The timing of "fire season" in California is variable, depending on the amount of prior winter and spring precipitation, the frequency and severity of weather such as heat waves and wind events, and moisture content in vegetation. Northern California typically sees wildfire activity between late spring and early fall, peaking in the summer with hotter and drier conditions. Occasional cold frontal passages can bring wind and lightning. The timing of fire season in Southern California is similar, peaking between late spring and fall. The severity and duration of peak activity in either part of the state is modulated in part by weather events: downslope/offshore wind events can lead to critical fire weather, while onshore flow and Pacific weather systems can bring conditions that hamper wildfire growth.[3][4]
According to climate scientists, climate change increased the likelihood of the event by creating first a very strong rainfall (which resulted in more vegetation), and then a very strong drought (which dried the vegetation). The likelihood for such events increased by 31–66% from 1950. Previous climate models underestimated the risk, but even they said that a 3-degree temperature rise will increase the chances for such events 2 times in comparison to current conditions. Climate change also increases the intensity of winds, and reduces the amount of water available for stopping the wildfires.[6][7][8]
Scientists from the University of California made a fast evaluation, estimating that the difference between the average temperatures in 1980–2023 and the abnormally hot 2024 alone is responsible for 25% of the moisture deficit which was one of the causes of the wildfires. They mentioned that "Substantial anthropogenic warming occurred prior to this period, so our estimate of the effect of heat anomalies in 2024 is conservative". Their study is still not peer reviewed.[9]
Another analysis from ClimaMeter estimated that the weather conditions in the region when the wildfires begun were "up 5°C warmer, 3 mm/day (up to 15%) drier, and up to 5 km/h (up to 20%) windier" during the years 1987–2023 in comparison to the years 1950–1986. It was mainly due to climate change, while natural variability played only a small role.[10] Also as climate change made the wildfire season in California longer, it overlap more with the season of Santa Ana winds (October-January).[11]
Lack of preparation, cause of ignition
Following the fires, investigations began probing local utilities for lack of preparation, with a group of Pacific Palisades residents suing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for water shortages. The nearby Santa Ynez Reservoir had laid empty since February 2024, even though the LADWP was aware of the tremendous fire risk that the Santa Ana winds posed.[12] Officials posited a wide range of causes for the fires, with the cause of all four remaining under investigation. Anonymous officials reported that the Palisades fire appeared to be of human origin,[13] and the Los Angeles Police Department arrested three arsonists within a day at one point.[14] The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection stated that over 95% of past California wildfires have been started due to human activity.[15] Residents affected by the Eaton fire sued public utility Southern California Edison, alleging that sparking power lines had led to the fire.[16] Some experts also pointed to fireworks as a possibility, as a January 1 fire that burned about four acres had broken out in the same location as the Eaton Fire,[17] with The New York Times noting that several major wildfires in history have been linked to old blazes that had previously been put out.[18] The Los Angeles Fire Department does not typically patrol past fire locations to detect remaining embers.[19]
Effects
The wildfires destroyed houses of some of the richest man on California, destroying the "Billionaires beach" or "Carbon beach" in Malibu[20]
List of wildfires
The following is a list of fires that burned more than 1,000 acres (400 ha), produced significant structural damage, or resulted in casualties.
Evacuations forced; destroyed at least 6,051 structures and damaged 788 in Pacific Palisades, northwest of Santa Monica. Ten confirmed fatalities and four confirmed injuries. Third most destructive wildfire in California history. Associated with extremely powerful Santa Ana wind event.
Evacuations forced; destroyed at least 9,416 structures and damaged 1,064 in Altadena and Pasadena, making it the second most destructive fire in California history. Seventeen confirmed fatalities and seven confirmed injuries. Associated with extremely powerful Santa Ana wind event.
^Containment means that fire crews have established and secured control lines around the fire's perimeter. These lines are barriers, like trenches or cleared vegetation, designed to stop the fire's spread. Containment reflects progress in managing the fire but does not necessarily mean the fire is under control or out.
