2014 Arizona gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2014 United States gubernatorial elections.

2014 Arizona gubernatorial election

November 4, 2014
Turnout	47.52% 8.13pp [1]
Nominee Doug Ducey Fred DuVal Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 805,062 626,921 Percentage 53.44% 41.62%
County results Congressional district results Ducey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% DuVal:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election Jan Brewer Republican Elected Governor Doug Ducey Republican

The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second consecutive full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote. This election marked the first time since 1994 that no female gubernatorial candidate was on the ballot and that a man was elected governor of Arizona. This was the first open seat gubernatorial election in the state since 2002.

Background

Candidates for governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett.

Democratic governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.^[2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,^[3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".^[4]

Republican primary

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty"^[5][6][7][8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.^[9]

Candidates

Declared

• Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona^[10]
• Doug Ducey, State Treasurer of Arizona^[11][12]
• Christine Jones, former executive vice president, General Counsel and corporate secretary for Go Daddy^[13]
• Frank Riggs, former U.S. representative from California and candidate for the U.S. Senate from California in 1998^[14]
• Scott Smith, Mayor of Mesa^[15]
• Andrew Thomas, former county attorney of Maricopa County, disbarred lawyer, and candidate for Arizona Attorney General in 2010^[16]

Withdrew

• Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe (ran for state treasurer and lost)^[17]
• Al Melvin, state senator^[18][19]
• John Molina, OB/GYN and former CEO of Phoenix Indian Medical Center^[20][21]

Declined

• Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County^[22][23]
• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor^[4]
• Brenda Burns, Corporation Commissioner^[24]
• Wil Cardon, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)^[25]
• Tom Horne, Attorney General of Arizona (ran for re-election and lost)^[26][27][28]
• Martha McSally, retired United States Air Force colonel and nominee for Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2012 (ran for AZ-02 and won)^[29][30]
• Steve Pierce, state senator^[26]
• Steven Seagal, actor and reserve deputy sheriff^[31][32]

Endorsements

Doug Ducey

Individuals

• Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County^[33]
• Steve Chucri, Maricopa County Supervisor and president/CEO of the Arizona Restaurant Association^[34]
• Jerry Colangelo, businessman and former owner of the Phoenix Suns and Arizona Diamondbacks^[35]
• Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Councilman^[36]
• Trent Franks, U.S. representative^[36]
• Barry Goldwater, Jr., former U.S. representative^[37]
• Hugh Hewitt, talk radio host^[38]
• Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator^[12]
• Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney^[12]
• John Shadegg, former U.S. representative^[12]
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona^[39]

Organizations

• Arizona Free Enterprise Club^[40]
• Arizona Right to Life^[41]

Frank Riggs

Individuals

• Russell Pearce, former president of the Arizona Senate^[42]
• Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator and candidate for president in 2012^[43]

Organizations

• Arizonans Against Common Core^[44]

Scott Smith

Individuals

• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor^[45]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ken Bennett	Doug Ducey	Christine Jones	Al Melvin	John Molina	Frank Riggs	Scott Smith	Andrew Thomas	Undecided
Magellan Strategies[46]	August 17–21, 2014	1,281	± 2.74%	12%	32%	18%	—	—	2%	21%	8%	7%
Harper Polling[47]	August 19–20, 2014	812	± 3.44%	14%	32%	16%	—	—	2%	19%	7%	10%
Remington[48]	August 17–19, 2014	502	± 4.37%	10%	33%	18%	—	—	1%	22%	11%	5%
Magellan Strategies[49]	August 15–18, 2014	1,322	± ?	12%	31%	17%	—	—	3%	22%	8%	7%
Magellan Strategies[50]	August 12–15, 2014	1,300	± ?	10%	31%	16%	—	—	3%	23%	7%	10%
Magellan Strategies[51]	August 5–7, 2014	1,289	± 2.73%	11%	29%	13%	—	—	4%	22%	9%	12%
Magellan Strategies[52]	July 28–31, 2014	1,644	± ?	12%	23%	13%	—	—	5%	21%	10%	16%
Undisclosed[53]	Late July 2014	?	± ?	10%	23%	20%	—	—	2%	15%	9%	21%
Harper Polling[54]	July 16–17, 2014	885	± 3.29%	12%	23%	21%	—	—	1%	13%	7%	22%
Behavior Research Center[55]	July 10–17, 2014	459	± 4.7%	10%	13%	17%	—	—	2%	8%	0%	50%
Gravis Marketing[56]	July 14, 2014	691	± 4%	7%	28%	19%	—	—	1%	14%	8%	24%
Highground[57]	July 10–12, 2014	400	± 4.9%	3.5%	17.3%	15.3%	—	—	1.5%	9.8%	3%	49.8%
Magellan Strategies[58]	July 9–10, 2014	593	± 4.02%	11%	26%	22%	—	—	2%	14%	6%	19%
Harper Polling[59]	June 25–26, 2014	791	± 3.48%	12%	33%	15%	—	—	2%	14%	3%	22%
McLaughlin & Associates[60]	June 10, 2014	400	± 3.48%	8%	22.8%	6.2%	—	—	—	6.5%	—	56.5%
Magellan Strategies[61]	June 3–4, 2014	630	± 3.9%	12%	28%	12%	2%	—	2%	16%	5%	23%
Magellan Strategies[62]	May 13–14, 2014	760	± 3.6%	12.7%	27.3%	11.9%	1.3%	0.2%	0.7%	11.5%	5.6%	28.8%
Undisclosed[63]	April 29, 2014	1,367	± 3.5%	7%	4%	10%	—	—	—	9%	5%	65%
Magellan Strategies[64]	April 8–9, 2014	?	± ?	15%	9%	14%	—	—	1%	6%	6%	45%
Public Policy Polling[65]	Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014	403	± 4.9%	20%	6%	16%	1%	1%	1%	12%	9%	34%
Behavior Research Center[66]	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	6%	2%	8%	1%	—	—	7%	7%	69%
Susquehanna[67]	Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013	245	± ?	20%	8%	4%	2%	—	—	6%	4%	56%

Results

Results by county:

  Ducey – 50–60%

  Ducey – 40–50%

  Ducey – 30–40%

  Jones – 30–40%

Republican primary results^[68]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Doug Ducey	200,607	37
	Republican	Scott Smith	119,107	22
	Republican	Christine Jones	89,922	17
	Republican	Ken Bennett	62,010	11
	Republican	Andrew Thomas	43,822	8
	Republican	Frank Riggs	24,168	5
	Republican	Write-in	1,804	nil
Total votes			541,440	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Fred DuVal, former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents^[69]

Withdrew

• Ronald Cavanaugh, Libertarian candidate for governor in 2010^[21][70]

Declined

• Chad Campbell, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives^[71]
• Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^[72]
• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe^[73][74]
• Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General, candidate for governor in 1994 and nominee for governor in 1990 and 2010 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)^[75][76]
• Marco A. López Jr., former chief of staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales^[77]
• Janet Napolitano, president of the University of California, former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona^[78]
• Felecia Rotellini, attorney and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2010 (ran for Attorney General and lost)^[79]
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix^[26][80]

Endorsements

Fred DuVal

• Bruce Babbitt, former governor of Arizona and former United States Secretary of the Interior^[81]
• Raúl Héctor Castro, former governor of Arizona and former United States Ambassador to El Salvador, Bolivia and Argentina^[81]
• Sam Coppersmith, former U.S. representative and former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party^[82]
• Karan English, former U.S. representative^[82]
• Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative^[83]
• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe^[84]
• Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix^[84]
• Raúl Grijalva, U.S. representative^[85]
• Mark Kelly, astronaut^[83]
• Harry Mitchell, former U.S. representative, former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and former mayor of Tempe^[82]
• Rose Mofford, former governor of Arizona^[81]
• Ed Pastor, U.S. representative^[86]
• Jim Pederson, businessman, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006^[87]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron Cavanaugh	Fred DuVal	Undecided
Behavior Research Center[66]	January 16–26, 2014	?	± ?	12%	18%	72%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chad Campbell	Fred DuVal	Undecided
Myers Research[88]	May 22–June 13, 2012	?	± ?	31%	18%	51%

Results

Democratic primary results^[68]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Fred DuVal	271,276	97
	Democratic	Write-in	8,578	3
Total votes			279,854	100

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

• Brian Bailey (independent write-in candidate), Arizona Army National Guardsman^[89][90]
• Cary Dolego (independent), write-in candidate for governor in 2010^[89][90]
• Barry Hess (Libertarian Party), perennial candidate^[21]
• Joseph James "J." Johnson (unaffiliated write-in candidate), food account manager and brother of Eddie Johnson^[90][91]
• John Lewis Mealer (Americans Elect), candidate for the Americans Elect nomination for president in 2012^[21]
• Alice Novoa (Republican write-in candidate)^[89][90]
• Diana-Elizabeth Ramseys Rasmussen Kennedy (Independent write-in candidate)^[89][90]
• Curtis Woolsey (unaffiliated write-in candidate)^[89][90]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[68]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	3,979	75
	Libertarian	Write-in	1,345	25
Total votes			5,324	100

Americans Elect primary results^[68]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Americans Elect	John Lewis Mealer	722	95
	Americans Elect	Write-in	38	5
Total votes			760	100

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, September 10, 2014 – C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, September 29, 2014 – C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[92]	Lean R	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93]	Likely R	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[94]	Lean R	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[95]	Lean R	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[96]	October 16–23, 2014	2,621	± 4%	50%	40%	1%	9%
The Polling Company[97]	October 20–22, 2014	601	± 4%	42%	35%	7%[other 1]	15%
Rasmussen Reports[98]	October 14–16, 2014	1,056	± 3%	47%	42%	3%	7%
Tarrance Group[99]	October 13–16, 2014	500	± 4.5%	43%	36%	5%[other 1]	16%
McLaughlin & Associates[100]	October 12–14, 2014	500	± 4.5%	37%	36%	5%[other 2]	22%
Adrian Gray Consulting[101]	October 8–9, 2014	600	± 4%	43%	35%	8%[other 3]	14%
Moore Information[102]	October 7–8, 2014	400	± ≈4.9%	36%	39%	4%[other 4]	21%
The Polling Company[103]	October 6–8, 2014	600	± 4%	46%	37%	5%[other 1]	11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[104]	September 20–October 1, 2014	2,808	± 3%	50%	39%	2%	9%
Keating Research[105]	September 17–19, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	39%	7%[other 1]	13%
Tarrance Group[106]	September 15–17, 2014	505	± 4.5%	44%	38%	7%[other 5]	11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[107]	August 18–September 2, 2014	3,289	± 3%	39%	38%	15%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[98]	August 27–28, 2014	850	± 3%	40%	40%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling[108]	August 24–25, 2014	588	± 4%	35%	35%	12%[other 1]	18%
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	36%	—	29%
Undisclosed[63]	February 2014	500	± ?	32%	32%	6%[other 1]	30%
Behavior Research Center[66]	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	21%	23%	—	56%
Susquehanna[67]	November 27–December 4, 2013	600	± 4%	36%	33%	—	31%

1. Barry Hess (L)
2. Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
3. Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
4. Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
5. Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%

Hypothetical polling

With Bennett

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ken Bennett (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	37%	33%	—	30%
Behavior Research Center[66]	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	26%	22%	—	52%
Susquehanna[67]	November 27–December 4, 2013	600	± 4%	38%	33%	—	28%

With Jones

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Christine Jones (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[109]	July 5–24, 2014	3,778	± ?	45%	34%	13%	7%
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	33%	37%	—	30%

With Melvin

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Al Melvin (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	37%	—	31%

With Molina

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Molina (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	35%	—	33%

With Riggs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Frank Riggs (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	36%	—	31%

With Smith

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Scott Smith (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	39%	33%	—	28%
Behavior Research Center[66]	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	20%	23%	—	57%

With Thomas

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Andrew Thomas (R)	Fred DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65]	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	40%	—	25%

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014^[110]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Doug Ducey	805,062	53.4	−0.9
	Democratic	Fred DuVal	626,921	41.6	−0.8
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	57,337	3.8	+1.6
	Americans Elect	John Lewis Mealer	15,432	1.0	N/A
	None	J. Johnson (write-in)	1,520	0.1	N/A
	Independent	Brian Bailey (write-in)	50	nil	N/A
	Republican	Alice Novoa (write-in)	43	nil	N/A
	Independent	Cary Dolego (write-in)	29	nil	N/A
	None	Curtis Woolsey (write-in)	15	nil	N/A
	Independent	Diane-Elizabeth R.R. Kennedy (write-in)	7	nil	N/A
Total votes			1,506,416	100	N/A
	Republican hold

By county

By county

County[111] Doug Ducey Republican Fred DuVal Democratic Barry Hess Libertarian John L. Mealer Americans Elect Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % # % Apache 5,871 28.52 13,562 65.88 684 3.32 458 2.22 9 0.04 -7,691 -37.36 20,584 Cochise 21,662 59.41 12,709 34.85 1,611 4.41 457 1.25 22 0.06 8,953 24.56 36,461 Coconino 14,528 39.64 20,212 55.15 1,650 4.50 496 1.35 53 0.01 -5,684 -15.51 36,645 Gila 9,610 60.67 5,253 33.16 769 5.34 202 1.27 5 0.03 4,357 27.51 15,839 Graham 4,985 68.60 1,919 26.41 269 3.70 90 1.23 3 0.04 3,066 42.19 7,266 Greenlee 995 51.82 792 41.25 104 5.41 29 1.51 1 0.05 203 10.57 1,920 La Paz 2,388 68.54 846 24.28 195 5.59 53 1.52 2 0.05 1,542 44.26 3,484 Maricopa 469,200 54.69 346,879 40.43 32,466 3.78 8,167 0.95 1,066 0.01 122,321 14.26 857,778 Mohave 33,150 71.02 10,662 22.84 2,242 4.80 604 1.29 17 0.03 22,488 48.18 46,675 Navajo 13,569 49.61 12,128 44.34 1080 3.94 553 2.02 19 0.06 1,441 5.27 27,349 Pima 122,966 45.43 136,302 50.35 8,899 3.28 2,312 0.85 191 0.07 -13,336 -4.92 270,670 Pinal 41,313 57.80 26,131 36.56 2,966 4.14 832 1.16 231 0.32 15,182 21.24 71,473 Santa Cruz 3,175 34.05 5,819 62.40 239 2.56 90 0.96 1 0.01 -2,644 -28.35 9,324 Yavapai 46,806 63.11 23,210 31.29 3,287 4.43 820 1.10 31 0.04 23,596 31.82 74,154 Yuma 14,844 56.01 10,497 39.61 876 3.30 269 1.01 13 0.04 4,347 16.40 26,499 Totals 805,062 53.44 626,921 41.61 57,337 3.80 15,432 1.02 1,664 0.11 178,141 11.83 1,506,416

By congressional district

Ducey won 6 of 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[112]

District	DuVal	Ducey	Representative
1st	46.0%	48.87%	Ann Kirkpatrick
2nd	46.95%	48.73%	Martha McSally
3rd	56.31%	38.77%	Raúl Grijalva
4th	27.43%	66.84%	Paul Gosar
5th	32.64%	62.83%	Matt Salmon
6th	37.56%	58.27%	David Schweikert
7th	65.18%	29.29%	Ruben Gallego
8th	33.64%	61.2%	Trent Franks
9th	49.06%	46.3%	Kyrsten Sinema

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External links

• Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Doug Ducey for Governor (Archived)
• Fred DuVal for Governor (Archived)