Black swan theory

The Black Swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, with little explanation as to why it happened. These events are typically not meant to happen, and are not prepared for, but are believed to have been unavoidable. The term was used because of an ancient saying that black swans did not exist, until found in Australia in 1697. This was an unexpected event, hence the name.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001.^[1]

References

1. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010) [2007]. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd ed.). London: Penguin. ISBN 978-0-14103459-1. Retrieved 25 April 2020.