The ABC's Antony Green called Aston for Labor at 8:16 PM AEDT, for the Labor candidate Mary Doyle.[2] The result was considered a historic upset by the media, as Aston had been regarded as a safe seat for the Liberals, and had been held by the party since the 1990 federal election.[3] It marked the first time in over 102 years that a government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election.
In November 2020, a Four Corners episode revealed that Tudge was engaged in an extramarital affair with one of his staffers, Rachelle Miller.[5] In December 2021, Tudge announced he would be standing aside as the Minister for Education after Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced an investigation into allegations made by Miller that Tudge had abused her in their relationship.[5] Miller received A$650,000 from the government as a settlement.[6] In April 2022, Morrison stated that Tudge "technically" was still part of the cabinet, however in May acting education minister Stuart Robert stated he had been working in Tudge's role for "12 months", six months before Tudge had announced he would stand aside.[7][8]
During the campaign for the 2022 federal election, Tudge stated he would happily return to being a minister if the coalition government was re-elected.[9] The seat became marginal at the 2022 election; the 2PP swing to Labor in Aston was 7.32%, significantly higher than the state-wide swing to Labor of 1.69%.[10][11] His Labor opponent was former union organiser Mary Doyle.[12] The Greens also contested the election and had a 3.2% increase in primary vote from the previous 2019 election. Other parties that contested Aston at the 2022 election were United Australia Party, One Nation, Liberal Democrats and TNL, and each of them achieved less than 10% of the primary vote.[13]
As minister for Human Services in 2016-2017, Tudge was involved in setting up the Robodebt scheme, later found to have been illegal.[14] The Albanese government set up a Royal Commission into the Robodebt scheme after taking office.[14] Tudge appeared before the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme on 1 February 2023 and denied he was responsible for seeking legal advice about the scheme's legality.[14] A week later, on 9 February 2023, Tudge announced his resignation as the member for Aston.[15]
The by-election was quickly labelled as key for the Coalition who were in opposition at the federal level and had performed poorly in recent Victorian elections.[16][17] As of the date of this election, the last time a government had won a seat from the Opposition at a by-election was the Kalgoorlie by-election in 1920.[18]
Candidate selections
On 17 February 2023, the ALP selected Mary Doyle as its candidate for the by-election. She had been the party's candidate against Tudge at the 2022 federal election and won preselection unopposed.[19]
On 21 February 2023, the Liberal Party selected Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the by-election. She was selected by the state party's administration committee, a decision taken to avoid the lengthy process of a members' ballot given the relatively short timeframe of the election.[20] If she was elected, Campbell would have been the first female Indian-Australian MP from the Liberal Party.[21] Other candidates for Liberal Party preselection included former state Liberal MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake, former Knox City mayor Emanuele Cicchiello, and oncologist and writer Ranjana Srivastava, who was endorsed by former premier of VictoriaJeff Kennett and former Minister for Health and Aged CareGreg Hunt.[20][22][23][24] News of Tudge's resignation had also prompted speculation that former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat of Kooyong at the 2022 election, would seek the Liberal Party endorsement for the by-election. However, Frydenberg declined to seek re-election, having since moved to the private sector.[10][25] Frydenberg endorsed Roshena Campbell.[26]
The Australian Greens selected environmental engineer Angelica Di Camillo who had stood for the Greens in Rowville for the 2022 Victorian state election.[30] She grew up in Rowville.[31]
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[32][33]
One Nation chose not to contest the by-election, with party leader Pauline Hanson stating she had made a "strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition".[40]
The Conservative Party, an unregistered party, endorsed volunteer community radio presenter Mark Gardner as a candidate but he did not end up contesting.[42]
Campaign
Election posters at a polling place, including one by the Liberals on the Labor government's cuts to local road fundingLabor's election poster campaigning on Peter Dutton's unpopularityA polling place for the by-election at Bayswater West Primary School
The Liberal Party campaigned on the rising cost of living and the withdrawal of funding to local road and transport projects under the new Albanese Labor government.[43] These projects included the Dorset Road extension, Wellington Road duplication, Napoleon Road duplication and the proposed Rowville railway line (also known as Monash Rail).[44][45]
Labor campaigned on Liberal leader Peter Dutton's unpopularity, and the unpopularity of the Liberal Party generally. Labor also highlighted Dutton's rhetoric against China in messaging to Chinese Australians.[28] The Labor Party also highlighted the fact that Campbell did not live in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne where the seat is located.
A week before the election, the state Liberal Party attracted controversy when one of its state MPs, Moira Deeming, attended an anti-transgender protest which was also attended by neo-Nazis.[46] The parliamentary leader of the state Liberal Party, John Pesutto, moved to expel Deeming from the party, but was unsuccessful.[47] Dutton was concerned that these events from the state party could impact the party's results at the by-election.[48][49]
The loss of Aston reduced the Liberal party to holding three out of the 26 federal seats in Melbourne, and six across the whole of Victoria. Labor increased their numbers to holding 25 seats across Victoria.[51]
Figures within and associated with the Coalition gave several reasons for the Liberal Party's unexpected loss. Federal opposition leader Peter Dutton stated he accepted responsibility for the Liberal's loss in Aston, but stated the party's fundamental principles would not change.[51]David Littleproud, leader of the National Party of Australia, stated that "character assassination" of Dutton had hurt the Liberal's campaign.[51] Littleproud also stated the Victorian Liberal Party were doing "everything they could locally there to trash their own brand" by fighting internally on whether to expel Moira Deeming.[51] Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto disputed this, stating "It was a federal by-election, with local issues in it, and none of the issues surrounding the Victorian parliamentary party were being raised".[52] Former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull stated that the by-election loss was caused by the federal Liberal party moving too far to the right.[52] Speculation was raised that Dutton would be challenged for the leadership of the party, however that did not occur.[52] In December 2023, the Liberals announced they had preselected former mayor of the City of Knox Manny Cicchiello to be their candidate at the next Australian federal election.[53]
Premier of VictoriaDaniel Andrews stated that the Liberal party was "a nasty, bigoted outfit and people have worked them out, and that might be why they keep losing".[52] Prime minister Anthony Albanese cited Dutton's strategy of negativity as a reason for the Liberal party's loss.[52]
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