 ± 3% 43% 42% 4% 1% 9%
Harper Polling[138] October 28–30, 2014 511 ± 4.34% 44% 46% 6% 4%
45% 48% 7%
Civitas Institute[139] October 29–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 41% 6% 10%
45% 44% 11%
Gravis Marketing[140] October 29–30, 2014 1,006 ± 3% 46% 47% 8%
YouGov[141] October 25–31, 2014 1,727 ± 3% 44% 41% 3% 12%
Public Policy Polling[142] October 30–31, 2014 738 ± ? 46% 45% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling[143] November 1–3, 2014 1,333 ± 2.7% 46% 44% 5% 6%
48% 46% 6%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Ted
Alexander (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 38% 45% 17%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 45% 12%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 44% 46% 10%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Phil
Berger (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 47% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 38% 13%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 51% 37% 12%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 44% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 53% 36% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Cherie K.
Berry (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 50% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 46% 41% 13%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Alex
Bradshaw (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 41% 42% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Greg
Brannon (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 35% 17%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 51% 36% 13%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 49% 36% 15%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 49% 40% 11%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 44% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 52% 36% 12%
Public Policy Polling[85] October 4–6, 2013 746 ± ?% 46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling[65] November 8–11, 2013 701 ± 4% 43% 44% 14%
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 43% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 41% 43% 16%
Rasmussen Reports[87] January 22–23, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 4% 14%
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 40% 43% 17%
American Insights[54] February 11–15, 2014 611 ± 4% 38% 36% 26%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 43% 14%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 45% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 40% 42% 18%
New York Times/Kaiser Family[90] April 8–15, 2014 900 ± ? 41% 39% 4% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
James P.
Cain (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 41% 11%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 36% 15%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 50% 37% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Renee
Ellmers (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 45% 39% 19%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 49% 36% 15%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 48% 40% 12%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 39% 15%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 36% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Terry
Embler (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 33% 20%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 52% 33% 15%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 47% 37% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Bill
Flynn (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 43% 45% 12%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 42% 44% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Dan
Forest (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 50% 40% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Virginia
Foxx (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 49% 37% 14%
Public Policy Polling[70] April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% 10%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 39% 15%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 39% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Heather
Grant (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 36% 15%
Public Policy Polling[65] November 8–11, 2013 701 ± 4% 43% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 39% 41% 20%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 42% 15%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 44% 46% 10%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 39% 43% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Mark
Harris (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[71] May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 46% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 35% 15%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 50% 36% 14%
Public Policy Polling[85] October 4–6, 2013 746 ± ?% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling[65] November 8–11, 2013 701 ± 4% 43% 41% 16%
Public Policy Polling[66] December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[67] January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 41% 43% 16%
Harper Polling[86] January 20–21, 2014 778 ± 3.51% 44% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 40% 42% 18%
American Insights[54] February 11–15, 2014 611 ± 4% 39% 35% 26%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 43% 14%
SurveyUSA[57] March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 43% 47% 10%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 40% 44% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
George
Holding (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 45% 37% 18%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 36% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Edward
Kryn (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53] February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 40% 40% 20%
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 43% 41% 16%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 40% 41% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Patrick
McHenry (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 48% 40% 12%
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 45% 39% 16%
Public Policy Polling[68] February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 45% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling[69] March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 49% 39% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Sue
Myrick (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[72] December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 45% 44% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Robert
Pittenger (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 46% 38% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Jim
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[89] March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling[58] April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 41% 41% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Lynn
Wheeler (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61] June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 45% 36% 19%
Public Policy Polling[62] July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 34% 17%
Public Policy Polling[63] August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 36% 17%
Public Policy Polling[64] September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 48% 35% 17%

Results

2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina[144]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thom Tillis 1,423,259 48.82% +4.64%
Democratic Kay Hagan (incumbent) 1,377,651 47.26% −5.39%
Libertarian Sean Haugh 109,100 3.74% +0.57%
Write-in 5,271 0.18% +0.14%
Total votes 2,915,281 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ^ "Republicans seize Senate, gaining full control of Congress". November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 5, 2014.
  2. ^ "CNN: Sen. Kay Hagan to run again in 2014". Archived from the original on November 30, 2012. Retrieved November 28, 2012.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Miller, Joshua (November 13, 2012). "Hagan Targeted by GOP, Ready for 2014 N.C. Race". Roll Call. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  4. ^ a b "NC State Board of Elections: Candidate filing list" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 26, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2014.
  5. ^ News & Observer: 2 long-shot Democrats challenge Kay Hagan
  6. ^ News & Observer: Kay Hagan gets a challenger
  7. ^ "Fayetteville Observer". Archived from the original on September 27, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2013.
  8. ^ SenatorWestphal.com Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine - on his site, Westphal wrote: "I could not raise the $1470 filing fee for the Senate race in North Carolina, therefore, I am heading to Fort Myers on February 28th. It is my intention to file for the House of Representatives in the 11th District, which comprises of the Fort Myers area."
  9. ^ a b c NC State Board of Elections website
  10. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (May 6, 2014). "North Carolina GOP Eyes 2nd Ever US Senate Primary Runoff". Smart Politics.
  11. ^ Shelby Star
  12. ^ "Dr. Greg Brannon steps up to challenge Hagan in 2014". Archived from the original on February 6, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2013.
  13. ^ Heather Grant to run for U.S. Senate seat - journalpatriot: News
  14. ^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Conservative Preacher Joins North Carolina Senate Primary". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 15, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013.
  15. ^ [1] Archived February 1, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  16. ^ WBTV/Associated Press
  17. ^ WRAL/AP: Tillis says he'll run for US Senate[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ a b c d Mimms, Sarah (February 13, 2013). "N.C. Labor Commissioner Considering Run Against Hagan". National Journal. Archived from the original on February 21, 2013. Retrieved February 14, 2013.
  19. ^ "Terry Embler - As many if not most have noticed, I have..." Facebook. May 14, 2013. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  20. ^ Fox 8
  21. ^ John Frank (January 30, 2014). "Republican Bill Flynn takes early exit from US Senate race". News Observer. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
  22. ^ News & Observer Under the Dome: Phil Berger won't run for US Senate
  23. ^ Frank, John (May 29, 2013). "Cherie Berry says she won't run for U.S. Senate". The News & Observer. Retrieved May 29, 2013.
  24. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (September 18, 2013). "Brunstetter considering US Senate bid". WRAL-TV. Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  25. ^ News & Observer Under the Dome: Pete Brunstetter says he won't seek US Senate seat
  26. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 17, 2013). "Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
  27. ^ "House Republican Won't Run for Senate #NCSEN | At the Races". Archived from the original on December 22, 2015. Retrieved July 30, 2013.
  28. ^ Morrill, Jim (March 13, 2013). "If nominated, he will not run ..." Campaign Tracker. Retrieved March 14, 2013.
  29. ^ Cahn, Emily (August 20, 2013). "Virginia Foxx Says No to Senate Bid in North Carolina". Roll Call. Archived from the original on August 20, 2013. Retrieved August 20, 2013.
  30. ^ Cahn, Emily (April 11, 2013). "North Carolina: McHenry Won't Run Against Hagan". Roll Call. Archived from the original on April 13, 2013. Retrieved April 11, 2013.
  31. ^ Morrill, Jim (April 26, 2013). "Table Talk". Charlotte Business Journal. Retrieved May 18, 2013.
  32. ^ "Terry Embler - As I am no longer in the running for the office, I..." Facebook. August 26, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
  33. ^ Frank, John (March 6, 2014). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee endorses Greg Brannon in contested Senate primary". News and Observer. Retrieved March 6, 2014.
  34. ^ Liberty Circle: Congressman Thomas Massie Endorses Greg Brannon for U.S. Senate
  35. ^ "Rand Paul Endorses in North Carolina Primary". Roll Call. October 16, 2013. Archived from the original on October 17, 2013. Retrieved October 17, 2013.
  36. ^ "Ron Paul 2014 Endorsements | LibertyPAC". Archived from the original on April 1, 2015. Retrieved March 19, 2014.
  37. ^ "News & Observer: Coulter endorses Brannon, bashes Tillis". Archived from the original on March 10, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2013.
  38. ^ Winston-Salem Journal
  39. ^ "Mark Levin endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate". The Right Scoop. May 1, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  40. ^ FreedomWorks backs Brannon in N.C. - Katie Glueck - POLITICO.com
  41. ^ "Gun Owners of America Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate". Archived from the original on May 23, 2014. Retrieved March 19, 2014.
  42. ^ "NAGR PAC Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate". Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2013.
  43. ^ News & Observer Morning Memo (Nov. 25, 2013)
  44. ^ a b c News & Observer
  45. ^ News & Observer
  46. ^ "Charlotte Observer". Archived from the original on January 18, 2015. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  47. ^ N&R endorses Jim Snyder in Republican US Senate primary
  48. ^ a b Romney endorses Tillis in North Carolina | TheHill
  49. ^ http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate Archived October 17, 2015, at the Wayback Machine http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate/
  50. ^ "Governor Pat McCrory endorses Thom Tillis in Senate race". Archived from the original on May 1, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2020.
  51. ^ Romney endorses Tillis | Under the Dome Blog | NewsObserver.com
  52. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp "Legislative Endorsements Roll In for Thom Tillis | Thom Tillis". Archived from the original on October 10, 2014. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
  53. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ a b c d American Insights
  55. ^ SurveyUSA
  56. ^ SurveyUSA
  57. ^ a b c d e f SurveyUSA
  58. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Public Policy Polling
  59. ^ SurveyUSA
  60. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  62. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  63. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  65. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  66. ^ a b c d e f Public Policy Polling
  67. ^ a b c d e f Public Policy Polling
  68. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Public Policy Polling
  69. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Public Policy Polling
  70. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  71. ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
  72. ^ a b c d e f g Public Policy Polling
  73. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  74. ^ "Charlotte Observer: Controversial former candidate making Senate bid". Archived from the original on February 28, 2014. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  75. ^ "Charlotte Observer". Archived from the original on February 28, 2014. Retrieved February 27, 2014.
  76. ^ a b c "State Board of Elections: CERTIFIED UNAFFILIATED AND WRITE-IN CANDIDATES" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 11, 2014. Retrieved July 29, 2014.
  77. ^ "Charlotte Observer: Indian Trail councilman tenders resignation – in Klingon". Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
  78. ^ "Outside spending, 'dark' money fuel N.C. Senate race". The Charlotte Observer. July 4, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2014.
  79. ^ "2014 Outside Spending, by Race". OpenSecrets. November 10, 2014. Archived from the original on April 26, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
  80. ^ News & Observer: What NC voters might learn from final Hagan-Tillis debates
  81. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  82. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  83. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  84. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  85. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  86. ^ a b Harper Polling
  87. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  88. ^ Hickman Analytics
  89. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  90. ^ a b New York Times/Kaiser Family
  91. ^ Magellan Strategies
  92. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  93. ^ Public Policy Polling
  94. ^ Civitas Institute
  95. ^ Magellan Strategies
  96. ^ Public Policy Polling
  97. ^ Civitas Institute
  98. ^ Public Policy Polling
  99. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  100. ^ Gravis Marketing
  101. ^ Civitas Institute
  102. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  103. ^ Public Policy Polling
  104. ^ Suffolk University Archived August 21, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  105. ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  106. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang
  107. ^ Elon University
  108. ^ American Insights
  109. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  110. ^ Civitas Institute
  111. ^ Public Policy Polling
  112. ^ Fox News
  113. ^ High Point University
  114. ^ Global Strategy Group
  115. ^ Gravis Marketing
  116. ^ CNN/ORC
  117. ^ Civitas
  118. ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  119. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner [permanent dead link]
  120. ^ NBC News/Marist
  121. ^ Morey Group Archived October 13, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  122. ^ Suffolk University Archived October 13, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  123. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  124. ^ High Point University
  125. ^ SurveyUSA Archived October 17, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  126. ^ Civitas Institute
  127. ^ Gravis Marketing
  128. ^ Public Policy Polling
  129. ^ SurveyUSA
  130. ^ NBC News/Marist
  131. ^ SurveyUSA
  132. ^ Elon University Archived October 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  133. ^ Monmouth University
  134. ^ Vox Populi
  135. ^ Public Policy Polling
  136. ^ CNN/ORC
  137. ^ Fox News
  138. ^ Harper Polling Archived November 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  139. ^ Civitas Institute
  140. ^ Gravis Marketing
  141. ^ YouGov
  142. ^ Public Policy Polling
  143. ^ Public Policy Polling
  144. ^ "NC State Board of Elections website". Archived from the original on December 30, 2014. Retrieved February 16, 2015.