Northern League managed the highest swing ever in a regional election in Veneto (+20.5%), gaining from almost every side of the political spectrum, but mainly from The People of Freedom (–7.5%), the Democrats (–8.6%) and North-East Union (–5.1%), whose main member parties were North-East Project (5.4% in 2005) and Liga Veneta Repubblica (1.2%).
Electoral system
Regional elections in Veneto were ruled by the "Tatarella law" (approved in 1995), which provided for a mixed electoral system: four fifths of the regional councilors were elected in provincial constituencies by proportional representation, using the largest remainder method with a droop quota and open lists, while the residual votes and the unassigned seats were grouped into a "single regional constituency", where the whole ratios and the highest remainders were divided with the Hare method among the provincial party lists; one fifth of the council seats instead was reserved for regional lists and assigned with a majoritarian system: the leader of the regional list that scored the highest number of votes was elected to the presidency of the Region while the other candidates were elected regional councilors.
A threshold of 3% had been established for the provincial lists, which, however, could still have entered the regional council if the regional list to which they were connected had scored at least 5% of valid votes.
The panachage was also allowed: the voter can indicate a candidate for the presidency but prefer a provincial list connected to another candidate.
Since the early days Zaia was the strongest candidate. According to an opinion poll, 72% of Venetian voters liked him and 67% considered him practised (48 and 42% were the scores of Galan, largely behind also of Tosi), a 49% would back him as President, while only 37% would back Galan.[2] Moreover, centre-right voters preferred Zaia to Galan by an 8-point margin (49.3% to 41.2%). Differently from the incumbent president, Zaia was popular among the young and non-autonomous workers, who generally back the left.[3] Galan and the regional section of the PdL (whose leader is Silvio Berlusconi) disagreed and wanted a fourth term for Galan, who was first elected in 1995. At some point a three-way race in Veneto between Galan, Zaia and a candidate of the Democratic Party (PD) seemed possible, but neither Berlusconi nor Umberto Bossi, federal secretary of Lega Nord, liked the idea.[4][5][6]
In December 2009 the national committee of The People of Freedom (PdL) determined that it would have supported a Lega Nord member in Veneto.[7] Subsequently the National Council (where "national" means "Venetian") of Liga Veneta nominated Zaia for President. Tosi, who as president of Liga Veneta presided the Council, tried until the last minute to be the candidate[8] and some councillors opted for Franco Manzato instead.[9] However, as a strong majority backed Zaia (including the party's secretary Gian Paolo Gobbo), Zaia was voted unanimously by the Council, including Tosi.[10]
The Venetian PdL is afraid that Liga Veneta, headed by Zaia, will dominate regional politics for many years to come, similarly to what the South Tyrolean People's Party has done in South Tyrol. According to another opinion poll, in the forthcoming election, with Zaia candidate, the PdL would be reduced to a mere 23% with the League at 35% and Zaia would beat Galan also in a three-way race.[11]
Galan, who has seldom hinted the idea of forming a Venetist party of his own, was rumored as independent candidate supported by the Union of Christian and Centre Democrats (UDC) and, less likely, by the opposition Democratic Party.[12][13] However Galan ruled out the idea of running against his party and Zaia, opening the way for a bid by Antonio De Poli, UDC regional leader.[14][15]
The UDC refused to join forces with the centre-left, leaving the PD to choose between Laura Puppato, Mayor of Montebelluna, who had expressed her interest for the race[16] and Giuseppe Bortolussi, respected leader of the Mestre section of Confartigianato.[17] The PD eventually chose Bortolussi, who beat Puppato by 39 votes to 29 in the regional board of the party.[18]
After the election, Luca Zaia formed his first government, composed of twelve ministers, six of Liga Veneta, that maintained the strategic Health portfolio (with Luca Coletto) and gained, above all, Budget and Finances (with Roberto Ciambetti), and six of the PdL, including Marino Zorzato, who was sworn as Vice President, and Renato Chisso, who was confirmed for a third consecutive term as Minister of Infrastructures and Transports.
^From November 2013, when The People of Freedom was disbanded and its members joined either "Forza Italia" or "New Centre-Right", to February 2014 the group was named as "The People of Freedom – New Centre Right". In February 2014 the group was finally renamed "The People of Freedom – Forza Italia for Veneto".
^The group was originally named "Venetian Commitment" and changed its name to "Tosi List for Veneto" two weeks after its launch.
^The group was originally named "Toward North–Venetian People" and changed its name to "Family–Pensioners" a week after its launch.
^Civic Veneto, composed of three Democratic councillors, was formed as a technical group in order to validate the slates of a civic list in support of the PD and the Democratic candidate, Alessandra Moretti, in the 2015 regional election. Similar groups were formed by supporters of Luca Zaia and Flavio Tosi.
^Zaia President, composed of three councillors of Liga Veneta–Lega Nord, was formed as a technical group in order to validate the slates of a civic list in support of the party and its candidate, incumbent President Luca Zaia, in the 2015 regional election. Similar groups were formed by supporters of Alessandra Moretti and Flavio Tosi.
