Opinion polling for the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election

Main article: 2012 Taiwanese presidential election

Nationwide public opinion polling have been commissioned in the leadup to the Taiwanese presidential election of 2012 by various organisations, including the Apple Daily, China Times, Global Views Magazine, Liberty Times, Era News and TVBS News. Election forecasts have also been released by various organisations, including the National Chengchi University, China Times, "Gallup" Market Research (not part of the global Gallup organization),[1] Global Views Magazine, and TVBS News, through the use of different forecasting models.

It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, sources such as TVBS News, United Daily News, and China Times are considered to be pro-unification, while sources such as Liberty Times are considered to be pro-independence.

Opinion polling

Two-way race

Poll Source Date of completion Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen Undecided
Democratic Progressive Party April 26, 2011 36.23% 41.16% 22.61%
Trendspotting Survey and Research April 26, 2011 33.45% 43.35% 23.20%
Master Survey and Research April 26, 2011 33.81% 43.11% 23.08%
All Dimension Survey and Research April 26, 2011 35.87% 42.93% 21.20%
Era News April 26, 2011 35.86% 41.97% 22.17%
China Times April 27, 2011 33.0% 33.4% 33.6%
United Daily News April 27, 2011 36% 37% 26%
Apple Daily April 27, 2011 29.38% 56.21% 14.41%
TVBS News April 27, 2011 43% 42% 15%
Shih Hsin University May 7, 2011 44.2% 38.3% 17.5%
Global Views Survey and Research May 10, 2011 38.9% 38.6% 22.6%
Apple Daily May 13, 2011 53.76% 31.97% 14.27%
Master Survey and Research May 16, 2011 40.6% 41.3% 18.1%
China Times May 18, 2011 34.9% 26.9% 37.7%
United Daily News May 18, 2011 45% 27% 27%
Liberty Times May 19, 2011 29.45% 31.55% 39.00%
TVBS News May 19, 2011 45% 44% 10%
Liberty Times May 24, 2011 31.34% 34.57% 34.08%
TVBS News May 30, 2011 46% 42% 10%
Democratic Progressive Party June 9, 2011 40.0% 41.3% 18.7%
Apple Daily June 14, 2011 43.02% 46.27% 10.71%
Global Views Survey and Research June 15, 2011 41.2% 36.3% 22.5%
TVBS News June 20, 2011 44% 39% 16%
Era News June 20, 2011 34.90% 37.35% 27.76%
Liberty Times June 28, 2011 27.12% 31.66% 41.22%
Trend Survey and Research June 30, 2011 42.4% 38.8% 18.8%
TVBS News July 7, 2011 44% 36% 17%
Era News July 9, 2011 38.6% 33.1% 28.4%
I-tel Survey and Research July 12, 2011 49.64% 50.36% —
United Daily News July 13, 2011 43% 37% 20%
Global Views Survey and Research July 15, 2011 37.3% 37.2% 25.5%
Apple Daily July 15, 2011 42.57% 40.80% 16.63%
Trend Survey and Research July 17, 2011 41.6% 36.3% 22.1%
TVBS News July 21, 2011 45% 38% 16%
Liberty Times July 26, 2011 36.39% 34.29% 29.32%
Democratic Progressive Party July 27, 2011 49.9% 50.1% —
China Times August 3, 2011 33.5% 29.2% 37.3%
Era News August 5, 2011 33.1% 30.1% 36.8%
I-tel Survey and Research[permanent dead link‍] August 11, 2011 50.45% 49.55% —
Apple Daily August 12, 2011 44.27% 33.73% 22.00%
United Daily News Archived 2012-05-16 at the Wayback Machine August 14, 2011 44% 36% 18%
TVBS News August 15, 2011 46% 39% 14%
US Congress Report August 15, 2011 37% 37% 26%
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 2011 39.6% 38.1% 22.3%
Trend Survey and Research August 24, 2011 45.7% 40.2% 14.1%
TVBS News August 30, 2011 46% 37% 17%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine August 31, 2011 41.1% 39.4% 19.5%
Era News September 3, 2011 36.9% 30.4% 32.8%
Liberty Times September 7, 2011 36.87% 33.92% 29.21%
Democratic Progressive Party September 9, 2011 44.0% 43.6% 12.4%
China Times September 9, 2011 43.6% 33.7% 22.7%
Apple Daily September 9, 2011 30.69% 51.29% 18.02%
TVBS News September 14, 2011 48% 37% 16%
United Daily News Archived 2011-09-23 at the Wayback Machine September 14, 2011 46% 39% 14%
Liberty Times September 16, 2011 36.26% 36.70% 27.04%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine September 16, 2011 42.8% 34.6% 22.6%
Apple Daily September 17, 2011 42.59% 33.92% 23.49%
Era News September 17, 2011 41.5% 32.7% 25.7%
China Times September 18, 2011 41% 36% 23%
Global Views Survey and Research September 19, 2011 39.2% 38.3% 22.5%
Democratic Progressive Party September 19, 2011 42.8% 44.3% 12.9%
TVBS News September 20, 2011 47% 35% 18%
TVBS News September 22, 2011 47% 37% 17%
TVBS News September 28, 2011 46% 38% 17%
Focus Survey and Research September 28, 2011 43.2% 35.9% 11.9%
China Times October 2, 2011 41.7% 37.1% 21.2%
China Times October 3, 2011 42.3% 35.3% 22.4%
China Times October 4, 2011 42.7% 35.8% 21.5%
China Times October 5, 2011 43.2% 34.8% 22.0%
China Times October 6, 2011 42.4% 34.1% 23.5%
TVBS News October 6, 2011 45% 38% 17%
China Times October 7, 2011 43.0% 34.5% 22.5%
China Times October 8, 2011 42.0% 34.1% 23.9%
Trend Survey and Research October 8, 2011 42.9% 33.9% 23.2%
China Times October 9, 2011 40.9% 34.1% 25.0%
China Times October 10, 2011 41.0% 32.4% 26.5%
China Times October 11, 2011 41.4% 33.3% 25.3%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine October 12, 2011 40.6% 32.0% 27.4%
China Times October 12, 2011 42.5% 32.5% 25.0%
TVBS News October 12, 2011 43% 38% 19%
China Times October 13, 2011 43.3% 33.3% 23.4%
China Times October 14, 2011 43.5% 33.8% 22.7%
United Daily News Archived 2011-11-18 at the Wayback Machine October 15, 2011 46% 36% 18%
China Times October 15, 2011 42.7% 36.3% 21.0%
Taipei University of Education October 15, 2011 36.5% 30.6% 32.9%
China Times October 16, 2011 42.4% 35.1% 22.5%
China Times October 17, 2011 43.1% 35.5% 21.4%
China Times October 18, 2011 43.6% 35.5% 20.9%
China Times October 19, 2011 44.2% 35.7% 20.1%
China Times October 20, 2011 44.1% 36.0% 19.9%
TVBS News October 20, 2011 45% 39% 16%
China Times October 21, 2011 44.6% 36.1% 19.3%
China Times October 22, 2011 44.6% 36.6% 18.8%
China Times October 23, 2011 43.9% 38.4% 17.7%
China Times October 24, 2011 43.2% 38.6% 18.2%
China Times October 25, 2011 44.1% 38.6% 17.3%
Liberty Times October 26, 2011 35.60% 36.10% 28.30%
TVBS News October 26, 2011 44% 39% 17%
China Times October 26, 2011 44.2% 39.6% 16.2%
China Times October 27, 2011 44.0% 38.7% 17.3%
China Times October 28, 2011 43.6% 39.0% 17.4%
China Times October 29, 2011 44.4% 38.5% 17.1%
Decision Making Research October 29, 2011 37.3% 40.1% 22.6%
China Times October 30, 2011 44.2% 39.0% 16.8%
TVBS News October 31, 2011 46% 39% 15%
China Times November 3, 2011 43.5% 39.7% 16.8%
TVBS News November 3, 2011 47% 42% 10%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine November 7, 2011 37.8% 36.1% 26.1%
China Times November 7, 2011 45.4% 41.0% 13.6%
China Times November 8, 2011 44.1% 40.9% 15.0%
Liberty Times November 9, 2011 37.17% 36.29% 26.54%
TVBS News November 10, 2011 45% 44% 11%
China Times November 11, 2011 42.9% 38.9% 18.2%
United Daily News Archived 2011-11-14 at the Wayback Machine November 12, 2011 45% 39% 16%
China Times November 14, 2011 42.4% 39.2% 18.4%
TVBS News November 16, 2011 46% 45% 9%
China Times November 17, 2011 45.0% 39.3% 15.7%
China Times November 22, 2011 46.1% 41.7% 12.2%
Liberty Times November 23, 2011 36.58% 39.61% 23.81%

Three-way race

Poll Source Date of Completion Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen James Soong Undecided
Era News July 1, 2011 35.8% 33.9% 8.6% 21.6%
Trend Survey and Research July 17, 2011 35.8% 32.3% 10.0% 21.9%
TVBS News July 21, 2011 38% 36% 13% 12%
China Times August 3, 2011 33.0% 28.6% 10.3% 28.0%
Era News August 5, 2011 29.3% 27.7% 15.4% 27.6%
Apple Daily August 12, 2011 38.82% 27.82% 18.95% 14.41%
United Daily News Archived 2012-05-16 at the Wayback Machine August 14, 2011 38% 31% 15% 16%
TVBS News August 15, 2011 39% 35% 16% 9%
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 2011 35.1% 33.9% 14.0% 17.0%
Trend Survey and Research August 24, 2011 37.2% 31.9% 16.7% 14.2%
TVBS News August 30, 2011 40% 32% 17% 12%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine August 31, 2011 33.1% 32.4% 12.7% 21.8%
Era News September 3, 2011 35.2% 28.6% 14.3% 21.9%
Liberty Times September 7, 2011 31.46% 28.23% 14.68% 25.63%
I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine September 8, 2011 41.38% 40.89% 17.73% —
China Times September 1, 2011 38.8% 31.5% 13.6% 16.1%
TVBS News September 14, 2011 42% 34% 14% 10%
United Daily News Archived 2011-09-23 at the Wayback Machine September 14, 2011 40% 32% 13% 14%
Liberty Times September 16, 2011 31.61% 31.61% 13.44% 23.34%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine September 16, 2011 33.4% 27.9% 11.4% 27.4%
Apple Daily September 17, 2011 39.70% 29.64% 16.21% 14.45%
Era News September 17, 2011 36.3% 28.5% 11.2% 24.1%
China Times September 18, 2011 39% 32% 11% 18%
Global Views Survey and Research September 11, 2011 35.8% 36.0% 10.0% 18.2%
Democratic Progressive Party September 11, 2011 36.2% 37.4% 12.4% 14.0%
TVBS News September 20, 2011 43% 32% 14% 11%
TVBS News September 22, 2011 42% 32% 15% 11%
TVBS News September 28, 2011 40% 33% 14% 13%
Focus Survey and Research September 28, 2011 33.6% 29.8% 11.5% 16.9%
Trend Survey and Research September 28, 2011 36.2% 28.4% 9.7% 25.7%
China Times October 2, 2011 39.5% 36.0% 11.7% 12.8%
China Times October 3, 2011 38.7% 34.7% 11.1% 15.5%
China Times October 4, 2011 38.5% 35.1% 12.1% 14.3%
China Times October 5, 2011 38.4% 33.5% 12.8% 15.3%
China Times October 6, 2011 37.5% 32.2% 13.7% 16.6%
Master Survey and Research October 6, 2011 37.3% 36.1% 12.6% 13.9%
TVBS News October 6, 2011 40% 35% 13% 13%
China Times October 7, 2011 37.5% 31.7% 13.6% 17.2%
China Times October 8, 2011 37.7% 31.9% 13.2% 17.2%
Trend Survey and Research October 8, 2011 36.2% 28.4% 9.7% 25.7%
China Times October 1, 2011 37.9% 31.6% 13.4% 17.1%
China Times October 10, 2011 38.0% 30.6% 13.2% 18.2%
China Times October 11, 2011 38.9% 31.4% 12.0% 17.7%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine October 12, 2011 37.0% 30.5% 13.3% 19.2%
China Times October 12, 2011 40.0% 31.0% 11.4% 17.6%
TVBS News October 12, 2011 38% 34% 15% 13%
China Times October 13, 2011 39.7% 30.3% 12.6% 17.4%
China Times October 14, 2011 39.0% 31.4% 11.7% 17.9%
United Daily News Archived 2011-11-18 at the Wayback Machine October 15, 2011 43% 32% 11% 14%
China Times October 15, 2011 39.5% 32.7% 11.3% 16.5%
Taipei University of Education October 15, 2011 34.0% 26.4% 10.2% 29.4%
China Times October 16, 2011 39.9% 32.5% 10.3% 17.3%
China Times October 17, 2011 40.9% 32.4% 11.0% 15.7%
China Times October 18, 2011 42.0% 33.7% 9.4% 14.9%
China Times October 11, 2011 43.7% 33.7% 9.1% 13.5%
China Times October 20, 2011 42.0% 34.8% 9.3% 13.8%
TVBS News October 20, 2011 43% 35% 12% 10%
I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2016-04-07 at the Wayback Machine October 21, 2011 43.72% 42.95% 13.33% —
China Times October 21, 2011 42.3% 35.1% 9.7% 12.9%
China Times October 22, 2011 42.3% 35.8% 9.4% 12.5%
China Times October 23, 2011 41.6% 36.3% 10.6% 11.5%
China Times October 24, 2011 40.6% 36.9% 10.6% 11.9%
China Times October 25, 2011 42.1% 37.0% 10.1% 10.8%
Liberty Times October 26, 2011 31.91% 30.28% 11.13% 26.67%
TVBS News October 26, 2011 42% 33% 13% 12%
China Times October 26, 2011 42.1% 37.5% 9.5% 10.9%
China Times October 27, 2011 42.2% 37.4% 8.5% 11.9%
China Times October 28, 2011 41.3% 38.0% 8.3% 12.4%
China Times October 21, 2011 42.1% 37.0% 9.3% 11.6%
Decision Making Research October 21, 2011 32.2% 35.9% 13.7% 18.2%
China Times October 30, 2011 41.3% 37.1% 10.0% 11.6%
China Times October 31, 2011 41.8% 36.0% 10.4% 11.8%
TVBS News October 31, 2011 39% 33% 9% 20%
China Times November 1, 2011 41.3% 35.8% 11.0% 11.9%
China Times November 2, 2011 42.0% 33.8% 11.4% 12.8%
Focus Survey and Research November 2, 2011 38.0% 30.7% 9.7% 21.6%
TVBS News November 3, 2011 38% 35% 14% 13%
China Times November 3, 2011 41.2% 35.3% 11.3% 12.2%
Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine November 4, 2011 39.5% 38.6% 12.9% 9.1%
China Times November 4, 2011 42.0% 35.6% 10.6% 11.8%
China Times November 5, 2011 41.4% 37.3% 10.1% 11.2%
China Times November 6, 2011 41.7% 38.2% 10.4% 9.7%
Gallup Market Research November 6, 2011 32.4% 25.6% 8.2% 33.8%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine November 7, 2011 35.0% 33.2% 13.1% 18.7%
China Times November 7, 2011 42.3% 39.1% 9.7% 8.9%
China Times November 8, 2011 42.0% 39.3% 9.3% 9.4%
Liberty Times November 1, 2011 33.58% 32.97% 11.17% 22.27%
China Times November 1, 2011 41.4% 38.5% 10.3% 9.8%
TVBS News November 10, 2011 39% 38% 9% 14%
China Times November 10, 2011 41.6% 38.1% 10.7% 9.6%
China Times November 11, 2011 41.6% 38.3% 9.5% 10.6%
United Daily News Archived 2011-11-14 at the Wayback Machine November 12, 2011 41% 36% 9% 13%
China Times November 14, 2011 41.2% 39.0% 9.4% 10.4%
China Times November 15, 2011 42.4% 38.1% 9.5% 10.0%
TVBS News November 16, 2011 39% 39% 9% 12%
China Times November 16, 2011 43.3% 37.9% 9.1% 9.7%
China Times November 17, 2011 43.4% 37.6% 9.4% 9.6%
Taipei University of Education November 18, 2011 37.2% 30.2% 7.7% 24.9%
China Times November 18, 2011 43.2% 37.6% 10.0% 9.2%
Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine November 18, 2011 38.7% 39.6% 11.7% 10.0%
Decision Making Research November 20, 2011 33.5% 40.1% 11.2% 15.2%
China Times November 21, 2011 44.7% 36.8% 9.7% 8.8%
China Times November 22, 2011 43.6% 38.7% 9.8% 7.9%
Liberty Times November 23, 2011 33.39% 35.79% 9.80% 21.02%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine November 23, 2011 39.0% 35.8% 9.9% 14.8%
China Times November 23, 2011 42.0% 39.8% 9.4% 8.8%
TVBS News November 23, 2011 40% 38% 7% 15%
China Times November 24, 2011 40.7% 40.3% 10.3% 8.7%
China Times November 25, 2011 42.6% 39.2% 9.3% 8.9%
United Daily News Archived 2011-12-01 at the Wayback Machine November 27, 2011 41% 35% 10% 14%
China Times November 28, 2011 42.7% 37.6% 9.5% 10.2%
YouGov Market Research November 28, 2011 34% 26% 10% 30%
China Times November 29, 2011 43.0% 35.2% 8.4% 13.4%
China Times November 30, 2011 41.8% 35.1% 8.3% 14.8%
Focus Survey and Research November 30, 2011 36.7% 32.1% 10.0% 21.2%
TVBS News December 1, 2011 40% 34% 7% 19%
China Times December 2, 2011 43.5% 36.1% 7.0% 13.4%
China Times December 2, 2011 43.4% 37.5% 7.7% 11.4%
TVBS News December 3, 2011 38% 32% 12% 18%
United Daily News Archived 2011-12-06 at the Wayback Machine December 3, 2011 39% 32% 10% 17%
Apple Daily December 3, 2011 47.04% 36.90% 12.11% 3.95%
China Times December 3, 2011 39.9% 32.6% 8.9% 18.6%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-02-26 at the Wayback Machine December 5, 2011 39.0% 32.9% 7.0% 21.2%
China Times December 5, 2011 43.7% 37.2% 8.3% 10.8%
Shih Hsin University December 5, 2011 33.9% 28.6% 8.3% 30.7%
China Times December 6, 2011 42.0% 36.9% 9.8% 11.3%
China Times December 7, 2011 43.2% 36.3% 9.0% 11.5%
Taipei University of Education December 7, 2011 35.5% 27.7% 7.2% 29.6%
TVBS News December 7, 2011 41% 37% 8% 14%
Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine December 8, 2011 35.4% 35.9% 10.8% 17.9%
China Times December 8, 2011 43.9% 35.9% 8.9% 11.3%
China Times December 9, 2011 43.2% 36.4% 8.7% 11.7%
TVBS News December 10, 2011 39% 39% 6% 16%
China Times December 10, 2011 42.7% 35.1% 7.1% 15.1%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine December 10, 2011 40% 33% 10% 16%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine December 12, 2011 42% 35% 10% 13%
China Times December 12, 2011 41.3% 36.8% 8.4% 13.5%
Focus Survey and Research December 12, 2011 36.3% 36.0% 5.9% 20.1%
China Times December 13, 2011 40.1% 39.1% 8.0% 12.8%
TVBS News December 14, 2011 40% 38% 7% 15%
China Times December 14, 2011 39.7% 38.7% 8.2% 13.4%
Liberty Times December 15, 2011 34.50% 33.26% 10.81% 21.43%
China Times December 15, 2011 41.8% 37.1% 8.2% 13.8%
China Times December 16, 2011 41.8% 36.7% 8.2% 14.2%
TVBS News December 17, 2011 40% 36% 7% 17%
China Times December 17, 2011 38.5% 37.7% 7.7% 16%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine December 17, 2011 41% 33% 10% 15%
China Times December 19, 2011 41.9% 37.3% 7.2% 13.6%
Focus Survey and Research December 19, 2011 36.5% 33.4% 8.5% 21.6%
China Times December 20, 2011 42.2% 36.8% 7.4% 13.6%
China Times December 21, 2011 42.3% 37.1% 6.6% 14.0%
Taipei University of Education December 21, 2011 40.2% 32.2% 5.5% 22.1%
China Times December 22, 2011 42.3% 36.0% 7.0% 14.7%
Liberty Times December 22, 2011 35.77% 35.05% 9.70% 19.48%
TVBS December 22, 2011 41% 35% 8% 16%
China Times December 23, 2011 42.2% 36.2% 6.8% 14.8%
Master Survey and Research December 24, 2011 39.5% 39.1% 11.1% 10.3%
Decision Making Research Archived 2012-02-03 at the Wayback Machine December 24, 2011 38.3% 40.4% 7.3% 14.0%
China Times December 26, 2011 41.3% 37.1% 7.5% 14.1%
China Times December 26, 2011 41.6% 36.8% 6.8% 14.8%
Trendspotting Survey and Research December 26, 2011 33.3% 29.0% 7.0% 30.7%
TVBS News December 27, 2011 44% 38% 6% 12%
China Times December 27, 2011 40.7% 38.0% 7.7% 13.6%
China Times December 28, 2011 41.3% 38.5% 6.6% 13.6%
TVBS News December 29, 2011 44% 35% 7% 13%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-01-09 at the Wayback Machine December 29, 2011 37.6% 31.5% 6.6% 24.4%
Focus Survey and Research December 30, 2011 35.9% 32.6% 7.3% 24.4%
Taipei University of Education December 30, 2011 42.2% 35.7% 6.2% 15.9%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-02-25 at the Wayback Machine December 31, 2011 37.1% 33.3% 6.9% 22.7%
Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine December 31, 2011 38.8% 37.8% 11.6% 11.8%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-17 at the Wayback Machine January 1, 2011 37.2% 33.1% 7.2% 22.5%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-08 at the Wayback Machine January 2, 2012 44% 36% 7% 13%
China Times January 2, 2012 39.5 36.5% 5.8% 18.2%
Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-17 at the Wayback Machine January 2, 2012 37.2% 33.1% 7.2% 22.5%
TVBS News January 2, 2012 45% 37% 6% 13%
China Times January 2, 2012 43.3% 38.4% 6.8% 11.5%

Television debates performance rating

Note that the percentages reflect the proportion of valid respondents who rated a particular candidate as performing the best during the presidential and vice-presidential television debates.

Presidential debates

Forecast Source Date of Release Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen James Soong Undecided
China Times December 3, 2011 31.7% 29.8% 13.6% 24.9%
Apple Daily December 3, 2011 47.61% 35.49% 14.37% 2.53%
United Daily News Archived 2011-12-06 at the Wayback Machine December 3, 2011 39% 25% 15% 6%
TVBS News December 3, 2011 30% 27% 20% 23%
Shih Hsin University December 3, 2011 30.5% 31.0% 14.5% 24.1%
China Times December 17, 2011 29.1% 32.1% 12.5% 26.3%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine December 17, 2011 36% 29% 17% 4%
TVBS News December 17, 2011 28% 33% 15% 24%
Focus Survey and Research December 19, 2011 33.9% 37.7% 14.1% 14.3%
I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2020-08-03 at the Wayback Machine December 20, 2011 40.10% 50.61% 9.29% －

Vice-presidential debates

Forecast Source Date of Release Wu Den-yih Su Jia-chyuan Lin Ruey-shiung Undecided
China Times December 10, 2011 35.3% 33.7% 4.4% 26.6%
TVBS News December 10, 2011 38% 39% 6% 17%
United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine December 10, 2011 40% 30% 9% 5%
Focus Survey and Research December 12, 2011 33.8% 38.4% 6.5% 21.3%

Election forecasting

Polling firm forecasts

Forecast Source Date of Release Voter Turnout Tsai Ing-wen Ma Ying-jeou James Soong
Global Views Survey and Research June 15, 2011 75.3% 51.8% 48.2% —
Global Views Survey and Research June 22, 2011 — 53.2% 46.8% —
Democratic Progressive Party July 27, 2011 75% 50.1% 49.9% —
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 2011 — 53% 47% —
Global Views Survey and Research October 12, 2011 — 52% 48% —
China Times November 1, 2011 — 41% 47% 12%
Gallup Market Research November 6, 2011 — 43.1% 44.2% 12.8%
China Times November 10, 2011 — 42.2% 46.0% 11.8%
TVBS News November 10, 2011 76.8% 47.3% 45.8% 6.9%
Gallup Market Research Archived 2011-12-02 at the Wayback Machine December 1, 2011 － 42.16% 46.13% 11.71%
TVBS News December 7, 2011 78.9% 47% 48% 5%
Gallup Market Research Archived 2012-04-21 at the Wayback Machine December 14, 2011 － 41.6% 48.2% 10.3%
TVBS News December 22, 2011 80.3% 46% 48% 6%
TVBS News December 29, 2011 77.9% 45% 50% 5%
Democratic Progressive Party January 2, 2012 79% 48% 47% 5%

Prediction market forecasts

Note that as the election forecast reports released by the National Chengchi University are based on models that involve the use of prediction markets as raw data, as opposed to opinion polling, the percentages may not add up to 100%.[2]

Forecast Source Date of Release Tsai Ing-wen Ma Ying-jeou James Soong
National Chengchi University April 27, 2011 50.5% 49.9% —
National Chengchi University May 4, 2011 50.6% 47.9% —
National Chengchi University May 20, 2011 51.3% 48.0% —
National Chengchi University June 13, 2011 50.9% 48.4% —
National Chengchi University August 1, 2011 46.8% 49.4% —
National Chengchi University August 8, 2011 46.3% 48.2% —
National Chengchi University August 15, 2011 45.7% 48.5% —
National Chengchi University August 29, 2011 49.4% 50.3% —
National Chengchi University September 9, 2011 47.9% 51.4% —
National Chengchi University September 27, 2011 47.2% 49.5% —
National Chengchi University October 11, 2011 46.2% 51.5% —
National Chengchi University October 21, 2011 49.2% 49.6% —
National Chengchi University October 26, 2011 49.6% 49.6% —
National Chengchi University November 1, 2011 48.9% 48.4% 4.4%
National Chengchi University November 7, 2011 49.5% 48.3% 7.5%
National Chengchi University November 11, 2011 49.9% 46.1% 7.5%
National Chengchi University November 15, 2011 49.5% 46.1% 8.4%
National Chengchi University November 17, 2011 50.0% 46.1% 8.1%
National Chengchi University November 22, 2011 48.6% 44.1% 8.2%
National Chengchi University November 28, 2011 50.0% 43.2% 10.1%
National Chengchi University December 2, 2011 49.9% 41.9% 11.7%
National Chengchi University December 4, 2011 50.1% 42.1% 10.8%
National Chengchi University December 7, 2011 50.1% 42.6% 11.2%
National Chengchi University December 11, 2011 50.3% 41.6% 10.9%
National Chengchi University December 16, 2011 51.7% 41.4% 9.1%
National Chengchi University December 18, 2011 51.9% 41.6% 8.6%
National Chengchi University December 21, 2011 51.3% 42.0% 8.3%
National Chengchi University Archived 2012-02-22 at the Wayback Machine December 26, 2011 50.4% 43.0% 7.7%
National Chengchi University Archived 2012-02-22 at the Wayback Machine December 29, 2011 50.5% 44.1% 7.4%
National Chengchi University January 2, 2012 50.3% 43.6% 10.1%
National Chengchi University January 3, 2012 49.8% 42.6% 10.7%

Election forecast maps

Forecast Source National Chengchi University National Chengchi University National Chengchi University
Date of Release September 9, 2011 September 27, 2011 November 11, 2011
Forecast Map
Date of Release November 17, 2011 December 16, 2011 December 21, 2011
Forecast Map
Forecast Source National Chengchi University[permanent dead link‍] National Chengchi University[permanent dead link‍] National Chengchi University[permanent dead link‍]
Date of Release December 26, 2011 January 2, 2012 January 3, 2012
Forecast Map
Legend
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Tsai Ing-Wen is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Ma Ying-Jeou is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where James Soong is forecast to lead.

References

  1. ^ Stewart, Chris (December 23, 2006). "Gallup vs Gallup Taiwan". Taipei Times. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  2. ^ The Exchange of Future Events, The Center for Prediction Markets, National Chengchi University, November 17, 2011


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