Hurricane Rafael was the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico on record, tied with 1985's Hurricane Kate.[1] The seventeenth named storm, eleventh hurricane, and fifth major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season,[2] Rafael formed on November 4, 2024 from an area of low-pressure spawned by a Central American gyre. Steady organization occurred throughout the next two days, with Rafael becoming a hurricane early on November 6, as it moved northwest towards Cuba. Favorable conditions enabled the cyclone to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 3 major hurricane later that day before landfall in Cuba. Then, after weakening some while over land, it entered the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensified to a major hurricane once again at peak intensity early on November 8. Hostile conditions, including wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures, caused the hurricane to rapidly weaken afterward, falling below hurricane intensity later that day, and eventually degenerating into a remnant low on November 10. The circulation opened up into a trough the next day.
Two deaths have been confirmed in Jamaica as a result of flooding caused by Rafael. Additionally, at least five deaths in Panama occurred due to heavy flooding and landslides produced by Rafael's precursor disturbance, along with one death in Colombia. Preliminary damages are estimated to be at least US$345.1 million.
Meteorological history
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
On October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the southwestern Caribbean in anticipation of tropical development.[3] Several days later, on November 1, a broad area of low pressure developed over the southwestern Caribbean,[4] associated with a Central American gyre.[5] The disturbance initially remained disorganized, but began showing signs of organization on November 3. That afternoon, Air Force Hurricane Hunters collected data showing that the system had developed a closed center but that deep convection had not yet become organized enough for it to be declared a tropical depression. Due to the disturbance's impending threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, the NHC designated the developing storm Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.[6] The following day, data from the Hurricane Hunters, satellite imagery, and surface observations revealed that the disturbance had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep convection; it was accordingly upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen the morning of November 4.[7]
At the time, the newly-formed cyclone was located about 195 mi (310 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.[8] Amid favorable conditions, including warmer than average sea surface temperatures of 30 °C (86 °F),[9] the depression continued to strengthen and became Tropical Storm Rafael that afternoon.[10][11]
The storm tracked northwestward along the southwestern side of a ridge over the western Atlantic on November 5,[12] and passed to the west of Jamaica.[13] That afternoon it developed an inner wind core,[12] and strengthened into a hurricane early on November 6.[14]Rapid intensification ensued throughout the morning as a small eye became visible, with Rafael becoming a Category 3 major hurricane that afternoon as it neared Cuba,[15] eventually making landfall in the province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana, at 21:15 UTC on November 6, with sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h).[16] A few hours later, the system entered the Gulf of Mexico as a weaker Category 2 hurricane.[17] It then proceeded to turn west-northwestward and re-intensify, becoming a major hurricane once again early on November 8 with peak winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).[18]
Later that afternoon, however, the system turned westward and began losing strength and organization due to increasing westerly wind shear and dry air intrusion.[19] This trend continued, and Rafael was downgraded to a tropical storm late that same day.[20] By late the following day, the storm's convection was limited to the northeast of an exposed and broad low-level center.[21] On November 10, Rafael's remaining convection collapsed, and it degenerated into a remnant low while drifting over the central Gulf,[22] before opening up into a trough on the next day. The remnant trough continued meandering until dissipating early on November 13.
Preparations
Panama
On November 2, the Government of Panama issued a red warning from Chiriquí to Veraguas. Panama's emergency services agency asked residents and tourists to pay attention to weather warnings issued by authorities and noted the threat of heavy rain and strong waves. Several yellow alerts, signifying the threat of the impending weather, were issued for the western portion of the nation.[23]Colón, Coclé, and Kuna Yala had red warnings declared for them.[24] Classes were suspended in five provinces, while the government opened nine emergency shelters.[25]
Jamaica
Once the precursor to Rafael was designated as a potential tropical cyclone, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica.[26] Two matches in the Jamaica Premier League, originally scheduled for November 4, were postponed.[27] Additionally, several matches in the Manning Cup had to be delayed due to the storm.[28] The University of the West Indies closed all clinics and non-emergency services due to the storm.[29]
Cayman Islands
Rafael at its initial peak intensity approaching Cuba on November 6
At the time Rafael's precursor was designated as a potential tropical cyclone on November 3, a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands.[26] The following morning, the watch covering the Cayman Islands was replaced with a Hurricane Warning.[30] Due to the storm, all government schools and the University College of the Cayman Islands were closed on November 5.[31]Cayman Airways confirmed that their fleet had been secured.[32] The Cayman Islands Regiment deployed to Cayman Brac and Little Cayman for the first time. Eight were sent to Little Cayman, and ten were sent to Cayman Brac.[33] Sandbags were made available for the residents of Cayman Brac and Grand Cayman.[34] Shelters were also opened in Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.[35] Several government offices closed in preparation for Rafael.[36] The Cayman Islands' Bankers Association closed all banks on November 5.[37]
Cuba
A hurricane watch went into effect for six eastern provinces of Cuba on November 4.[8] The provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas saw a tropical storm warning go into effect.[38] Due to the system's expected impacts, over 66,000 people were evacuated from Guantánamo province.[39] Additionally, several flights were cancelled, and maritime traffic between Batabanó and Nueva Gerona was suspended.[40] Classes were suspended in multiple provinces with transportation services halted in multiple towns in Western Cuba, including the capital city Havana.[41] Rafael approached as the country was still recovering from a country-wide power blackout and the effects of Hurricane Oscar, which struck the eastern part of Cuba about two weeks earlier.[13] More than 283,000 people evacuated ahead of the storm, including 98,300 from Havana.[1]
A tropical storm watch was issued on November 4 for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the west of the Channel 5 Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.[10] On November 5, the watch was upgraded to a tropical storm warning for the lower and middle Florida Keys.[43] As a precaution, schools in Monroe County were closed on November 6.[44]
In Panama, rains from the incipient disturbance of Rafael damaged several homes, leaving a total of more than 1,097 displaced.[45][46] About 100 people were housed in shelters.[25] At least five people died in the nation as a result, with another two remaining missing.[47][48] More than 200 families were affected by the rains in Herrera and Los Santos Provinces.[49] Damages in Panama totaled to at least USD$110 million.[50]
Additionally, interaction between the disturbance and the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone caused flooding in Costa Rica.[51] This resulted in a bridge collapse and 42 people needing to be rescued in Guanacaste Province.[52] Agricultural losses in Costa Rica totaled to at least ₡500 million (USD$985,000).[53]
Colombia
In Colombia, Rafael's precursor caused torrential rainfall in the Santa Marta area. Rockslides occurred and several cars were swept away by floodwaters. Some homes also sustained damage, with two of them destroyed. One person also suffered from minor injuries. Multiple structures were declared at risk of collapse.[54] In La Guajira Department, one person drowned,[55] 192,465 people and 38,493 families were affected,[56] with multiple streams overflowing resulting in numerous roads and houses being flooded.[57] The government of Colombia spent 700 billion pesos (USD$160.8 million) to attend to the communities affected by the storm.[58]
Jamaica
Officials in Jamaica blamed persistent rains ahead of the potential storm for a large landslide on November 3, which left several rural communities isolated.[10] Heavy rains from Rafael caused several road blockages, with garbage propelled by the storm blocking a road in Saint Andrew Parish and a landslide blocking another road in Saint Catherine Parish.[59] At the latter parish, two people were found dead in a vehicle that was swept away by the floods.[60] Several of Jamaica's southern parishes received over 3 in (76 mm) of rainfall.[61] Rainfall from Rafael exacerbated flooding in Troja district, causing several fords to break away throughout the area.[62] The storm caused flooding and landslides and knocked the nation's power grid offline.[63][64] Preliminary damage estimate in the country according to prime minister Andrew Holness is J$500 million to J$1 billion (USD$31.6–63.2 million).[a][65]
Cayman Islands
Torrential rainfall from Rafael caused the islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac to lose power.[32] Grand Cayman saw rough seas and flooding from Rafael. Power lines and trees were downed on Little Cayman, with roads covered with sand and debris.[32][66] Additionally, multiple dive boats sank off the coast of Little Cayman.[67] Cayman Brac saw numerous trees uprooted and significant shingle damage,[68] with multiple docks and power lines also being damaged.[69]
November 7, ERCC overview map showing the impact of Hurricane Rafael in Cuba and Jamaica
Rafael's strong winds caused an island-wide power-grid failure.[70][71] In western Cuba, 300 mm (12 in) of rain was reported, resulting in flooding and landslides.[72] Government officials reported that areas in and around Artemisa sustained the worst damage from Rafael.[73][74] In Artemisa, 2,825 homes were damaged, in addition to hospitals, schools, and service centers. Nearly 40,000 acres of crops were either damaged or lost. In neighboring Mayabeque, 441 homes were damaged, and agriculture was badly affected.[73][75][76] Rafael passed about 30 mi (48 km) west of Havana, with sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) being recorded, along with gusts of up to 71 mph (114 km/h).[2] Rainfall from the hurricane flooded several neighborhoods in Centro Habana and Old Havana.[77] Numerous homes and public buildings were damaged, trees were uprooted, and telephone poles toppled.[73][78] Preliminary estimates for the damages caused by Rafael are in the billions of pesos (USD$41.7 million).[79]
United States
While Rafael did not approach the U.S. Gulf Coast, it did churn up rip currents along much of the coast on November 9 and 10.[80][81] In addition, Rafael impacted the Florida Keys with up to 2 in (51 mm) of rain and gusts up to 53 mph (85 km/h).[82] However, no significant damages were reported.[83]
^Berg, Robbie (October 26, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 10, 2024. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
^Beven, John (November 1, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 27, 2024. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
^Cangialosi, John; Kelly, Larry (November 4, 2024). Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
^Kelly, Larry (November 4, 2024). Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 29, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
^Papin, Philippe; Hagen, Andrew (November 5, 2024). Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 10, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
^Beven, John; Hagen, Andrew (November 6, 2024). Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 10, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
^Cangialosi, John (November 8, 2024). Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 22 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 8, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
^Beven, John (November 8, 2024). Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 23 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 9, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
^Beven, John (November 9, 2024). Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 10, 2024. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
^Malcolm, Dans (November 6, 2024). "'It's terrible, terrible'". Jamaica Observer. Archived from the original on November 11, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
