Under Article 49 of Lebanese constitution, in the first round of a vote session, a qualified majority of two-thirds of the members of the Lebanese Parliament is required to elect the President. If no candidate reaches that threshold, further rounds of election are held where an absolute majority of the members legally constituting the parliament is sufficient to elect the president. So far, eleven sessions have taken place, with the respective required thresholds not being met at any round. In the most recent session, Jihad Azour fell 5 votes short of the majority that would have been required in the next round, which was not held. The next session is set to take place on 9 January 2025.[2]
By convention, the presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian. The incumbent president is not eligible for re-election until six years have lapsed since the expiration of his mandate.[4]
Large-scale anti-government demonstrations ignited in the country from 17 October. Initially triggered in response to a rise in gas and tobacco prices as well as a new tax on messaging applications,[5] the demonstrations quickly turned into a revolution against the stagnation of the economy, unemployment, Lebanon's sectarian and hereditary political system, corruption and the government's inability to provide essential services such as water, electricity and sanitation,[6] Saad Hariri ended up resigning on 29 October 2019.[7]
Hassan Diab was appointed prime minister by President Michel Aoun on 19 December 2019.[8] His government obtained the confidence of parliament by 69 votes in its favour.[9]
However, the country's economic situation continued to deteriorate. The government was over 95 billion dollars in debt by the end of 2020,[10] the Lebanese pound lost 70% of its value in six months,[11] and 35% of the active population was unemployed.[12] Riots broke out in Beirut and Tripoli and Jounieh.[12]
On 4 August 2020, the explosion of several thousand tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a hangar in the Port of Beirut caused considerable human and material damage across the city and the port. The final toll was 218 dead and over 7,000 injured[13] and damage estimated at nearly four billion euros by the World Bank and estimated to have left 300,000 homeless.[14] The industrial-port zone of the Port of Beirut's badly affected, further aggravating the economic situation. Vital for Lebanon, the port is the most important trading centres in Lebanon which ensures the transit of 60% of the country's imports.
The blast was so powerful that it physically shook the whole country of Lebanon. It was felt in Turkey, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, and Israel, as well as parts of Europe, and was heard in Cyprus, more than 240 km (150 mi) away.[15] It was detected by the United States Geological Survey as a seismic event of magnitude 3.3 and is considered one of the most powerful accidental artificial non-nuclear explosions in history.[15]
The adjacent grain silos were badly damaged. In July and August 2022, part of the silos collapsed following a weeks-long fire in the remaining grain.[17]
2022 parliamentary elections
In May 2022, Lebanon held its first election since a painful economic crisis dragged it to the brink of becoming a failed state. Lebanon's crisis has been so severe that more than 80 percent of the population is now considered poor by the United Nations. In the election Iran-backed Shia Muslim Hezbollah movement and its allies lost their parliamentary majority. Hezbollah did not lose any of its seats, but its allies lost seats. Hezbollah's ally, President Michel Aoun'sFree Patriotic Movement, was no longer the biggest Christian party after the election. A rival Christian party, led by Samir Geagea, with close ties to Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese Forces (LF), made gains. Sunni Future Movement, led by former prime minister Saad Hariri, did not participate the election, leaving a political vacuum to other Sunni politicians to fill.[18][19][20]
Electoral system
The Constitution of Lebanon does not provide for a specific candidacy procedure. Therefore, no individuals can be deemed to be official candidates, but legally only express an interest in the position.
Under article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution, a qualified majority of two-thirds of the members of the Lebanese Parliament is required to elect the president in the first round. The quorum also amounts to two-thirds of the Parliament. In the second round, a president can be elected by a simple majority of 65 deputies. There is however ambiguity on the constitutionality of the two-thirds quorum, since constitutional texts do not explicitly mention it. Some have interpreted this omission as intentional, such as legal scholar Assam Khalifeh, while Speaker Nabih Berri has relied on the opposite interpretation to enable his allies to resort to quorum-busting. An example of this would be the 2014–2016 Lebanese presidential election, where quorum would not be met for forty-three electoral sessions.
The Constitution also states that, in the last ten days of the incumbent's tenure, the Parliament is vested in the powers of an electoral college.
Access to the Lebanese presidency is subject to an informal agreement known as the National Pact. Agreed in 1943, the latter limits this office only to members of the Maronite Christian faith.[21]
Ziad Hayek, former head of the High Council for Privatization and public-private partnership (2006–2019), Lebanese nominee for president of the World Bank in 2019[24]
May Rihani, international development and gender scholar, Director of the Gibran Chair for Values and Peace at the University of Maryland, former UN co-chair of the United Nations Girls' Education Initiative (2008–2010)[27]
Gebran Bassil, MP (2018–present), incumbent party leader (2015–present) and former Minister of Telecommunications (2009–2009), Energy and Water (2009–2014) and Foreign Affairs (2014–2020)[34]
Nada Boustani Khoury, MP (2022–present) and former Minister of Energy and Water (2019–2020)
Ibrahim Kanaan, MP (2005–present) and Chairman of the Parliamentary Budget and Financial Affairs Commission (2009–present).[35] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, Kanaan was formerly a member of the FPM but left after disagreements with its leader Bassil vis à vis the presidential election and internal party affairs; he has good relations with the Maronite church and helped to mediate the Maarab agreement, so may enjoy support from the Lebanese Forces too.[36]
Ziyad Baroud, lawyer, professor and former Minister of Interior (2008–2011) and candidate for the 2018 Lebanese general election.[35] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, a previous candidacy for the FPM led the opposition to veto his candidacy.[36]
Chibli Mallat, international lawyer, professor and candidate for the aborted 2005–2006 presidential election
Neemat Frem, CEO of INDEVCO Group and MP (2018–present),[35] mentioned in a list circulated by the Maronite church; Frem stood for the FPM, later abandoned it after the Beirut port explosion, stood in alliance with the rival Kataeb party at the next election, and was considered an option by a group of former FPM members.[36]
Jihad Azour, former Minister of Finance (2005–2008)and the current Middle East and Central Asia Director in the IMF.[35] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, he is opposed by Hezbollah due to his participation in the first Siniora government.[36]
Samir Assaf, HSBC executive.[38] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, he is close to Macron, and enjoys French support because of his distance from the political establishment, but may lack familiarity with Lebanese political life.[36]
Nassif Hitti, diplomat and former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants (2020).[38] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, he left the government in 2020 because he felt the government had allowed Abbas Ibrahim, head of the Sûreté générale, to encroach on his diplomatic responsibilities, and elicits some support and opposition in the Aounist camp.[36]
Philippe Ziade, businessman and Honorary Consul of Lebanon in Nevada[39]
Roger Dib, former Minister, member in the National Committee of Christian/Muslim Dialogue, director of the Near East Consulting Group[35]
Farid Elias El-Khazen, former MP (2005–2018), Ambassador to the Holy See (2018–present).[35] According to L'Orient–Le Jour, he enjoyed good relations with the Maronite church, and the Assad regime; he was part of Frangieh's parliamentary bloc.[36]
Issam Khalifeh, historian, academic at the Lebanese University and trade unionist, first president of the National Union of Lebanese University Students
Election
First session
The first electoral session was held on 29 September 2022. The first and only round did not result in any candidate's election, due to the need to secure an absolute majority of 86 votes. Notably, 10 MPs voted for "Lebanon" while one vote went to Mahsa Amini. Before the second round, a number of deputies unexpectedly left the Chamber, leading the assembly to lose the quorum by one MP and postponing the vote.[43]
A second session was held on 13 October but failed to secure a quorum with only 71 out of 128 deputies being there due to FPM boycotting the session in memorial of 13 October 1990, below the quorum of 2/3 (86 deputies).[45][46] A third one is scheduled for 20 October[47]
Third session
A third session was held on 20 October. Michel Moawad received 42 votes, 55 MPs voted with a blank slip, one MP voted for Milad Abou Malhab. 17 MPs submitted ballots reading "New Lebanon", and one each for "Ruler, savior and reformer", "For Lebanon", "Righteous dictator" and "Nobody".[48] The second round was once again cancelled as FPM deputies left the Chamber, causing the loss of the quorum. A fourth session is scheduled for 24 October.[49]
The fourth session to elect a president was held on 24 October with the presence of 114 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 39 votes, while 50 blank ballots were registered, and 10 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, a reputable academic nominated by a number of pro-Change MPs. A number of MPs voted "New Lebanon" as in the previous session, while Jamil Al Sayyed wrote "My Condolences" on his ballot paper. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held.[50]
Michel Aoun signed the government's resignation decree, a day before his six-year term officially ended, and Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government remains in office in a caretaker capacity, which is unconstitutional since it goes against Aoun's request for the cabinet's step-down after numerous attempts failed to form a new cabinet.[52][53] Aoun's term officially ended on 31 October 2022 after 6 years in office, with no successor designated, similarly to his predecessors.[54][55]
Fifth session
The fifth session to elect a president was held on November 10 with the presence of 108 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 44 votes, while 47 blank ballots were registered, 6 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, a reputable academic nominated by a number of pro-Change MPs, 1 vote for former Minister Ziyad Baroud from Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab and 1 vote for Ziad Hayek from Elias Jaradeh. 7 MPs voted "New Lebanon" as in the previous session, while Zgharta MP Michel Douaihy wrote "Plan B" on his ballot paper and one vote went "For Lebanon". As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held.[56][57]
The sixth session to elect a president was held on November 17 with the presence of 112 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 43 votes, while 46 blank ballots were registered, 7 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, 1 vote for former Minister Ziyad Baroud, 1 vote for MP Michel Daher and 1 vote for Suleiman Frangieh Jr. 9 MPs voted "New Lebanon" while 2 ballots were cancelled. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held, a seventh session is scheduled for Thursday 24 November.[59]
The seventh session to elect a president was held on 24 November. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. The next session will be held in early December 2022.
The eighth session to elect a president was held on 1 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held on 8 December.
The ninth session to elect a president was held on 8 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held on 15 December.
The tenth session to elect a president was held on 15 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held in January 2023. The session scheduled for 12 January 2023 was postponed by the speaker due to the death of Hussein El-Husseini.[66]
The eleventh session to elect a president was held on 19 January 2023. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. After the election two MPs from the Change Movement locked themselves in parliament in protest.[68]
After the eleventh electoral session, Speaker Nabih Berri announced he would hold off of calling a twelfth session to elect a president unless he sees what he deems as "a sort of agreement" on a candidate. In response, Change MPs, joined by multiple parties, called for consecutive and successive ballots to be held until a president is chosen. Two reformist deputies, Melhem Khalaf and Najat Saliba, staged a sit-in in the Chamber of Deputies until a new session is held. As of June 14, 2023, the sit-in is still ongoing for its 147th consecutive day.[70]
In early June, the United States declared that it was thinking about imposing sanctions on individuals who had interfered with the election. Speaker Nabih Berri, who hadn't summoned a session since January, may have been referenced in this statement. Berri released a statement the next day in which he absolved himself of all blame for the obstruction. The international community has urged Lebanon to pick a new president and carry out the reforms necessary to secure a financial bailout arrangement on numerous occasions.[71]
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have announced their endorsement for Suleiman Frangieh in the upcoming ballots. In parallel, an initiative led by independent MP Ghassan Skaff culminated in talks between opposition parties, taking advantage of the growing rift between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah and the warming of Syrian-Gulf diplomatic relations. With the support of Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, it was announced in late May 2023 that the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb, the FPM and the PSP had agreed to endorse the candidacy of IMF economist and former Minister of Finance Jihad Azour for the role of president.[72][73]
Twelfth session
The twelfth session to elect a president was held on 14 June 2023.[74] No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held after only 81 MPs remained in the room. However, Nabih Berri's choice of not conducting a second round was controversial since there had been a greater consensus between the MPs unlike the sessions before. It was also argued by numerous MPs that the round should have been cancelled or ballots recounted since the votes cast did not match the MPs present in the session.[75] In that round, economist Jihad Azour received 60 votes, 51 votes for Suleiman Frangieh, 6 votes for former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, 1 vote for military general Joseph Aoun and 1 blank vote. 8 MPs voted "New Lebanon" while 1 ballot for controversial businessman and contractor Jihad Al Arab was cancelled as he is a Sunni Muslim. Finally, 1 ballot was counted as lost,[75] before being counted to Jihad Azour .[76]
Qatar declared support for Joseph Aoun during a visit by officials as they vowed to support the army with financial and military aid, the United States also followed with support.[78] A 5-nation group was formed by the Doha envoy which involved the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to hold talks and solve the presidential vacancy in Lebanon. Most members affirmed its support for the election of Joseph Aoun. Despite this Aoun, said during a meeting with a delegation from the Press Syndicate when asked about his candidacy, "I don't care about it, it doesn't concern me, no one has discussed it with me and I haven't discussed it with anyone".[79] Aoun's possible candidacy was first raised by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in July 2022 who suggested that he would make a good successor to Michel Aoun.[80]
Nabih Berri and Hezbollah nominated Georges Khoury, former ambassador to the Holy See, as a secondary option to Suleiman Frangieh. This was also reportedly proposed by Qatari mediation officials and even Najib Mikati.[83] Leaders of the main opposition Christian Blocs, Samir Geagea and Sami Gemayel, reacted with refusal to negotiate with Hezbollah unless they let go of their primary candidate Frangieh.[84] Nabih Berri called at the start of September 2024 for renewed Presidential elections.[85]
Following a ceasefire with Israel, Berri announced that parliament would convene to elect a president on 9 January 2025.[86]
On 12 December, MP Neemat Frem officially declared his presidential nomination in which he proposed multiple reform plans and the implementation of the Taif agreement and UN Resolution 1701.[87] After the fall of the Assad regime, rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani stated that Syria will not get involved in Lebanon's affairs stressing that "if the Lebanese agree on Joseph Aoun as president, we will support him." which is contrary to the Assad regime's influence on previous Lebanese presidential elections.[88] On the same day, Geagea said he was prepared to stand given sufficient support.[89]
On 16 December, Frangieh appeared to indicate his effective withdrawal of his candidacy; he admitted that his chances of success had weakened, and said he was open to any other appropriate candidate.[90]
On 18 December, the Democratic Gathering bloc, led by the Progressive Socialist Party, that previously supported Jihad Azour, announced in a statement that it will support the candidacy Joseph Aoun for the Lebanese presidency.[91] Former PSP leader Walid Jumblat reportedly tried to convince Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for his bloc to elect Aoun.[40] On the same day, opposition MPs including independents and members of the Kataeb party and Lebanese Forces published a communiqué calling for a candiate who could reconcile Lebanese and implement economic, budgetary, and administrative reforms.[92]
On 19 December, L'Orient–Le Jour published a list of plausible candidates, viz. Frangié, Aoun, Bayssari, Khoury, Frem, Kanaan, al-Khazen, Hitti, Azour, Baroud, Assaf, Cardahi, Habib Zoghbi, and Mallat.[36]
On 20 December, L'Orient–Le Jour reported that after Joumblatt's announcement of his support for Aoun, the FPM opposed his candidacy and sought to influence the election in the name of "Christian rights".[93]
On 24 December 2024, five Sunni allies of Hezbollah indicated they would not support Frangieh and said they would support a compromise candidate; they said they rather than others would choose their preferred candidate.[94]
On 31 December, Bassil, asked to choose between Aoun, Frangieh, and Geagea, said Geagea commanded popular legitimacy.[95]
On 5 January, Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah's liaison unit, said "we have already said we have no veto", and that "our only veto is against…Geagea", whose election would lead to "discord and destruction"; he also confirmed that Hezbollah would not veto Aoun.[96]
Thirteenth session
The thirteenth session to elect a president will be held on 9 January 2025.
.jpg)
