2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election
The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi . Incumbent Republican governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley .[ 1]
Primary elections were held on August 8.[ 2] Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999 . It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican,[ 3] and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.
Background
This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi , a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999 .
This structure was referred to as Mississippi's version of the electoral college ; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well.[ 4] Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.[ 5]
A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators , all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party . In the 2020 presidential election , Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019 , narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood , who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis , and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal , both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley , was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.[ 6] [ 7]
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.[ 8]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.
Results
Results by county: >90%
80–90%
70–80%
60–70%
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Disqualified
Declined
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of June 9, 2023[ 35]
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Brandon Presley
$1,760,057
$773,134
$1,714,455
Results
Independents
Candidates
Withdrawn
Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive[ 10] (endorsed Presley, remained on ballot) [ 37]
Declined
General election
Predictions
Debate
Endorsements
Tate Reeves (R)
Executive Branch officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Organizations
Brandon Presley (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Phillip Baulch, mayor of Nettleton (2022–present)[ 57]
Hosea Bogan, Monroe County Supervisor[ 57]
Jackie Bradford, Scott County Supervisor[ 57]
Leah Brown, mayor of Sturgis (2021–present)[ 57]
James Dunn, Tunica County Supervisor[ 57]
Debra Mabry, Holmes County Supervisor[ 57]
Fred Magee, Holmes County Supervisor[ 57]
Reggie Moore, Leflore County Supervisor[ 57]
Buddy Palmer, Councilman for Ward 5 of Tupelo (Republican) [ 53]
Orlando Trainer, Oktibbeha County Supervisor[ 57]
Johnny Thomas, mayor of Glendora (1982–present)[ 57]
Chip Wood, Alderman for Ward 3 of Corinth (Republican) [ 53]
Roderick Woullard, Forrest County Supervisor[ 57]
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Tate Reeves (R)
Brandon Presley (D)
Other[ d]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [ 69]
August 20 – October 2, 2023
October 5, 2022
51.5%
42.0%
6.5%
Reeves +9.5%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Tate Reeves (R)
Brandon Presley (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[ 70] [ B]
October 19–20, 2023
601 (V)
± 4.0%
46%
45%
–
10%
Magnolia Tribune /Mason-Dixon [ 71]
September 27 – October 2, 2023
625 (LV)
± 4.0%
51%
43%
–
6%
Mississippi Today /Siena College [ 72]
August 20–28, 2023
650 (LV)
± 4.0%
52%
41%
1%[ e]
6%
Impact Research (D)[ 73] [ C]
August 6–9, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
46%
46%
–
8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[ 74] [ D]
July 7, 2023
–
–
49%
32%
–
19%
Impact Research (D)[ 75] [ C]
April 24–27, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
47%
44%
–
9%
Mississippi Today /Siena College [ 76]
April 16–20, 2023
783 (RV)
± 4.3%
49%
38%
7%[ f]
6%
Magnolia Tribune /Mason-Dixon [ 77]
March 6–10, 2023
625 (RV)[ g]
± 4.0%
46%
39%
–
15%
Mississippi Today /Tulchin Research [ 78] [ E]
January 21–25, 2023
500 (RV)
± 4.4%
43%
47%
–
10%
Mississippi Today /Siena College [ 79]
January 3–8, 2023
821 (RV)
± 4.6%
43%
39%
2%[ h]
14%
Impact Research (D)[ 75] [ C]
December 2022
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
49%
42%
–
9%
Hypothetical polling
Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent
Results
Swing by county
Democratic—+10-15%
Democratic—+5-10%
Democratic—+<5%
Republican—+<5%
Republican—+5-10%
Republican—+10-15%
Trend by county
Democratic—+20-25%
Democratic—+15-20%
Democratic—+10-15%
Democratic—+5-10%
Democratic—+<5%
Republican—+<5%
See also
Notes
^ a b c d Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 8%
^ Waller is a Republican, but media sources speculated that he might run as an independent.
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ "Someone else" with 1%
^ "Not going to vote" with 6%; "Someone else" with 1%
^ Additionally, "[a]ll indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election".
^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
References
^ "Republican Gov. Tate Reeves wins re-election in Mississippi" . NBC News . November 8, 2023. Retrieved December 12, 2023 .
^ "Mississippi elections, 2023" . Ballotpedia . Retrieved January 31, 2023 .
^ Leip, Dave. "Mississippi Election Results" . Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . Retrieved November 18, 2023 .
^ "How a Jim Crow law still shapes Mississippi's elections" . October 11, 2019.
^ "For the first time in state history, voters remove Jim Crow provision from Mississippi Constitution" . November 4, 2020.
^ Vakil, Caroline (January 23, 2023). "Democrats see Mississippi governor's race as ripe for an upset" . The Hill . Retrieved January 31, 2023 .
^ Lucas, Fred (April 21, 2023). "3 deep red state governors' races that could be surprisingly competitive in 2023 — and even expand Dem control" . Fox News . Retrieved May 3, 2023 .
^ Levine, Sam (January 8, 2022). "The racist 1890 law that's still blocking thousands of Black Americans from voting" . The Guardian . Archived from the original on February 26, 2024.
^ a b "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid" . Clarion Ledger . January 3, 2023.
^ a b "Candidate qualifying deadline passes and reveals slate of 2023 statewide candidates" . www.wlbt.com . February 1, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2023 .
^ "Mississippi doctor against vaccine mandate runs for governor" . www.wlbt.com . January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023 .
^ a b c Harrison, Bobby (October 16, 2022). "Gov. Tate Reeves' low poll numbers could embolden opposition in 2023" . Mississippi Today .
^ "Number of election qualifiers has trickled as 5 p.m. deadline approaches today" .
^ Pender, Geoff (December 21, 2020). "Gov. Tate Reeves straddling fences, catching flak from all quarters" . Mississippi Today . Mississippi News and Information Corporation. Retrieved February 8, 2021 .
^ Bakken, Bob (December 27, 2022). "Foster announces run for supervisor" .
^ "Ag Commissioner Andy Gipson announces re-election bid for 2023" . July 28, 2022.
^ Harrison, Bobby (August 4, 2022). "House in limbo as Speaker Philip Gunn weighs run for governor" . Mississippi Today . Retrieved September 29, 2022 .
^ "Mississippi Speaker of the House Philip Gunn announces he will not run for reelection" . The Clarion-Ledger . November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 11, 2022 .
^ a b "Bill Waller Jr. 'strongly considering' a primary challenge of Gov. Tate Reeves" . January 3, 2023.
^ "Ex-justice Waller will not run for Mississippi governor" . AP NEWS . January 31, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023 .
^ Vance, Taylore (December 17, 2022). "Secretary of State Michael Watson mulls move to oust Gov. Tate Reeves" . Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal . Retrieved December 20, 2022 .
^ Journal, TAYLOR VANCE Daily (January 25, 2023). "Michael Watson will run for re-election as secretary of state" . Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal . Retrieved January 25, 2023 .
^ Bonelli, Cam (August 15, 2022). "Auditor talks future" . Laurel Leader-Call . Shad White isn't planning a run for governor, but he will be running for reelection as state auditor.
^ Mississippi Today/Siena College
^ American Strategies
^ Latino, Russ (June 26, 2023). "Newly leaked poll put McDaniel up in Lt. Governor race, BUT…" . Magnolia Tribune . Retrieved June 23, 2023 .
^ Mississippi Today/Siena College
^ "2023 Republican primary results" . Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023 .
^ a b Hernandez, Rachel (January 12, 2023). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor" . WKRG . Retrieved January 12, 2023 .
^ a b Harrison, Bobby (February 17, 2023). "Democrats disqualify Brandon Presley's primary challengers for governor" . Mississippi Today . Retrieved January 12, 2023 .
^ Salers, Caleb (May 26, 2023). "Formerly disqualified Democratic gubernatorial candidate wins lawsuit against party, back on ballot" . Supertalk Mississippi . Retrieved May 27, 2023 .
^ Pittman, Ashton (June 13, 2023). "Presley Will Be Lone Democrat In Governor Primary, Court Rules" . Mississippi Free Press . Retrieved June 13, 2023 .
^ "Former congressional candidate Shuwaski Young preparing for 2023 statewide run as Democrat" . January 9, 2023. Young did tease his belief that Democrats will field a strong candidate to challenge Reeves for governor, an office that Young has said he is not seeking.
^ Crown, Kayode (January 10, 2023). "Shuwaski Young Launches Bid For Mississippi Secretary of State" . Mississippi Free Press . Retrieved January 12, 2023 .
^ "Report of Contributions and Dispursements" . Mississippi Secretary of State . June 9, 2023. Retrieved June 19, 2023 .
^ "2023 Democratic primary results" . Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023 .
^ "Gwendolyn Gray endorses Brandon Presley for governor" . WJTV . October 9, 2023. Retrieved October 9, 2023 .
^ Taylor, Jessica (October 23, 2023). "Mississippi Governor Moves From Likely To Lean Republican" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 23, 2023 .
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings" . Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ Cunningham, Eric (November 7, 2023). "Final 2023 Gubernatorial Ratings: Kentucky Moves to Leans Democratic, Mississippi is Likely Republican" . Elections Daily . Retrieved November 7, 2023 .
^ "Donald Trump endorses Gov. Tate Reeves ahead of Nov. 7 election" . Mississippi Today . October 31, 2023. Retrieved October 31, 2023 .
^ a b "Democrat Brandon Presley seeks big turnout in Nov. 7 bid to unseat Mississippi's Republican governor" . www.timesargus.com . October 29, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023 .
^ "Tate Reeves endorsed by Democrat-turned-independent Angela Cockerham" . www.supertalk.fm . October 27, 2023. Retrieved October 27, 2023 .
^ a b c d e "Governor Tate Reeves makes campaign stop in Pass Christian" . www.wxxv25.com . November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023 .
^ "Gulf Coast Business Council Political Action Committee Endorses Governor Tate Reeves" . www.wxxv25.com . October 11, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023 .
^ "Endorsements and claims in governor's race" . www.desotocountynews.com . September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023 .
^ "2023 MARPAC Endorsed Candidates" . msrealtors.org . Retrieved October 13, 2023 .
^ Lake, Richard (September 13, 2023). "Reeves draws business endorsement as Presley campaigns on coast" . WJTV 12 News. Retrieved September 16, 2023 .
^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF Grades Mississippi" . NRA-PVF . Archived from the original on September 11, 2023. Retrieved September 11, 2023 .
^ Owens, Mary (June 6, 2023). "SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Pro-Life Champion Gov. Tate Reeves for Re-election" . SBA Pro-Life America . Retrieved August 25, 2023 .
^ a b Bakken, Bob (May 9, 2023). "Presley endorsed by the Mississippi State Council Of Machinists" . DeSoto County News . Retrieved May 10, 2023 .
^ a b c Vance, Taylor (September 20, 2023). "Former Republican congressman endorses Democrat Brandon Presley for governor" . Mississippi Today . Retrieved September 20, 2023 .
^ Ganucheau, Adam (January 12, 2023). "Rep. Bennie Thompson endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race" . Mississippi Today . Retrieved January 13, 2023 .
^ a b c Latino, Russ (June 12, 2023). "National Democrats Line Up to Support Presley's Bid for Governor" . Magnolia Tribune . Retrieved June 28, 2023 .
^ a b c d e "Who are the donors behind Brandon Presley's big fundraising haul?" . magnoliatribune.com . November 3, 2023. Retrieved November 6, 2023 .
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Bakken, Bob (August 29, 2023). "Presley launches 'Rural Mississippi Counts,' rural leaders backing his campaign" . DeSoto County News . Retrieved September 16, 2023 .
^ " 'It is so different this year': John Grisham gives Brandon Presley supporters even more hope for an upset" . mississippitoday.org . November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023 .
^ White, Khristopher (October 9, 2023). "Gwendolyn Gray endorses Brandon Presley for governor" . WJTV12 News . Retrieved October 9, 2023 .
^ a b "SPLC Action Fund endorses Brandon Presley in Mississippi's governor's race" . Jackson Advocate News Service . May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 26, 2023 .
^ Bakken, Bob (October 12, 2023). "Presley earns the endorsement of the Central South Carpenters" . Desoto County News . Retrieved October 12, 2023 .
^ a b "Mississippi labor unions rally for Brandon Presley ahead of governor's race" . October 28, 2023.
^ "State's teachers union endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race" . Mississippi Today . June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023 .
^ Imes, Peter; Smith, Slim; Plair, Zack (May 13, 2023). "Our View: Presley is the clear choice for governor" . The Commercial Dispatch . Retrieved May 26, 2023 .
^ Jira, Violet (October 26, 2023). "From the editor's desk: Why The Daily Mississippian is making a political endorsement" . The Daily Mississippian . Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023 .
^ "Reeves Is OK, Presley Is Better" . www.gwcommonwealth.com . November 4, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023 .
^ "NEMiss.News endorses Brandon Presley: The only proven public servant running for Governor" . NEMiss News . September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 16, 2023 .
^ "For pro-life Mississippians, there's only one choice in November - Democrats For Life of America" . www.democratsforlife.org . Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023 .
^ Real Clear Politics
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon
^ Mississippi Today/Siena College
^ Impact Research (D)
^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
^ a b Impact Research (D)
^ a b Mississippi Today/Siena College
^ Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon
^ Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research
^ a b Mississippi Today/Siena College
^ "2023 Statewide Recapitulation Sheet" (PDF) . Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved November 22, 2023 .
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