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Tobique—Mactaquac
New Brunswick electoral district
	Tobique-Mactaquac in relation to other New Brunswick federal electoral districts (2012 boundaries)
Coordinates:	46°31′52″N 67°14′13″W / 46.531°N 67.237°W
Federal electoral district
Legislature	House of Commons
MP	Richard Bragdon; Conservative
;
District created	1996
First contested	1997
Last contested	2021
District webpage	profile, map
Demographics
Population (2016)	68,673
Electors (2019)	55,104
Area (km²)	15,130
Pop. density (per km²)	4.5
Census division(s)	Carleton, Victoria, York
Census subdivision(s)	Grand Falls / Grand-Sault, Fredericton, Woodstock, Bright, Douglas, Drummond, Kent, Saint Marys, Wakefield

Tobique—Mactaquac is a federal electoral district in New Brunswick, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1997.

Political geography

The district includes the counties of Carleton and Victoria as well as the Parish and Village of Saint-André and the eastern part of the County of York (excluding the City of Fredericton and vicinity). The neighbouring ridings are Madawaska—Restigouche, Miramichi, Fredericton, and New Brunswick Southwest. Across the border to Maine, it neighbours the Maine District 2 of the United States House of Representatives.

The electoral district was created in 1996 from portions of the old ridings of Carleton—Charlotte, Fredericton—York—Sunbury, and Madawaska—Victoria. Its creation was very controversial, as it included areas with both large anglophone and francophone populations, while neighbouring communities were placed in other ridings. This seemingly went against the "communities of interest" criterion in drawing electoral boundaries.

As per the 2012 federal electoral distribution, this riding will gain territory from Fredericton and lose a small territory to the new riding of Miramichi—Grand Lake.

History

Historical population
Year	Pop.	±%
2001	70,105	—
2006	68,352	−2.5%
2011	68,709	+0.5%
2016	68,673	−0.1%
2021	69,344	+1.0%

On two separate occasions Tobique—Mactaquac has been involved in party nomination controversies. In the 1997 election, the Liberals were alleged to have rigged their meeting to choose Pierrette Ringuette, the Member of Parliament for the defunct Madawaska—Victoria riding. The meeting was held in Grand Falls, near her hometown and at the far northern end of the riding. Because of sound problems, only her speech was carried over the loudspeakers. Ringuette-Maltais lost the election to Gilles Bernier of the Progressive Conservatives.

In the 2004 election, the Conservative Party selected Adam Richardson, who had run for the Canadian Alliance in the 2000 election, but the national head office refused to sign his nomination papers, apparently because of Richardson's demands that party leader Stephen Harper apologize for allegedly derogatory comments about Atlantic Canadians. The eventual Conservative candidate, Mike Allen, lost to Liberal incumbent Andy Savoy.

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following members of Parliament:

Parliament	Years		Party
Tobique—Mactaquac Riding created from Carleton—Charlotte, Fredericton—York—Sunbury and Madawaska—Victoria
36th	1997–2000	Gilles Bernier	Progressive Conservative
37th	2000–2004	Andy Savoy	Liberal
38th	2004–2006	Andy Savoy	Liberal
39th	2006–2008	Mike Allen	Conservative
40th	2008–2011
41st	2011–2015
42nd	2015–2019	T. J. Harvey	Liberal
43rd	2019–2021	Richard Bragdon	Conservative
44th	2021–present	Richard Bragdon	Conservative

Election results

Graph of election results in Tobique—Mactaquac (1996-, minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

Tobique—Mactaquac, 2023 representation order

2021 federal election redistributed results^[3]
Party		Vote	%
	Conservative	16,954	52.83
	Liberal	7,269	22.65
	New Democratic	3,702	11.53
	People's	2,320	7.23
	Green	1,574	4.90
	Others	275	0.86

Tobique—Mactaquac, 2013 representation order

This riding gained territory from Fredericton and lost territory to Miramichi—Grand Lake for the 42nd Canadian federal election.

v t e 2021 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Richard Bragdon	17,536	50.98	+0.7	$45,965.28
	Liberal	Cully Robinson	8,223	23.90	-1.3	$10,342.40
	New Democratic	Meriet Gray Miller	3,656	10.63	+2.7	$0.00
	People's	Daniel Joseph Waggoner	2,930	8.52	+6.0	$2,750.09
	Green	Anthony Martin	1,657	4.82	-9.3	$5,670.46
	Independent	Steven J. LaForest	398	1.15	N/A	$0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit			34,400	99.2	–	$107,922.33
Total rejected ballots			291	0.8
Turnout			34,691	62.0
Registered voters			55,973
	Conservative hold		Swing		+1.0
Source: Elections Canada^[4]

v t e 2019 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Richard Bragdon	19,229	50.34	+13.32	$31,254.86
	Liberal	Kelsey MacDonald	9,631	25.21	-21.40	$12,723.90
	Green	Rowan P. Miller	5,398	14.13	+9.03	$11,462.77
	New Democratic	Megan Aiken	3,007	7.87	-3.41	$0.00
	People's	Dominic Guay	936	2.45	-	$402.50
Total valid votes/expense limit			38,201	100.00
Total rejected ballots			376	0.97	+0.33
Turnout			38,577	70.01	-0.78
Eligible voters			55,104
	Conservative gain from Liberal		Swing		+17.36
Source: Elections Canada^[5]^[6]

v t e 2015 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	T. J. Harvey	17,909	46.61	+30.38	$67,600.14
	Conservative	Richard Bragdon	14,225	37.02	-25.12	$57,487.20
	New Democratic	Robert Kitchen	4,334	11.28	-7.86	$6,199.56
	Green	Terry Wishart	1,959	5.10	+2.62	$3,275.40
Total valid votes/expense limit			38,427	100.00		$204,512.49
Total rejected ballots			248	0.64	–
Turnout			38,675	71.79	–
Eligible voters			53,870
	Liberal gain from Conservative		Swing		+27.75
Source: Elections Canada^[7]^[8]

2011 federal election redistributed results^[9]
Party		Vote	%
	Conservative	21,410	62.14
	New Democratic	6,594	19.14
	Liberal	5,591	16.23
	Green	853	2.48
	Others	7	0.02

Tobique—Mactaquac, 2003 representation order

v t e 2011 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Mike Allen	21,108	62.70	+5.21	$44,047.06
	New Democratic	Pierre Cyr	6,388	18.98	+3.61	$4,796.14
	Liberal	Charles Chiasson	5,337	15.85	-5.70	$29,831.59
	Green	Rish McGlynn	831	2.47	-3.29	$5.82
Total valid votes/expense limit			33,664	100.0		$84,385.35
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots			256	0.75	-0.33
Turnout			33,920	63.91	+4.18
Eligible voters			53,073
	Conservative hold		Swing		+0.80
Sources:^[10]^[11]

v t e 2008 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Mike Allen	18,071	57.49	+13.70	$61,678.30
	Liberal	Sally McGrath	6,773	21.55	-21.32	$26,392.40
	New Democratic	Alice Finnamore	4,830	15.37	+3.87	$8,535.56
	Green	Mark Glass	1,810	5.76	+3.89	$1,492.00
Total valid votes/expense limit			31,433	100.0		$81,901
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots			343	1.08	+0.04
Turnout			31,776	59.73	-8.02
Eligible voters			53,203
	Conservative hold		Swing		+17.51

v t e 2006 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Mike Allen	15,894	43.79	+4.20	$66,976.92
	Liberal	Andy Savoy	15,558	42.87	-5.36	$70,900.54
	New Democratic	Alice Finnamore	4,172	11.50	+3.00	$9,442.17
	Green	Robert Bérubé Jr.	679	1.87	-1.81	none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit			36,292	100.0		$76,462
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots			383	1.04
Turnout			36,675	67.75	+3.75
Eligible voters			54,135
	Conservative gain from Liberal		Swing		+4.78

v t e 2004 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Andy Savoy	16,787	48.23	+15.82	$74,481.32
	Conservative	Mike Allen	13,779	39.59	-24.32	$60,455.56
	New Democratic	Jason Mapplebeck	2,957	8.50	+4.82	$1,645.00
	Green	Scott Jones	1,282	3.68	–	$882.20
Total valid votes/expense limit			34,805	100.0		$74,648
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots			349	1.0
Turnout			35,154	64.00	-2.29
Eligible voters			54,931
	Liberal notional gain from Progressive Conservative		Swing		+20.07
Changes from 2000 are based on redistributed results. Conservative Party change is based on the combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative Party totals.

2000 federal election redistributed results
Party		Vote	%
	Progressive Conservative	11,708	33.80
	Liberal	11,225	32.41
	Alliance	10,428	30.11
	New Democratic	1,273	3.68

Tobique—Mactaquac, 1996 representation order

v t e 2000 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Andy Savoy	10,900	33.6	+3.4
	Progressive Conservative	Gilles Bernier	10,750	33.1	-2.8
	Alliance	Adam Richardson	9,570	29.5	+1.8
	New Democratic	Carolyn Van Dine	1,216	3.7	-2.5
Total			32,436	100.0

v t e 1997 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Progressive Conservative	Gilles Bernier	12,125	35.9
	Liberal	Pierrette Ringuette	10,190	30.2
	Reform	Ivan Shaw	9,371	27.7
	New Democratic	Leslie Ann Ferguson	2,093	6.2
Total			33,779	100.0