Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

No later than 6 May 2027
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
Leader Michelle O'Neill[n 1] Gavin Robinson Naomi Long Party Sinn Féin DUP Alliance Leader since 23 January 2017[n 2] 29 March 2024 26 October 2016 Leader's seat Mid Ulster MP (not an MLA)[n 3] Belfast East Last election 27 seats, 29.0% 25 seats, 21.3% 17 seats, 13.5%   Leader Mike Nesbitt Claire Hanna Jim Allister Party UUP SDLP TUV Leader since 30 August 2024 5 October 2024 7 December 2007 Leader's seat Strangford MP (not an MLA)[n 5] MP (not an MLA)[n 4] Last election 9 seats, 11.2% 8 seats, 9.1% 1 seat, 7.6%   Leader Richard Boyd Barrett Party People Before Profit Leader since 10 October 2024 Leader's seat TD (not an MLA)[n 6] Last election 1 seat, 1.1%
Incumbent First Minister and deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill (SF) and Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)

A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.

After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.^[2] No Executive was formed by this deadline,^[3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.^[4][5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.^[6][7] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,^[8] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.^[9]

This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,^[10] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Mike Nesbitt, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Claire Hanna, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, and People Before Profit (PBP) led by Richard Boyd Barrett.

Background

Main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation

Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 (c. 13) specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,^[11] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.

After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.^[12] No government was formed by the deadline.^[13] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline,^[14] the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 (c. 48).^[15][16][17] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.^[14][18][19] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.^[20][21]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.^[22] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.^[23] However, the DUP boycott continued.^[24] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024.^[25][26][27]

On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.^[28] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	SF ^N	DUP ^U	APNI ^O	UUP ^U	SDLP ^N	TUV ^U	Green ^O	Aontú ^N	PBP ^O	Other	Lead
1–4 Nov 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,209	29%	19%	13%	10%	10%	11%	2%	1%	2%	3%	10%
10 Oct 2024	Richard Boyd Barrett becomes the leader of People Before Profit (PBP)
5 Oct 2024	Claire Hanna becomes the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
30 Aug 2024	Mike Nesbitt becomes the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
29 Aug 2024	Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
19 Aug 2024	Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
16–19 Aug 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,443	30%	18%	15%	12%	8%	9%	2%	1%	1%	4%	12%
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	27.0%	22.1%	15.0%	12.2%	11.1%	6.2%	1.1%	1.0%	1.1%	3.3% Independent on 3.1%	7.6%
10–13 May 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,021	29%	21%	15%	11%	8%	8%	1%	2%	1%	4%	8%
29 Mar 2024	Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 Feb 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	31%	24%	14%	10%	7%	6%	1%	2%	1%	4%	7%
3 Feb 2024	Establishment of the new executive
27–30 Oct 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,046	31%	28%	16%	8%	6%	4%	2%	1%	1%	2%	3%
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	31%	26%	15%	10%	6%	5%	2%	2%	1%	2%	5%
18 May 2023	2023 local elections		–	30.9%	23.3%	13.3%	10.9%	8.7%	3.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.0%	5.4% NI Conservatives on 0.1%	7.6%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,557	29%	25%	13%	11%	7%	7%	2%	2%	1%	3%	4%
3–14 Mar 2023	Institute of Irish Studies	University of Liverpool/The Irish News	N/A	30.6%	23.9%	15.4%	11.3%	6.7%	4.8%	3.2%	0.2%	2.2%	1.7% NI Conservatives on 1.3%	6.7%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,499	31%	25%	15%	10%	7%	7%	1%	2%	1%	1%	6%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	32%	27%	15%	9%	7%	5%	2%	1%	1%	1%	5%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	30%	24%	16%	11%	7%	6%	2%	2%	1%	1%	6%
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022	Institute of Irish Studies	University of Liverpool/The Irish News	1,000	30.9%	20.1%	15.3%	9.6%	10.0%	4.7%	2.8%	1.6%	2.2%	2.8%	10.8%
5 May 2022	2022 Assembly election		–	29.0%	21.3%	13.5%	11.2%	9.1%	7.6%	1.9%	1.5%	1.1%	3.8% NI Conservatives on 0.03%	7.7%

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	54%	29%	17%	+25%
3 February 2024	O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	43%	37%	20%	+6%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	41%	37%	22%	+4%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	41%	40%	19%	+4%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	46%	37%	17%	+9%
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	40%	42%	18%	–2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
29 March 2024	Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	36%	48%	16%	–12%
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	24%	66%	10%	–42%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	65%	8%	–38%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	25%	63%	12%	–38%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	29%	65%	6%	–36%
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	27%	64%	9%	–37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	38%	36%	26%	+2%
3 February 2024	Long becomes Minister of Justice
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	38%	39%	23%	–1%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	40%	38%	22%	+2%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	37%	38%	25%	–1%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	45%	37%	18%	+8%
27 October 2022	Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	46%	37%	17%	+9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
19 August 2024	Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	35%	35%	30%	0%
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	34%	38%	28%	–4%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	38%	33%	29%	+5%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	28%	42%	30%	–14%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	37%	32%	31%	+5%
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	34%	32%	0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
29 August 2024	Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	31%	41%	28%	–10%
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	26%	43%	31%	–17%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	32%	40%	28%	–8%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	33%	38%	29%	–5%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	31%	39%	30%	–8%
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	39%	27%	–5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
4 July 2024	Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim
9–12 February 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,207	20%	70%	10%	–50%
11–14 August 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	23%	63%	14%	–40%
21–24 April 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	61%	12%	–34%
20–23 January 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	27%	57%	16%	–30%
4–7 November 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	27%	59%	14%	–32%
12–15 August 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	31%	54%	15%	–23%

Leadership performance ratings

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

NI political leaders

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Gavin Robinson ^DUP leader	Michelle O'Neill ^Sinn Féin VP - NI First Minister	Naomi Long ^Alliance leader	Colum Eastwood ^SDLP leader	Doug Beattie ^UUP leader	Jim Allister ^TUV leader	Emma Little-Pengelly ^(DUP) NI deputy First Minister	NI Executive	Lead
29 August 2024	Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
16 August 2024	Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
4 July 2024	Jim Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim
29 May 2024	Gavin Robinson is elected as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
10–13 May 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,316	46%	53%	46%	39%	44%	29%	52%	39%	1%
29 March 2024	Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
3 February 2024	Naomi Long becomes Minister of Justice
	Emma Little-Pengelly becomes deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland
	Michelle O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland
	Establishment of the new Executive
27 October 2022	Naomi Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive

UK and Ireland political leaders

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Simon Harris ^Taoiseach Ireland	Mary Lou McDonald ^Sinn Féin President	Chris Heaton-Harris ^NI Secretary of State	Rishi Sunak ^UK Prime Minister	Lead
5 July 2024	Hilary Benn becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
	Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
10–13 May 2024	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,316	36%	39%	20%	16%	3%
9 April 2024	Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach
17 December 2022	Leo Varadkar becomes Taoiseach
25 October 2022	Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
6 September 2022	Chris Heaton-Harris becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
	Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
7 July 2022	Shailesh Vara becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

See also

• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland

Footnotes

1. Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald, who is a Teachta Dála for Dublin Central in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature of the Republic of Ireland). O'Neill is the party's vice president and leads the party in Northern Ireland.^[1]
2. As "Party leader in the North"
3. Robinson sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Belfast East rather than in the Assembly.
4. Allister sits in the House of Commons as the MP for North Antrim rather than in the Assembly. Timothy Gaston is the sole TUV MLA in the Assembly
5. Hanna sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Belfast South and Mid Down rather than in the Assembly. Matthew O'Toole is leader of the SDLP in the Assembly.
6. People before People's leader is Richard Boyd-Barrett, who is a Teachta Dála for Dún Laoghaire in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (the legislature of the Republic of Ireland). Gerry Carroll is the sole People Before Profit MLA in the Assembly

References

1. Black, Rebecca (12 July 2023). "O'Neill urges people burning effigies of politicians to 'catch themselves on'". The Independent. Retrieved 4 June 2024.
2. Pogatchnik, Shawn (28 September 2022). "UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power". Politico. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
3. "NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes". BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
4. McClafferty, Enda; McCormack, Jayne (2 November 2022). "NI election date to be confirmed soon – Steve Baker". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
5. "Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue". BBC News. 19 January 2023. Retrieved 22 January 2023.
6. O'Carroll, Lisa (9 February 2023). "Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
7. Pogatchnik, Shawn (9 February 2023). "UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024". POLITICO. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
8. Elizabeth Piper and Sarah Young (1 February 2024). "UK unveils DUP deal to restore Northern Ireland government". Reuters.
9. Amanda Ferguson and Natalie Thomas (4 February 2024). "Northern Ireland appoints Irish nationalist as First Minister in historic shift". Reuters.
10. Carroll, Rory (29 March 2024). "Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as Democratic Unionist party leader". The Guardian. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
11. "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
12. Sproule, Luke (12 May 2022). "NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean?". BBC News. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
13. Simpson, Mark; Andrews, Chris (27 October 2022). "DUP blocks NI government as election call looms". BBC News. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
14. "Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Statement on Executive Formation". UK Government. 9 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
15. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9939/CBP-9939.pdf ^{[bare URL PDF]}
16. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/48/enacted ^{[bare URL]}
17. McCormack, Jayne (5 December 2022). "Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
18. McCormack, Jayne; Fox, Matt (9 November 2022). "Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
19. Hughes, Brendan (18 January 2023). "Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election". BelfastLive.
20. "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) (changed from Northern Ireland (Executive Formation)) Bill – Parliamentary Bills – UK Parliament".
21. "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022–23 – House of Commons Library".
22. "The Windsor Framework". Institute for Government. 27 March 2023.
23. Press Association (27 February 2023). "Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal". Belfast News Letter.
24. "DUP: No dissent within the party over Stormont boycott, says leader". BBC News. 5 October 2023.
25. "Stormont stalemate: Deadline to restore Northern Ireland Executive to expire". BBC News. 18 January 2024.
26. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9939/ ^{[bare URL]}
27. https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3672 ^{[bare URL]}
28. "Northern Ireland: New deal means goods will flow freely throughout UK – Jeffrey Donaldson". 30 January 2024.