From 1922 to 2001, New England was usually regarded as a comfortably safe seat for the National Party, formerly the Country Party.[1] Only one Labor candidate has ever won the seat – Frank Foster at the 1906 election and again at the 1910 election, both times on small margins. Since then, the closest Labor has come to winning the seat was in the 1943 landslide, when the Country majority was pared back to an extremely marginal 1.1 percent. It was a marginal seat for most of the 1980s, but since the 1990s Labor has been lucky to get 40 percent of the two-party vote, and has frequently been pushed into third place.
Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[4]
Under the original redistribution proposal in 2015, the Australian Electoral Commission announced it intended to abolish Hunter. Electors in the north of Hunter would have joined New England.[5] Ultimately however, the Commission opted for a less radical proposal that saw Charlton abolished, Hunter pushed eastward to absorb most of Charlton's territory, and New England absorbing a few small areas in Hunter's north. Due to changing populations, overall New South Wales lost a seat while Western Australia gained a seat.[6]
Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of New England in the 2022 federal election. The winning candidate got over 50% of first preference votes, so this alluvial diagram is indicative only, and preference flows were not used to determine the final result. The preference flows were used to determine the two-candidate-preferred.
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