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The Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned (Te Tira Ārai Urutā) is a Royal Commission of Inquiry appointed by the New Zealand Government to look at its official response to the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand. Its focus is to look at lessons learned from the Government response to prepare for future pandemics.^[1] The inquiry examines the overall pandemic response with the exception of decisions made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Committee.^[2] The first phase report was released in late November 2024.^[3]

Background

On 5 December 2022, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall formally announced that the Labour Government would be holding a Royal Commission of Inquiry into its COVID-19 pandemic response. The inquiry was chaired by Australian-based epidemiologist Tony Blakely, former National Party cabinet minister Hekia Parata, and former New Zealand Treasury secretary John Whitehead. The inquiry was launched on 1 February 2023 and expected to finish in mid-2024.^[2]^[4] Ardern estimated that the royal commission would cost about NZ$15 million.^[5]

The inquiry examined the overall pandemic response including the health response, border management, community care, isolation, quarantine, and the economic response including monetary policy. The inquiry also covered the impact of the pandemic on Māori interests within the framework of the Treaty of Waitangi relationship, its impact on essential workers and vulnerable populations and communities, and the legislative, regulatory and operational settings required to support New Zealand's immediate economic response to a future pandemic.^[5]

The inquiry also did not look at the Government's "individual decisions," the application of policies to individual cases or circumstances, judgements and decisions made by courts, tribunals and other agencies on COVID-19-related matters, private sector operations, and certain decisions made by the Reserve Bank's independent monetary policy committee. In addition the inquiry did not look at changes to court and parliamentary proceedings, and the conduct of the 2020 New Zealand general election.^[5]

First phase

On 13 November 2023, Radio New Zealand reported that the first stage of the inquiry had been running for several months. The commissioners held private meetings with over 200 organisations including industry leaders from the farming and supermarket sectors, and small regional groups such as the Tolaga Bay Area School. According to Blakely, Ardern from the onset had decided against holding public hearings to promote a non-adversarial atmosphere that would allow the commissioners to have "free and frank" discussions with a range of people. By contrast, the UK COVID-19 Inquiry which had public hearings.^[6]

In addition to private meetings, the Inquiry planned to launch its second phase at the end of November where people would be allowed to make online submissions. Respondents could choose to remain anonymous and keep their information confidential.^[6]

On 1 December 2023, The Spinoff reported that Parata had resigned from the Royal Commission on 15 November 2023 following the electoral defeat of the Labour Government. In response to the incoming National Government's plans to introduce an independent inquiry, Blakely stated that he was open to the new Government reviewing the Royal Commission's terms of reference.^[7] That same day, the Royal Commission announced that it had delayed hearing public submissions until 2024 while the National-led coalition government reviews its scope. While National's coalition partner New Zealand First has advocated a separate independent inquiry, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has indicated his openness to expanding the scope of the Royal Commission.^[8]

Proposed expansion of scope

While epidemiologist Michael Baker welcomed the inquiry as a means of preparing for the next pandemic, the Green and National parties regarded the inquiry's scope as too narrow and called for a separate review into its economic impact.^[9] While campaigning during the lead up to the 2023 New Zealand general election, the populist New Zealand First party's leader Winston Peters had criticised the Royal Commission's terms of reference for being "too limited" and called for an unrestricted COVID-19 inquiry that was not run by Parliament.^[10]

Following the 2023 New Zealand election, the incoming National-led coalition government announced that it would hold a separate independent inquiry into the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand. National had forged a coalition agreement with New Zealand First, which had campaigned on compensating people who lost their jobs due to the vaccine mandates or suffered vaccine injuries. As part of the National-NZ First coalition agreement, the independent inquiry would be conducted publicly with both local and international experts. This independent inquiry would cover the use of multiple lockdowns, vaccine procurement and efficacy, the social and economic impacts at both national and regional levels, and whether the Government's COVID-related decisions and steps were justified.^[11]^[10]

On 21 December 2023, lawyer Deborah Chambers KC advocated that the Royal Commission be scrapped, claiming that the terms of reference and methodology were "unfit for purpose." Chambers also opined that the leadership of the Royal Commission were not conducive to a broad, independent inquiry.^[12]

Revamp

On 2 February 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke Van Velden confirmed that the National-led Government would expand the scope of the Royal Commission as part of its coalition agreements with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. Public consultation would begin in February 2024 to include the use of multiple lockdowns, vaccine procurement, the socio-economic of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional and national levels, the cost-effectiveness of the government's policies, the extent of disruption to public health, education and businesses caused by the Government's policies, and whether the government response was consistent with the rule of law.^[13]

A website was also set up to allow people to make submissions to the Inquiry before 24 March 2024. The Inquiry would also seek submissions at public events such as A&P shows and festivals. By 23 February, 3,000 people had contributed to the Inquiry. The Inquiry is expected to be completed by 30 September 2024.^[14]

In mid February 2024, Inquiry members Whitehead and Blakely visited several Northland towns including Whangārei, Kaikohe and Kaitaia. The inquiry heard from hundreds of Northland residents and communities including iwi (tribes), health providers, business organisations, Civil Defence, schools and community groups. Iwi organisation Te Rūnanga o Whaingaroa's chief executive Bree Davis testified about the difficulties in accessing resources from Wellington caused by the lockdowns, which forced the iwi to depend on its own resources. Business representatives including Dickie Burman of Kerikeri District Business and Dave Templeton of the regional development agency Northland Inc testified about the disruptions caused by the lockdowns. Former Member of Parliament and Māori leader Hone Harawira, who organised the Te Tai Tokerau Border Control, defended the lockdowns but criticised the previous Labour Government for not working more with Māori communities.^[14]

By late June 2024, the Inquiry had received 13,000 submissions in its first phase. On 25 June 2024, Van Velden announced that the Inquiry's cope would be expanded during its second phase. The second phase's terms of references included vaccine efficacy and safety, the use of vaccine mandates, the extent of disruption caused by the Government's pandemic response to New Zealanders' health, education and business, the extended lockdowns in Auckland and Northland, the utilisation of partnerships with business and professional groups, and the utilisation of new technology, methods, and effective international practices. The second phase is expected to begin in November 2024 and is expected to deliver its final recommendations by February 2025. Van Velden also confirmed that Whitehead and Blakely would step down in November prior to the commencement of the second phase, and would be joined by a third commissioner who would participate in the second phase.^[15]

In response, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters invoked the first use of the "agree to disagree" provisions in the coalition agreements. Peters said that NZ First strongly disagreed with the Government's decision to complete the current Royal Commission into the COVID-19 inquiry first and retain its chair Blakely. Peters also claimed that the initial inquiry was "designed to cover the Labour Party's backside, to cover their incompetence and to cover the gross waste of the Covid lockdown months." In response, Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who was Minister for COVID-19 Response,^[16] accused Peters of trying to appeal to conspiracy theorists and joked that Peters would prefer former TVNZ host and anti-vaccination activist Liz Gunn as a commissioner.^[15]^[17]

Second phase

On 27 August, the Government announced a new chair and commissioners for the second phase of the COVID-19 Inquiry. Grant Illingworth KC was appointed chair, asked to focus on government decisions in 2021 and 2022 about vaccine efficacy and lockdowns. The Government also appointed public and economic policy professional Judy Kavanagh, and barrister Anthony Hill, who is a former health and disability commissioner. They will replace Phase 1 chair Professor Tony Blakely and commissioner John Whitehead when the first phase concludes on 28 November 2024.^[18]

Reports

First phase report

On 28 November 2024, the Royal Commission of Inquiry released its first phase report, which was authored by Tony Blakely, John Whitehead and Grant Illingworth. It found that the use of lockdowns and vaccine mandates had helped curb the spread of COVID-19 but also eroded social cohesion and trust in the Government. The report also acknowledged that misinformation and disinformation had contributed to the erosion of social cohesion and trust in the Government's pandemic response.^[3]^[19] The report also concluded that the repeated lockdowns in Auckland had "cumulative and multifaceted" impacts on the local economy, physical and mental health. Groups that were disproportionately affected by the lockdowns included Māori and Pasifika New Zealanders, lower socio-economic communities and students in Auckland. The report credited efforts by Māori and other community groups with alleviating some of the "potential negative impacts" of the lockdown.^[3] The full report was released on the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned's website.^[20]

The first phase report presented a long list of lessons to be learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and proposed 39 recommendations for future pandemics. These recommendations included establishing a central agency to coordinate all preparation and response planning for future pandemics, developing an "all-of-government" response plan, developing lockdown and border restriction plans and identifying circumstances for imposing vaccine mandates.^[3] University of Canterbury statistician Michael Plank defended the Government's COVID-19 pandemic response while University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker welcomed the report's recommendations. University of Auckland vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris commended the report for acknowledging the lack of early support for Māori and Pacific providers to deliver vaccines to their own communities while expressing concern about the dangers of disinformation and misinformation in future pandemics.^[3] Former COVID-19 response minister and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins acknowledged that the 2021 Auckland lockdown and vaccine rollout had been "incredibly challenging." Outgoing Inquiry chair Tony Blakely urged the Government to be prepared for future pandemics and expressed concerns about the Sixth National Government's public sector job cuts.^[19]