2016 Manitoba general election
2016 Manitoba general election Turnout 57.43%
First party
Second party
Leader
Brian Pallister
Greg Selinger
Party
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Leader since
July 30, 2012
October 17, 2009
Leader's seat
Fort Whyte
St. Boniface
Last election
19 seats, 43.71%
37 seats, 46.16%
Seats before
19
35
Seats won
40
14
Seat change
21
21
Popular vote
232,215
112,748
Percentage
53.10%
25.78%
Swing
9.39%
20.38%
Third party
Fourth party
Leader
Rana Bokhari
James Beddome
Party
Liberal
Green
Leader since
October 26, 2013
November 15, 2014
Leader's seat
ran in Fort Rouge (lost)
ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost)
Last election
1 seat, 7.52%
0 seats, 2.52%
Seats before
1
0
Seats won
3
0
Seat change
2
Popular vote
62,973
22,188
Percentage
14.40%
5.07%
Swing
6.88%
2.62%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba , Canada.[ 1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba , led by Greg Selinger , were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister , ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Progressive Conservatives won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.[ 2]
The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party .
Date
Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.[ 3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.[ 4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.[ 5] The legislature was dissolved and writs for the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.[ 6]
Campaign
The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election , the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting;[ 7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate.[ 8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.[ 8]
The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate.[ 7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.[ 9]
Election summary
The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.
Popular vote
PC
53.10%
New Democratic
25.78%
Liberal
14.40%
Green
5.07%
Others
1.65%
Seats summary
PC
70.18%
New Democratic
24.56%
Liberal
5.26%
Summary results
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016
Party
2011
Gain from (loss to)
2016
NDP
PC
Lib
New Democratic
37
(21)
(2)
14
Progressive Conservative
19
21
40
Liberal
1
2
3
Total
57
23
(21)
(2)
57
Incumbents not contesting their seats
Opinion polls
NDP
Progressive Conservative
Liberal
Green
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Link
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Insights West
April 18, 2016
[ p 1]
28
53
10
7
1
Insightrix Research
April 18, 2016
[ p 2]
22
49
19
9
1
Forum Research
April 17, 2016
[ p 3]
21
52
18
9
Mainstreet Research
April 14, 2016
[ p 4]
26
55
11
9
Insights West
April 7, 2016
[ p 5]
26
49
17
7
1
Insightrix Research
April 7, 2016
[ p 6]
24
49
22
5
Mainstreet Research
April 5, 2016
[ p 7]
24
50
17
9
Probe Research Inc
April 4, 2016
[ p 8]
28
46
20
6
Mainstreet Research
March 29, 2016
[ p 9]
23
45
24
7
Mainstreet Research
March 19, 2016
[ p 10]
24
44
24
7
Forum Research
March 13, 2016
[ p 11]
22
46
23
8
1
Mainstreet Research
March 12, 2016
[ p 12]
27
43
24
7
Mainstreet Research
February 20, 2016
[ p 13]
21
50
23
6
Mainstreet Research
February 11, 2016
[ p 14]
21
51
20
7
Mainstreet Research
January 25, 2016
[ p 15]
20
52
20
9
Mainstreet Research
January 9, 2016
[ p 16]
23
44
27
6
Insightrix Research
December 22, 2015
[ p 17]
19
39
36
5
1
Probe Research Inc
December 15, 2015
[ p 18]
22
43
29
6
Probe Research Inc
September 23, 2015
[ p 19]
25
45
24
5
Probe Research Inc
June 27, 2015
[ p 20]
29
46
19
5
Probe Research Inc
April 5, 2015
[ p 21]
29
44
20
7
Probe Research Inc
December 12, 2014
HTML
26
48
19
7
Mainstreet Research
November 3, 2014
[ p 22]
27
53
20
Probe Research Inc
October 1, 2014
[ p 23]
30
42
20
8
Probe Research Inc
June 19, 2014
HTML
32
45
16
7
Probe Research Inc
March 28, 2014
[ p 24]
28
46
23
3
Insightrix Research
February 7, 2014
[ p 25]
24
49
18
9
Probe Research Inc
December 27, 2013
[ p 26]
26
48
20
6
Probe Research Inc
September 28, 2013
[ p 27]
29
43
20
8
Probe Research Inc
June 26, 2013
[ p 28]
28
46
17
10
Probe Research Inc
April 14, 2013
[ p 29]
35
42
15
8
Probe Research Inc
December 14, 2012
[ p 29]
39
43
11
7
Probe Research Inc
October 14, 2012
[ p 30]
45
38
11
6
Probe Research Inc
June 29, 2012
[ p 31]
44
40
13
3
Probe Research Inc
April 4, 2012
[ p 32]
40
45
10
5
2011 election
October 4, 2011
46.2
43.7
7.5
2.5
0.1
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Link
Other
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Candidates by riding
Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.
Northern Manitoba
Westman/Parkland
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Agassiz
Courtney Lucas 450
Eileen Clarke 5,228
Robert Smith 409
Damian Dempsey (Ind.) 910
Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden
Lorne Topolniski 600
Doyle Piwniuk 6,006
Frank Godon (Manitoba) 846
Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East
Drew Caldwell 2,534
Len Isleifson 3,669
Vanessa Hamilton 830
Drew Caldwell
Brandon West
Linda Ross 1,884
Reg Helwer 5,624
William Moore 631
Reg Helwer
Dauphin
Darcy Scheller 1,899
Brad Michaleski 4,795
Garry Gurke 505
Kate Storey 595
Darrell Inkster (Manitoba) 168
Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain
Béla Gyarmati 601
Greg Nesbitt 5,311
Jordan Fleury 1,028
Mark Olenick 779
Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods
Amanda Chmelyk 665
Cliff Cullen 5,210
Jaron Hart 512
Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba) 738
Cliff Cullen
Central Manitoba
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Emerson
Alanna Jones 432
Cliff Graydon 4,943
Loren Braul 1,423
Cliff Graydon
Gimli
Armand Bélanger 2,579
Jeff Wharton 5,614
Dwight Harfield 843
Ed Paquette (Manitoba) 239
vacant
Interlake
Tom Nevakshonoff 1,428
Derek Johnson 3,685
Jamal Abas 2,068
Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside
Matt Austman 1,369
Ralph Eichler 6,077
Ralph Eichler
Midland
Jacqueline Theroux 714
Blaine Pedersen 6,168
Julia Sisler 523
Stacey O’Neill 797
Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler
Elizabeth Lynch 215
Cameron Friesen 6,598
Benjamin Bawdon 279
Mike Urichuk 667
Cameron Friesen
Morris
Mohamed Alli 840
Shannon Martin 6,980
John Falk 1,430
Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie
Alex MacDonald 697
Ian Wishart 4,635
Stephen Prince 1,238
Ian Wishart
Eastman
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Dawson Trail
Roxane Dupuis 1,678
Bob Lagassé 4,430
Terry Hayward 1,652
David Sutherland (Manitoba) 516
Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet
Wendy Sol 1,647
Wayne Ewasko 5,666
Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye
Echo Asher 705
Dennis Smook 5,262
Bill Paulishyn 696
Janine Gibson 724
Dennis Smook
Steinbach
Kathleen McCallum 387
Kelvin Goertzen 6,982
Dakota Young-Brown 461
Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul
Andrew Podolecki 1,757
Ron Schuler 7,091
Pete Sanderson 1,055
Ron Schuler
Selkirk
Greg Dewar 2,366
Alan Lagimodiere 4,686
Stefan Jones 1,390
Greg Dewar
Northwest Winnipeg
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Burrows
Melanie Wight 1,775
Rae Wagner 1,014
Cindy Lamoureux 2,641
Garrett Bodnaryk 216
Tony Petrowski (Communist) 28
Melanie Wight
Kildonan
Dave Chomiak 3,065
Nic Curry 3,694
Navdeep Khangura 974
Steven Stairs 456
Gary Marshall (Manitoba) 133
Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas
Kevin Chief 2,839
Marsha Street 811
Althea Guiboche 956
Alberteen Spence 247
Frank Komarniski (Communist) 58
Kevin Chief
St. Johns
Nahanni Fontaine 2,358
Barbara Judt 1,869
Noel Bernier 1,465
Elizabeth Puchailo 671
Gord Mackintosh
The Maples
Mohinder Saran 2,832
Kaur Sidhu 2,705
Harbans Singh Brar 1,695
John Redekopp 582
Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park
Ted Marcelino 2,139
Naseer Warraich 1,306
Aida Champagne 1,656
Shane Neustaeter 391
Ted Marcelino
Northeast Winnipeg
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Concordia
Matt Wiebe 2,761
Andrew Frank 2,483
Donovan Martin 642
Terry Scott (Manitoba) 254
Matt Wiebe
Elmwood
Jim Maloway 2,993
Sarah Langevin 2,886
Albert Ratt (Manitoba) 579
Jim Maloway
Radisson
Preet Singh 2,945
James Teitsma 4,635
Scott Newman 1,593
Bidhu Jha
River East
Jody Gillis 2,435
Cathy Cox 6,154
Piero Scaramuzzi 776
Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere
Erna Braun 3,389
Andrew Micklefield 5,303
Malli Aulakh 838
William Sullivan (Manitoba) 427
Erna Braun
St. Boniface
Greg Selinger 3,624
Mamadou Ka 2,211
Alain Landry 1,663
Signe Knutson 1,048
Greg Selinger
Transcona
Barb Burkowski 2,281
Blair Yakimoski 3,948
Chad Panting 1,465
Darrell Rankin (Communist) 68 Ajit Kumar (Manitoba) 233
Daryl Reid
West Winnipeg
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Assiniboia
Joseph McKellep 2,196
Steven Fletcher 3,450
Ian McCausland 1,631
Ileana Ohlsson 580
Jim Rondeau
Charleswood
Janna Barkman 1,168
Myrna Driedger 5,298
Paul Brault 1,187
Kevin Nichols 1,080
Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park
Sharon Blady 3,075
Scott Fielding 5,457
Kelly Nord 889
Lisa Omand 784
Sharon Blady
St. James
Deanne Crothers 2,723
Scott Johnston 3,532
Michelle Finley 1,150
Jeff Buhse 850
Brad Gross (Manitoba) 137
Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo
Zach Fleisher 1,312
Heather Stefanson 4,986
Michael Lazar 1,251
Bob Krul 976
Heather Stefanson
Central Winnipeg
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Fort Garry-Riverview
James Allum 3,450
Jeannette Montufar 3,149
Johanna Wood 807
James Beddome 1,711
James Allum
Fort Rouge
Wab Kinew 3,360
Audrey Gordon 2,751
Rana Bokhari 1,792
Grant Sharp 983
Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba) 175 Paula Ducharme (Communist) 47
Jennifer Howard
Logan
Flor Marcelino 2,020
Allie Szarkiewicz 997
Peter Koroma 1,457
Jitendradas Loves-Life 397
Joe Chan (Manitoba) 185 Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist) 63
Flor Marcelino
Minto
Andrew Swan 2,954
Belinda Squance 1,016
Demetre Balaktsis 723
Martha Jo Willard 410
Andrew Taylor (Communist) 41 Virgil Gil (Manitoba) 51 Don Woodstock (Ind) 589
Andrew Swan
River Heights
Shafagh Daneshfar 591
Tracey Maconachie 3,485
Jon Gerrard 5,230
Michael Cardillo 771
Jon Gerrard
Wolseley
Rob Altemeyer 3,037
Raquel Dancho 945
Shandi Strong 653
David Nickarz 2,645
Wayne Sturby (Manitoba) 79
Rob Altemeyer
South Winnipeg
Electoral district
Candidates
Incumbent
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Other
Fort Richmond
Kerri Irvin-Ross 2,274
Sarah Guillemard 2,879
Kyra Wilson 814
Cameron Proulx 540
Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte
George Wong 1,718
Brian Pallister 6,775
Peter Bastians 1,205
Carli Runions 731
Daryl Newis (Manitoba) 127
Brian Pallister
Riel
Christine Melnick 3,053
Rochelle Squires 5,024
Neil Johnston 1,627
Christine Melnick
Seine River
Lise Pinkos 2,343
Janice Morley-Lecomte 5,396
Peter Chura 2,388
Theresa Oswald
Southdale
Dashi Zargani 2,460
Andrew Smith 6,663
Ryan Colyer 1,318
vacant
St. Norbert
Dave Gaudreau 3,062
Jon Reyes 4,673
James Bloomfield 1,251
Narinder Kaur Johar 174
Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital
Jamie Moses 2,831
Colleen Mayer 3,229
Bryan Van Wilgenburg 1,296
Kelly Whelan-Enns 791
Nancy Allan
Notes
References
^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine . Retrieved June 24, 2012.
^ "Brian Pallister's PCs win majority government in Manitoba" . CBC News . April 19, 2016.
^ Elections Act , sec. 49.1(2).
^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
^ " 'Choices are clear:' Selinger makes April 19 Manitoba election official" . CTV News. March 16, 2016. Retrieved June 28, 2019 .
^ a b "Manitoba election results 2016" . Global News . April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016 .
^ a b "Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll" . Winnipeg Free Press , April 9, 2016.
^ "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election" . CBC News . April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016 .
^ Owen, Bruce (April 29, 2015). "Selinger's shuffle making the best of a bad situation" . Winnipeg Free Press . Retrieved June 28, 2019 .
^ "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics" . Global News . April 13, 2015.
^ "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running" . Global News . May 13, 2015.
^ CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
^ "Longtime NDP MLA Nancy Allan announces retirement" . Winnipeg Free Press . May 28, 2015. Retrieved June 28, 2019 .
^ a b "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection" . Winnipeg Free Press . September 11, 2014.
^ "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement" . CJOB . October 17, 2014.
Opinion poll sources
^ "Two Thirds of Manitobans Want a Change of Government" . Archived from the original on April 27, 2016.
^ "Voter Intentions Remain Unchanged in the Final Weekend Before the Manitoba Provincial Election" . April 18, 2016.
^ Progressive Conservatives to take more than half the vote Forum Research Inc.
^ "Manitoba's choice" . mainstreetresearch.ca . Retrieved April 10, 2023 .
^ "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives Hold Sizeable Lead" . Archived from the original on April 18, 2016. Retrieved December 11, 2022 .
^ "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader" .
^ "Liberals Slide, PCS Lead as Election Nears End" .
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 9, 2016 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Poll suggests Tories hold solid support as Manitoba election approaches" . CBC . March 31, 2016.
^ "Tenuous Tie Continues in Winnipeg" .
^ "Forum research Inc" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on April 22, 2016. Retrieved March 29, 2016 .
^ "Dead Heat in Winnipeg" .
^ "Mainstreet - Manitoba February 22 | PDF | Opinion Poll | Politics Of Canada" . Scribd .
^ "Mainstreet - Manitoba February 16 | PDF | Opinion Poll | Political Parties" . Scribd .
^ "PCS Dominating in Manitoba" .
^ "PCS Lead, Liberals Second in Manitoba" .
^ "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader" . December 30, 2015. Archived from the original on March 29, 2016.
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on January 23, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2015 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on October 1, 2015. Retrieved September 30, 2015 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2015. Retrieved August 4, 2015 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on March 4, 2016. Retrieved April 7, 2015 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Nov 2014: Most Manitobans say Selinger should resign: Poll" . Winnipeg Free Press . November 4, 2014.
^ Owen, Bruce (October 9, 2014). "Oct 2014: Liberals only gainers in latest poll numbers" . Winnipeg Free Press .
^ Kusch, Larry (April 7, 2014). "Apr 2014: Tories keep top spot in survey" . Winnipeg Free Press .
^ "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader" .
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on December 27, 2013. Retrieved December 27, 2013 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "New opinion poll suggests Manitoba's NDP government still low in popular support | Metro" . metronews.ca . Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved January 25, 2022 .
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2014 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ a b "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on September 19, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2013 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 27, 2012 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on March 12, 2016. Retrieved August 10, 2012 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2012 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
Further reading
Levasseur, Karine; Rounce, Andrea; Ferguson, Barry; Koop, Royce, eds. (2019). Understanding the Manitoba Election 2016: Campaigns, Participation, Issues, Place . Winnipeg: University of Manitoba Press. ISBN 978-0-88755-548-0 .
External links
Most recent Future elections Lists Electoral districts System