PROFILBARU.COM

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Taraba State
Registered	2,022,374
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; TBD;

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Taraba State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Taraba State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the Middle Belt that has faced challenges in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the region. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.^[2]

Politically, the 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state by 7% but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and House of Representatives seats. Statewise, Ishaku won re-election by a wide margin and the PDP won a majority in the House of Assembly.

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

BantuPage	December 2022	N/A	9%	22%	1%	30%	–	28%	7%	1%
Nextier (Taraba crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	25.5%	21.6%	–	51.0%	–	2.0%	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Taraba crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	13%	54%	4%	28%	–	1%	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects^[a]^[3]	Lean Abubakar		24 February 2023
Dataphyte^[b]^[4]
	Tinubu:	27.52%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	27.37%
	Abubakar:	33.77%
	Others:	16.35%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence^[c]^[5]	Obi		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence^[d]^[6]	Abubakar		15 December 2022
ThisDay^[e]^[7]
	Tinubu:	10%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	20%
	Kwankwaso:	20%
	Abubakar:	40%
	Others/Undecided:	10%
The Nation^[f]^[8]^[9]	Abubakar		12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Taraba State
Party		Candidate	%
	A	Christopher Imumolen
	AA	Hamza al-Mustapha
	ADP	Yabagi Sani
	APP	Osita Nnadi
	AAC	Omoyele Sowore
	ADC	Dumebi Kachikwu
	APC	Bola Tinubu
	APGA	Peter Umeadi
	APM	Princess Chichi Ojei
	BP	Sunday Adenuga
	LP	Peter Obi
	NRM	Felix Johnson Osakwe
	New Nigeria Peoples Party	Rabiu Kwankwaso
	PRP	Kola Abiola
	PDP	Atiku Abubakar
	SDP	Adewole Adebayo
	YPP	Malik Ado-Ibrahim
	ZLP	Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes			100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Taraba Central Senatorial District^[g]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Taraba North Senatorial District^[h]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Taraba South Senatorial District^[i]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Bali/Gassol Federal Constituency^[j]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency^[k]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Karim Lamido/Lau/Ardo-Kola Federal Constituency^[l]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Sardauna/Gashaka/Kurmi Federal Constituency^[m]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Takum/Donga/Ussa Federal Constituency^[n]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Wukari/Ibi Federal Constituency^[o]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Ardo Kola	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bali	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Donga	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Gashaka	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Gassol	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ibi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Jalingo	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Karim Lamido	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kurmi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Lau	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Sardauna	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Takum	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ussa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Wukari	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Yorro	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Zing	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes

^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
^ Comprising the local government areas of Bali, Gashaka, Gassol, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Jalingo, Karim Lamido, Lau, Yorro, and Zing.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Ibi, Takum, Ussa, and Wukari.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Bali and Gassol Gassol.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Jalingo, Yorro, and Zing.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Karim Lamido, and Lau.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Gashaka, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Takum, and Ussa.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibi and Wukari.

References

^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
^ Ojewale, Oluwole (7 July 2021). "What's driving violence in Nigeria's north central region". The Conversation. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.