Opinion polling for the 2007 Kenyan general election

Opinion polls played an important role in the runup to the Kenyan elections of December 2007. A number of institutes published results on the presidential candidates. Nation Media employed the Kenyan Steadman market information company to conduct regular polls, which thus received the widest attention.

Polls are a new instrument on the Kenyan political scene. Recent elections had seen some results published which met, however, with widespread scepticism.

The publication of polls in 2007 generated large interest and controversy as they were alternatively welcomed or condemned by parties and observers on the national scene and frequently criticised as having been manipulated by one or the other side.[1][2][3]

Generally polls showed in early stages a lead for President Mwai Kibaki and a strong showing of Kalonzo Musyoka on the opposition side.

After realignments in the opposition Raila Odinga had managed to get the support of regional leaders from a multi-tribal background and Musyoka looked largely reduced to his Kamba hometurf. This showed in the polls with Odinga surging ahead.

After re-formation on the president's side criticism at Odinga became more pointed and this message seems to have had effect in narrowing the difference between the leading presidential contestants.

National polls

Poll date Kibaki Musyoka Odinga Mudavadi Ruto Kenyatta
October 2006[4] 41% 20% 13% 3% 5%
December 2006[5] 42% 20% 14% 3% 5%
March 2007[6] 51% 14% 17% 2% 2% 2%
April 2007[7] 44.3% 15.3% 18.7% 2.7% 2.6% 3.5%
June 2007[8] 45% 14% 28% 4% 3% 4%
July 2007[9] 45% 11% 25% 3% 2% 2%
August 2007[10] 42% 11% 25% 8% 6% 1%
August 2007[11] 47% 13% 36% 1% 1%
September 2007[12] 38% 8% 47%
13 October 2007[13] 37% 8% 53%
23 October 2007[14] 39% 8% 50%
9 November 2007[15] 41% 11% 45%
21 November 2007[16] 41.4% 14.7% 40.7%
17 November 2007[17] 42% 11% 45%
23 November 2007[18] 43.3% 11.4% 43.6%
7 December 2007[19] 42% 10% 46%
18 December 2007[20] 43% 10% 45%

Regional polls

23 September 2007[21]

Province Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided
Nairobi 40% 44% 10% 5%

29 September 2007[22]

Province Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided RTA
Central 79% 12% 1% 4% –
Coast 36% 48% 6% 8% –
Eastern 49% 34% 6% 3% –
Nairobi 37% 51% 5% 4% –
North Eastern 27% 70% 3% 0% –
Nyanza 8% 85% 0% 2% –
Rift Valley 35% 53% 3% 8% –
Western 25% 65% 4% 3% –
# of Wins 2 6 0

23 October 2007[23]

Province Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided RTA
Central 89% 5% 2% – –
Coast 36% 49% 10% – –
Eastern 55% 8% 36% – –
Nairobi 43% 46% 8% – –
North Eastern 20% 77% 1% – –
Nyanza 17% 82% 0% – –
Rift Valley 29% 65% 4% – –
Western 29% 61% 3% – –
# of Wins 2 6 0

23 November 2007

Province Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided RTA
Central 92.8% 5.0% 2.0% – –
Coast 34.7% 51.5% 9.7% – –
Eastern 48.9% 6.1% 43.8% – –
Nairobi 46.3% 39.3% 12.1% – –
North Eastern 32.2% 64.4% 3.4% – –
Nyanza 11.9% 85.3% 1.8% – –
Rift Valley 39.3% 55.8% 3.9% – –
Western 20.7% 72.8% 1.4% – –
# of wins 3 5 0

7 December 2007[24]

Province Kibaki Odinga Musyoka
Central 91% 8% –
Coast 35% 63% 10%
Eastern 46% 6% 44%
Nairobi 41% 47% –
North Eastern 27% 65% –
Nyanza 19% 78% –
Rift Valley 36% 61% –
Western 21% 69% –
# of wins 2 6 0

References

  1. ^ http://demokrasia-kenya.blogspot.com/2007/04/demystifying-steadmans-april-fool-prank.html The Steadman Group is part of President Kibaki’s Reelection Campaign Team – Kenyan Democracy Project-BlogTuesday, 3 April 2007 seen 11 August 2007
  2. ^ http://kenyalondonnews.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=774&Itemid=44 Steadman Polls – The Real Story (Kenya London News – undated, written before elections, seen 11 January 2008)
  3. ^ Article title[usurped] Steadman polls now questioned (EAStandard 9 December 2007)
  4. ^ Survey shows Kibaki’s popularity on the rise The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
  5. ^ Kibaki leads again in poll The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
  6. ^ Raila finally Hummers Kalonzo[usurped] The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
  7. ^ It’s Kibaki-Raila battle[usurped] The Standard (Poll by International Republican Institute)
  8. ^ Why Kibaki will win polls[usurped] The Standard (Poll by Research and Marketing Services (RMS))
  9. ^ Kalonzo drops, Raila shoots up, Kibaki holds on[usurped] The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
  10. ^ Raila preferred ODM flagbearer, poll shows[usurped] The Standard, 8 August 2007 (Poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting and Harris Interactive Global)
  11. ^ Kibaki, Raila ahead of pack in new opinion poll[usurped] The Standard, 30 August 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  12. ^ Raila tops table [permanent dead link‍] The Daily Nation, 29 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  13. ^ Raila widens gap [usurped] The Standard Online Edition, 13 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  14. ^ Raila’s third win [usurped] The Standard Online Edition, 23 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  15. ^ Raila drops in new ratings Archived 22 February 2008 at the Wayback Machine Daily Nation, 9 November 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  16. ^ Latest surveys forecast tight race for State House Archived 22 February 2008 at the Wayback Machine Daily Nation (Poll by Consumer Insight), 17 November 2007
  17. ^ New poll predicts close race Archived 12 February 2008 at the Wayback Machine Daily Nation (Poll by Gallup), 21 November 2007
  18. ^ Raila, Kibaki in nip and tuck race[permanent dead link‍] Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), 23 November 2007
  19. ^ Raila maintains lead in latest poll Archived 3 January 2008 at the Wayback Machine Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), 7 December 2007
  20. ^ Last poll, last push[usurped] The Standard (Poll by Steadman International), 18 December 2007
  21. ^ Raila leads Kibaki in city poll[usurped] The Standard, 26 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  22. ^ Raila leads, Kibaki drops[usurped] The Standard, 29 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  23. ^ Raila tops yet again in latest opinion poll ratings with lead in six provinces [permanent dead link‍] Daily Nation, 27 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
  24. ^ Steadman poll puts Raila ahead[usurped] The Standard, 7 December 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)

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