2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

November 8, 2016 (2016-11-08)
All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Democratic Republican Last election 1 1 Seats won 1 1 Seat change Popular vote 386,627 357,447 Percentage 51.93% 48.01% Swing 0.40% 9.51%
District results County results Democratic   50–60%   60–70% Republican   50–60%   60–70%

The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on June 14.

Overview

Statewide

Popular vote Democratic   51.93% Republican   48.01%

House seats Democratic   50.00% Republican   50.00%

By district

Results of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine by district:

District	Democratic		Republican		Others		Total		Result
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
District 1	227,546	57.99%	164,569	41.94%	276	0.07%	392,391	100.0%	Democratic hold
District 2	159,081	45.17%	192,878	54.77%	224	0.06%	352,183	100.0%	Republican hold
Total	386,627	51.93%	357,447	48.01%	500	0.07%	744,574	100.0%

District 1

2016 Maine's 1st congressional district election

Nominee Chellie Pingree Mark Holbrook Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 227,546 164,569 Percentage 58.0% 41.9%

U.S. Representative before election Chellie Pingree Democratic Elected U.S. Representative Chellie Pingree Democratic

See also: Maine's 1st congressional district

Incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+9.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Chellie Pingree, incumbent U.S. representative

Results

Democratic primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Chellie Pingree (incumbent)	28,143	100.0
Total votes			28,143	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Holbrook, professional counselor^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Ande Smith, United States Navy veteran and attorney^[3]

Debate

2016 Maine's 1st congressional district republican primary debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Republican
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Mark Holbrook	Ande Smith
1	Jun. 7, 2016	WMTW (TV)	Paul Merrill	[4]	P	P

Results

After a recount, Holbrook was declared the winner with a margin of 57 votes.^[5]

Republican primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mark Holbrook	10,360	50.1
	Republican	Ande Smith	10,303	49.9
Total votes			20,663	100.0

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chellie Pingree (D)	Mark Holbrook (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire[6]	September 15–20, 2016	266 LV	± 6.0%	64%	22%	2%	12%
SurveyUSA[7]	September 4–10, 2016	382 LV	± 5.1%	57%	37%	–	7%
University of New Hampshire[8]	June 15–21, 2016	248 LV	± 4.5%	56%	34%	–	10%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chellie Pingree (D)	Ande Smith (R)
University of New Hampshire[8]	June 15–21, 2016	248 LV	± 4.5%	55%	34%

Endorsements

Chellie Pingree (D)

Organizations

• Equality Maine^[9]

Results

Maine's 1st congressional district, 2016^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Chellie Pingree (incumbent)	227,546	58.0
	Republican	Mark Holbrook	164,569	41.9
	Libertarian	James J. Bouchard (write-in)	276	0.1
Total votes			392,391	100.0
	Democratic hold

District 2

2016 Maine's 2nd congressional district election

Nominee Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 192,878 159,081 Percentage 54.8% 45.2%

U.S. Representative before election Bruce Poliquin Republican Elected U.S. Representative Bruce Poliquin Republican

See also: Maine's 2nd congressional district

Incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was elected with 47% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+2.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bruce Poliquin, incumbent U.S. representative

Results

Republican primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bruce Poliquin (incumbent)	19,252	100.0
Total votes			19,252	100.0

Democratic primary

After the 2014 election, Cain indicated she was interested in running against Poliquin in 2016.^[11] In December 2014, Cain met with Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Leader of the House of Representatives, to discuss her potential candidacy.^[12] On March 3, 2015, Cain announced that she would be running for the seat.^[13]

Bangor City Councilors Joe Baldacci and Ben Sprague were mentioned as potential Democratic candidates.^[14] Jeff McCabe, the Majority Leader of the Maine House of Representatives, indicated that he might run against Poliquin in 2016, but later said that he would not do so.^[15]

Troy Jackson, the former Majority Leader of the Maine Senate, who lost to Cain in the 2014 Democratic primary election, had said he might run as an independent candidate,^[16] but he elected to run for his former Senate seat instead.^[17]

Candidates

Nominee

• Emily Cain, former state senator and nominee for this seat in 2014^[13]

Withdrawn

• Joe Baldacci, Bangor City Councilor and brother of former Governor of Maine and U.S. Representative John Baldacci^[18]

Declined

• Troy Jackson, Democratic National Committee member, former sate senator, candidate for the seat in 2014 (running for state senate)^[13][17]
• Jeff McCabe, Majority Leader of the Maine House of Representatives^[15]
• Ben Sprague, Bangor City Councilor^[13]

Endorsements

Emily Cain

U.S. Representatives

• Nancy Pelosi, Minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives (D-CA)^[19]

Organizations

• EMILY's List^[20]
• Equality Maine^[9]

Results

Democratic primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Emily Cain	19,003	100.0
Total votes			19,003	100

Independents

Withdrawn

• Mike Turcotte, adjunct professor at Eastern Maine Community College^[21]

Declined

• Troy Jackson, Democratic National Committee member, former sate senator, candidate for the seat in 2014 (running for State Senate)^[16][17]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 19, 2016

Endorsements

Emily Cain (D)

U.S. Senators

• George J. Mitchell, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader (D-ME)^[22]

U.S. Representatives

• Nancy Pelosi, Minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives (D-CA)

Organizations

• EMILY's List
• Equality Maine^[9]

Newspapers

• Bangor Daily News^[23]
• MaineToday Media newspapers: Portland Press Herald, Kennebec Journal, Morning Sentinel^[24]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Emily Cain (D)	Bruce Poliquin (R)	Undecided
University of New Hampshire[25]	October 20–25, 2016	341 LV	± 3.8%	43%	42%	11%
Normington Petts (D-Cain)[26]	October 2–3, 2016	400 RV	± 4.9%	46%	45%	9%
University of New Hampshire[27]	September 15–20, 2016	231 LV	± 6%	35%	45%	15%
SurveyUSA[28]	September 4–10, 2016	397 LV	± 5%	45%	50%	6%
University of New Hampshire[8]	June 15–21, 2016	227 LV	± 4.5%	40%	41%	12%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[29]	Tossup	November 7, 2016
Daily Kos Elections[30]	Tossup	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg[31]	Tossup	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32]	Lean D (flip)	November 7, 2016
RCP[33]	Tossup	October 31, 2016

Results

Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2016^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bruce Poliquin (incumbent)	192,878	54.8
	Democratic	Emily Cain	159,081	45.2
	Independent	Jay Parker Dresser (write-in)	224	0.0
Total votes			352,183	100.0
	Republican hold

References

1. "Tabulations for Elections held on June 14, 2016". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved July 22, 2016.
2. "Brunswick Republican files to challenge Pingree in 2016". November 20, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2015.
3. "North Yarmouth attorney will try to unseat Maine's U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree - The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. January 11, 2016. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
4. YouTube
5. Shepherd, Michael (June 29, 2016). "Holbrook confirmed GOP primary winner in Maine's 1st District — Politics — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine". Bangordailynews.com. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
6. University of New Hampshire
7. SurveyUSA
8. University of New Hampshire
9. "Election 2016 | EqualityMaine". Archived from the original on October 4, 2016. Retrieved October 4, 2016.
10. "Tabulations for Elections held in 2016". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved December 12, 2016.
11. "Democrats push for Cain vs. Poliquin 2016 rematch in Maine's 2nd District - Central Maine". Central Maine. November 15, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
12. "Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer Are Recruiting Emily Cain to Run Again". At the Races. Archived from the original on December 8, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
13. Shepherd, Michael (March 3, 2015). "Cain seeks 2016 rematch for Maine's 2nd District seat". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved March 4, 2014.
14. Michael Shepherd (January 11, 2015). "Maine's Bruce Poliquin dives into budget, energy issues". Central Maine. Retrieved January 12, 2015.
15. Michael Shepherd (February 4, 2015). "Skowhegan's McCabe says he won't run for Congress in 2016". Central Maine. Retrieved February 7, 2015.
16. "What kind of a congressman will Maine's Bruce Poliquin be? - Central Maine". Central Maine. November 9, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
17. Shepherd, Michael (January 4, 2016). "Democrats McCabe, Jackson announce Maine Senate bids". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved January 4, 2016.
18. "Joe Baldacci Drops Out of Congressional Race | Maine Public Broadcasting". News.mpbn.net. February 5, 2016. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
19. Cousins, Christopher (June 10, 2015). "Nancy Pelosi to boost Emily Cain's rematch against Bruce Poliquin in big-money fundraiser". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
20. Moretto, Mario (June 9, 2015). "Young Republican star wields Taylor Swift against Paul LePage". Bangor Daily News. Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved June 9, 2015.
21. Mitchell, Jennifer (May 14, 2016). "Candidate Proposing Nuke Plants for Maine Drops out of Congressional Race". MPBN. Retrieved June 26, 2016.
22. "Former Maine Senator endorses Emily Cain for Congress". WCSH. September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 23, 2016.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
23. "Cain's pragmatism, openness would better serve Maine's 2nd District in Congress". October 20, 2016.
24. The Editorial Board (October 23, 2016). "Our View: Vote Emily Cain in 2nd District to make Congress work again".
25. University of New Hampshire
26. Normington Petts (D-Cain) ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
27. University of New Hampshire
28. SurveyUSA
29. "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
30. "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
31. "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
32. "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
33. "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.

External links

• U.S. House elections in Maine, 2016 at Ballotpedia
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets