Hurricane Oscar was a compact tropical cyclone, with the smallest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic, which caused moderate damage in eastern Cuba in late October 2024.[1] The fifteenth named storm and tenth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Oscar originated from a very long-lived tropical wave which moved off of the west coast of Africa on October 10. It did not undergo tropical cyclogenesis until October 19, due to adverse atmospheric conditions. On that same day, the compact storm had a round of rapid intensification and became a Category 1 hurricane. After peaking in wind intensity, Oscar remained steady in intensity as it moved slowly towards Cuba, making landfall late on October 20 with slightly weaker winds but at peak pressure intensity. Land interaction severely disrupted the small storm, and Oscar emerged north of Cuba as a minimal tropical storm with a poorly-defined center. Unfavorable conditions continued to hamper the small storm, and Oscar later dissipated on October 22 after opening into a trough.
Due to the rapid development of Oscar, preparations were sudden across the Greater Antilles. Hurricane watches and warnings were issued across the Turks and Caicos Islands, Southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba on October 19. Eight people were confirmed to have died as a result of Oscar, all in Cuba, which was amplified by a severe national power outage. As of December 8, damages are estimated to be at least USD$33.2 million.
Meteorological history
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
As early as October 4, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the potential for tropical cyclone formation from a tropical wave, which exited the west coast of Africa six days later.[2][3] That day, the NHC designated the wave as Invest 94L, related to a low pressure area with disorganized convection, or thunderstorms.[4] Moving westward, the system became better organized as it moved through the Cape Verde islands, developing gale-force winds and an elongated circulation. The NHC assessed the potential for development as high as 50%, but downgraded the potential on October 12 due to unfavorable environmental conditions.[5][6] For several days, the low continued westward across the Atlantic Ocean, producing only occasional thunderstorms due to dry air, and it opened up into a trough on October 16.[7] Two days later, the NHC assessed only a 10% chance for development, due to anticipated unfavorable conditions. At that time, the system was passing north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.[8] However, the thunderstorms became better organized,[9] rapidly consolidated north of Hispaniola,[10] and a circulation reformed on October 19.[11] At 15:00 UTC that day, the NHC classified the system as Tropical Storm Oscar while located just east of the Turks and Caicos islands.[12]
Upon its designation by the NHC, Oscar had a small central dense overcast fueled by hot towers, surrounded by well-defined rainbands. The storm moved westward, steered by a ridge to its north.[12] At 18:00 UTC on October 19, the NHC upgraded Oscar to hurricane intensity, just three hours after beginning advisories. This was based on observations from the Hurricane Hunters, which observed a very small well-defined eye with a diameter of only 3.45 mi (5.55 km).[13] A dropsonde into the eye observed wind gusts of 94 mph (152 km/h). On that basis, the NHC estimated peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). At its peak, Oscar had hurricane-force winds extending only 5.75 mi (9.25 km) from the center, and gale-force winds 35 mi (55 km) from the center.[14] At this point, Oscar was a very small storm with traits similar to thunderstorm clusters.[15] Early on October 20, the center of Oscar passed very near Grand Turk Island, before making landfall on Inagua.[16] During the turning operation towards Cuba, the eye expanded to a diameter of around 20 mi (32 km), as Oscar's track shifted towards the west-southwest and reached its lowest pressure of 986 mbar.[17][18] At 21:50 UTC on October 20, Oscar made a second landfall in eastern Cuba, near the city of Baracoa.[19]
After moving ashore eastern Cuba, Oscar quickly weakened into a tropical storm.[20] The circulation became disrupted over the mountainous terrain as its forward motion slowed.[21] A trough over the western Atlantic pulled Oscar northward, and the circulation emerged over water early on October 22. The storm was unable to regenerate due to stronger wind shear and dry air, and later that day Oscar dissipated near the Bahamas.[22] The remnants were then absorbed by a nearby extratropical cyclone, which then travelled northwards towards the Nova Scotia Peninsula, and made landfall on October 25 on the south coast of the peninsula and Newfoundland, with rainfall reaching up to 125 mm (4.9 in) predicted across some parts of Newfoundland.[23]
Forecast errors and distinctions
Philippe Papin of the NHC noted that Oscar "...kind of snuck up a little bit on us".[24] As the predecessor to Oscar made its way north of the Greater Antilles, models began to stop showing tropical development in their forecasts.[25]
Oscar was the smallest hurricane on record with a five-to-six-mile (8.0 to 9.7 km) wide hurricane-force wind field.[1] Due to Oscar's size, most satellites were unable to accurately measure its actual strength.[25]RADARSAT, a high-resolution Canadian satellites, showed that Oscar peaked around Category 2 or 3 strength prior to landfall.[25]
Preparations and impacts
Lucayan Archipelago
Hurricane Oscar moving onshore near Baracoa, Cuba on October 20, 2024 at peak pressure intensity.
Matthew Town experienced winds from the core of Oscar.[15] On Grand Turk, where the capital of the Turks and Caicos Islands is located, Oscar knocked down some trees and removed the roofs of at least one house. However, as there was a low tide, the hurricane caused minimal impacts in the islands.[30] A shelter in Inagua housed 24 people.[31]
The DRM Authority sent food items to the southern islands after Oscar had left.[32]
As Oscar neared Cuba, a station in Cape Maisí saw a peak gust of 103 km/h (64 mph).[37] Torrential downpours were recorded in Cuba, with preliminary reports in the province of Guantánamo stating that some places received more than 10 in (25 cm).[21] A station in Maisí saw 366 mm (14.4 in) or rainfall, while in Baracoa, 268 mm (10.6 in) was seen.[35] In Baracoa, waves produced by the hurricane breached the seawall, causing flooding along the city's coastline.[38] Oscar caused severe damage in eastern Guantánamo.[39] At least 2,282 homes were damaged, more than half of them with total roof collapses.[40] Severe flooding occurred in Baracoa, Imías, and Maisí. Dozens homes lost their roofs and many power lines were downed.[41][42] The rainfall and winds led to landslides, which also slowed the fixing of the blackout.[43] In the Caujerí Valley, 200 hectares (2.0 km2) of tomatoes were destroyed.[44] 6,500 cans of coffee grains, along with numerous amounts of bananas and beans, were lost. The Cadena River was flooded.[45] The Pozo Azul Dam reached 86% capacity while the Los Asientos Dam met capacity.[46] The former saw false rumors spread online about a possible collapse. The Cuban Army denounced the rumors.[46] Salt flats owned by the Salinera Company received serious damage from Oscar.[44] Eight people were killed from the storm:[47] six in San Antonio and one in Imías.[48][49] Officials estimate that they would need at least USD$33.2 million to support the recovery from the damage caused by Oscar.[50]
A ship was sent from Pajaritos, Veracruz, to Cuba, with 400,000 barrels of oil to alleviate the power crisis worsened by Oscar.[51]
Still recovering from Oscar, eastern Cuba was rattled by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake on November 10.[52]
Elsewhere
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