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2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State
Registered	1,695,927
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; TBD;

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity.^[2]^[3] The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

BantuPage	January 2023	N/A	48%	14%	0%	8%	–	11%	12%	8%
Nextier (Kwara crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	35.9%	25.6%	–	30.8%	2.6%	5.1%	–	–
Stears	January 2023	500	26%	11%	2%	6%	–	51%	–	6%
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kwara crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	29%	11%	1%	13%	1%	46%	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects^[a]^[4]	Likely Tinubu		24 February 2023
Dataphyte^[b]^[5]
	Tinubu:	42.54%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	17.66%
	Abubakar:	25.21%
	Others:	14.59%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence^[c]^[6]	Tinubu		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence^[d]^[7]	Too close to call		15 December 2022
ThisDay^[e]^[8]
	Tinubu:	35%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	10%
	Kwankwaso:	10%
	Abubakar:	40%
	Others/Undecided:	5%
The Nation^[f]^[9]^[10]	Tinubu		12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State
Party		Candidate	%
	A	Christopher Imumolen
	AA	Hamza al-Mustapha
	ADP	Yabagi Sani
	APP	Osita Nnadi
	AAC	Omoyele Sowore
	ADC	Dumebi Kachikwu
	APC	Bola Tinubu
	APGA	Peter Umeadi
	APM	Princess Chichi Ojei
	BP	Sunday Adenuga
	LP	Peter Obi
	NRM	Felix Johnson Osakwe
	New Nigeria Peoples Party	Rabiu Kwankwaso
	PRP	Kola Abiola
	PDP	Atiku Abubakar
	SDP	Adewole Adebayo
	YPP	Malik Ado-Ibrahim
	ZLP	Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes			100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Kwara Central Senatorial District^[g]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kwara North Senatorial District^[h]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kwara South Senatorial District^[i]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Asa/Ilorin West Federal Constituency^[j]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency^[k]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Edu/Moro/Pategi Federal Constituency^[l]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero Federal Constituency^[m]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Ilorin East/Ilorin South Federal Constituency^[n]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun Federal Constituency^[o]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Asa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Baruten	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Edu	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ekiti	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ifelodun	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ilorin East	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ilorin South	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ilorin West	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Irepodun	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Isin	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kaiama	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Moro	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Offa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Oke Ero	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Oyun	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Pategi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes

^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa, Ilorin East, Ilorin South, and Ilorin West.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten, Edu, Pategi, Kaiama, and Moro.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Oke Ero, Offa, Ifelodun, Irepodun, Isin, and Oyun.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa and Ilorin West.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten and Kaiama.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Edu, Moro, and Pategi.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Irepodun, Isin, and Oke Ero.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ilorin East and Ilorin South.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ifelodun, Offa, and Oyun.

References

^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
^ Hammad, Abdulrasheed (May 2022). "How charcoal, indiscriminate logging contribute to deforestation in Kwara". International Centre for Investigative Reporting. Retrieved 22 May 2022.
^ "It's coming South: Rising violence in Kwara". SBM Intelligence. 8 February 2022. Retrieved 18 April 2022.
^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.