In macroeconomics, hard currency, safe-haven currency, or strong currency is any globally tradedcurrency that serves as a reliable and stable store of value. Factors contributing to a currency's hard status might include the stability and reliability of the respective state's legal and bureaucratic institutions, level of corruption, long-term stability of its purchasing power, the associated country's political and fiscal condition and outlook, and the policy posture of the issuing central bank.
Safe haven currency is defined as a currency which behaves like a hedge for a reference portfolio of risky assets conditional on movements in global risk aversion.[1] Conversely, a weak or soft currency is one which is expected to fluctuate erratically or depreciate against other currencies. Softness is typically the result of weak legal institutions and/or political or fiscal instability. junk currency is also even less trusted than soft currency and have a very low currency value. These countries experience sharp falls in value all the time.
The US dollar (USD) has been considered a strong currency for much of its history. Despite the Nixon shock of 1971, and the United States' growing fiscal and trade deficits, most of the world's monetary systems have been tied to the US dollar due to the Bretton Woods system and dollarization. Countries have thus been compelled to purchase dollars for their foreign exchange reserves, denominate their commodities in dollars for foreign trade, or even use dollars domestically, thus buoying the currency's value.
The euro (EUR) has also been considered a hard currency for much of its short history. However, the European sovereign debt crisis has partially eroded that confidence.
The Swiss franc (CHF) has long been considered a hard currency, and in fact was the last paper currency in the world to terminate its convertibility to gold on 1 May 2000, following a referendum.[9][10] In the summer of 2011, the European sovereign debt crisis led to rapid flows out of the euro and into the franc by those seeking hard currency, causing the latter to appreciate rapidly. On 6 September 2011, the Swiss National Bank announced that it would buy an "unlimited" number of euros to fix an exchange rate at 1.00 EUR = 1.20 CHF, to protect its trade. This action temporarily eliminated the franc's hard currency advantage over the euro but was abandoned in January 2015.
The Japanese yen used to be a hard currency. However, it is now regarded as a junk currency due to the sharp decline in the currency's value since 2022.[11][12][13][14] For this reason, many exchange offices don’t handle the Japanese yen.[15] The impact of this junk currencyisation has also led to a series of moves by even Japanese companies to cease trading in Japanese yen.[16]
Demand
Investors as well as ordinary people generally prefer hard currencies to soft currencies at times of increased inflation (or, more precisely, times of increased inflation differentials between countries), at times of heightened political or military risk, or when they feel that one or more government-imposed exchange rates are unrealistic. There may be regulatory reasons for preferring to invest outside one's home currency, e.g. the local currency may be subject to capital controls which makes it difficult to spend it outside the host nation.
For example, during the Cold War, the ruble in the Soviet Union was not a hard currency because it could not be easily spent outside the Soviet Union and because the exchange rates were fixed at artificially high levels for persons with hard currency, such as Western tourists. (The Soviet government also imposed severe limits on how many rubles could be exchanged by Soviet citizens for hard currencies.) After the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the ruble depreciated rapidly, while the purchasing power of the US dollar was more stable, making it a harder currency than the ruble. A tourist could get 200 rubles per US dollar in June 1992, and 500 ruble per dollar in November 1992.
In some cases, an economy may choose to abandon local currency altogether and adopt another country's currency as legal tender. Examples include the adoption of the US dollar in Panama, Ecuador, El Salvador and Zimbabwe and the adoption of the German mark and later the euro in Serbia and Montenegro.
^Habib, Maurizio M.; Stracca, Livio (2012-05-01). "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?". Journal of International Economics. Symposium on the Global Dimensions of the Financial Crisis. 87 (1): 50–64. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.12.005. hdl:10419/153722. S2CID55678634.
^"日本円が「ジャンク通貨」に？ ロシアや新興国通貨よりも価値下落：朝日新聞デジタル" [Will the Japanese yen become a "junk currency"? Decrease in value compared to Russian and emerging market currencies]. 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2022-09-02. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
^"円安で日本円は"ジャンク通貨"になった 海外両替所に日本円の表示がないことも" [The depreciation of the yen has turned the Japanese yen into a "junk currency". Overseas currency exchange offices may not display Japanese yen.]. マネーポストWEB (in Japanese). 2022-08-25. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
