The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.
Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.
Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".
Date(s) conducted
Polling organisation/client
Sample size
Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?
On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the 2024 United Kingdom general election as a de facto independence referendum.
Question asked is stated in notes field.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic
Date(s) conducted
Polling organisation/client
Sample size
Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below.
Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.
^Unusually this poll asked the Indy Q twice in the same poll, of samples of just over 500 each and then merged them together, questions should be borne in mind as to the margin of error for what is essentially 2 smaller polls
^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
^Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
^The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
^ abcSavanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
^Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
^Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
^Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
^Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
^Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
^Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement.
In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the 2024 UK general election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence.
In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election?
/Which party are you most inclined to support?"
^Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
^The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
^The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
^Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
^ Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
^ Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or
should not be a referendum on Scottish
independence?"
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