2023 New South Wales state election

2023 New South Wales state election
← 2019 25 March 2023 2027 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,521,688
Turnout4,861,148 (88.04%)
(Decrease2.96 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Fundraising function for Mr Edmond Atalla MP, State Member for Member for Mount Druitt, with then NSW Opposition Leader, Mr Chris Minns MP (cropped).jpg
CEBIT Australia - Day 2, The Hon Dominic Perrottet MP (1) (cropped) v2 b.jpg
Leader Chris Minns Dominic Perrottet No leader
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 4 June 2021 5 October 2021 N/A
Leader's seat Kogarah Epping N/A
Last election 36 seats, 33.31% 48 seats, 41.58% 3 seats, 9.57%
Seats before 36[a] 45[b] 3
Seats won 45 36 3
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 12 Steady
First-preference vote 1,738,081 1,663,215 455,960
Percentage 36.97% 35.37% 9.70%
Swing Increase 3.66 Decrease 6.21 Increase 0.13
TPP 54.26% 45.74%
TPP swing Increase 6.29 Decrease 6.29
Premier before election

Dominic Perrottet
Liberal

Subsequent Premier

Chris Minns
Labor

The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, but was defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election.

The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history.[1]

It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition.[2]

The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat that had last been achieved in 2007.[3][4]

Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. Labor however was able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper, and Joe McGirr, who guaranteed Labor confidence and supply.[5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, having previously served as a deputy speaker.[6]

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW local council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.[7]

Background

Previous election

See also: 2019 New South Wales state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

See also: Members of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, 2019–2023

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier on the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[9]

On 1 October 2021 Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her relationship with the former member of Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.[10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election.[12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election.[13]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[15][16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[18]

In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrottet to portray himself as increasingly moderate.[21][22]

On 29 March 2022 the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.[23][24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.

On 20 October 2022 Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party[25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.[26]

From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition.[27]

Possibility of a hung parliament

It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority.[28]

Campaign

On 12 January Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.[29][30] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.[31][32] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.[33]

On 5 March 2023, the NSW Labor Party held their official campaign launch.[34]

On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day.[35]

On 11 March the Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives.[36]

On 12 March the Liberal Party held their official campaign launch.[37][38]

On 14 March confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government.[39] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.

On 21 March it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services.[40][41][42]

Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats.[43]

Policies

In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services.[44]

Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling,[45] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots).[46][47] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW,[48] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed.[49]

One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights.[50]

NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution,[51][52] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate.[53]

A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023.[54]

A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023.[55][56]

A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023.[57]

2023 New South Wales state election debates
Date Organizers Moderators  P  Present References
Perrottet Minns
9 February
05:30 AEDT 		2GB Radio Sydney Ben Fordham P P [58]
8 March
12:00 AEDT 		Seven News/Channel 7 Amelia Brace P P [54]
15 March
12:00 AEDT 		Nine News/Channel 9
Sydney Morning Herald 		Peter Overton P P
22 March
19:30 AEDT 		Sky News Australia
Daily Telegraph 		Kieran Gilbert P P [59]

Redistribution

Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[60]

In November 2020 the proposed redistribution names and boundaries were released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[61]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba was abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney was created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[61]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[61]

The Liberal-held Heathcote took in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and became a notionally marginal Labor seat.[62]

Current seat 2019 election New seat 2021 redistribution
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 18.68 Kellyville Liberal Notional 23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote Labor Notional 1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 20.52 Wahroonga Liberal Notional 19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 22.42 Abolished
New seat Leppington Labor Notional 1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek Liberal Notional 9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills Liberal Notional 5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[63] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Results

Winning party by electorate.

Legislative Assembly

Main article: Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly)
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)[64][65][66][67]
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,738,081 36.97 +3.66 45 Increase 9
    Liberal 1,259,253 26.78 –5.21 25 Decrease 10
  National 403,962 8.59 –1.00 11 Decrease 2
Coalition total 1,663,215 35.37 –6.21 36 Decrease 12
  Greens 455,960 9.70 +0.13 3 Steady
  Sustainable Australia 104,697 2.23 +0.69 0 Steady
  One Nation 84,683 1.80 +0.70 0 Steady
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 73,359 1.56 –1.90 0 Decrease 3
  Legalise Cannabis 60,057 1.28 +1.28 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 51,548 1.10 –0.42 0 Steady
  Liberal Democrats 39,480 0.84 +0.61 0 Steady
  Informed Medical Options 11,529 0.25 +0.25 0 Steady
  Public Education 4,150 0.09 +0.09 0 Steady
  Small Business 2,025 0.04 −0.03 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 1,464 0.03 +0.00 0 Steady
  Independents 411,682 8.76 +3.98 9 Increase 6
 Formal votes 4,701,930 96.72 +0.18 – –
 Informal votes 159,218 3.28 −0.18 – –
 Total 4,861,148 – – 93 –
 Registered voters / turnout 5,521,688 88.04 −2.96 – –
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor 2,202,922 54.27 +6.29
Coalition 1,856,227 45.73 –6.29

Seats changing hands

Italics denotes MPs who did not contest at this election.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bankstown One Nation Tania Mihailuk[c] 20.5 –0.1 to LIB 20.3 Jihad Dib Labor
Camden Liberal Peter Sidgreaves 7.3 10.3 3.0 Sally Quinnell Labor
Drummoyne Independent John Sidoti[d] 13.6 –12.6 to ALP 1.0 Stephanie Di Pasqua Liberal
East Hills Liberal Wendy Lindsay 0.1 1.8 1.7 Kylie Wilkinson Labor
Heathcote[e] Liberal Lee Evans −1.7 8.3 9.9 Maryanne Stuart Labor
Monaro National Nichole Overall 11.6 13.9 2.3 Steve Whan Labor
Parramatta Liberal Geoff Lee 6.5 15.0 8.6 Donna Davis Labor
Penrith Liberal Stuart Ayres 0.6 2.2 1.6 Karen McKeown Labor
Riverstone Liberal Kevin Conolly 6.2 9.9 3.7 Warren Kirby Labor
South Coast Liberal Shelley Hancock 10.6 14.3 3.8 Liza Butler Labor
Wakehurst Liberal Brad Hazzard 21.9 N/A 4.5 Michael Regan Independent
Wollondilly Liberal Nathaniel Smith 6.0 7.6 1.5 Judy Hannan Independent

The statewide swing against the Coalition (and the swing to Labor) was highly concentrated in Sydney (particularly in Western Sydney) and on the South Coast. The Nationals lost just one seat (Monaro) and had swings against them in several National strongholds on the Mid North Coast and in the New South Wales countryside. No seats north of the Central Coast changed hands. Both Coalition parties ran candidates in the electorates of Port Macquarie (held by National-turned-Liberal MP Leslie Williams) and Wagga Wagga (held by independent member Joe McGirr). In Port Macquarie (which is a conservative seat even by regional standards), both Coalition parties made the two-party-preferred contest and Williams was re-elected as a Liberal. In Wagga Wagga, McGirr easily defeated the Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest.

Ultimately Labor gained four seats from the Coalition (Camden, Monaro, Parramatta and South Coast) due to swings of over 10 percentage points toward Labor and one seat (Riverstone) due to a swing of over 10 points against the Coalition on first-preference votes. On two-party-preferred measures Labor received a swing against them in five of their own seats (Bankstown, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Shellharbour and Summer Hill), as well as in eight Coalition-held seats (Albury, Badgerys Creek, Bathurst, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes and Upper Hunter). The swing in Liverpool was 9.0 points to the Liberals, bucking the trend set by several other Sydney seats where swings against the Liberals were close to or larger than this.

Despite winning many federal seats in Sydney in 2022, only one teal independent (Judy Hannan in Wollondilly) won a seat at this election. This is likely due to optional preferential voting in New South Wales, meaning voters only need to number one box on the ballot paper (but can choose to number more), as preferences were vital for teal successes at the federal election. However, independents not affiliated with Climate 200 did win several seats; Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan gained the seat of Wakehurst from the Liberal Party and several other independents retained their seats (including the SFF-turned-independent members for Barwon, Orange and Murray, as well as the independent members of Lake Macquarie, Sydney and Wagga Wagga). Gareth Ward, a suspended Liberal MP turned independent, successfully held on to his seat of Kiama. The seat of Drummoyne (held by fellow suspended-Liberal-turned-independent John Sidoti, who did not seek re-election) was won by the Liberal challenger Stephanie Di Pasqua, technically retaining the seat for the Coalition,[f] despite a 12.1% swing to Labor on two-party-preferred preferences.

All three seats held by the Greens were retained, although the party did not gain any seats. They did, however, finish second to Labor in Summer Hill. The seat of Balmain had a swing to Labor on two-party-preferred measures, while the Greens had swings to them in the two-party-preferred contests in their other two seats; Ballina (against the Nationals) and Newtown (against Labor).

One Nation, despite having a statewide swing to them, failed to win as many votes as predicted. However, the party finished second to Labor in Cessnock, a seat where the National Party candidate was disendorsed during the campaign for sexist and racist social media posts.[68]

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had a statewide swing against them. While they did formerly hold three seats (Barwon, Orange and Murray), the members for these seats defected and became independents over disagreements with the party's leader, Robert Borsak.

On 8 April, two weeks after the election, Liberal Jordan Lane was declared the winner in Ryde, by just 50 votes over Labor candidate Lyndal Howison.[69] This was the last seat to be called, while also ending up as the most marginal seat post-election, sitting at just 0.01% for the Coalition. A recount was held on 15 April 2023, increasing the Liberal lead to 54 votes.[70]

Legislative Council

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Council) § Results.[edit]
Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 209,858 – (CV)[71][72][73][74]
Party Votes % Swing 2023 seats 2019 seats Total seats Change
  Labor 1,690,445 36.61 +6.93 8 7 15 Increase 1
  Liberal/National joint ticket 1,374,857 29.78 –5.04 7 8 15 Decrease 2
  Greens 419,346 9.08 –0.64 2 2 4 Increase 1
  One Nation 273,496 5.92 –0.97 1 2 3 Increase 1
  Legalise Cannabis 169,482 3.67 +3.67 1 0 1 Increase 1
  Liberal Democrats 162,755 3.53 +1.35 1 0 1 Increase 1
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 144,043 3.12 –2.42 1 1 2 Steady
  Animal Justice 101,183 2.19 +0.24 0 1 1 Decrease 1
  Elizabeth Farrelly Independents 61,163 1.32 −0.51 0 0 0 Steady
  Family First 58,361 1.26 +1.26 0 0 0 Steady
  Sustainable Australia 42,902 0.93 –0.53 0 0 0 Steady
  Australia One 35,888 0.78 +0.78 0 0 0 Steady
  Public Education 34,523 0.75 +0.75 0 0 0 Steady
  Informed Medical Options 21,362 0.46 +0.46 0 0 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 17,056 0.37 +0.05 0 0 0 Steady
  United Australia 3,891 0.08 +0.08 0 0 0 Steady
  Revive Australia 2,507 0.05 +0.05 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Independent 1,356 0.03 +0.03 0 0 0 Steady
  Ungrouped 965 0.02 +0.02 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Call To Freedom 722 0.02 +0.02 0 0 0 Steady
  Christians For Community 306 0.01 +0.01 0 0 0 Steady
  Socialist Equality 249 0.01 +0.01 0 0 0 Steady
 Formal votes 4,616,858 94.31 +0.66 – – – –
 Informal votes 278,477 5.69 −0.66 – – – –
Total 4,895,335 100.00 – 21 21 42 –
 Registered voters / turnout 5,521,688 88.66 −0.78 – – – –

Electoral pendulums

Pre-election pendulum

Main article: Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[75] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[g] NAT 0.5%[h]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall[i] NAT 11.6%[j]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND) LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND) LIB 13.6%
Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 0.1%
Leppington new seat ALP 1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB) ALP 1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 3.0%
Bega Michael Holland[k] ALP 5.1%[l]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li[m] ALP 5.2%[n]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.3%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton (IND) SFF 2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 4.9% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler (IND) SFF 6.6% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND) SFF 15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 23.2% v ALP

Post-election pendulum

This is the post-election pendulum, based on the preliminary results of the election.[76]

Labor seats (45)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.7%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.3% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinell ALP 3.0%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.8%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.7%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.9%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.3%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.3% v GRN
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND
Very Safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.7%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 19.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP 19.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP 20.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24.0%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.2%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1%[o]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4%
Pittwater Rory Amon LIB 0.7% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 4.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.7% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 8.0%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.8%
Safe
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB 10.8% v NAT[p]
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 11.0%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.9% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 13.8%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB 13.9%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.3%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.8%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.6%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 33.8%
Crossbench seats (12)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Kiama Gareth Ward IND 0.8% v ALP
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.5% v LIB
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.5% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.6% v ALP
Barwon Roy Butler IND 16.0% v NAT
Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND 21.9% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.4% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.1% v ALP

Notes

  1. ^ a b Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
  2. ^ Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
  3. ^ Mihailuk resigned from the Labor Party in 2022, becoming an independent. She later joined One Nation to contest the Legislative Council.
  4. ^ Sidoti was sacked from the Liberal Party in 2021 and was suspended from parliament for corruption.
  5. ^ Heathcote was notionally a marginal Labor seat following a redistribution.
  6. ^ Sidoti ran and won as the Liberal nominee in 2019 before being suspended.
  7. ^ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  8. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  9. ^ Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  10. ^ While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  11. ^ Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  12. ^ The margin used in the pendulum is Labor's winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  13. ^ Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  14. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
  15. ^ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  16. ^ At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs Labor margin is 16.7%.

Candidates and retiring MPs

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Retiring MPs.[edit]
The following members announced they would not be contesting the 2023 election:

Labor

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Labor.[edit]

Liberal

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Liberal.[edit]

Nationals

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Nationals.[edit]

Independent

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Independent.[edit]

Other

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Other.[edit]

Polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 New South Wales state election

Voting intention

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the 2019 election. Local regression trends for each party.

Primary vote

Primary vote

Two party preferred

Two-party preferred vote

Opinion polls

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote[c]
LIB NAT ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH UND L/NP ALP
24 March 2023 Newspoll[104] 35%* 38% 11% — — 16% — 45.5% 54.5%
22 March 2023 Freshwater Strategy[105] 37%* 37% 10% — — 16% — 47% 53%
19 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[106] 38%* 38% 8% — — 16% — — —
10–14 March 2023 Roy Morgan[107] 34%* 34% 13% — 2% 17% — 46.5% 53.5%
24–28 February 2023 Roy Morgan[108] 32.5%* 33.5% 11% — 8.5% 14.5% — 47.5% 52.5%
28 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[109] 32%* 38% 11% — — 20% — — —
27 February 2023 Freshwater Strategy[110] 37%* 39% 10% 1% — 13% — 47% 53%
26 February 2023 Newspoll[111] 37%* 36% 12% — — 15% — 48% 52%
21 February 2023 Roy Morgan[112] 35%* 32.5% 9.5% 1.5% 6.5% 15%[d] — 48% 52%
31 January 2023 Roy Morgan[113] 33.5%* 33.5% 12% 1% 4.5% 15.5%[e] — 45% 55%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[114] 34%* 37% 12% 2% — 16% — — —
14–17 January 2023 YouGov[115] 33%* 39% 11% — — 17% — 44% 56%
20 December 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 37%* 35% 11.5% 1.5% 5% 10%[f] — 48% 52%
16 November 2022 Private polling[117][g] 33% 4% 40% 9% 1% 6% 7%[h] — — —
October 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 32%* 36.5% 9.5% 1% 5.5% 13%[i] — 43% 57%
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[118] 35%* 38% 11% 1% — 15% — — —
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[119] 36%* 37% 11% 1% — 15% — 46% 54%
September 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 34%* 34% 12.5% 1% 3.5% 15.5%[j] — 47% 53%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[120] 35%* 40% 12% — — 13% — 46% 54%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[121] 30%* 43% 10% 2% — 15% — — —
12 September 2022 Essential[122] 36.4%* 32% 8.5% — — — 13% — —
2 July 2022 Essential[123] 37%* 33% — — — — — — —
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[124] 37%* 34% 8% 2% — 19% — — —
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[125] 41%* 31% 10% 2% — 16% — — —
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[126] 41%* 30% 11% 2% — 16% — — —
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[127] 43%* 28% 12% 1% — 16% — — —
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[128] 44%* 28% 12% 4% — 12% — — —
March 2021 Redbridge[129][130][131][132] 37.0% 3.1% 23.9% 6.7% 0.8% 4.3% 5.3% 18.9% 59% 41%[133]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0% 9.6% 33.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.1% 11.0% – 52.0% 48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%* 35% 10% — — 14% — 51% 49%[k]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[134]
  1. ^ Farlow assumed the casual vacancy created by Natasha Maclaren-Jones following the election.[96]
  2. ^ Bromhead died on 16 March 2023.
  3. ^ Resolve Strategic and Essential do not calculate TPP vote.
  4. ^ "teal independents" 0.5%, Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties/independents 11.5%
  5. ^ UAP 1.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties 10.5%
  6. ^ Animal Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis 0.5%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Independents 5.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  7. ^ Polling was conducted by an unnamed industry group.
  8. ^ Includes "teal independents" at 4%
  9. ^ Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Liberal Democrats 1%, UAP 1%, Independents 8.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Other parties 1.5%
  10. ^ Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 2%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 1%, Independents 7.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  11. ^ Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Graphical summary

Better Premier
Perrottet approval rating
Minns approval rating

Polling

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Perrottet Minns
Perrottet Minns Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
24 March 2023 Newspoll[104] 39% 41% 44% 47% 47% 33%
22 March 2023 Freshwater Strategy[105] 46% 40% not asked not asked
21 March 2023 Essential[135] 36% 33% not asked not asked
19 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[106] 40% 34% 52% 32% 46% 26%
28 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[109] 38% 34% 45% 40% 43% 28%
27 February 2023 Freshwater Strategy[110] 46% 34% not asked not asked
26 February 2023 Newspoll[111] 43% 33% 50% 41% 41% 33%
21 February 2023 Essential[136] not asked 45% 42% 37% 26%
1–6 February 2023 SEC Newgate[137] 34% 27% not asked not asked
7 February 2023 Essential[138] not asked 51% 33% 38% 25%
24 January 2023 Essential[139] not asked 47% 36% 38% 27%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[114] 33% 29% not asked not asked
16 November 2022 Private polling[117] not asked 39% 47% 42% 27%
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[118] 30% 29% not asked not asked
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[119] 38% 41% 37% 35% 26% 15%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[120] 39% 35% 47% 41% 42% 27%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[121] 28% 28% not asked not asked
2 July 2022 Essential[123] not asked 49% 35% 39% 22%
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[124] 29% 32% not asked not asked
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[125] 34% 23% not asked not asked
20–24 October 2021 Essential[140] not asked 47% 28% not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier Berejiklian Minns Berejiklian Minns
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[126] 48% 21% not asked not asked
15–18 September 2021 Newspoll[141] not asked 56% 40% not asked
28 July 2021 Utting Research[142] not asked 56% 33% not asked
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[127] 55% 16% not asked not asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader Berejiklian McKay Berejiklian McKay
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[128] 57% 17% 50% 17% 13% 21%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[143] not asked 75% 17% not asked
28 October – 2 November 2020 Essential[144] not asked 68% 21% not asked
21–23 October 2020 Ipsos[145][146] 58% 19% 64% 16% 22% 25%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[147] not asked 67% 22% not asked
16–17 October 2020 YouGov[148] not asked 68% 26% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[149] not asked 64% 30% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[150] not asked 68% 26% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[151] not asked 69% 23% not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
23 March 2019 election – – – – – –
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[152] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[153] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[154][155] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[134]

Electoral district polling

Date Firm Electorate Voting intention 2cp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP SFF IND OTH L/NP ALP IND
Mar 2023 Freshwater Strategy Riverstone — — — — — — — 46% 54% —
Mar 2023 Climate 200 North Shore — — — — — — — 50.7% — 49.3%
27 Feb–
2 Mar 2023 		Redbridge Group Parramatta — — — — — — — 46% 54% —
Penrith — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
27 Feb 2023 Freshwater Strategy[156] Pittwater 41% 16% 4% — — 30% 9% 52% — 48%
Jan 2023 Internal polling[157] Holsworthy — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
Londonderry — — — — — — — 49% 51% —
Penrith — — — — — — — 50% 50% —
Riverstone — — — — — — — 52% 48% —
Winston Hills — — — — — — — 45% 55% —
Mar 2023 Sky News[158][159] Goulburn 35% 33% 9% 5% 13% — — — — —
Hornsby 37% 21% — 15% — — — 58% 42% —
Leppington 32% 40% 7% 16% — — — 48% 52% —
North Shore 34% 10% 12% — — — 28% 46% — 54%
Penrith — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
Wakehurst 41% 11% 3% — — — 37% 50% — 50%
Winston Hills — — — — — — — 59% 41% —

Newspaper endorsements

In the lead-up to elections, many newspapers publish editorial endorsements. The Coalition received support from several newspapers during the 2023 campaign which has been the case since the 2011 election. Nine Entertainment's Sydney Morning Herald endorsed the Coalition, stating that they believed the Coalition leader, Dominic Perrottet, should be given the opportunity to demonstrate his abilities to the people of NSW. The Daily Telegraph did not publish an editorial, but one of its columnists, Vikki Campion, warned that a Labor victory could result in "wasted money and efforts on feasibility studies, planning, and designs for safer roads and better dams." The Australian and The Australian Financial Review, both national mastheads, also endorsed the Coalition, with the latter citing their belief that the Coalition offered the best chance for getting "New South Wales through the national economic downturn and into a new phase of growth." Meanwhile, the Illawarra Mercury did not explicitly endorse a party but emphasised to readers, "there's a very real chance of a change of government on Saturday, and you might want to play your part."[160][161][162][163][164]

Newspaper City Owner Endorsement
Illawarra Mercury Wollongong Australian Community Media Change of government[161]
The Daily Telegraph Sydney News Corp Coalition[160]
The Australian Sydney News Corp Coalition[162]
The Australian Financial Review Sydney Nine Entertainment Coalition[163]
The Sydney Morning Herald Sydney Nine Entertainment Coalition[164]

See also

References

  1. ^ McGowan, Michael; Rose, Tamsin (25 March 2023). "'Back and ready': Chris Minns leads Labor to power after 12 years in opposition at historic 2023 NSW election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  2. ^ Rabe, Tom (25 March 2023). "'NSW has voted for change': NSW Labor returns from the wilderness". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
  3. ^ Slade, Lucy (25 March 2023). "Mainland Australia turns red after NSW Labor victory". 9News. Retrieved 5 April 2023.
  4. ^ Bongiorno, Frank (27 March 2023). "Australia is now almost entirely held by Labor – but that doesn't necessarily make life easier for leaders". The Conversation. Retrieved 5 April 2023.
  5. ^ Wade, Matt; Cormack, Lucy (27 March 2023). "Majority government in the balance as independents promise Labor supply". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 April 2023.
  6. ^ "Order, Order, Lake Mac MP Greg Piper new Lower House speaker". 4 April 2023.
  7. ^ "iVote failure election re-runs in Kempsey, Singleton, Shellharbour to be held July 30 despite efforts to postpone". ABC News. 8 June 2022. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  8. ^ Stuart, Riley; Mayers, Lily (10 September 2020). "Koala bill causes NSW Government crisis as Gladys Berejiklian warns John Barilaro Nationals ministers will be booted from cabinet". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. No. ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  9. ^ Alexandra Smith (11 September 2020). "NSW Nationals back down after Berejiklian's ultimatum". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  10. ^ Nguyen, Kevin (1 October 2021). "Live: 'Couldn't come at a worse time': Premier's bombshell amid 'darkest days in state's history'". ABC News. Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  11. ^ "Dominic Perrottet sworn in as the youngest ever NSW premier – everything you need to know". 7NEWS. 5 October 2021. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  12. ^ "ICAC should hurry up and release Berejiklian, Maguire findings, former judge says". ABC News. 12 January 2023. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
  13. ^ Green, Antony. "Election Preview – NSW Election 2023". ABC News. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  14. ^ Lucy Cormack (7 July 2021). "Gareth Ward: NSW prosecutor to consider sexual violence claims against Kiama MP". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  15. ^ Cormack, Lucy (22 March 2022). "Gareth Ward charged over historical allegations of sexual assault". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  16. ^ Raper, Ashleigh (24 March 2022). "NSW MP Gareth Ward suspended from parliament over historic sexual abuse charges". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 24 March 2022.
  17. ^ "NSW MP John Sidoti joins crossbench after ICAC announces inquiry into property dealings". www.abc.net.au. 2 March 2021. Retrieved 3 March 2021.
  18. ^ "VIDEO: NSW government to be plunged further into minority". ABC News. 13 February 2022.
  19. ^ Alexandra Smith (31 March 2022). "'Tipping point': NSW Coalition defeated on floor of Parliament". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  20. ^ Tasmin Rose (22 April 2022). "NSW MP Alex Greenwich threatens to withdraw supply from Perrottet government over 'attacks' on trans kids". The Guardian.
  21. ^ Warhurst, John (23 June 2022). "Liberals are grappling with competing theories to explain election loss". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
  22. ^ McGowan, Michael (9 June 2022). "Group that helped unseat a federal Liberal MP sets their sights on NSW election". Guardian Australia. Retrieved 11 June 2022.
  23. ^ "Fred Nile says the Christian Democratic Party is officially dead – Eternity News". www.eternitynews.com.au. 29 March 2022. Retrieved 2 May 2022.
  24. ^ "The future of Christians in Politics – Christ in Government (Fred Nile Alliance)". Christian Democratic Party. 29 March 2022. Retrieved 2 May 2022.
  25. ^ Cockburn, Paige (20 October 2022). "NSW Labor MP Tania Mihailuk resigns from party, says Labor not ready to govern". ABC News. Australia: Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 13 April 2023.
  26. ^ Rabe, Tom; Cormack, Lucy (17 January 2023). "Former Labor MP switches to One Nation weeks before NSW election". The Age. Retrieved 22 January 2023.
  27. ^ Adrian Beaumont (22 January 2023). "Two months before NSW election, a new poll gives Labor a big lead". Theconversation.com. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  28. ^ Segaert, Anthony (27 March 2023). "Key crossbenchers guarantee supply". Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, New South Wales. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  29. ^ "VIDEO: Dominic Perrottet apologises for wearing a Nazi uniform". ABC News. 12 January 2023. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
  30. ^ Cormack, Lucy (12 January 2023). "'Deeply ashamed': Perrottet wore Nazi costume to his 21st birthday". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  31. ^ "Dominic Perrottet Nazi costume: Senior ministers rally to insulate NSW premier". Smh.com.au. 13 January 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  32. ^ "NSW Labor leader Chris Minns says Dominic Perrottet's Nazi uniform apology is 'sincere'". ABC News. 14 January 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  33. ^ McLeod, Catie (16 January 2023). "Robert Borsak threatens to refer Dom Perrottet to police over Nazi costume". news.com.au. Retrieved 4 April 2023.
  34. ^ "'Plagued by scandal': PM attacks Perrottet government at NSW Labor election launch". ABC News. 4 March 2023 – via www.abc.net.au.
  35. ^ May, Natasha (9 March 2023). "Sydney train commuters to get free transport day after rail network outage causes chaos". The Guardian.
  36. ^ Wang, Jessica (11 March 2023). "NSW Election 2023: Greens list demands for Labor". news.com.au.
  37. ^ "'We haven't wasted a minute': NSW Liberal Party tout their record at official election campaign launch in Sydney's west | Sky News Australia". Skynews.com.au. 12 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  38. ^ "NSW election 2023: Perrottet promises major 'future fund' for children at Liberal launch". Smh.com.au. 12 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  39. ^ Green, Eli (14 March 2023). "NSW election: New revelations over Sydney Water plans". news.com.au. Retrieved 4 April 2023.
  40. ^ Beazley, Jordyn (22 March 2023). "Dominic Perrottet denies he called health minister to get faster ambulance response for his sick wife | NSW election 2023". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  41. ^ "NSW election 2023: Dominic Perrottet has ambulance organised for wife by NSW Ambulance chief". Smh.com.au. 22 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  42. ^ "Premier Dominic Perrottet admits calling Health Minister Brad Hazzard when his wife was sick and needed an ambulance | Sky News Australia". Skynews.com.au. 21 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  43. ^ "NSW Labor criticised for directing preferences to Shooters party in key seats | NSW election 2023". The Guardian. 15 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  44. ^ "Labor's Fresh Start Plan for NSW". Chris Minns. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  45. ^ Livingstone, Charles (21 December 2022). "NSW Pokies: Bipartisan support needed from Labor's Chris Minns on cashless gaming". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  46. ^ Rabe, Tom (16 January 2023). "Labor to slash pokie numbers and back a mandatory cashless gaming trial". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  47. ^ "Labor's cashless gaming trial to include 0.58% of all pokie machines as they release gambling policy". 6 News Australia. 17 January 2023. Retrieved 8 March 2023.
  48. ^ "analysis: NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet says his Nazi costume scandal isn't about politics — this is why he's wrong". ABC News. 13 January 2023. Retrieved 15 January 2023.
  49. ^ McGowan, Michael (19 January 2023). "Regional exemptions on the cards for NSW government's cashless gaming scheme". Guardian Australia. Retrieved 20 January 2023.
  50. ^ "Mark Latham to push for nuclear plants and 'parental rights' if made NSW kingmaker | NSW election 2023". The Guardian. 16 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  51. ^ Wang, Jessica (19 March 2023). "NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns promises to legislate state-ownership of Sydney Water, Hunter Water". news.com.au. Retrieved 4 April 2023.
  52. ^ "Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns address rallies ahead of NSW election". ABC News. 19 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  53. ^ "NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet trumps Labor leader Chris Minns in online poll following heated first state election debate". Sky News Australia. 9 February 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  54. ^ a b Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns' 2023 NSW election debate | 7NEWS, 7 March 2023, retrieved 24 March 2023
  55. ^ "NSW Election 2023:Leaders go head-to-head in heated debate less than two weeks out from NSW election". 9news.com.au. 15 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  56. ^ "NSW leaders' debate LIVE updates: Dominic Perrottet, Chris Minns clash in Channel Nine debate as 2023 NSW election campaign heats up". Smh.com.au. 15 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  57. ^ "Sky News to broadcast the final and most important debate of the NSW Election campaign with Premier Dominic Perrottet agreeing to go head-to-head with Opposition Leader Chris Minns". Sky News Australia. 21 February 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  58. ^ "HEAR THE AUDIO | Explosive NSW Leaders Debate". 2GB. 9 February 2023. Retrieved 23 March 2023.
  59. ^ "Labor leader Chris Minns scores a major victory ahead of the NSW election, beating Premier Dominic Perrottet in the Sky News People's Forum". 2GB. 22 March 2023. Retrieved 23 March 2023.
  60. ^ "Report of the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel on the draft determination of the names and boundaries of electoral districts of New South Wales" (PDF). New South Wales Electoral Commission. November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  61. ^ a b c "Names and boundaries of electoral districts". www.elections.nsw.gov.au. NSWEC. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  62. ^ Green, Antony (26 August 2021). "NSW State Redistribution Finalised". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  63. ^ "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
  64. ^ State election results nsw.gov.au Retrieved 4 April 2023
  65. ^ Overall results
  66. ^ Detailed results
  67. ^ Turnout
  68. ^ "NSW election 2023: Nationals disendorse Cessnock candidate Ash Barnham over social media posts". Newcastle Herald. 11 March 2023.
  69. ^ Lu, Donna; AAP (8 April 2023). "NSW Liberals win final lower-house seat of Ryde two weeks after state election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  70. ^ "NSW Liberals retain Ryde after recount increases lead from 50 to 54 votes". ABC News. 15 April 2023. Retrieved 15 April 2023.
  71. ^ "Legislative Council Check Count Statewide Summary". NSW State Election Results 2023. New South Wales Electoral Commission. Retrieved 19 April 2023.
  72. ^ NSW STATE ELECTION RESULTS 2023
  73. ^ Detailed results
  74. ^ Turnout
  75. ^ Green, Antony (8 January 2023). "Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election – Antony Green's Election Blog". Retrieved 22 January 2023.
  76. ^ Bonham, Kevin (13 May 2023). "Dr Kevin Bonham: New South Wales 2023: Final Results, Poll Accuracy And 2PP Pendulum". Dr Kevin Bonham. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  77. ^ Cockburn, Paige. "NSW Labor MP Walt Secord to retire from politics following allegations of bullying". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 19 August 2022.
  78. ^ a b Gramenz, Jack; Loomes, Phoebe. "NSW Labor MP Walt Secord to retire from politics following allegations of bullying". Braidwood Times/AAP. Retrieved 15 September 2022.
  79. ^ a b O'Keefe, Chris. "Sitting Labor MLC's Adam Searle, Walt Secord (retiring) and Shaoquett Moselmane have been dumped from the ALP Upper House ticket. Replaced by Emily Suvaal, Khal Asfour and Stephen Lawrence. @9NewsSyd #nswpol". Twitter.
  80. ^ a b O'Doherty, James. "NSW ALP boss Bob Nanva's bid to parachute himself into upper house seat fails". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
  81. ^ "Guy Zangari: Fairfield MP won't stand for re-election in 2024". The Daily Telegraph. News Corp Australia. 17 October 2022. Retrieved 17 October 2022.
  82. ^ Smith, Alexandra (14 November 2022). "NSW Liberals need 'brave conversation' around quotas: Natalie Ward". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Publishing. Retrieved 15 November 2022.
  83. ^ "Nick Lalich, MP for #Cabramatta, has announced he will be retiring at the next State election! After 35yrs, he's decided to call it a day and will not seek re-selection at the next election for the seat of Cabramatta". Twitter. 24 December 2022. Retrieved 28 December 2022.
  84. ^ Smith, Alexandra (21 September 2022). "Labor preselection turf war hands Perrottet a political gift". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 28 December 2022.
  85. ^ Gorrey, Megan; McGuire, Amelia; Morris, Linda. "Melinda Pavey dropped from cabinet ahead of long-anticipated reshuffle". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 December 2021.
  86. ^ Rabe, Tom. "Vaucluse Liberal MP Gabrielle Upton to quit politics ahead of next election". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
  87. ^ Bharadwaj, Angira. "Veteran Riverstone MP Kevin Conolly to retire at the 2023 NSW election". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 15 August 2022.
  88. ^ Saunokonoko, Mark (17 August 2022). "NSW Minister Victor Dominello retires from politics over 'deteriorating' family health issue". 9News. Retrieved 23 August 2022.
  89. ^ Smith, Alexandra (22 August 2022). "Second minister pulls the plug on the Perrottet government". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 August 2022.
  90. ^ Smith, Alexandra (5 September 2022). "NSW Speaker to quit state parliament and the Liberals' safest seat". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 6 September 2022.
  91. ^ Rabe, Tom; Cormack, Lucy (30 September 2022). "Rob Stokes to resign from NSW politics". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Publishing. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  92. ^ Rabe, Tom (22 October 2022). "Divisive NSW Minister David Elliott to quit state politics". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 22 October 2022.
  93. ^ Smith, Alexandra (24 October 2022). "Brad Hazzard, minister who guided NSW through COVID, to quit politics". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Publishing. Retrieved 24 October 2022.
  94. ^ a b c Smith, Alexandra (22 December 2022). "Perrottet intervenes to ensure Liberal women preselected for upper house". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Publishing. Retrieved 22 December 2022.
  95. ^ Koziol, Michael (18 February 2023). "Peter Poulos suspended from Liberal party, disendorced as NSW election candidate". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 February 2023.
  96. ^ "NSW Liberals avoid messy preselection fight, strike deal on women-focused upper house ticket". ABC News. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
  97. ^ "Myall Lakes MP announces retirement". 17 August 2022.
  98. ^ MacKenzie, Bruce (22 August 2022). "Nationals MP Chris Gulaptis announces retirement from seat of Clarence". ABC News. Retrieved 23 August 2022.
  99. ^ AAP staff writers (28 August 2022). "Melinda Pavey joins departing NSW MPs". Perth Now. Retrieved 28 August 2022.
  100. ^ Fuller, Kelly (17 October 2022). "Retiring independent MP Justin Field condemns NSW government environment record". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 17 October 2022.
  101. ^ Demetriadi, Alex. "John Sidoti: Drummoyne MP standing down from politics, lashes ICAC for 'political witch hunt'". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 24 November 2022.
  102. ^ Cormack, Lucy; Rabe, Tom. "Balmain Greens MP Jamie Parker to quit politics at state election". The Age. Retrieved 14 October 2022.
  103. ^ "Animal Justice Party 2022 National Conference program". Animal Justice Party. p. 5. Retrieved 28 November 2022. Pearson's term is coming to an end in March 2023
  104. ^ a b Maddison, Max. "Newspoll: Chris Minns in premier position to secure NSW Labor return to power". The Australian. Retrieved 24 March 2023.
  105. ^ a b Hutchinson, Samantha. "Undecided voters are warming to Labor: poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 22 March 2023.
  106. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (20 March 2023). "Perrottet claws back ground in tight contest, but Labor tipped to return to power". Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, New South Wales.
  107. ^ "NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases in mid-March: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 22 March 2023.
  108. ^ "NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases slightly in late February: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 3 March 2023.
  109. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (1 March 2023). "NSW Labor on track to return to government for first time since landslide 2011 loss". Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, New South Wales.
  110. ^ a b Hutchinson, Samantha. "Dominic Perrottet closes in on Chris Minns". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 27 February 2023.
  111. ^ a b Maddison, Max. "Dominic Perrottet far from done as Liberals play catch-up in NSW election: Newspoll". The Australian. Retrieved 26 February 2023.
  112. ^ "NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP cut in early in 2023: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  113. ^ "NSW Voting Intention: ALP increased their lead over the L-NP to end 2022: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 31 January 2023.
  114. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (25 January 2023). "NSW Labor in election-winning lead but Perrottet preferred premier". Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, New South Wales.
  115. ^ Blake, Sarah (21 January 2023). "YouGov poll predicts Chris Minns will defeat Dominic Perrottet at March State Election". The Daily Telegraph. Sydney, New South Wales.
  116. ^ a b c "NSW Voting Intention: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% with State Election approaching in March 2023". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 20 December 2022.
  117. ^ a b Maddison, Max. "NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet's vote lifts despite dire Nationals". The Australian. Retrieved 16 November 2022.
  118. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Coalition claws back lost ground after 'pollution' of federal poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  119. ^ a b Hutchinson, Samantha. "'Poll puts Labor on path to victory in NSW". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  120. ^ a b Maddison, Max. "'Give someone else a go': NSW Labor's stakes rise in Newspoll". The Australian. Retrieved 23 September 2022.
  121. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor secures election-winning lead as voters abandon the Coalition". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 24 September 2022.
  122. ^ Rose, Tamsin. "NSW Coalition down but not out as poll shows hung parliament a strong possibility". The Guardian Australia. Retrieved 12 September 2022.
  123. ^ a b McGowan, Michael. "Guardian Essential poll shows NSW Coalition's primary vote falling below 40%". The Guardian Australia. Retrieved 2 July 2022.
  124. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Labor's Chris Minns becomes preferred NSW premier as Dominic Perrottet suffers poll hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 24 February 2022.
  125. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Broad support for assisted dying ahead of vote on controversial bill". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  126. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Two-thirds of people support NSW opening at 70 per cent vaccination". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  127. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Voters question speed of lockdown but Berejiklian still popular". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  128. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Berejiklian preferred premier among Labor voters: poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  129. ^ O'Keefe, Chris (14 March 2021). "'Ten wasted years': NSW Labor polls just 23.9 per cent of primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  130. ^ "State Labor Leader Jodi McKay is facing the biggest electoral bloodbath in more than 100 years, prompting key backers to withdraw their support. @cokeefe9 #9News". Twitter.
  131. ^ Samaras, Kos. "Libs 37, Labor 23.9, Nats 3.1, 4.3 PHON, SFFP 0.8, Greens 6.7, Indi 5.3, 18.9 not sure. Weighted to ABS". Twitter.
  132. ^ Bonham, Kevin (15 March 2021). "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low".
  133. ^ TPP estimate by Kevin Bonham: "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low". 15 March 2021.
  134. ^ a b "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 2 June 2019.
  135. ^ McGowan, Michael. "Guardian Essential poll: Perrottet the preferred NSW premier but both parties' election policies fail to excite". The Guardian Australia. Retrieved 21 March 2023.
  136. ^ "The Essential Report: 21 February 2023". Essential Report. 21 February 2023.
  137. ^ Chambers, Geoff. "'Preferred' Dominic Perrottet claws back ground as NSW election looms". The Australian. Retrieved 15 February 2023.
  138. ^ "The Essential Report: 07 February 2023". Essential Report. 7 February 2023.
  139. ^ Murphy, Katharine. "Guardian Essential poll: Albanese approval rating dips in sign of gruelling political year ahead". The Guardian Australia. Retrieved 24 January 2023.
  140. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 25 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
  141. ^ "Newspoll: Gap closes on lifting coronavirus restrictions". The Australian. The Australian. 20 September 2020.
  142. ^ Coorey, Phillip. "Berejiklian beats PM in poll – but Chant is the real winner". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 30 July 2021.
  143. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  144. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
  145. ^ "NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian still has support of majority of voters despite revelation: Exclusive poll". 9News.com.au. Nine News. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  146. ^ "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  147. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Retrieved 20 October 2020.
  148. ^ "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Daily Telegraph. 18 October 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  149. ^ "Newspoll: Daniel Andrews caught in voters' crossfire over COVID-19". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
  150. ^ "Andrews' halo slips: Newspoll". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
  151. ^ Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  152. ^ "Sydney news: Poll reveals NSW election remains deadlocked, police make fresh murder appeal". Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  153. ^ "NSW election set to be close". Retrieved 11 March 2019.
  154. ^ Tovey, Josephine (17 February 2019). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 February 2019.
  155. ^ Smith, Alexandra (9 March 2019). "Sentiment may seem clear but NSW is still the Coalition's to lose". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  156. ^ "Pittwater (Key Seat) - NSW Electorate, Candidates, Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  157. ^ "Polling puts pressure on Perrottet Government". Sky News Australia. 17 January 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  158. ^ "Matt Kean facing 16 per cent primary swing against him as One Nation, Liberal Democrats' popularity surges". Skynews.com.au. 21 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  159. ^ "Minor parties set to deliver Labor gov't at NSW election, leaked polling shows". Skynews.com.au. 22 March 2023. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  160. ^ a b "Vikki Campion: Voters have no idea what's at risk — because pollies play safe". The Daily Telegraph (Sydney). 24 March 2023. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  161. ^ a b "The Illawarra is ready for change – use your vote wisely: Editorial". Illawarra Mercury. 24 March 2023. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  162. ^ a b "Premier state must show the way". The Australian. 24 March 2023. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  163. ^ a b "Coalition has the better track record of growth in NSW". The Australian Financial Review. 22 March 2023. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  164. ^ a b "Both leaders are decent, smart and capable but one offers a more ambitious vision for NSW". The Sydney Morning Herald. 24 March 2023. Retrieved 19 May 2023.